Serdoa's SPOILER-Thread: I am legend?

[Serdoa]

I'm really confused by the picks of my opponents. I'm also not sure that I can work through the missing civs in the form I did the first bunch before I make my pick, I'll try my best.

As for the picks of my opponents:

Noble+Gaspar: Byzantine

Ok, I admit, I do get this pick. I've detailed my stance on Byzantine in my civ rating-post and as I mentioned there, one thing that is an issue for Byzantine are opponents that try to hinder them early on before they get Cataphracts. As I also mentioned I don't think that is an issue with this map, as it should be big enough. In fact, it should be just the right size that Knights is around the time you might consider an attack. If they are my neighbor, I have to make sure to be prepared. Not to defend against an attack, but to make me such an unappealing target that they do look somewhere else. If not, it might easily us both being out of the running. 

That said, while I do see it's strength I still believe Byz is overvalued in the community. Well, not overvalued ... valued for its definite assets but I believe which Civilization you play has much less influence overall, so I would have expected to see leader-picks first. That leads directly in our 2nd pick:

Rusten+Hitru: Aztec

While Noble and Gaspar choose a civ that I did rank rather good (and might underestimate), this pick I have a really hard time to understand. Why not pick a leader first, when you can get whatever you want right now? Why instead pick Aztec? The UU will not see much play on this map-size (and isn't all that great to begin with), the UB is nice just for the cost-reduction, but I'd say there are enough better ones out there + you could just now pick FIN/ORG or EXP/ORG and on the way back take Aztec. I doubt it would have been gone by then. They might get their desired combination with ORG still - or maybe they have several and can be certain one will be left. But even then... Maybe it was the starting tech combo. Myst / Hunting doesn't exist often and the others aren't that hot either. If you want that combo, Aztec might be indeed your best choice. Though with Byz first pick I could see HRE instead.

Well, I think for both teams I can reasonably well put together why they made the choice they made. Now I have to concentrate on my own choice. But first I need to finally get some sleep.

[Serdoa]

For those that may only look in this thread: I picked FIN/PRO. Not certain that is the best overall pick, I actually had PRO excluded already from the shortlist. But Nobles pick indicates aggressive tendencies, SD has them as far as I gathered always, Lewwyn isn't known to be a pacifist either, so really, the defensive part of PRO might be a boon here. That it does boost commerce as well is just a welcome bonus. Also with the river as is and a coastal capital (I think it is obvious to plant in place) trade routes should be available early. 

I still try to get around to make the second part of my civ-list and I also intend to make an overview in post 1 of all my analysis-posts. Just a few other things first for my WW-game.

[Serdoa]

Ok, lets see what has happened since my pick. (Yes, I know, I still need to give an overview about the other civs). The "baffling" of me continues:

Lewwyn - Spain
Superrdeath & GeneralKilCavalry - China
Bobchillingworth - Hannibal of Maya

Spain gets the Conquistador as UU, a better Cuirassier, though better here means more attack against Melee and keeping terrain defense bonuses. That was a Knight it seems and was changed to instead replace Cuirassier? If so, that Melee-bonus is really not doing much as at the point in the game that you can build Cuirassiers, no one will defend with Melee or use them by and large. And if they do, they are so far back, that you'd win anyway. The defense bonus is nice, but I don't think it matters all that much - yes, you can easier make quick attacks without having to keep slow one-movers with you for defense, but still, that doesn't seem that hot.

The UB is the Citadel, a Castle-replacement. You get more XP for Siege and Water units. That is quite good (10 XP Cannon anyone?) and with UB not obsoleting ever I'm sure it will help deter late game aggression.

Starting techs Myst + Fishing. Makes sense with probably mostly similar starts. Also if nothing changed it seems to be the only civ with this starting tech combination.

All in all, a pick I think I understand but I wonder if that is really the strongest pick that was out there.

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China. That seems to be a superdeath pick to be honest. At least from all what I read about him till now. I don't think the techs, the UB nor the UU is all that great. I don't see him using it offensively (well, no, I see him do that, just not it working out). Pavilion is also something that helps more in upsetting your neighbors than with winning. Overall I really think that is a weak pick. Lewwyns I can see as a possible late-game attacker or mid-game defender (with collateral). But this? What do you believe to get out of it? England would be better, Arabia would be better. Picking your leader first would be better as no one would have picked that civ anyhow...

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Hannibal of Maya

UU: Holkan, Spearman-replacement. That will not be relevant at all
UB: Ball Court, Colosseum-replacement. 2 happy more than normal. Helpful when you have happy-issues.
Myst / Mining: Good starting tech combo.

