WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[AdrienIer]

Yeah I didn't think much of naufragar's posts. If anything I would think a newbie wolf would be a bit more cautious early on.

While rereading I found one of Scooter's first posts which would be pretty funny if they're both wolves.

Meanwhile Charriu lies about what the situation was when I voted for Bob. Thanks Meiz for correcting him. If it had been 5-5 I'd have taken more time to think about Cyneheard before voting.

[scooter]

Scooter, your take on Commodore?

If Adrien is innocent, he's likely a wolf. A lot of what he says is pretty wishy-washy and a bit non-committal, which is my other concern. I don't think I ever played WW with him, so I don't know if that's typical for him in these games, but it strikes me as vaguely out of character for him.

[Meiz]

Yes, agreed.

[Charriu]

Adrien: His vote for Bob definitely was a try to safe himself, but important to note is that at the time he voted for Bob (#373) both Bob and Cyneheard had 5 votes. He could have just as easily voted Cyneheard to save himself, but he didn't

This caused huge alarm bells, but after re-checking I think the votes were:

Bobchillingworth (5): Commodore, scooter, El Grillo, superdeath, GeneralKilCavalry
Cyneheard (4): Gaspar, Meiz, Serdoa, naufragar
AdrienIer (4): pindicator, Charriu, Rowain, Lewwyn
superdeath (2): Chevalier Mal Fet, Cyneheard
Lewwyn (1): Bobchillingworth
pindicator (1): AdrienIer

Thank you for fact checking me there. I knew it was close and tried to reconstruct the situation. I must have miscounted a vote somewhere.

[Rowain]

@Serdoa I have nothing against a naufragar lynch. As I said he has enough wolfy-posts to lynch him 3 games in a row. But I'm skeptical that he really is a wolf . For one his switch from SD to Cyneheard put pressure on Cyneheard ( making it 5:7). Now this could of course be wolves trying to get cover - both CH & naufr were voting SD.
In short my impression is that we don't learn much if we lynch naufr and he rolls town.
I do like your post here but my conclusion is rather that Cyneheard protected GKC . GKC voted Cyneheard early on and then jumped to naufr 1 hour into the game and stayed there a long long time before he finally jumped on the Bob-wagon.

Rowain votes Cyneheard on post #299. But later switches his vote for Lewwyn #320. The vote change itself is suspicious, as it's pushing Cyne away from potential lynch targets. Can you explain how you viewed Lewwyn's play before your vote? Suspicious already? If so, why? Later switches his vote for Adrien. You were not ultimately interested on the Cyneheard votes despite the earlier small push, and I'd like to hear why.

Lewwyn has been extremely excited and more or less all over the place. He has switched from SD to Bob to Cyneheard back to Bob and again Cyneheard - pushing easy targets (SD and Bob) & easy wagons Hence my post if he thinks both Bob and CH are wolf and my vote for him. As I said then for me both wagons built too fast so I feared we had 2 villagers on the block and looked for another option. Which was AdrienIer. And for the record I'm still very sceptical regarding Lewwyn.

[AdrienIer]

By starting from the idea that there was at least 1 wolf on Bob, and at least 1 on me, I'm going to state that I'd definitely prefer to vote for Commodore, GKC, Scooter, Pindi or Charriu today. After a couple hours doing rereads (and doing other stuff) I'm still not completely sure about them so I'll stick with yesterday's hunch Pindicator, with Commodore second.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I don't think you're reading properly CMF. Is that on purpose? You say you don't like a lot of my posts, but the only one you've attacked all game is now a siingle post at the end of a conversation with scooter. You don't chime in on the first half of the conversation or talk at all about scooter's inconsistencies. I am not misunderstanding him.

However, what often happens though, is that I find his arguments a bit specious and difficult to follow. The constant veering wildly from player to player makes it tough to track, as it is - he responds to everyone and calls out anyone who doesn't post. But an example of things I don't like are his and Rowain's interaction with Adrien late Thursday - Rowain misinterpreted something, Lewwyn (uncharacteristically) brushed it off, Adrien said "That's odd" and then both flipped to attacking him. 

