WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Charriu]

So first of all, because I totally forgot that after the shock from the night result. GG to all we've lost.

I went through my notes and through everything new and here are my thoughts about people right now. Do note that I started writing this with #450 being the last post and as I know you all by now, you most likely already added 50 more posts after that.

Trust-list:

Serdoa: Has a big conflict vs nauf, which is just heating up again today. Now I don't trust nauf either for reason I will explain further down. I also notices that he has similar suspicions about other players, just like I have. All in all I have a good feeling about him. Voted for a wolf on day 1, which is at least something.

Chevalier: His initial big summary post (#122) was very constructive. He doesn't post a lot, but those post have substance. Because he puts so much effort into those posts I do believe him to be town. I can also relate to the time issues, which I had and most likely will have too. Now he left his vote on SD the first day, being the only one voting for him at the end, but I'm willing to leave that to time issues and generally uncertainty at day 1.

Rowain: I have a good feeling about him. Voted for one of the persons that I don't trust, too. I also see that he shares my suspicion of Meiz' pindicator vote.

pindicator: Started the bus on Adrien, whom you will find on a different list. I said in my other posts that I do find pindicator trustworthy. I like the tone, I like the questions and I like the vote. Town feel so far.

Distrust-list:

naufragar: As of now there are a lot of suspicious posts from day 1 from him and it feels like he's just continuing that streak like with things like backtracking #445 . I admit that this post isn't his worst, but it leaves me still distrusting him.

Superdeath: Got under pressure day 1 and responded with a weak defense and nothing more. Now I said in the past that I found this honest. What keeps him on the list is him suspecting Chevalier, whom I trust. I know Chevalier voted for you, but he already explained that vote. Superdeath is also one of the surviving Bob voters.

Adrien: Nothing has changed for me here. I'm still very suspicious of him. In addition he also voted Bob instead of Cyneheard to safe himself.


Undecided:

Lewwyn: Writes a lot, which makes my life as a time-constrained person harder, but in a good way. Jumped around to a lot of people the first day pressuring all of them. Unfortunately that makes it harder for me to judge him. What I found suspicious was hist (literally) last minute vote for Cyneheard. Now he's vote was justified in the end, but still those last minute votes have a bad taste in my mouth. In the end that's the reason why I put him into my undecided category right now.

Commodore: He answered the last questions I directed at him honestly and I do want to believe him. Him still distrusting Adrien was one of the things I wanted to hear from him. The only thing that keeps him on this list is his constant defending of newbies, which I admire and definitely is in character for him. But there's still this little spark of doubt, which I can't shake of. Town-lean for me though. Noteworthy: One of the Bob-voter survivors.

scooter: Initially on my trust list, but since has moved to the undecided. Reasons are his last minute explanations on day 1 and voting for Bob. I remains to be seen, how things develop here.

meiz: I had him on my Trust-list at the beginning for the pure meta-reason that he was a substitute. His vote for pindicator almost at the beginning of day 2 and with the surprising result from the night, definitely threw me off and I found that suspicious so far. That accusation just came so sudden for me.

GKC: Had him on my distrust list on day 1, but since then made his way here, with his posts getting more calm and reasonable. What keeps him on the undecided list is his vote for Bob.

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn, what do you think about AdrienIer?

I'm pretty heavily scum on him, but I'm working through the what if of him being town. I think the voting record doesn't help him. He was on Bob, started feeling some heat, got on you, and was always able to reasonably justify going back onto Bob at any time to "save his life". The assessment I had of his play earlier hasn't changed much.

The early votes for him are early and I'm not sure how they'll shake down. How many people are going to stick to him? How many wolves are testing the waters voting for him whether he is a wolf or not? How many wolves are trying to build an early train so they can hop off and suggest another target?

[Charriu]

Finished reading everything new. Nothing so far that changes what I have written. But I noticed that after I was so happy to have finished writing my post I total forgot to vote. I think it's no surprise that I'm still voting for Adrien

[Lewwyn]

Finished reading everything new. Nothing so far that changes what I have written. But I noticed that after I was so happy to have finished writing my post I total forgot to vote. I think it's no surprise that I'm still voting for Adrien

You said you were locked into adrien at the end of the day yesterday, who would be the next person you would vote for after adrien right now?

[pindicator]

Lewwyn, what do you think about AdrienIer?

I'm pretty heavily scum on him, but I'm working through the what if of him being town.  I think the voting record doesn't help him. He was on Bob, started feeling some heat, got on you, and was always able to reasonably justify going back onto Bob at any time to "save his life". The assessment I had of his play earlier hasn't changed much.

The early votes for him are early and I'm not sure how they'll shake down. How many people are going to stick to him? How many wolves are testing the waters voting for him whether he is a wolf or not? How many wolves are trying to build an early train so they can hop off and suggest another target?

Why did you switch to Cyneheard at the end?

[Charriu]

Finished reading everything new. Nothing so far that changes what I have written. But I noticed that after I was so happy to have finished writing my post I total forgot to vote. I think it's no surprise that I'm still voting for Adrien

You said you were locked into adrien at the end of the day yesterday, who would be the next person you would vote for after adrien right now?

