WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[scooter]

by a borderline troll

Consider this part edited out, sorry.

[Commodore]

He's more manic than borderline, this game.

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn

Done posting in this thread for awhile. Being deliberately misunderstood by a borderline troll is exhausting. I remember why I quit playing this game.

You call it misunderstanding, I call it questioning logical inconsistencies, Scooter.

[BRickAstley]

Tally as of post 496:

Lynch votes
3 votes: AdrienIer (pindicator, Rowain, Charriu)
3 votes: Scooter (Commodore, GeneralKilCavalry, Lewwyn)
1 votes: Pindicator (Meiz)
1 votes: Chevalier Mal Fet (superdeath)
1 votes: Serdoa (naufragar)
1 votes: naufragar (Serdoa)
1 votes: Lewwyn (scooter)

Voting history:

Pindicator

Cyneheard

Cyneheard

AdrienIer

AdrienIer

Chevalier Mal Fet

AdrienIer

AdrienIer

Serdoa

AdrienIer

naufragar

Scooter

scooter

Lewwyn

Scooter

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Wow that is alot of night killing. At least we got 1 wolf out of the deal.

Makes me suspicious of the other person that voted for me. 

Chevalier Mal Fet  What made you keep your vote on me and not on Bob or Cyneheard?

I admitted at the end of the day that you weren't necessarily a good lynch, I just thought that you were the least bad option. Bob read more or less as playing the exact same way that I am - with limited time and attention to comb through 12,000 posts every 24 hours and carefully parse every bit for any hints. I mentioned that I had town vibes on him and didn't join the wagon.

Cyneheard I felt less strongly town on (thank goodness), but not confident enough to be the deciding vote on him. And all the late Adrien stuff, I didn't really have time to read. In those circumstances, I went for a "do no harm" approach and kept my vote where it was. Said all this at the time, too, I beleive.

Anyway, the night results, and everything since, have given me a mild town read on you. MILD, mind you. But for now I think there are better votes.

And yet, even on Day 1 we almost lynched a wolf by 1 vote. I don't think that was luck and people did have cases, did make cases. You are now saying that Day 1 you have no cases and you are only voting based on the information swings would provide... And yet you asked me what the case on Adrien was when I asked if you'd switch. Why did the case on Adrien even matter to you at that time if you don't believe there can be any accuratte cases on Day 1?

I cared a lot more on why you so badly wanted someone else to get lynched when you were on Bob. Like I said, if Bob was a wolf, in my mind you were 100% a wolf too. You were practically begging people to switch off, and to me there seemed to be no reason for it at all. I wanted you on the record before the votes were counted because you felt strongly enough to do a last minute vote swap, which I thought was odd. And like I said, I toyed with the idea of joining you, but I decided against it.


Also, yes, I'd say the fact that we almost lynched a wolf by 1 vote was luck. Based on random chance, a wolf finishing in the top-2 is about a 50/50 dice roll if we all voted randomly. You were really suspicious of Gaspar and posted a big thing on it end of night 1. How's that take based on nothing but posts looking? I'm not judging, I whiffed a bunch too. On Day 1, only a few people have info, and they're the baddies. So I spent most of my energy watching for people who voted like they knew something. You were one of those people, but the result looks good (but not bulletproof) for your innocence, so here we are.

You're being pretty cold calculating here when werewolf is not that. You say 100% chance I'm a wolf if Bob is a wolf is simply not true in anyway. To say that implies you are turning this into a mathematical equation of sorts which it most certainly is not. It's fair to wonder why I would want something so badly as you say (though I would argue that I was not begging nor pleading and in fact asking if people would do it, the fact that you need to exaggerate my play to make your stance seem more reasonable is telling). However even here you are saying you felt my actions odd. You are still saying that those reads and thinking about a players post matter. This is a bit contradictory wouldn't you say?

And what about Gaspar? And what about whataboutism? You're deflecting here. Cyneheard was not just luck, Gaspar felt suspicious of him and voted for him, I felt suspicious and in the end voted for him. There me be some luck, but that's not just luck and your stark characterization of the situation is quite suspicious. Sure we whiff, that doesn't mean we don't try! You're seemingly arguing that in the end it doesn't matter what we do on Day 1 which is just perposterous.

I agree that hard information, voting and results are important, but this is a social game and not a number generator and I believe you know that too.

So, I really don't like a lot of Lewwyn's posts in this game, and this one is a textbook example. Let me break down why. 

