WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Rowain]

@Lewwyn My switch wouldn't have changed anything. Both would be at 6 votes with Bob being first and dead.

[Lewwyn]

@Lewwyn My switch wouldn't have changed anything. Both would be at 6 votes with Bob being first and dead.

I wasn’t sure what the vote was exactly at the time, but in my mind there was a chance.

[scooter]

So that latest Naufragar post raised my eyebrows in the same way it seemingly did for GKC. Serdoa was basically the reason Cyneheard was on the chopping block yesterday. I'm not clearing anyone, but he's in my top 2-3 most likely villagers at this point. Such a strange post.

Between Bob and cyne, I felt Bobs I reaction was a 50/50 on him being town or scum, the fact that it was so easy also made me feel more mislynchy.

I mean, I felt about 50/50 too on Bob, but those are great odds on day 1! I'll flip that coin every single time. It was so easy because nobody coalesced on an alternative. He only got 1/3 of the votes, which is super low for a lynch. Yet, when I tried to hold people's feet to the fire the other day to push people to vote meaningfully, you got mad about it. You can't have it both ways. I'm totally down for Adrien today, but I trusted my gut rather than throw out 2 days of info for a last-minute dogpile because another player whose alignment I didn't know wanted me to. I'll put it this way - if Bob came up wolf, I was 100% targeting you or Gaspar today. Sorry that I was wrong on Bob, but I still think it was the best choice given the limited info. The info has changed, so now my vote is on Adrien.

[Lewwyn]

Scooter, how do you feel about commodore? You voted for him yesterday and then sort of dropped off and both of you ended up voting for Bob. I called you out about the threat of the next day, but actually you posted that after commodore said we were trying to save Bob. How do you read comma behavior at the end of the day there and overall?

[scooter]

Scooter, how do you feel about commodore? You voted for him yesterday and then sort of dropped off and both of you ended up voting for Bob. I called you out about the threat of the next day, but actually you posted that after commodore said we were trying to save Bob. How do you read comma behavior at the end of the day there and overall?

Well... I don't know how to say this other than Commodore looks bad for the same reasons AdrienIer and I do. The night actions make all 3 of us look pretty bad for similar reasons. I think there's a high chance one of us is a wolf. I know I'm village, and there were several people pretty sold on Adrien even before all the night actions, so that's why my vote is there right now. But yes, I'm skeptical of Commodore now. My vote yesterday on him was mostly to pressure him into giving more detailed thoughts. That was early enough that I didn't really have that strong of a feeling on him, but things have changed.

[Lewwyn]

Scooter, how do you feel about commodore? You voted for him yesterday and then sort of dropped off and both of you ended up voting for Bob. I called you out about the threat of the next day, but actually you posted that after commodore said we were trying to save Bob. How do you read comma behavior at the end of the day there and overall?

Well... I don't know how to say this other than Commodore looks bad for the same reasons AdrienIer and I do. The night actions make all 3 of us look pretty bad for similar reasons. I think there's a high chance one of us is a wolf. I know I'm village, and there were several people pretty sold on Adrien even before all the night actions, so that's why my vote is there right now. But yes, I'm skeptical of Commodore now. My vote yesterday on him was mostly to pressure him into giving more detailed thoughts. That was early enough that I didn't really have that strong of a feeling on him, but things have changed.

I'm not you really answered my question about how you feel about Commodore. More that you admit you, comm and Adrien are suspicious based on night actions rather than based on what you've posted in the last two days.

Your earlier post:

I haven't gone through past posts or anything, but my current inclination based on all this is to lynch AdrienIer. He would have been my #2 choice last round, and the night actions make him look worse. Chevalier is another I'm curious about with his seeming throwaway vote, though it would be awfully sloppy for two wolves to both do that on the same target. I did think it was weird overall that we didn't coalesce onto the top 2-3 targets on Day 1, which I think is generally what you want to do as the village. Bob getting lynched with only 6/17 votes feels pretty bad.

You are voting for Adrien based off what? The night actions? Why not Comm then instead? Adrien at least has the I was voting for my life defense. Also if you are voting for him apparently not for any of his posts but his actions. Who would you vote for based on their posts? I haven't seen anything from you about what you actually think would make someone scum based on your read of their posting. In fact, in this post, in the first three paragraphs you 1) talk about meta and the night actions, 2) Say a few good town bets 3) speculate about what wolves would do. I'm not seeing anything from you in the way of actualy pin downable suspicions.

[Lewwyn]

Hey scooter, at the end of day 1 I asked you about joining us on Adrien. You said:

Two things:

1) Who is determined to save him?

2) I think its very counter productive to try and make people afraid of voting for what they feel is best.

