September 3rd, 2020, 04:41
Posts: 6,630
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Joined: Apr 2010
Also, as per the tally it seems consensus that Bobs play was bad. My vote isn't really doing much, so
Cyneheard
I second what others already pointed out. Right now, I would vote for: naufragar, Bob, Cyneheard, SD. And as nauf seems out of the running for today, Bob is already running away with votes, lets tell us more Cyneheard about your votes and play so far.
September 3rd, 2020, 04:44
Posts: 8,244
Threads: 30
Joined: Jun 2004
(September 3rd, 2020, 04:36)Serdoa Wrote: History:
Tally:
Bobchillingworth (9): Commodore, scooter, El Grillo, pindicator, AdrienIer, Lewwyn, superdeath, GeneralKilCavalry, Serdoa
superdeath (4): Chevalier Mal Fet, naufragar, Charriu, Cyneheard
Cyneheard (3): Gaspar, Meiz, Rowain
Lewwyn (1): Bob
Please check if everything is correct.
you missed pindi moving from bob to Adrien
September 3rd, 2020, 04:44
Posts: 7,602
Threads: 75
Joined: Jan 2018
You missed this: pindicator switching from Lewwyn to Adrien I guess.
(September 2nd, 2020, 22:59)pindicator Wrote: El Grillo, I do not care for this Bob train either. The one time I recall we nabbed him as a day 1 wolf it was something Lewwyn caught early and stayed on him often. On that game I remember arguing against the Bob lynch- I don't feel I have a good read on him is what I mean by including that. I asked Lewwyn for his take on that wagon, but I expected something more substantial from Lewwyn in response. Not just jumping in for fun, which was the vibe I got off the post.
What I do feel has hit on my scumdar is the timing of some of AdrienIer's votes. Id rather have heard him answer my question first, but I need to go to bed soon and he hasn't come back yet.
His vote to Bob
(September 2nd, 2020, 18:46)pindicator Wrote: (September 2nd, 2020, 17:53)AdrienIer Wrote: Now while SD is new and may not know the RB meta, Bob certainly should know. It may only be that he's too busy right now, but it's not like his earlier posts were amazing.
It's not the best vote but I need to sleep and will reread once or twice in the morning.
Now I'm interested in your thoughts on Cyneheard.
Was right after extolling to superdeath to look for all the little clues here
(September 2nd, 2020, 17:51)AdrienIer Wrote: Superdeath the idea is that in theory we have approximately 4/17 chances of lynching wolves today. It's super low. The only thing we have to help us and raise our odds is that wolves are only pretending to look for wolves, and by doing so usually make forced arguments or conveniently follow on a bandwagon they don't care for. Those are signs (not the only ones too) that we're all looking for (or for the wolves among us) pretending to look for. If you're not doing that it doesn't help the village do better than those 4/17 odds, and if we let you do it it incentivises wolves not to participate either giving them less chances of appearing unnatural in their posts.
It's a lot of pressure and a lot of hit and miss, but RB has a higher rate of wolf lynch on D1 than those 4/17 (or whatever the odds are on day 1 of a particular game) by forcing everyone to hunt for any microscopic clue. So we need you to play that game of hit and miss, or the village's chances get much lower.
But that is not what AdrienIer has done! Instead he has gone from easy low- content pick of superdeath to easy low-content pick of Bob. What first caught my attention is that both came in quick response to other people being put up. It was right after Rowain pushed Commodore and Comm was getting some attention that he voted superdeath. And now with Cyneheard getting attention he's suddenly on the Bob wagon despite it not being a dig for every crumb type of vote. But regardless of that or whether that has anything to do with anything, I don't like that he is buddying up to one low content person, taking him under his wing, and then jumping right over to another while saying we have to put in the effort to find tells. The actions don't match the words.
September 3rd, 2020, 04:45
Posts: 6,256
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Joined: Jul 2014
Ok I got to reread Bob and Cyneheard, I'm staying on Bob. Cyneheard had some good posts looking into people, Bob basically hasn't.
I'll be back this afternoon with reads on the bigger posters (I hope before deadline, normally it'll be ok).
September 3rd, 2020, 04:46
Posts: 8,244
Threads: 30
Joined: Jun 2004
History:
Tally:
Bob (7): Commodore,scooter,El Grillo, AdrienIer,Lewwyn, SD,GKC
SD (4): CMF,naufragar,Charriu,Cyneheard
Cyneheard (4): Gaspar,Meiz,Rowain,Serdoa
AdrienIer (1): pindi
Lewwyn (1): Bob
not voted (0):
September 3rd, 2020, 05:10
Posts: 6,630
Threads: 47
Joined: Apr 2010
Ok, lets contribute more than just my vote:
Cyneheard history:
#10: Joke-vote for scooter
#22: Forum feature explanation
#70: Vote on pindicator, because the wagons on GKC and nauf made too much sense and he wants to know why pind joined those wagons. Also a roundabout defense of my self-vote (I think, I have a hard time parsing that post)
#146: Some reads on different players. but mostly "not sure what to make of it", which kinda defeats the purpose of reads in the first place
#153: Some attack on AdrienIer for not being active enough / reading enough? After he defended himself that he has not that much time? I would expect more understanding in that case.