I've been veering from scum to town back to scum and to town again on Lewwyn, but all my gut keeps telling me when I read his posts is a strong odor of wolf. In fact, I had almost talked myself into voting for him alongside Bob on Day 1. The main thing that scared me off was that his hyperactivity and constant train of posts had indeed provoked lots of discussion. He shook a lot of trees and we saw a lot of fruit fall out. 

However, what often happens though, is that I find his arguments a bit specious and difficult to follow. The constant veering wildly from player to player makes it tough to track, as it is - he responds to everyone and calls out anyone who doesn't post. But an example of things I don't like are his and Rowain's interaction with Adrien late Thursday - Rowain misinterpreted something, Lewwyn (uncharacteristically) brushed it off, Adrien said "That's odd" and then both flipped to attacking him. 

The post above, though, is a great example of what I'm talking about. Lewwyn misintreprets Scooter's argument here, and I'm not sure if it's wilful or not. scooter wasn't saying "If Bob is a wolf, 100% chance L is, mathematical certainty," he was saying that Bob and Lewwyn's wolfiness was linked in his mind - ie, if Bob was a wolf, Lewwyn almost certainly was also, in his mind. Then, he throws in some subtle insinuations - "the fact that you exaggerate my play to make your stance seem more reasonable is telling." Telling of what? scooter thinking Lewwyn was loudly off the Bob train is scummy? I dunno, this is an aside, but I never like eyebrow waggling in posts. I prefer to be direct about my beliefs, think its' more helpful for all. 

Then he continues to misinterpet - "You are still saying that those reads and thinking about a players post matter. This is a bit contradictory wouldn't you say?...You're seemingly arguing that in the end it doesn't matter what we do on Day 1 which is just perposterous." Not how I read scooter at all - scooter is saying that on Day 1, who gets lynched is mostly a matter of randomness, because there's no hard data. The arguments and posts on Day 1 aren't pointless, though, because they're grist for the mill on Day 2 as data starts to come in. That seems...pretty elementary. 

As I reread Day 1, I kind of got a bit of a Rowain/Lewwyn collusion vibe at times. Maybe because they're old friends and comfortable with each other, but Rowain rarely seemed specific. He'll ask questions of people, he'll explain the rules and the meta, but only very rarely will he give his own opinions - and he and Lewwyn both came out with this Meiz "early vote on Pindi is very suspicious" accusation at around the same time. Anyway, at the end of Day 1, I felt Rowain is town, now I'm much less certain. I could see him and Lewwyn as scum coordinating and keeping the townies stirred up against each other through Rowain's gentle background encouragement and Lewwyn's hyperactivity. 

Biggest flaw in the "Lewwyn is a hyperactive wolf" theory, of course, is the death of Gaspar. Lewwyn had no need to make that long-ass post if he knew Gaspar would shortly be outed as town. No one would ahve said a thing if he hadn't been so exhaustive. You can get into WIFOM territory here, but you have to read it as anti-wolf evidence (as Nauf pointed out, he might still be a Serial Killer). So, again, still a general fog of words, but Lewwyn is high on my list of suspects, Rowain less so. 

So let's talk everyone else:

Pindicator did largely skate on Day 1, but I hope he can be more commital like he said he would be. Haven't seen much of it yet. 

Serdoa and naufragar seemingly have to have one wolf between them, but I'm not sure who.  I don't like Serdoa for misconstruing Nauf's seemingly easy-to-follow points about Lewwyn winning town points, and for accusing nauf of misconstruction even when nauf wasn't even quoting him. I don't like naufragar for the general jumpiness and defensiveness, and I don't like either for tunnelling on each other. For now I'm setting them aside until we can find one wolf elsewhere, then maybe untangle it.

GKC, apart from being named after one of my favorite Civil War generals, has been quiet lately. I agree with him that Cyne being the only other person on the SD train with me has mildly cleared SD. It might be worth looking at the history of that train as it relates to Bob and Cyne to see if we can't find some scum there. He's been quiet until recently, when he comes out against scooter. Not a fan of that, since I think I'm team scooter at the moment. 


Superdeath is superquiet, apart from his vote for me, which, fair cop. I think there are better targets. 

Commodore has been quiet today as well - a summary of the night, a few thoughts, and voting scooter for being "slimy." Not a lot of reasons given. I think Scooter's argument that there must be 1 or 2 wolves among the Bob voters persuasive, and I also think that of those voters, Scooter, Commodore, and Adrien are the best. Mildly in his favor, though, is that he was super anti-Gaspar yesterday, which would be dumb if you were planning on killing him and outing him as town. WIFOM, though. Weak evidence. 

