WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Rowain]

GeneralKilCavalry

[Charriu]

GeneralKilCavalry

Can we get a little more explanation for this vote?

[Rowain]

GeneralKilCavalry

Can we get a little more explanation for this vote?

I do like your post here but my conclusion is rather that Cyneheard protected GKC . GKC voted Cyneheard early on and then jumped to naufr 1 hour into the game and stayed there a long long time before he finally jumped on the Bob-wagon.  

[Serdoa]

Ok, due to some posts from AdrienIer and what he did or did not do in regards to Cyneheard I thought it worthwhile to check his contributions. I quickly though came to much more interesting facts. I started at the point of D1 when I switched to Cyneheard (as it seemed things heated up then):

• Serdoa switches from Bobchillingworth to Cyneheard
  

leading to this tally (votes not in right order, I have worked it backwards from a later tally with the vote history)

Bobchillingworth (7): Commodore, scooter, El Grillo, superdeath, GeneralKilCavalry, AdrienIer, Lewwyn
Cyneheard (4): Gaspar, Meiz, Serdoa, Rowain
superdeath (4): Chevalier Mal Fet, Cyneheard, Charriu, naufragar
AdrienIer (1): pindicator
Lewwyn (1): Bobchillingworth

And then the next two votes to happen are:

• naufragar switches from superdeath to Cyneheard
  
• Lewwyn switches from Bobchillingworth to Cyneheard (#318, his post makes obvious that he knows that is setting Cyneheard and Bob at equal votes)
  

leading to this:

Bobchillingworth (6): Commodore, scooter, El Grillo, superdeath, GeneralKilCavalry, AdrienIer
Cyneheard (6): Gaspar, Meiz, Serdoa, Rowain, naufragar, Lewwyn
superdeath (3): Chevalier Mal Fet, Cyneheard, Charriu
AdrienIer (1): pindicator
Lewwyn (1): Bobchillingworth

This is the state at post #318. And now the following move happens:

• Rowain switches from Cyneheard to Lewwyn
  

Rowain quotes Lewwyns post in which Lewwyn votes for Cyneheard, so he clearly knows that Cyneheard is now equal with Bob. His reasoning for switching from Cyneheard to Lewwyn? This:

So you believe that both Bob and Cyneheard are wolves? I don't buy that
Lewwyn

The next few minutes we have some discussion because that post is not clear in its meaning to me. (This is also the post that nauf questioned too, which led to that "buddy up / buddy with" discussion).

The end of it? Rowain posts:

Simply put I don't like how both trains built up.

That's the reason he left Cyneheard for a pointless Lewwyn vote. Really, we all know that at that point in time, 1:45 hours before the deadline, Lewwyn who had one vote from Bob will not get lynched. He has made enough effort D1 that I can't see town lynching him with basically no reasons given.

Now, it gets even more interesting:

• Charriu switches from superdeath to AdrienIer
  
• AdrienIer switches from Bobchillingworth to pindicator
  

That leaves us with the following tally:

Bobchillingworth (5): Commodore, scooter, El Grillo, superdeath, GeneralKilCavalry
Cyneheard (5): Gaspar, Meiz, Serdoa, naufragar, Lewwyn
superdeath (2): Chevalier Mal Fet, Cyneheard
AdrienIer (2): pindicator, Charriu
Lewwyn (2): Bobchillingworth, Rowain
pindicator (1): AdrienIer

So again, Cyneheard ties with Bob, not getting lynched only because of the tie-break rules.

Tne next two moves? These:

• Rowain switches from Lewwyn to AdrienIer
  
• Lewwyn switches from Cyneheard to AdrienIer
  

This is the start and end of the push towards AdrienIer. Instigated by Lewwyn who, after Rowain explained his vote for Lewwyn and stated that he does not like how the trains on Bob and Cyne built up, asked Rowain how he feels about a AdrienIer-train.

Afterwards just 2 more votes

• AdrienIer switches from pindicator to Bobchillingworth - 15 minutes before deadline
  
• Lewwyn switches from AdrienIer to Cyneheard - 1 minute to spare
  

So, what do I make of this? I don't like how Rowain looks in that exchange. He was twice being the reason that tie between Cyneheard and Bob was ended with Cyneheard being on fewer votes. The first time he did it himself, the second time he jumped on the AdrienIer idea from Lewwyn, but without much consideration it seems. He just posts

@Lewwyn you mean like this AdrienIer

Afterwards there is just one more post before deadline. Meiz posted that he does not feel the Bob lynch, and asks what others think about pindicator. Rowains response

You are still voting Cyneheard.

I mean, that is close to stating "Move of my wolf-buddy and we can talk.". And afterwards all he does is posing questions to others that are boiling down to "You vote x, if x turns out y, what does that mean in your opinion?". That can be interesting questions to gain breadcrumbs for later, but they are also easy to make as wolf without giving away your own stance. It also tends to not aggravate people as much as a more ... direct ... style.

Rowain

[pindicator]

Pindi assuming I'm a villlager do you agree that it's likely that someone voting for me at the deadline is a wolf ? I assume that they didn't like the situation with 2 people around 5 votes including CH and a bunch of people voting all over the place, so starting a third train on a villager is great news for them.

I'll go along on Commodore if you want.