This was explained very clearly I thought. Are you ignoring my explanation for laughing? Also you are somehow tying Rowain and I voting fro Adrien to that which is not in the slightest true. I voted for Adrien because I thought him scuummy and because I thought it was a good idea. I didn't even register that adrien found that interaction with Rowain odd. How do you know if it was characteristic or uncharacteristic of me in any case? And what pray tell does this even matter?

The post above, though, is a great example of what I'm talking about. Lewwyn misintreprets Scooter's argument here, and I'm not sure if it's wilful or not. scooter wasn't saying "If Bob is a wolf, 100% chance L is, mathematical certainty," he was saying that Bob and Lewwyn's wolfiness was linked in his mind - ie, if Bob was a wolf, Lewwyn almost certainly was also, in his mind. Then, he throws in some subtle insinuations - "the fact that you exaggerate my play to make your stance seem more reasonable is telling." Telling of what? scooter thinking Lewwyn was loudly off the Bob train is scummy? I dunno, this is an aside, but I never like eyebrow waggling in posts. I prefer to be direct about my beliefs, think its' more helpful for all. 

Again you are only focusing on this part. Scooter literally says 100%. It doesn't matter if its in his mind, its still 100% for him. In werewolf games no villager can really know 100%. Wolves are the ones with knowledge. Yes, he might be hyperbolic, but then I am too. Dude, we're fencing can't you see that? and the fact that you insinuate that I'm difficult to understand when I say something is telling is you being obtuse. Obviously I saying he is a wolf. I'm saying he is a wolf I'm saying he is a wolf. But you know what? I don't want to shut the conversation down, I want to continue to pull more information out of him and continue talking to him. This is not misinterpretation.

YOU however seem to ignore the whole first part of the conversation where I really call out his inconsistancies.

It's posts like these two that keep bringing me back to Lewwyn is a wolf. 

Here's my issue with him: sometimes he'll grill someone really well and I can follow his lines of thought easily. His actions also seem to be mostly pro-town. On the other hand, there are posts like these two and the ones I quoted earlier that are so egregious I feel like they have to be written in bad faith. Let me walk through why I feel that way:

1)He criticizes me for only attacking a single post. I explicitly stated that I was using that post as an example. Did he miss that, or ignore it as an effort to use any sort of window to attack me?
2)He says I ignore scooter's inconsistencies, but I pretty deliberately stated that I didn't find scooter's argument inconsistent. Again, it feels like he's ignoring parts of my post. 

The rest in brackets because it's tangential: [Second, regarding the Rowain/Lewwyn axis - first of all, let me state up front that I no longer believe this, having slept on it and looked at the new posts in the light of day. Rowain has made more good posts since that allay a lot of my concerns about him, more on that below. But you say it's totally false that you and he both turned on Adrien at the same time, when he voted Adrien right after you asked him about it (ca. post 133, 150, thereabouts). And again, you and he both criticized Meiz for his pindicator vote at roughly the same time. 

However, like I said, Rowain has been pro-town elsewhere, and this theory raises a lot of problems, so I don't really buy it. Instead, I think I'm just seeing a false pattern because Lewwyn has, frankly, been all over the place, so things like this will happen purely from happenstance. Humans are a lot better at seeing patterns that aren't there than they are at correctly seeing true patterns, because the false tiger in the bushes you see is never the tiger that kills you, it's the real one you didn't see. Anyway, though, Lewwyn dismisses all of htis as ridiculous even though the posts are right there. Perhaps I'm just misinterpreting you?]

Anyway, he then charges that his insinuation was obviously that scooter is a wolf, but that's not what my objection is. Instead, I'll lay it out:

1)He says he was just using hyperbole. Everyone uses hyperbole! Well, alright, but your entire attack on scooter there was based on scooter being hyperbolic. So is hyperbole wolfy, or not? The thing is, though, you don't have to state it out loud. Instead you waggle your eyebrows and say that scooter's exaggerations are "suggestive." You let the audience fill in teh rest of the argument themselves, instead of making it explicit. I hate this. Make it explicit instead:

1)Scooter exaggerated my desire to not vote for Cyneheard. (It was specifically the exaggeration you objected to, ie "I didn't beg or plead")
2)Wolves are more likely to use hyperbole.
3)Therefore, scooter is more likely to be a wolf.

When you do it like this, its' clear, easy to follow - but it's also easy to see when you switch between two arguments, as when you brushed off doing the very thing you were criticizing scooter for. That's why I keep getting wolf vibes from your posts! 