Me, I'm still quiet, but I do try to give every post substance when I do post. That way, if I'm lynched or if I die, at least there'll be a wealth of information to sort through for the town once my bona fides are established at my funeral. 

Adrien is a vote I like. The arguments everyone else has given are well-established - he's been extremely quiet and tight with his opinions, he's on the Bob train, and his only justification was "they both were low-content, but Bob defended himself worse." That stands out to me, as I thought Bob defended himself better. Anyway, his day one activity was a vote for Lewwyn, and grilling Serdoa about not voting Lewwyn, claiming class (fair cop), voting SD for weird voting, and then voting Bob for being absent. He said he'd given reads on people, but if so, I didn't write them down. Right now I feel comfortable with AdrienIer as a place to start my vote. 

scooter started silly, but his actions have largely tracked with me. He has prodded low activity players without being aggressive about starting lynch trains, had an early town read on Grillo, and generally has had to my mind solid, clear logic (contrast with Lewwyn's explosions of pixels everywhere - ie scooter's thoughts on the mathematics of catching a day one wolf in your top two vote getters and the uselessness of language analysis on posts are both things I agree with). I thought he explained his vote for Bob and his vote for Adrien well. I was already a bit suspicious of Lewwyn, and then this exchange with scooter only made me more suspicious. 

Charriu I've liked since day one, which I think I mentioned in my previous roundup. He's been calm when faced with accusations, thought Grillo was a good townie, and didn't like the vote for SD because it wouldn't give us information. He voted Adrien on Day 1, and gave a really in depth post with all of his thoughts. Lot of effort for a wolf.

Also, he likes me, so I like him back.  

Anyway, I don't share his trust of Serdoa and Rowain, and I think Meiz is more trustworthy than he gives him credit, but otherwise I largely endorse his reads. 

Meiz I generally like. He posts steadily with lots of his own thoughts, voted on Cyneheard early - his first post, actually, was calling out Cyneheard as posting a fluffy read least instead of an in-depth one. Meta-wise, I have to believe thrawn would have been active if he were scum, and if wasn't scum, neither can Meiz be. I dont' find the early vote for Pindi suspicious - there's little difference between posting a snap judgment after a night and having preloaded "going to vote for pindi no matter what" today. In fact, I see no real reason why a scum would be that committed - surely he'd also look for the results too before deciding where our train was today? Anyway, I like Meiz. 

I know I'm still being very noncommittal, but I'm the sort of person who always tries to be clear about his level of certainty. In a game like this, that often means saying "I feel like this but I'm not certain." I don't have a read stronger than 65% on anyone (Adrien, for the record - meaning 1 out of every 3 people I say I'm '65%' on is actually a villager). 

Now let's see who I crossposted with.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

CMF - I'm hesitant to join this anti-lewwyn train solely on the basis of him being an early pusher for cyne. Perhaps this is a bad reason.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

CMF - I'm hesitant to join this anti-lewwyn train solely on the basis of him being an early pusher for cyne. Perhaps this is a bad reason.

That's also a good point, and I should have mentioned that in my write-up. I'm not at all sure if it's just that his posting style rubs me the wrong way, or if there's actually something there. That and the Gaspar posts are hard to reconcile, and it's difficult to work out all the implications of my Rowain-Lewwyn axis theory quite yet. That's why I feel most comfortable on Adrien right now.

[Commodore]

Tally as of post 496:

Lynch votes
3 votes: AdrienIer (pindicator, Rowain, Charriu)
3 votes: Scooter (Commodore, GeneralKilCavalry, Lewwyn)
1 votes: Pindicator (Meiz)
1 votes: Chevalier Mal Fet (superdeath)
1 votes: Serdoa (naufragar)
1 votes: naufragar (Serdoa)
1 votes: Lewwyn (scooter)

 Okay, I don't have a ton of time, but I feel like some players are getting ignored in the Adrien/Scooter/Lewwyn discussion. And perhaps me, and/or Naufragar? I have vague impressions, which barring a full reread may suffice. 

