WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Lewwyn]

I haven't gone through past posts or anything, but my current inclination based on all this is to lynch AdrienIer. He would have been my #2 choice last round, and the night actions make him look worse. Chevalier is another I'm curious about with his seeming throwaway vote, though it would be awfully sloppy for two wolves to both do that on the same target. I did think it was weird overall that we didn't coalesce onto the top 2-3 targets on Day 1, which I think is generally what you want to do as the village. Bob getting lynched with only 6/17 votes feels pretty bad.

My bold. He would have been #2? But you didn't know the case? How do you reconcile this?

I didn't have a case for anyone yesterday. It's Day 1. There's no hard evidence. Anyone who was more than like 60% sure they had a vote on a wolf is super naive. He would have been my second choice because it would have provided a lot of info based on where votes were swinging. I've beaten this drum to death, but it's my opinion on how to play this game. The purpose of Day 1 is to get hard info. An Adrien lynch would have happened via late swing, and I was loosely tempted because it would have told me a lot about Bob and Cyneheard based on who was advocating for that late swing. But overall, I thought the case on every player was pretty weak. Because it was Day 1.

And yet, even on Day 1 we almost lynched a wolf by 1 vote. I don't think that was luck and people did have cases, did make cases. You are now saying that Day 1 you have no cases and you are only voting based on the information swings would provide... And yet you asked me what the case on Adrien was when I asked if you'd switch. Why did the case on Adrien even matter to you at that time if you don't believe there can be any accuratte cases on Day 1?

[scooter]

And yet, even on Day 1 we almost lynched a wolf by 1 vote. I don't think that was luck and people did have cases, did make cases. You are now saying that Day 1 you have no cases and you are only voting based on the information swings would provide... And yet you asked me what the case on Adrien was when I asked if you'd switch. Why did the case on Adrien even matter to you at that time if you don't believe there can be any accuratte cases on Day 1?

I cared a lot more on why you so badly wanted someone else to get lynched when you were on Bob. Like I said, if Bob was a wolf, in my mind you were 100% a wolf too. You were practically begging people to switch off, and to me there seemed to be no reason for it at all. I wanted you on the record before the votes were counted because you felt strongly enough to do a last minute vote swap, which I thought was odd. And like I said, I toyed with the idea of joining you, but I decided against it.


Also, yes, I'd say the fact that we almost lynched a wolf by 1 vote was luck. Based on random chance, a wolf finishing in the top-2 is about a 50/50 dice roll if we all voted randomly. You were really suspicious of Gaspar and posted a big thing on it end of night 1. How's that take based on nothing but posts looking? I'm not judging, I whiffed a bunch too. On Day 1, only a few people have info, and they're the baddies. So I spent most of my energy watching for people who voted like they knew something. You were one of those people, but the result looks good (but not bulletproof) for your innocence, so here we are.

[naufragar]

Who would you vote for if not Serdoa, nauf?

I'll vote to be impactful. Instead of keeping lists of town vs. wolf, I've been trying to reread people when they come up. Right now it looks like the conversation is about Adrien and Pindicator [actually right now, you and Scooter are going at it, but I'm always going to be slow responding]. If the deadline was now and my vote was the decider, I'd vote for Adrien. I didn't find anything particularly damning about either. I don't buy Meiz's argument about Pindi drawing suspicion away from Cyneheard.

I don't like this post from Adrien:

Gaspar's early game was very good (and suspicious of Pindicator BTW), he could be an excellent wolf but I'll put him on my town leans.

Adrien hadn't been handing out many reads. He singles out Gaspar without saying what makes his play good, except that it's anti-Pindicator. I can't understand this line at all. Gaspar was still alive and wasn't beating the Pindicator drum, if I remember.

This is all weak broth. But it's topical, and I'll try to stay relevant. [But back to stuff that happened 1000 posts ago...]

Every post you make makes it seem like you know something everyone else doesn't.

Don't hide behind innuendo. What part seems like I know something others don't?

Serdoa was basically the reason Cyneheard was on the chopping block yesterday.

This just isn't true.

[Lewwyn]

And yet, even on Day 1 we almost lynched a wolf by 1 vote. I don't think that was luck and people did have cases, did make cases. You are now saying that Day 1 you have no cases and you are only voting based on the information swings would provide... And yet you asked me what the case on Adrien was when I asked if you'd switch. Why did the case on Adrien even matter to you at that time if you don't believe there can be any accuratte cases on Day 1?