My list is:

1. Adrien
   
2. nauf
   
3. Superdeath
   

But so far I don't see a reason to change that now, but the day is still young and things may change.

[pindicator]

Lewwyn, what do you think about AdrienIer?

I'm pretty heavily scum on him, but I'm working through the what if of him being town.  I think the voting record doesn't help him. He was on Bob, started feeling some heat, got on you, and was always able to reasonably justify going back onto Bob at any time to "save his life". The assessment I had of his play earlier hasn't changed much.

The early votes for him are early and I'm not sure how they'll shake down. How many people are going to stick to him? How many wolves are testing the waters voting for him whether he is a wolf or not? How many wolves are trying to build an early train so they can hop off and suggest another target?

Why did you switch to Cyneheard at the end?

To clarify, why Cyneheard over Bob?

[Serdoa]

So, should I comment now or do you come back later with actually anything that is not - yet again - misconstrued? Because what you ... forget ... to mention - not to say deliberately left out - is that I had gone through all Bob posts, voted him with good reasoning AND then 11 minutes later voted Cyneheard. At that point, Bob had 9 votes and in my post voting for Cyneheard I expressly mention that my vote on Bob does not change anything, that I would rather have you lynched but it doesn't seem likely to happen and so I want to pressure Cyneheard in some answers.

Basically: How can I be one of the wolves hopping from Bob to Cyneheard because Bob became a safe lynch, when I literally was on Bob for 11 minutes while he had already 8 votes and was clearly leading?

And just let me mention that as well: My vote put Cyneheard at 4, equal to SD. Without that vote, or one on you or SD instead, there would have been likely no discussion about Cyneheard, but rather if it is better to lynch a quiet newbie or an unwilling vet. So, would you like to accuse me for

a) trying to drive discussion?
b) voting for a wolf when he was not in a dangerous position?
b) voting for a wolf and putting him in a dangerous position?

Basically, what you think is innocent play I think is wolfy: I won't criticize your post on Bob for not reading him as village. Plenty of people said similar. You vote him for the common reasons, but then you take the vote tally, where it looks like Bob has 9 votes, and the next highest (Superdeath) has 4. (I made the same miscount in my post: Pindi is off Bob, so Bob's at 8.) 9 is way too high, so (this is my interpretation, as you like to point out) you realize you can and should hop off. With that many votes on Bob and given how prickly Bob has been (a no-no around here), it's quite likely he hangs. As you say, you're on him for 11 minutes before hopping off to Cyneheard, so that he talks more, in your words.

Ok, this is getting frustrating to respond to. You again write "you realize you can and should hop off". That indicates you believe I searched a way out of that vote for Bob - but I had just made that vote, something I did have no reason to do if I would then have to search a way to get off him. Simply put, hoping you understand: The timing makes no sense for what you stated to be true. If I had been earlier on Bob and would search a way out, your reasoning would at least be logical, but that's not the case.

Maybe consider for a second that as a somewhat competent player, I would realize that Bob has enough votes already and putting mine on top will not make him reconsider if the other votes don't already do, so instead I try to maximize town-gain by getting someone else to talk? What is exactly what I stated when I made my Cyneheard vote...

You then follow up that post with your reasons for Cyneheard here, making sure to note that he has more content than Bob.

"making sure to note" is another interesting way to phrase. May I ask if you would like to challenge the conclusion I had made? Or do you actually agree that Cyneheard had more content? If so, why do you try to make it sound as if I did something wrong by pointing that out? I do not know who is a wolf before the swing from the gallows, so yes, I will point out good and bad play.

I believe (and again I'm interpreting) that you voted Bob because he was the wolf bus target, tallied the vote and realized that the Bob bus was too crowded, and you hopped off to Cyneheard who was weaker but nowhere near dead (7 votes for Bob, 4 each for Superdeath and Cyneheard), so if the time ever came, you had that vote history in your pocket.

Ok, lets get this straight. You believe that

a) the wolves coordinated to bus Bob
b) didn't keep track how many votes he had
c) one of them voted for Bob and realized afterwards that their bus-target was already crowded
d) and moved therefore on to a wolf-buddy
e) which put that wolf-buddy back in discussion

That's your story? So the wolf-pack is highly coordinated but also incompetent? If you were a villager, I would tell you to start thinking logical and not try to make the pieces fit the story you have already devised, but I don't think that makes any sense at this stage.

naufragar

(Coincidentally, this is why I don't quite buy Scooter's caveat (which is not to speculate about Scooter himself). I think Bob was so comfortably dead that the wolves wouldn't have had to fret about the lynch hitting the number 2.)

You should maybe "think" by looking at the vote-tally of the end of D1. You might realize that Bob was far from certain at the end of the day. 6/17 is not anywhere close to "comfortably". But again, you have first devised your story and now try to fit pieces into it, instead of actually looking at the pieces and fit them together.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

So, should I comment now or do you come back later with actually anything that is not - yet again - misconstrued? Because what you ... forget ... to mention - not to say deliberately left out - is that I had gone through all Bob posts, voted him with good reasoning AND then 11 minutes later voted Cyneheard. At that point, Bob had 9 votes and in my post voting for Cyneheard I expressly mention that my vote on Bob does not change anything, that I would rather have you lynched but it doesn't seem likely to happen and so I want to pressure Cyneheard in some answers.