1) Well it's interesting that Gaspar was the first vote on Bob right after I was the first to point out Bob looked suspect, and then after Bob got into a lynchable position, suddenly he "doesn't like the way the train formed on him" and starts looking for other options, despite Bob showing up in the middle of this and engaging in blatantly anti-town behavior?


2) You're right, and I should have worded that differently. But I don't love how much cover we're giving wolves right now either.

Scooter if you think Gaspar is a wolf trying to save Bob, but Now he's on Cyne, How about coming to vote for Adrien?

What's the case for Adrien? I have a hard time seeing it. I'm open to it, but I'm struggling to see what we gain from keeping Bob around.

What's the case? But today you said:

I haven't gone through past posts or anything, but my current inclination based on all this is to lynch AdrienIer. He would have been my #2 choice last round, and the night actions make him look worse. Chevalier is another I'm curious about with his seeming throwaway vote, though it would be awfully sloppy for two wolves to both do that on the same target. I did think it was weird overall that we didn't coalesce onto the top 2-3 targets on Day 1, which I think is generally what you want to do as the village. Bob getting lynched with only 6/17 votes feels pretty bad.

My bold. He would have been #2? But you didn't know the case? How do you reconcile this?

Additionally I'd like to wonder about the rest of the quote where you say its weird we didn't coalesce onto two targets. If, as I must now assume based on your vote, you think Adrien is a wolf, that would mean that 2 of the two 3 lynch candiates were wolves... Why is that weird? and if it is 2 wolves isn't that actually better for the village than just have two candidates at the top?

[scooter]

You are voting for Adrien based off what? The night actions? Why not Comm then instead? Adrien at least has the I was voting for my life defense. Also if you are voting for him apparently not for any of his posts but his actions. Who would you vote for based on their posts? I haven't seen anything from you about what you actually think would make someone scum based on your read of their posting. In fact, in this post, in the first three paragraphs you 1) talk about meta and the night actions, 2) Say a few good town bets 3) speculate about what wolves would do. I'm not seeing anything from you in the way of actualy pin downable suspicions.

The night actions. I'll vote for Commodore too, I don't care. My vote is on Adrien because I'm using the gut of people who read yesterday more accurately as a tie-breaker.


But you want me to decide based on posts - why? I think 90% of post analysis posts in WW are a gigantic waste of time. They boil down to "I don't like this person's thinking/writing style, so they must be a wolf." It's the astrology of Werewolf. Day 1 was just full of this stuff, and I think it's virtually all completely stupid. I'd rather look at hard evidence which is votes, which is why I wanted a paper trail to be as big as possible for today. Trying to puzzle out players based on motivations and analyzing results (thanks Civ4) has always been what I'm better at anyway rather than parsing wording in posts in a game I haven't played in 8 years.


As for why Adrien. I think it's incredibly likely 1-2 wolves were on Bob, purely for numbers and meta reasons. I know I'm innocent, so that's out. Superdeath is the most unlikely, so I'm crossing him out for now. GKC has given me mild town leanings, so I'm lightly scratching him out. Less sold on that, but I'm trying to narrow this down. That leaves Commodore and Adrien. I would be happy to vote for either at the time I'm writing this.


Between the two, Adrien has two things going for him. 1) People who had a better read than me were pretty skeptical of him even before the night phase. I place a little bit of value in that. 2) The end of Day 1 was weirdly quiet considering we had a wolf quite close to the top, and a lot of players parked on third parties, which in theory should have made the wolves jumpier because there was a lot of potential for last minute vote swings. I was surprised it never happened, actually. That is weird, but it's less weird if Adrien is a wolf. In that case, they were in a precarious position, so they should just hold their breath and hang on tight and not risk the whole thing coming down on them.

[scooter]

Crossposted

[scooter]

I haven't gone through past posts or anything, but my current inclination based on all this is to lynch AdrienIer. He would have been my #2 choice last round, and the night actions make him look worse. Chevalier is another I'm curious about with his seeming throwaway vote, though it would be awfully sloppy for two wolves to both do that on the same target. I did think it was weird overall that we didn't coalesce onto the top 2-3 targets on Day 1, which I think is generally what you want to do as the village. Bob getting lynched with only 6/17 votes feels pretty bad.

My bold. He would have been #2? But you didn't know the case? How do you reconcile this?

I didn't have a case for anyone yesterday. It's Day 1. There's no hard evidence. Anyone who was more than like 60% sure they had a vote on a wolf is super naive. He would have been my second choice because it would have provided a lot of info based on where votes were swinging. I've beaten this drum to death, but it's my opinion on how to play this game. The purpose of Day 1 is to get hard info. An Adrien lynch would have happened via late swing, and I was loosely tempted because it would have told me a lot about Bob and Cyneheard based on who was advocating for that late swing. But overall, I thought the case on every player was pretty weak. Because it was Day 1.