You also still misintrepret the argument: it's not "finding wolves is mostly random, so we shouldn't try," it's instead "parsing posts gives little real information, so catching a wolf on day one is mostly random." Then on day two we use the hard evidence of voting patterns and known identities to reason. No one is saying we shouldn't try, but scooter was arguing about the utility of posting a bunch on Day One when all we have to go on is wild speculation and "was nauf too defensive" tea-leaf reading. 

[quote pid='745608' dateline='1599273433']

Then he continues to misinterpet - "You are still saying that those reads and thinking about a players post matter. This is a bit contradictory wouldn't you say?...You're seemingly arguing that in the end it doesn't matter what we do on Day 1 which is just perposterous." Not how I read scooter at all - scooter is saying that on Day 1, who gets lynched is mostly a matter of randomness, because there's no hard data. The arguments and posts on Day 1 aren't pointless, though, because they're grist for the mill on Day 2 as data starts to come in. That seems...pretty elementary. 

DUDE your interpretation that you have just explained here is that scooter is saying its mostly random and I'm not disagreeing, I'm saying that its not ONLY random and that sometimes we catch wolves based on posts and reads. And we do! We almost did yesterday! And if you're voting for Adrien then you believe we had 2 wolves up on the block yesterday! I'm saying that even if there is some randomness we still must TRY to find wolves and lynch wolves, and thats what scooter was ignoring and what now you seem to be ignoring.

As I reread Day 1, I kind of got a bit of a Rowain/Lewwyn collusion vibe at times. Maybe because they're old friends and comfortable with each other, but Rowain rarely seemed specific. He'll ask questions of people, he'll explain the rules and the meta, but only very rarely will he give his own opinions - and he and Lewwyn both came out with this Meiz "early vote on Pindi is very suspicious" accusation at around the same time. Anyway, at the end of Day 1, I felt Rowain is town, now I'm much less certain. I could see him and Lewwyn as scum coordinating and keeping the townies stirred up against each other through Rowain's gentle background encouragement and Lewwyn's hyperactivity. 

I never said Meiz's vote on Pindi was suspicious,  I was curious and wanted to see if I was right about a hunch. Even if he had planned to vote pindi to start the day it is a null tell whether he's town or wolf. 

You think Rowain and I are scum buddies? Why are you voting for Adrien then. Rowain and I voted for Adrien yesterday and Rowain is voting for Adrien now. I have stated I think Adrien is at the top of my scum list multiple times. So why are you voting for Adrien??

Biggest flaw in the "Lewwyn is a hyperactive wolf" theory, of course, is the death of Gaspar. Lewwyn had no need to make that long-ass post if he knew Gaspar would shortly be outed as town. No one would ahve said a thing if he hadn't been so exhaustive. You can get into WIFOM territory here, but you have to read it as anti-wolf evidence (as Nauf pointed out, he might still be a Serial Killer). So, again, still a general fog of words, but Lewwyn is high on my list of suspects, Rowain less so. 

No, the biggest flaw is that I am villager who is obviously and actively hunting wolves. None of what you said really stands up under close reading.



By the way, I don't give a fuck about winning town points. I only care about hunting wolves.

[/quote]

I thought I was clear about voting for Adrien. I still think he's the best lynch. Adrien skated through most of day one with little content. He's done the same today. He doesn't give many reads on players, when he does they're very sparse, and he's frequently absent. I get the time commitment thing, but at the same time, it makes you an easier lynch because if you ARE town, hey, we're not losing much, right? The logic that one of GKC, Commodore, scooter, and Adrien must be a wolf seems strong to me - no way was Bob lynched with all village votes, not with Cyneheard so close. Of those 4, I've been clear that I like scooter's logic the most. Commodore has been mostly quiet today, with a few fluff posts, and I could be persuaded to vote for him, however, he had a better day one than Adrien so right now I prefer to stay. GKC also was on the list day one and is still around day two, but as he's cooled his spat with naufragar, I see him posting more substantial content. So right now my order goes Adrien > Commodore > GKC > scoooter, but you need to argue me off Adrien. 