The final tally of day 1 with colors:
Bob (6): Commodore,scooter,El Grillo, SD,GKC,AdrienIer
Cyneheard (5): Gaspar,Meiz,Serdoa,naufragar,Lewwyn
AdrienIer (3): pindi,Charriu,Rowain
SD (2): CMF,Cyneheard
Lewwyn (1):  Bob

Cyneheard's only buddy in the end on Superdeath was CMF. I believe CMF when he says he's strapped for time and doing methodical reviews. I don't ding him for not being hyper-involved...but I also believe that Cyneheard's grim despair was sincere, so obviously CMF isn't off the hook. Neutral lean.

AdrienIer isn't looking great, so I do give mild points to Pindicator, Charriu, and Rowain for their votes. They certainly didn't lynch a villager, so that's better than my record. I've liked Charriu's sparse comments, although I don't clear him of course he's seemed to make a best effort to keep up with an overwhelming game with limited time. Pindicator seems to be trying to hunt, but his signal/noise ratio is a little muddy thus far. Rowain, I'll be the first to admit to having a difficult time to reading, but I have my strongest useful town read for him. He's been working hard to bring out information in a way that I think helps the town, by prodding and poking, and his votes seem to have actual teeth. 

I don't think a vote for Cyneheard saves someone *if* they were online near the deadline. That's all the voters except for...oh. Crap. Gaspar. Well then. Meiz has been giving me as mild a read as I ever get from him. I utterly and unequivocally reject any metagame exoneration of Meiz here; Thrawn absolutely seemed sincere about being overtaxed, but he was willing to give it a go, so it could have been he was a loyal wolf gamely trying for the team. That being said, I still like Meiz as somewhat village just given his play. Serdoa leans village to me, but he is a good player, so I don't trust my read. His spat with Naufragar kind of strikes me as monomaniacal but Naufragar returns it with vigor, enough so that I'm beginning to vibe scum Nau-direction just because it's the easiest gambit in the world to tunnel as a wolf. Lewwyn...chaff, good stuff, bold stuff, scum stuff, more good stuff...like I said, he's successfully cowed me by sheer weight of posting from trying a good hard scum-scan on him, but I don't trust him at all, particularly when he was so clearly setting up that he was willing to jump *off* Cyneheard at that deadline.

I think we're covering thems of us who kind of manslaughtered Bob. I'll bet with six voters and a wolf on the block at five, there was at least one wolf in the mix, and possibly two. Adrien and Scooter are who I look at most closely but General Kill Cavalry might be playing one hell of a great first game. And hey, Superdeath might be surprisingly smooth.

[Lewwyn]

I don't think you're reading properly CMF. Is that on purpose? You say you don't like a lot of my posts, but the only one you've attacked all game is now a siingle post at the end of a conversation with scooter. You don't chime in on the first half of the conversation or talk at all about scooter's inconsistencies. I am not misunderstanding him.

However, what often happens though, is that I find his arguments a bit specious and difficult to follow. The constant veering wildly from player to player makes it tough to track, as it is - he responds to everyone and calls out anyone who doesn't post. But an example of things I don't like are his and Rowain's interaction with Adrien late Thursday - Rowain misinterpreted something, Lewwyn (uncharacteristically) brushed it off, Adrien said "That's odd" and then both flipped to attacking him. 

This was explained very clearly I thought. Are you ignoring my explanation for laughing? Also you are somehow tying Rowain and I voting fro Adrien to that which is not in the slightest true. I voted for Adrien because I thought him scuummy and because I thought it was a good idea. I didn't even register that adrien found that interaction with Rowain odd. How do you know if it was characteristic or uncharacteristic of me in any case? And what pray tell does this even matter?

The post above, though, is a great example of what I'm talking about. Lewwyn misintreprets Scooter's argument here, and I'm not sure if it's wilful or not. scooter wasn't saying "If Bob is a wolf, 100% chance L is, mathematical certainty," he was saying that Bob and Lewwyn's wolfiness was linked in his mind - ie, if Bob was a wolf, Lewwyn almost certainly was also, in his mind. Then, he throws in some subtle insinuations - "the fact that you exaggerate my play to make your stance seem more reasonable is telling." Telling of what? scooter thinking Lewwyn was loudly off the Bob train is scummy? I dunno, this is an aside, but I never like eyebrow waggling in posts. I prefer to be direct about my beliefs, think its' more helpful for all. 