If you are scum, then it makes sense most of the wolves would be on Bob or elsewhere.  I can't see all the wolves putting their eggs into one basket so early by having all of them on Bob though, even if you and Cyneheard were wolves as the #2 and #3 vote-getters.

If you are town, then there was probably a wolf voting for you at the end: me, Charriu, Rowain, and Lewwyn (i'm counting Lewwyn despite his last minute switch).  It would make sense for them to be scattered among other targets.

[Meiz]

@Meiz

I'm not sure what you mean by "narrow attack".  I fall into scooter's line of thinking with Day 1 reads and if you recall past games with me you'd remember me not doing a lot of successful work early on.  Do you not like my reasoning on my suspicions for AdrienIer yesterday?  What are your thoughts on AdrienIer today?  Why the abrupt jump yesterday from finding him scummy to finding one of his biggest accusers (myself) scummy?  Was it just that you didn't like that feel of my posts, and that made you doubt your previous AdrienIer accusation?  As for other targets, when I read something I saw as scummy I called the person out on it then if their answer or some other information (i.e. new player not knowing RB meta) cast enough doubt on it in my mind I went looking elsewhere.  If AdrienIer gives me good stuff today it's possible it will happen again.

By narrow I'm referring to you not making serious attack on anyone else except Adrien. You quickly backed off from Lewwyn (#184, #199). Jumped on Commodore's post for Gaspar-Lewwyn wolves theory but never went forward with it (#199). It was just mentioned and then forgotten. Asked Rowain to contain more meat&bone to his posts (#218). Voted Bob here as well but without any own arguments. And finally the push on Adrien (#290). If you're a wolf, you played a game where none of the people you accused would have any reasons to fight back, except your last vote for Adrien. On a timing where Cyneheard was starting to pick up heat. I don't mind not having good reads on day 1, but I'm also not finding you trying to dig deeper and getting a better resolution for your suspicions. IMO skating by is very valid summary of your day 1.

I don't mind the accusation itself against Adrien. I wouldn't even be surprised if he turns up wolf in the end. I do find it hard to believe that you are wolves together, which is why you name is red at the moment. The same goes for yesterday, I had you already on my radar for the quiet play and the suspicion post for just one player (and not talking of other potential wolves) increased the suspicion, thus trying to start the train on you.

[Rowain]

@ Serdoa This has ben knowledge since the estart of the day and only now you see this? Meiz explicitly asked about may vote some time ago.

Strange that you come to this insight right after I voted GKC or Adrien + pindi voted Commodore.

[Commodore]

I had to go re-read the start of this day because I only skimmed it with how busy yesterday was.  I wish I hadn't committed myself to so many things right now or that this game had started a week later - however, I have some time now.  (Later today I'm taking the pup on a hike with a friend - excited for that!)  I'm also probably not going to be on at the deadline tomorrow.  Taking the dog to the coast for the day and deadline is 9am local time; I hope to be on the road before then.  I will do my best to read and get a post up before I go.

Full disclosure:  I skimmed all the naufrager stuff.  Only have so much time and would rather stay focused on several trains of thought than scattered over all of them.

The person who I expect to know both of these things, the person whom I feel has a good sense of people's personalities and how they act and who is pretty much famous for it here, and the person who has played enough games with scooter to know how he is well enough to know better also posted this:

As Lewwyn is implying, Scooter. His slime-levels make me uncomfortable voting with him even on Adrien.

I still don't trust you, Lewwyn. But if you had the cast-iron balls to post that mega Gaspar smear while pack-killing him, you deserve a while longer.

He's also been relatively quiet since.

That all took me an hour to read and write up.  Have to get ready for other things, may not get back until after returning from the hike.

Feel you about the time crunch at the moment, have it myself. So's I'm clear, you're voting me because:
A. You see Scooter as sincerely flustered. 
B. You think I'm knowledgeable and savvy enough to see this, ergo I'm deliberately misreading his beflusterment.
C. Thus, Commodore is a wolf (are we all accepting the logic of one of Commodore/Adrien/Scooter at least is scum?)
Okay, I can follow this fairly simple logic. I don't agree, though. Scooter is savvy enough to choose to express annoyance or not, he is absolutely in control of that. Nothing I've been reading has contradicted my initial impression of "pressured wolf" here.

[Meiz]

You are still voting Cyneheard.

I mean, that is close to stating "Move of my wolf-buddy and we can talk.". And afterwards all he does is posing questions to others that are boiling down to "You vote x, if x turns out y, what does that mean in your opinion?". That can be interesting questions to gain breadcrumbs for later, but they are also easy to make as wolf without giving away your own stance. It also tends to not aggravate people as much as a more ... direct ... style.

Rowain

I think his question for me was more of an accusation (due to thinking we had 2 villagers on top, and me trying to start train agaisnt pind?), which aligns for his thoughts today against me & explanation of his voting at the end. So I think he is being consistent with this train of thought at least. I'm personally leaning more town on Rowains play despite the vote.

[Meiz]

GeneralKilCavalry

Can we get a little more explanation for this vote?

I do like your post here but my conclusion is rather that Cyneheard protected GKC . GKC voted Cyneheard early on and then jumped to naufr 1 hour into the game and stayed there a long long time before he finally jumped on the Bob-wagon.  

I did post about this as well earlier, here. Very interested to hear GKC's thoughts on it despite not being my #1 for today.