Why not vote for you? Because I don't know if you're a wolf. Gun to my head, at this point, I'd probably put you in the town. Actions speak louder than words and I feel your actions are mostly pro-town. But then you get these posts where the logic makes no sense, your opponents' words are twisted around, and it doesn't feel like you're after the truth at all. And then right after you're off to someone new, savaging them, often with good points. It feels most like you're just after chaos more than anything. 

I also really want to hear scooter's non-Lewwyn thoughts.

So, let's try this. Chevalier's post makes a lot of sense to me. Perhaps I was slightly biased by the fact that it started with him defending me, but also it's clear we think the game the same. I'm trying to not let that be a blind spot, but I think his analysis has been really good. That said, I do have a question for him:


Chevalier, Any particular reason you voted for and kept your vote on Superdeath? The vote basically had 3 camps. Bob's vote was a villager mad at Lewwyn. Sounds familiar. Cyneheard was a wolf throwing his vote down on an off-target. Chevalier is the only other outlier we don't have an explanation for. Do you think your vote was good still?

Easy: Risk mitigation, mostly. I wanted the least bad option. I'll explain a bit more:

I voted SD early because he was easy. The erratic votes with no reasoning, long after there was more substantial discussion going on, felt like a newbie wolf who didn't know how to pretend not to know things, so just didn't try. At vote time, my four options were: 

a)Stick with superdeath
b)Vote Bob
c)Vote Cyneheard
d)Vote Adrien

Of those, I was pretty clear taht I thought Bob was a bad lynch. I still do (duh). Bob's frustration seemed genuine to me because it's the exact same as my own. I thought Bob was a villager and I couldn't swap off Superdeath to vote for a villager. Plus, Bob might be an asset down the road one things calmed down, or on the weekend. We'd appreciate his insights right now, I think. 

Cyneheard I was less convinced of. I wasn't sure what to make of it, but the reasons people were voting him were largely the same as for Bob. If I had switched to him, I think it would have been a tie and Bob would still have been lynched, but it might also have affected other scum. I wish I had done that, but given what I knew at the time I don't blame myself. It didn't seem like there was enough evidence to swap off SD.

Adrien, the push for him I mostly missed. It came late in the day, and I didn't have time to read and digest it. Never really considered it an option, in all honesty. 

Superdeath, though, still had the bad vibes from earlier. His defense was weak - we mustn't forget that - and I thought that he was still the scummiest. Furthermore, if I were wrong, and he was a villager, we'd have lost little - the erratic behavior and thin reasoning wouldn't really be missed by the town and we'd have at least cleared up a distraction if nothing else. Now, I didn't think superdeath was a good lynch - ie, I thought he was town more likely than not - I just thought he was the least bad lynch. Cyneheard being a wolf voting for him has solidified my impression that he's "probably" town.

My thoughts
Adrien - pindi:
pindi highlighted Adrien'S voting thereby binding cyneheard + Adrien + Comm. Now this can be 2 things) pindi is a genius and really hit the scum hard. Adrien has done a similar voting-pattern in the past (bringing up others when a wolfbuddy was in danger) or b) pindi is scum tying a wolf (Cynehear) with 2 villagers. In that it to note that pindi voted for Adrien and not Cyneheard. What makes me stop from jumping on the pindi is a wolf-train is twofold: He did push for Adrien immediately today which is dangerous for a wolf  and the attack from Meiz. My distrust of Meiz you can read further up.

scooter
As Lewwyn noted the jump from What is the case against Adrien to lynch Adrien together with the (oh I looked at the wrong tally )-excuse  does look scummy. Werewolf is a game that gets under your skin especially if you are a wolf.

naufragar - Serdoa: While biting in 1 target and never let lose is a Serdoa-trademark I find the continuing exchange between those 2 rather detrimental for town. So much that I wonder if the contentious exchange isn't used as a cover for 2 wolves: Making lot of posts looking active while neither runs the risk to get lynched. Serdoa did make a thorough read-through of Adrien with the conclusion  

I don't have time left for the rest. Conclusion: That all does not look too good, low content, contradictions...

but today he returned to his preferred chewing-toy

SD:   Your today-vote looks bad to me. Think about it. If CMF is a wolf it would mean that 2 wolves were sitting on a useless vote while 1 of them was near the gallows. I guess this can happen (albeit I don't believe it) but if it happened the other 2 (assuming a 4 wolf setup) were most likely located on Bob. So SD whom of Commodore,scooter,GKC,Adrien  are the scumbuddies of Cyneheard and CMF and why. Please elaborate.

