WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[scooter]

Yeah, if Bob gets saved last-minute so we can lynch a villager, I'm going to have some strong day 2 thoughts about a couple people who seemed determined to save him.

What if Bob gets lynched and turns out a villager?

What makes you sure that Cyneheard,Adrien (or naufr) are villagers?

If Bob turns out to be a villager, bummer, but if we're going to lose a villager, I'd rather lose one that is actively making us worse. The way I look at it is our odds at random of hitting a wolf day 1 are low - maybe 20-30% depending on the allocation. Given that they can talk to each other and coordinate, it's lower than that. So Bob is IMO by far the most ideal target because he's either a caught wolf or an anti-town villager. Some of these other players might be more of a loss if they are villagers and get lynched.


I'm not so sure about any of them! I just think some of the jumping with no real reasoning to it is odd, and it's creating an environment that gives a lot of wolf cover.

[Commodore]

Massive crosspost.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

I don’t buy the adrien train here doesnt feel as strong as nauf, bob, or cyne, in order of most to least scummy - too late to start a nauf train but I am extremely suspicious still.

[Lewwyn]

Two things:

1) Who is determined to save him?

2) I think its very counter productive to try and make people afraid of voting for what they feel is best.

1) Well it's interesting that Gaspar was the first vote on Bob right after I was the first to point out Bob looked suspect, and then after Bob got into a lynchable position, suddenly he "doesn't like the way the train formed on him" and starts looking for other options, despite Bob showing up in the middle of this and engaging in blatantly anti-town behavior?


2) You're right, and I should have worded that differently. But I don't love how much cover we're giving wolves right now either.

Scooter if you think Gaspar is a wolf trying to save Bob, but Now he's on Cyne, How about coming to vote for Adrien?

[scooter]

Two things:

1) Who is determined to save him?

2) I think its very counter productive to try and make people afraid of voting for what they feel is best.

1) Well it's interesting that Gaspar was the first vote on Bob right after I was the first to point out Bob looked suspect, and then after Bob got into a lynchable position, suddenly he "doesn't like the way the train formed on him" and starts looking for other options, despite Bob showing up in the middle of this and engaging in blatantly anti-town behavior?


2) You're right, and I should have worded that differently. But I don't love how much cover we're giving wolves right now either.

Scooter if you think Gaspar is a wolf trying to save Bob, but Now he's on Cyne, How about coming to vote for Adrien?

What's the case for Adrien? I have a hard time seeing it. I'm open to it, but I'm struggling to see what we gain from keeping Bob around.

[Lewwyn]

Two things:

1) Who is determined to save him?

2) I think its very counter productive to try and make people afraid of voting for what they feel is best.

1) Well it's interesting that Gaspar was the first vote on Bob right after I was the first to point out Bob looked suspect, and then after Bob got into a lynchable position, suddenly he "doesn't like the way the train formed on him" and starts looking for other options, despite Bob showing up in the middle of this and engaging in blatantly anti-town behavior?


2) You're right, and I should have worded that differently. But I don't love how much cover we're giving wolves right now either.

Scooter if you think Gaspar is a wolf trying to save Bob, but Now he's on Cyne, How about coming to vote for Adrien?

What's the case for Adrien? I have a hard time seeing it. I'm open to it, but I'm struggling to see what we gain from keeping Bob around.

He's been very smooth throughout the day, just under the surface only really engaging with everybody here at the end of the day. I also don't agree with his Pindi insistence. I can't go through it all in detail right now.

[Rowain]

If Bob get lynched and he turns wolf, I think we need to carefully look at who switched to save him. If he turns village,   I suspect that at least one of my fellow train members is a wolf, and we might want to look who undermined the Cyneheard train that was rolling along.

So you think Cyneheard is a wolf if Bob turns out innocent?

[pindicator]

Two things:

1) Who is determined to save him?

2) I think its very counter productive to try and make people afraid of voting for what they feel is best.

1) Well it's interesting that Gaspar was the first vote on Bob right after I was the first to point out Bob looked suspect, and then after Bob got into a lynchable position, suddenly he "doesn't like the way the train formed on him" and starts looking for other options, despite Bob showing up in the middle of this and engaging in blatantly anti-town behavior?


2) You're right, and I should have worded that differently. But I don't love how much cover we're giving wolves right now either.

Scooter if you think Gaspar is a wolf trying to save Bob, but Now he's on Cyne, How about coming to vote for Adrien?

What's the case for Adrien? I have a hard time seeing it. I'm open to it, but I'm struggling to see what we gain from keeping Bob around.

I think that his extolling of superdeath to play

Superdeath the idea is that in theory we have approximately 4/17 chances of lynching wolves today. It's super low. The only thing we have to help us and raise our odds is that wolves are only pretending to look for wolves, and by doing so usually make forced arguments or conveniently follow on a bandwagon they don't care for. Those are signs (not the only ones too) that we're all looking for (or for the wolves among us) pretending to look for. If you're not doing that it doesn't help the village do better than those 4/17 odds, and if we let you do it it incentivises wolves not to participate either giving them less chances of appearing unnatural in their posts.
It's a lot of pressure and a lot of hit and miss, but RB has a higher rate of wolf lynch on D1 than those 4/17 (or whatever the odds are on day 1 of a particular game) by forcing everyone to hunt for any microscopic clue. So we need you to play that game of hit and miss, or the village's chances get much lower.

is at odds with how he had been playing, which was namely putting his votes on the easy low-energy bandwagons. I think it's a slip that he really is putting a lot of effort in but in a scum fashion and not a town one.

[Serdoa]

AdrienIer:

#5: Joke
#39: Requesting information why I don't want to vote Lewwyn.
#44: Renewing his question as I didn't fully get it the first time.
#143: Just chiming in, no content. Says he will re-read the 15 pages before commenting. (9:47)
#144: Votes SD, because of SDs vote without reason and without giving reason when asked (10:10)
Also Rowain is good because he asks questions and forces people to talk
scooter is also good because he forces people to talk, but could be wolf (notice the difference despite nearly identical description of behavior)

I also have to point out that re-reading 15 pages in 23 minutes seems quite fast. Was the start though, so maybe possible.

#152: Time constraints discussion with Cyneheard
#193: nauf feels town to him, stays on SD because SD hasn't yet commented and he wants to keep the pressure on
#195: Feels the need to clarify that he wants SD to participate but with no guarantee that he will change vote if SD does

This does sound like a wolf that wants to keep all options open. Not that he keeps his options open, but that he writes it down so he can point back to it and tell people that he stated that from the beginning. Covering his bases.

#260: game-theory / explanation towards SD
#261: vote for Bob, because Bob should know that his play will get him lynched
#301: Reaction to pinds vote on him, that boils down to "How dare you, I have no time for this right now" and the explanation that yes, his votes were not well thought out.
#307: He stays on Bob, because Cyneheard has more content in his posts
#332: Comments on Charriu pointing out the same I do above about post nr. 301. That comment boils down to "He is wrong, I did do stuff, all accusations against me are baseless" - looking back up, that is different to before when he admitted his thoughts were not well thought out but he had time constraints. Now instead the attack is baseless. Which of the two is it?
#340: ....


I don't have time left for the rest. Conclusion: That all does not look too good, low content, contradictions...

[scooter]

He's been very smooth throughout the day, just under the surface only really engaging with everybody here at the end of the day. I also don't agree with his Pindi insistence. I can't go through it all in detail right now.

I don't love throwing out random one-off votes with 0 impact on the result like that. That does look a bit like alibi building.