Again you are only focusing on this part. Scooter literally says 100%. It doesn't matter if its in his mind, its still 100% for him. In werewolf games no villager can really know 100%. Wolves are the ones with knowledge. Yes, he might be hyperbolic, but then I am too. Dude, we're fencing can't you see that? and the fact that you insinuate that I'm difficult to understand when I say something is telling is you being obtuse. Obviously I saying he is a wolf. I'm saying he is a wolf I'm saying he is a wolf. But you know what? I don't want to shut the conversation down, I want to continue to pull more information out of him and continue talking to him. This is not misinterpretation.

YOU however seem to ignore the whole first part of the conversation where I really call out his inconsistancies.

Then he continues to misinterpet - "You are still saying that those reads and thinking about a players post matter. This is a bit contradictory wouldn't you say?...You're seemingly arguing that in the end it doesn't matter what we do on Day 1 which is just perposterous." Not how I read scooter at all - scooter is saying that on Day 1, who gets lynched is mostly a matter of randomness, because there's no hard data. The arguments and posts on Day 1 aren't pointless, though, because they're grist for the mill on Day 2 as data starts to come in. That seems...pretty elementary. 

DUDE your interpretation that you have just explained here is that scooter is saying its mostly random and I'm not disagreeing, I'm saying that its not ONLY random and that sometimes we catch wolves based on posts and reads. And we do! We almost did yesterday! And if you're voting for Adrien then you believe we had 2 wolves up on the block yesterday! I'm saying that even if there is some randomness we still must TRY to find wolves and lynch wolves, and thats what scooter was ignoring and what now you seem to be ignoring.

As I reread Day 1, I kind of got a bit of a Rowain/Lewwyn collusion vibe at times. Maybe because they're old friends and comfortable with each other, but Rowain rarely seemed specific. He'll ask questions of people, he'll explain the rules and the meta, but only very rarely will he give his own opinions - and he and Lewwyn both came out with this Meiz "early vote on Pindi is very suspicious" accusation at around the same time. Anyway, at the end of Day 1, I felt Rowain is town, now I'm much less certain. I could see him and Lewwyn as scum coordinating and keeping the townies stirred up against each other through Rowain's gentle background encouragement and Lewwyn's hyperactivity. 

I never said Meiz's vote on Pindi was suspicious,  I was curious and wanted to see if I was right about a hunch. Even if he had planned to vote pindi to start the day it is a null tell whether he's town or wolf.

You think Rowain and I are scum buddies? Why are you voting for Adrien then. Rowain and I voted for Adrien yesterday and Rowain is voting for Adrien now. I have stated I think Adrien is at the top of my scum list multiple times. So why are you voting for Adrien??

Biggest flaw in the "Lewwyn is a hyperactive wolf" theory, of course, is the death of Gaspar. Lewwyn had no need to make that long-ass post if he knew Gaspar would shortly be outed as town. No one would ahve said a thing if he hadn't been so exhaustive. You can get into WIFOM territory here, but you have to read it as anti-wolf evidence (as Nauf pointed out, he might still be a Serial Killer). So, again, still a general fog of words, but Lewwyn is high on my list of suspects, Rowain less so. 

No, the biggest flaw is that I am villager who is obviously and actively hunting wolves. None of what you said really stands up under close reading.



By the way, I don't give a fuck about winning town points. I only care about hunting wolves.

[pindicator]

CMF - I'm hesitant to join this anti-lewwyn train solely on the basis of him being an early pusher for cyne. Perhaps this is a bad reason.

there is more to it than that. Lewwyn joined Gaspar into Cyneheard, but then after 15 minutes says didn't think anyone would vote Cyneheard.

When I read Lewwyn's day 1 I see excitement towards Cyneheard in that first vote and then it's like he's reluctant after. Not as excited as other targets.

But, he also seems to be consistently on Cyneheard after a quick switch to Bob and then another joining me to AdrienIer.

I really don't how AdrienIer is now suddenly town with no explanation. Or how did he put it "I started thinking what if AdrienIer is town" - but no quotes, no evidence to support that shift. I really want to know why AdrienIer is suddenly town.

I've written and deleted like 3 Lewwyn superwolf theories already because it doesn't quite feel right. I'm not convinced, but I find his voting with Cyneheard to lack the energy of other targets (weak evidence), and his last second switch to Cyneheard along with the Gaspar post just feels so damn convenient to me.

That said, scooter was also on my day 1 suspect list. I still don't see why the sudden shift away from AdrienIer. I agree that this attack on scooter is suspect. I've seen Lewwyn do this before, when he gets someone in his sights.

I also really want to hear scooter's non-Lewwyn thoughts.

And anything of substance from AdrienIer.