Lewwyn : Lewwyn can alsways be a wolf  and t would fit with his excitement. Also he is nice and friendly to me and that does look like a budding up. Usually I would say a wolf Lewwyn fits very well with a Gaspar night-kill. Alas Gaspar had pushed a wolf hard and might have been onto another (he listed pindi as number 2 suspect) so that kill is a nulltell.

Rowain, I like this post. This was a big part of pushing me away from you as a wolf. Right now, I feel better about Rowain as town.

So, quick hits on everyone with a vote not already mentioned:

Serdoa/naufragar, I feel moved towards the Serdoa-is-town side of the debate. I liked Serdoa coming up for air from his spat and sharing his thoughts on the wider game, and I agree that Serdoa being a wolf swapping off Bob is a bit of a stretch. Occam's Razor. Naufragar, for what it's worth, Lewwyn's interactions with you also rub me the wrong way. 

I think a nauf lynch would give interesting information - maybe a lot of interesting information - but in terms of a lynch most likely to catch a wolf, I still think Adrien is better. 

Pindicator/scooter: I like scooter's logic, as I've said. That might be creating a blindspot towards him right now, but I feel he's a weaker lynch target than Adrien. Scooter is open about his reasoning and has given lots of thought-filled posts. Adrien has not. Pindicator I'd be slightly more likely to vote for over scooter, but again, it doesn't feel like our best lynch. I can see the argument that pin has been skating a bit, but I thought he had a good day one and asked good questions. 

Also, no one is voting for Commodore at the moment, but after Adrien he's my second-most likely scum on the Bob vote. Like I said, he's been a bit quiet for my liking.

[pindicator]

I had to go re-read the start of this day because I only skimmed it with how busy yesterday was.  I wish I hadn't committed myself to so many things right now or that this game had started a week later - however, I have some time now.  (Later today I'm taking the pup on a hike with a friend - excited for that!)  I'm also probably not going to be on at the deadline tomorrow.  Taking the dog to the coast for the day and deadline is 9am local time; I hope to be on the road before then.  I will do my best to read and get a post up before I go.

Full disclosure:  I skimmed all the naufrager stuff.  Only have so much time and would rather stay focused on several trains of thought than scattered over all of them.

Scooter vs Lewwyn

I think this is a natural reaction by scooter.  I've played enough games with him to have a good feel for the guy and all this seems entirely in line with him.  Yes, Lewwyn, he is a bit mathematical.  He isn't a robot but when he doesn't have enough experience in something for a gut read he likes to go logically through it, so I could entirely see his view that he doesn't know how to play day 1 because that's a view I have had so long.  I feel like I'm learning to play day 1 better, but I still feel more comfortable when I have hard data, when that first name shows up in red.

@Scooter - now that you have that kind of data, what does that tell you about day 1 voting?  Have you gone back?  Start reading around post 240 until the end of the day and give me your thoughts.  You can dig earlier, but I'm not sure there was more than Gaspar on Cyneheard before that.  I still don't like your day 1, but it makes sense to me if you truly felt lost.  So now that you have evidence I want to see some pro-town work out of you.

Okay, you give some points in #511.  Agree that you should not meta-town Meiz; however he was one of the early pushers of Cyneheard in that section I referenced before.  Do you think a wolf Meiz would do so?  He does switch over to me later in the day despite voting for my target (AdrienIer) a little earlier.  

Lewwyn at the same time is being Lewwyn.  He will drill someone down when he gets them in his sights and he will make sure.  He gets false positives for it like he all do.  However, like I said before, I've dismissed the superwolf Lewwyn theory several times because his day 1 actions line up largely with how he says everything here.  I think I misread a piece of his about AdrienIer today and thought he was dismissing him entirely, but he isn't and that's also good town stuff.

Lewwyn's later response to my questioning about his views on AdrienIer vibe with my feel of a town Lewwyn.

The person who I expect to know both of these things, the person whom I feel has a good sense of people's personalities and how they act and who is pretty much famous for it here, and the person who has played enough games with scooter to know how he is well enough to know better also posted this:

As Lewwyn is implying, Scooter. His slime-levels make me uncomfortable voting with him even on Adrien.