Basically: How can I be one of the wolves hopping from Bob to Cyneheard because Bob became a safe lynch, when I literally was on Bob for 11 minutes while he had already 8 votes and was clearly leading?

And just let me mention that as well: My vote put Cyneheard at 4, equal to SD. Without that vote, or one on you or SD instead, there would have been likely no discussion about Cyneheard, but rather if it is better to lynch a quiet newbie or an unwilling vet. So, would you like to accuse me for

a) trying to drive discussion?
b) voting for a wolf when he was not in a dangerous position?
b) voting for a wolf and putting him in a dangerous position?

Basically, what you think is innocent play I think is wolfy: I won't criticize your post on Bob for not reading him as village. Plenty of people said similar. You vote him for the common reasons, but then you take the vote tally, where it looks like Bob has 9 votes, and the next highest (Superdeath) has 4. (I made the same miscount in my post: Pindi is off Bob, so Bob's at 8.) 9 is way too high, so (this is my interpretation, as you like to point out) you realize you can and should hop off. With that many votes on Bob and given how prickly Bob has been (a no-no around here), it's quite likely he hangs. As you say, you're on him for 11 minutes before hopping off to Cyneheard, so that he talks more, in your words. You then follow up that post with your reasons for Cyneheard here, making sure to note that he has more content than Bob. I believe (and again I'm interpreting) that you voted Bob because he was the wolf bus target, tallied the vote and realized that the Bob bus was too crowded, and you hopped off to Cyneheard who was weaker but nowhere near dead (7 votes for Bob, 4 each for Superdeath and Cyneheard), so if the time ever came, you had that vote history in your pocket.

(Coincidentally, this is why I don't quite buy Scooter's caveat (which is not to speculate about Scooter himself). I think Bob was so comfortably dead that the wolves wouldn't have had to fret about the lynch hitting the number 2.)

Lewwyn gets town-points;
Oh, wait he doesn't because before the post he got town-points for, he had not mentioned all possible meta-constellations;
But wait, he still gets town points for now, I guess because of the meta-uncertainty?

Covering all bases...

Not sure if this is a serious attack, but I'll respond to it because I apparently can't resist bait.

Lewwyn was one of the first voters (maybe the very first?) on a Cyneheard train. This was a serious attack and not a love tap. Cyneheard turned out to be a wolf. So: Cyneheard acts wolfy->Lewwyn really challenges him on it->Cyneheard turns out to be a wolf seems to give pretty strong town points to Lewwyn.

However, if there are two scum teams, wolf Lewwyn could have been jumping on something wolfy that Cyneheard did, hoping that Cyneheard was a wolf-looking villager, and just got lucky to hit a rival pack. I assumed in my earlier post that there was 1 scum team, which was an unfounded assumption. I made a mistake and would rather quickly correct myself than leave it up there for someone to grab. And apologies to the people who dislike meta-arguments.

Serdoa because I still mean what I say. I'll reread the Adrien/Pindicator stuff, so I can contribute to the current conversation.

Every post you make makes it seem like you know something everyone else doesn't.

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn, what do you think about AdrienIer?

I'm pretty heavily scum on him, but I'm working through the what if of him being town.  I think the voting record doesn't help him. He was on Bob, started feeling some heat, got on you, and was always able to reasonably justify going back onto Bob at any time to "save his life". The assessment I had of his play earlier hasn't changed much.

The early votes for him are early and I'm not sure how they'll shake down. How many people are going to stick to him? How many wolves are testing the waters voting for him whether he is a wolf or not? How many wolves are trying to build an early train so they can hop off and suggest another target?

Why did you switch to Cyneheard at the end?

To clarify, why Cyneheard over Bob?

So by the end of the day I really wanted to lynch adrien. I tried to get people to switch over including scooter, but he made it clear he wasn’t going to do that. As we got down to the end I could see the adrien lynch wasnt going to happen and I was very soured on bob given the people on the bob vote most notablely  adrien and scooter. I was hoping Rowain would see what I saw at the very end and switch over to cyne with me. 

Between Bob and cyne, I felt Bobs I reaction was a 50/50 on him being town or scum, the fact that it was so easy also made me feel more mislynchy. I almost swapped onto cyne before I went to bed, but decided to stay on Bob and see what would happen overnight and then switch onto cyneheard closer to the lynch so that there would be more momentum on him. In particular I was thinking this because Cyne was very scummy in not as obvious way. It was a very wolfy and opportunistic thing, and I felt the defense was extremely weak. I felt like cyne was much less obvious and more of a caught wolf while bob was just... bob.

I also went into the final hours thinking adrien, nauf, cyne and Bob were people I would want lynched. As I said Bob fell off faster with the people on him. IMO the wolves are spread out over the voting, but if in fact adrien is a wolf, I could see 2-3 wolves being on Bob. When it got down to the end I saw my vote probably wasn’t going to matter as much unless Rowain switch with me, and Rowain has shown that he will do that in the past, so I thought it worth it.