Hannibal (FIN/CHA): I did consider Hannibal myself. FIN is obvious and CHA helps if you have happy-issues.

Yes, that looks like a match made in heaven. CHA boosts production of Colosseums, you get one with Maya that is clearly better than the standard one. I do think that is overdoing it though. You get already 1 happy from CHA and another one for a (half-price) monument. And another for a half-price Colosseum. Now you get another 2... We start with 4 IIRC (palace 5) and with that you bring it up to 9. I believe we all start with one happy-resource, so that is 10 at least. And at the point you reach that, I expect you to have at least one or two more happy online, so probably 12+. Most cities will not have that issue.

Later on that might be a strong combo though when we grow cities to the cap and beyond. I might insofar make it sound worse than it is. All in all, certainly a good pick.

Maybe I am not baffled at all by the picks, but I hope it helps dragging readers into actually reading these long posts

[Charriu]

The conquistador replaced the Cuirassier even back in BtS

[Kurumi]

Ok, lets see what has happened since my pick. (Yes, I know, I still need to give an overview about the other civs). The "baffling" of me continues:

Lewwyn - Spain
Superrdeath & GeneralKilCavalry - China
Bobchillingworth - Hannibal of Maya

Spain gets the Conquistador as UU, a better Cuirassier, though better here means more attack against Melee and keeping terrain defense bonuses. That was a Knight it seems and was changed to instead replace Cuirassier? If so, that Melee-bonus is really not doing much as at the point in the game that you can build Cuirassiers, no one will defend with Melee or use them by and large. And if they do, they are so far back, that you'd win anyway. The defense bonus is nice, but I don't think it matters all that much - yes, you can easier make quick attacks without having to keep slow one-movers with you for defense, but still, that doesn't seem that hot.

The UB is the Citadel, a Castle-replacement. You get more XP for Siege and Water units. That is quite good (10 XP Cannon anyone?) and with UB not obsoleting ever I'm sure it will help deter late game aggression.

Starting techs Myst + Fishing. Makes sense with probably mostly similar starts. Also if nothing changed it seems to be the only civ with this starting tech combination.

All in all, a pick I think I understand but I wonder if that is really the strongest pick that was out there.

The defense bonuses are huge in my opinion. Not only there's a certainty you'll find a hill to get that 25% bonus, finding a forest gives whooping 50% in a forest. That's for the offensive - but attacking Spain seems like a nightmare with Conquistadors defending cities, because Conquistadors can fight Cavalry thanks to their defensive bonuses. And there's another thing: Cuirassiers are units that are built and built in bulk, so there's no wacky strategy to go for them or use them, you just have buffed Cuirassiers. They're better at defending against Mounted units than Pikes! And, those Pikes that are at least -somewhat- capable of fighting Cuirs, are absolutely not capable of fighting Conquistadors (worse odds than Knights!)

[Serdoa]

The conquistador replaced the Cuirassier even back in BtS

I really did not know, I was just going by the Civilopedia-entry, that talks about it being a Knight replacement.

[Serdoa]

Ok, lets see what has happened since my pick. (Yes, I know, I still need to give an overview about the other civs). The "baffling" of me continues:

Lewwyn - Spain
Superrdeath & GeneralKilCavalry - China
Bobchillingworth - Hannibal of Maya

Spain gets the Conquistador as UU, a better Cuirassier, though better here means more attack against Melee and keeping terrain defense bonuses. That was a Knight it seems and was changed to instead replace Cuirassier? If so, that Melee-bonus is really not doing much as at the point in the game that you can build Cuirassiers, no one will defend with Melee or use them by and large. And if they do, they are so far back, that you'd win anyway. The defense bonus is nice, but I don't think it matters all that much - yes, you can easier make quick attacks without having to keep slow one-movers with you for defense, but still, that doesn't seem that hot.

The UB is the Citadel, a Castle-replacement. You get more XP for Siege and Water units. That is quite good (10 XP Cannon anyone?) and with UB not obsoleting ever I'm sure it will help deter late game aggression.

Starting techs Myst + Fishing. Makes sense with probably mostly similar starts. Also if nothing changed it seems to be the only civ with this starting tech combination.

All in all, a pick I think I understand but I wonder if that is really the strongest pick that was out there.

The defense bonuses are huge in my opinion. Not only there's a certainty you'll find a hill to get that 25% bonus, finding a forest gives whooping 50% in a forest. That's for the offensive - but attacking Spain seems like a nightmare with Conquistadors defending cities, because Conquistadors can fight Cavalry thanks to their defensive bonuses. And there's another thing: Cuirassiers are units that are built and built in bulk, so there's no wacky strategy to go for them or use them, you just have buffed Cuirassiers. They're better at defending against Mounted units than Pikes! And, those Pikes that are at least -somewhat- capable of fighting Cuirs, are absolutely not capable of fighting Conquistadors (worse odds than Knights!)