I still don't trust you, Lewwyn. But if you had the cast-iron balls to post that mega Gaspar smear while pack-killing him, you deserve a while longer.

He's also been relatively quiet since.



Reading on...

I like and don't like Chevalier Mal Fet's long post on #498.  He sees the scooter argument well enough to defend him, but I think he's reaching with the Lewwyn scum to town to scum train of thought that he talks about.  I don't like any argument that says I skate - or rather, I think they're just looking at the post count and being sloppy with their reads to me.  I feel like I've made some solid reads even if I don't have a full opinion on everybody.

I don't like that half of his reads are "has been quiet".  That's not a read, that's a recap.  Still, it is better than silence yourself, but throw some theories out there and we'll vet them as a group.  Like you said, Lewwyn shook trees and it produced fruit, so shake some trees.

Rowain also suspecting Lewwyn does reinforce my suspicions as I like Rowain's game so far and him being early on Cyneheard gives him town points to me.  Still I lean Lewwyn as town right now.  Though Lewwyn was the one who posited Serial Killer after the night 1 results so perhaps he got cute with having extra game knowledge?


@Meiz

I'm not sure what you mean by "narrow attack".  I fall into scooter's line of thinking with Day 1 reads and if you recall past games with me you'd remember me not doing a lot of successful work early on.  Do you not like my reasoning on my suspicions for AdrienIer yesterday?  What are your thoughts on AdrienIer today?  Why the abrupt jump yesterday from finding him scummy to finding one of his biggest accusers (myself) scummy?  Was it just that you didn't like that feel of my posts, and that made you doubt your previous AdrienIer accusation?  As for other targets, when I read something I saw as scummy I called the person out on it then if their answer or some other information (i.e. new player not knowing RB meta) cast enough doubt on it in my mind I went looking elsewhere.  If AdrienIer gives me good stuff today it's possible it will happen again.

With the Lewwyn question about Bob:  there are some people here I have a better feel for than others.  Yourself, for instance, i don't have a good feel for despite playing several of these games with.  Lewwyn, Scooter, Commodore - I feel like I have a good read on their personality.  In addition, I had my day 1 suspicions of Lewwyn as an active wolf and remembering that Lewwyn had nabbed wolf-Bob on day 1 before I thought I could get information about both Lewwyn and Bob by asking Lewwyn his thoughts on the Bob train.  Except that didn't get me information, as Lewwyn's response was less than what I had hoped for.  It gave me suspicions on Lewwyn, and that combined with me not knowing how to read Bob's anger I felt I should go after my own reads.

I do like your post here (#523)

I also am in agreement with yours and scooters exchange about AdrienIer & Commodore (posts 544-546).


@AdrienIer

There you are!  
Yes, I agree that Superdeath gets town points for being the target of a Cyneheard attack.
And you go right back to voting me in 549.  Sigh.  My day 1 vote was based off what I thought to be a wolf slip, but I agree with you on Commodore.  Shall we test each other out?  Or do you just want to mention Commodore and vote me?


That all took me an hour to read and write up.  Have to get ready for other things, may not get back until after returning from the hike.

[BRickAstley]

Tally as of post 551:

Lynch votes
3 votes: AdrienIer (Rowain, Charriu, Chevalier Mal Fet)
3 votes: Scooter (Commodore, GeneralKilCavalry, Lewwyn)
2 votes: Pindicator (Meiz, AdrienIer)
1 votes: Chevalier Mal Fet (superdeath)
1 votes: Serdoa (naufragar)
1 votes: naufragar (Serdoa)
1 votes: Lewwyn (scooter)
1 votes: Commodore (pindicator)

Voting history:

Pindicator

Cyneheard

Cyneheard

AdrienIer

AdrienIer

Chevalier Mal Fet

AdrienIer

AdrienIer

Serdoa

AdrienIer

naufragar

Scooter

scooter

Lewwyn

Scooter

AdrienIer

Pindicator

Commodore

24 Hours (minus 3 minutes) Remaining.

[AdrienIer]

Pindi assuming I'm a villlager do you agree that it's likely that someone voting for me at the deadline is a wolf ? I assume that they didn't like the situation with 2 people around 5 votes including CH and a bunch of people voting all over the place, so starting a third train on a villager is great news for them.

I'll go along on Commodore if you want.