I cared a lot more on why you so badly wanted someone else to get lynched when you were on Bob. Like I said, if Bob was a wolf, in my mind you were 100% a wolf too. You were practically begging people to switch off, and to me there seemed to be no reason for it at all. I wanted you on the record before the votes were counted because you felt strongly enough to do a last minute vote swap, which I thought was odd. And like I said, I toyed with the idea of joining you, but I decided against it.


Also, yes, I'd say the fact that we almost lynched a wolf by 1 vote was luck. Based on random chance, a wolf finishing in the top-2 is about a 50/50 dice roll if we all voted randomly. You were really suspicious of Gaspar and posted a big thing on it end of night 1. How's that take based on nothing but posts looking? I'm not judging, I whiffed a bunch too. On Day 1, only a few people have info, and they're the baddies. So I spent most of my energy watching for people who voted like they knew something. You were one of those people, but the result looks good (but not bulletproof) for your innocence, so here we are.

You're being pretty cold calculating here when werewolf is not that. You say 100% chance I'm a wolf if Bob is a wolf is simply not true in anyway. To say that implies you are turning this into a mathematical equation of sorts which it most certainly is not. It's fair to wonder why I would want something so badly as you say (though I would argue that I was not begging nor pleading and in fact asking if people would do it, the fact that you need to exaggerate my play to make your stance seem more reasonable is telling). However even here you are saying you felt my actions odd. You are still saying that those reads and thinking about a players post matter. This is a bit contradictory wouldn't you say?

And what about Gaspar? And what about whataboutism? You're deflecting here. Cyneheard was not just luck, Gaspar felt suspicious of him and voted for him, I felt suspicious and in the end voted for him. There me be some luck, but that's not just luck and your stark characterization of the situation is quite suspicious. Sure we whiff, that doesn't mean we don't try! You're seemingly arguing that in the end it doesn't matter what we do on Day 1 which is just perposterous.

I agree that hard information, voting and results are important, but this is a social game and not a number generator and I believe you know that too.

[Commodore]

As Lewwyn is implying, Scooter. His slime-levels make me uncomfortable voting with him even on Adrien.

I still don't trust you, Lewwyn. But if you had the cast-iron balls to post that mega Gaspar smear while pack-killing him, you deserve a while longer.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

So that latest Naufragar post raised my eyebrows in the same way it seemingly did for GKC. Serdoa was basically the reason Cyneheard was on the chopping block yesterday. I'm not clearing anyone, but he's in my top 2-3 most likely villagers at this point. Such a strange post.

Between Bob and cyne, I felt Bobs I reaction was a 50/50 on him being town or scum, the fact that it was so easy also made me feel more mislynchy.

I mean, I felt about 50/50 too on Bob, but those are great odds on day 1! I'll flip that coin every single time. It was so easy because nobody coalesced on an alternative. He only got 1/3 of the votes, which is super low for a lynch. Yet, when I tried to hold people's feet to the fire the other day to push people to vote meaningfully, you got mad about it. You can't have it both ways. I'm totally down for Adrien today, but I trusted my gut rather than throw out 2 days of info for a last-minute dogpile because another player whose alignment I didn't know wanted me to. I'll put it this way - if Bob came up wolf, I was 100% targeting you or Gaspar today. Sorry that I was wrong on Bob, but I still think it was the best choice given the limited info. The info has changed, so now my vote is on Adrien.

What does Serdoa have to do with it? It was me confronting cyne, and then gaspar reading into our interactions better than I did, and then the votes came in?

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Reread 251-285, what are you saying [vote]scooter[\vote]

I need to see an explanation for what you just said.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

scooter

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Starting my evening reading. I need to get through everything since my final post before the vote on Thursday, so that's the tail end of Day One and then the fallout of Day 2. I'll be a few hours at it, but I can stay up late tonight and tomorrow's Saturday, so should be able to better keep up. If you've addressed me in the thread, I'll get to you then, hopefully.

[scooter]

Lewwyn

Done posting in this thread for awhile. Being deliberately misunderstood by a borderline troll is exhausting. I remember why I quit playing this game.