Thanks Kurumi I see what you are getting at. I'm not sure how many forests will be around at that time, but I absolutely agree with you that attacking Spain is a nightmare. Fortunately, I don't intend to do this. Lewwyn being unhappy that I took FIN/PRO indicates to me that he wanted it, which makes me believe that he has a similar take on the map than I do: Big enough that war is not happening early and it might not be necessary to happen at all. If we both are neighbors, I can see us both not angering the other and just letting each other live in peace. Especially as superdeath and NoGas are seeming to go for a more aggressive strategy, so we will have them to worry about.

[BRickAstley]

Ok, lets see what has happened since my pick. (Yes, I know, I still need to give an overview about the other civs). The "baffling" of me continues:

Maybe I am not baffled at all by the picks, but I hope it helps dragging readers into actually reading these long posts

You click-baited me!

[Serdoa]

Just a quick remark: I take back what I said about superdeaths pick. If he has a similar start to mine, Agri / Mining is golden... and China the only civ with that combination. 

Also, at least with starts like these, I am not sold that Myst as starting tech is great. Yes, after 60 turns you'll be in front in raw commerce of course, but this starts get soo awkward with it... like, you need ALL starting techs, and you need them all very soon after the game started. I've decided to forgo Fishing already, because even though I'd get a 4/0/3 tile in play, 4/0/3 is not good enough at the start. That tile is 3rd best but it costs 30 hammer to bring online and a tech that isn't otherwise necessary, so basically opportunity cost of at least 59 beakers to research whatever you didn't get by taking Fishing. Instead farming the floodplains gives a 4/0/1 tile for 8 worker turns. That isn't nothing either, but going for the workboat first would delay your worker already, so in would be even less that you really lose. You also would start later to chop and whip, bringing your next cities online later... And that is with FIN. Without we would talk about a 1 commerce difference. 

Conclusion: China would be a nice pick, I'm dumb for not doing micro-plans earlier. On that note: Maybe some other civ could get that tech-combo? It really seems odd to me, that we have 34 civs and 15 possible tech-combos and yet instead of having each pair at least twice, we have Wheel/Agri five (!) times but only once Agri/Mining.

/rant over

[Serdoa]

Another remark: I will pick up posting and explaining my thoughts again soon, but for now just a quick look at my Russia pick and why I made it: 

a) Mining / Hunting let me do an elaborate micro-plan that I can't do if I start Myst. That is solely because of this start, else I would value Myst higher, it definitely catches up quickly, even here at around T50 I would be equal in techs (+have Myst, so being in front really). But it would delay my start. Reasoning:

Clam only is a 4/0/3 tile. As explained earlier together with the investment necessary (work boat, tech) this is too expensive, so we put Fishing on the backburner. 

Deer first leads to a 5/1/0 tile. That would be great, but growing to 2, what do I work? The best tile at that point is a 2/1/1 wheat or 3/0/1 floodplains. So in total 7/2/1 - or 9 foodhammers. And due to the lay of the land, you can't improve Wheat and Deer before you have grown to 2. Instead those tiles are far enough away that together with the forests in between it really screws up any kind of efficient micro.

Wheat first? That gives a 5/1/1 tile AND lets me with a second pop a 3/1/0 deer till I can improve that. So total 8/2/1 -> 10 foodhammers. 

Going through these iterations, trying different things (workboat first, worker first, 2 workers before growth, ...) it became clear that there is no other sensible approach than Wheat first. After that, it becomes muddy. Chopping would be best, but to do so without lost worker-turns (when the worker has nothing to do) needs Agri / Mining. As written earlier, only China comes with them and they were already taken. I should have made my micro-plans earlier and realize that but oh well. I think in the end it comes down to 1 turn difference, I can live with that. 

So, this left me with deciding what else. Mining is necessary for a quick BW, so what to combine with it was the last question. Myst does come out ahead in commerce of course, but it delays several builds. I believe that getting the other cities up and running is worth more than those beakers. But that is just feel. Anyhow, it was scratched, so that left Hunting and The Wheel as combination with Mining. As I need to get Agri first for the Wheat, I can't get Hunting second, that would again delay BW too much. So, that leads to Hunting at the natural choice. 

Looking at the civs with this combination, I had before already decided that Russia was the best. I believe the UB is ok (a few beakers, a few hammers depending on what you have in the city and need) and the UU could help with aggression and defense.