#155: Game question / clarification
#246: Vote on SD, mainly for him SD not providing any content
#249: Some game explanations for SD. Which I get, SD seem to miss the gist of many things, but the vote is kept on him. If you are apparently believing him that he is just new and doesn't know better, why keep the vote on him?
#276: Replying to Lewwyn questioning exactly what I felt about #249. His response is: SD has to start playing the game so I turned up the heat with my vote.
Additionally he provides some reads, but mainly that pindi is suspicious (for early game votes) and Bob for the obvious
#280: Replying to Gaspar, explaining the vote on SD again.
Ok, so going through this (and seeing AdrienIers post on them both just now) I agree with him that Cyneheard has more content than Bob. I do still question the whole SD debacle, but it is (similar to Lewwyn) not so much the action but the tone of it all. The reason I have not gone for SD after he came back is that he sounded to me like genuinely overwhelmed. That does not mean he is not a wolf (as Cyneheard also points out) but it is a clear indication imo that you can't read anything from his actions alone. Basically he would do that no matter his role, so it is a null-tell.
So, did you really believe something would shake out of this Cyneheard?
Also would you care to give your reads on say: Me, naufragar, Lewwyn - if possible without "I'm not sure", because we all are not (well, except for naufragar being a wolf).
September 3rd, 2020, 06:27
Posts: 8,022
Threads: 37
Joined: Jan 2006
Mobile for the rest of the day period, so no fancy quoting or formatting.
I agree with much of what Serdoa says, which is weird. But basically people im ok with hanging today are Cyneheard, pindicator and Bob. Probably in that order.
I've got some dirt on my shoulder, can you brush it off for me?
September 3rd, 2020, 06:37
Posts: 3,045
Threads: 2
Joined: Aug 2006
Rereading Commodore's posts and I also think he's had a very "easy" game so far. I would assume more aggressive scumhunting based on his personality. Would be my pick #2 with Pindicator probably being the third.
September 3rd, 2020, 07:00
Posts: 2,981
Threads: 25
Joined: Jun 2012
(September 2nd, 2020, 19:09)Chevalier Mal Fet Wrote: He read like authentic superdeath, and, frankly, from having read his game reports, guys, I think superdeath is an honest guy. He doesn't really have it in him to deceive (boy will my face be red when he's a wolf). So I believe him.
PB45 begs to differ.  In fact, I come to the same conclusion for opposite reasons. I think wolf Superdeath would be super keen.
(September 2nd, 2020, 17:58)Bobchillingworth Wrote: lynch me if you will, but I'll caution the village to pay attention to who eagerly jumped on bandwagon which was both dumb and carried no risk.
We've talked about this line from Bob. The bolded bit rings true to me. I've excerpted from the voting log when the Bob train starts.
Gaspar switches from pindi to Bob
Commodore switches from Gaspar to Bob
scooter switches from Commodore to Bob
El Grillo switches from Commodore to Bob
Pindi switches from Lewwyn to Bob
Lewwyn switches from SD to Bob
Cyneheard switches from pindi to SD
Lewwyn switches from Bob to Cyneheard
AdrienIer switches from SD to Bob
Lewwyn switches from Cyneheard to Bob
Gaspar switches from Bob to Cyneheard
SD switches from GKC to Bob
GKC switches from naufragar to Bob
pindi switches from Bob to AdrienIer
Meiz switches from AdrienIer to Cyneheard
Rowain switches from Commodore to Cyneheard
Serdoa switches from naufragar to Bob
Serdoa switches from Bob to Cyneheard
At one point Bob had 9 votes (the majority of the village). Those 6 back to back votes at the beginning also stand out. I doubt that the entire wolf pack hopped on Bob simultaneously but I'd bet in those six we find some wolves. I'm also noticing a hop off Bob (which can be innocent, just as a vote for him can be). I'm content enough to vote Cyneheard, partly for the reasons others have mentioned (odd interactions with Superdeath, early weaker posts), partly because I suspect wolves pushed Bob and want to jump off to leave village holding the bag, so getting Cyneheard up there might provoke a reaction.
A very minor point that has gone stale: way back at the start of the game, I had a town lean on Rowain, and I said in that big attack on GKC/Serdoa ( #61 ) "My read of Rowain is town. Consequently I think the people who have been taking passive aggressive jabs at him (like GKC) are suspect." One of the people taking those jabs that I didn't mention was Cyneheard:
(September 1st, 2020, 15:56)Cyneheard Wrote: The wagons on them [i.e. GKC and naufragar] almost make too much sense - that they're obviously being careless so let's get them because it's too easy! I want to hear more from Rowain and pindicator about why they went for their wagons. I said this point has gone stale because I haven't had time to reread Rowain. At the time, I saw Cyneheard's argument as a misread, and it raised my eyebrows.
There is no way to peace. Peace is the way.
September 3rd, 2020, 07:22
Posts: 2,981
Threads: 25
Joined: Jun 2012
Unrelated to the previous: Gaspar, a couple times you've said things like "I agree with Lewwyn/Serdoa, which is weird." I don't know your style. Do you mean weird because of your past history or weird because of stuff in game?
There is no way to peace. Peace is the way.
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