WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Serdoa]

Btw: Just let me get that one straight as well: I don't say you are a wolf for certain Rowain. I say your voting pattern is funky on Day 1. I have gotten all the answers I can reasonably expect to get (though in a way I did not want).

So, what now? There are a ton of long posts I'm going to read now and then I'll reply to anything else I feel worth replying to.

[AdrienIer]

Can somebody explain why this sudden "either Adrien is a wolf or Pindi is a wolf" hype ? I think Pindi might be a wolf but I'm nowhere near certain.

On another note, I'm not sure how active I'll be until deadline... I'll try to come by a few times to read and vote.

[Commodore]

Well that was a massive undertaking, CMF, thank you. Great read at 2:30am here with Littlest the Teether requiring rocking. That you've also gotten me vigged with that review dampens my enthusiasm somewhat, but I'll try and render my reads in a long post near the deadline on Labor Day so my death has benefits.

I think you're a good Sensing type who is getting pretty wigged out by an iNtuitive (https://www.myersbriggs.org/my-mbti-pers...uition.htm). ENTJ here, for what it's worth. I think we agree with the basic fact that if Scooter is a wolf, he's a good wolf. Spoiler alert:

Scooter is a good wolf.

My reads right now are weak, I'll admit, and most of them are getting a little more ruddy as time goes on. Superdeath you in particular need a little chatter here man.

[Commodore]

Can somebody explain why this sudden "either Adrien is a wolf or Pindi is a wolf" hype ? I think Pindi might be a wolf but I'm nowhere near certain.

+1 to this, I think I totally have missed the logic chain. They're both in my "might be wolves" bucket, fwiw.

[Meiz]

Rowain vs. Serdoa.

Serdoa is not wrong to point out Rowain's suspicious voting, and it's clear to me he read the events on his original accusation poist (#557). Thus I believe this is the first time he is analyzing it more closely. Rowain's accusation of the timing for this analysis is unfair.

I can also see Rowain's point in his accusation against Serdoa (#585). IMO wolf naufragar bussing Cyneheard is the less likely option and Serdoa is building his case around it. That being said, I don't get a malicious read from Serdoa at this point. Leaning more town for both of them.

I think Rowain's explanation for day 1 (#548) lines up with his actions. Lewwyn's original post indicates that the three wolves could be Bob, Cyneheard, Nauf (#318). I can see why that would cause alarm bells to go on for Rowain, as two wolves tying the lynch block seems very unlikely. Later Lewwyn explains (#328), which I can see lessening Rowain's suspicion of Lewwyn, and ultimately looking for a third option. I can relate to the nagging feeling of both Bob & Cyne being frustrated towns, with both disappearing when the lynch was about to happen. If we look at the votes alone, Rowain is a suspect. His rest of the play doesn't give me a wolf read, seems to be his standard town, being very up to date with the events of the game and making direct pokes at people he finds suspicious.

[Rowain]

@Adrien I don't know if it is a hype it is my opinion.

I explained my reasoning here:

My thoughts
Adrien - pindi:
pindi highlighted Adrien'S voting thereby binding cyneheard + Adrien + Comm. Now this can be 2 things) pindi is a genius and really hit the scum hard. Adrien has done a similar voting-pattern in the past (bringing up others when a wolfbuddy was in danger) or b) pindi is scum tying a wolf (Cynehear) with 2 villagers. What makes me stop from jumping on the pindi is a wolf-train is twofold: He did push for Adrien immediately today which is dangerous for a wolf and the attack from Meiz. My distrust of Meiz you can read further up.

[Meiz]

Can somebody explain why this sudden "either Adrien is a wolf or Pindi is a wolf" hype ? I think Pindi might be a wolf but I'm nowhere near certain.

+1 to this, I think I totally have missed the logic chain. They're both in my "might be wolves" bucket, fwiw.

I don't think anyone is going for that? One of them can be a wolf, probably not both together. If Adrien is a town, Pindicators push near deadline is very suspicious. If Adrien is wolf, Pind's push is more towny.
The votes are based on Adrien's play, not due to some fact that we have one wolf between these two.

[Meiz]

Can somebody explain why this sudden "either Adrien is a wolf or Pindi is a wolf" hype ? I think Pindi might be a wolf but I'm nowhere near certain.

+1 to this, I think I totally have missed the logic chain. They're both in my "might be wolves" bucket, fwiw.

Can I get your take on Pindicator that contains more than simple "could be a wolf" logic?

[Meiz]

And also your full read on scooter as CMF also requested:

"I really want more here. Why is scooter slimy? I've got lots of his posts up there. I don't see the sliminess at all - was it voting Adrien? But you were voting Adrien to start, too! This is undoing all the brownie points you earned. There's just no argument here. Why should I vote scooter? "because he's slimy." Why is he slimy? Well, unmentioned. Votes without reasons, I think, are scummy. Contrast this with scooter voting for Adrien (and for a while, Lewwyn, above). When you put them side by side like this, the contrast between the players is clear. "

[Serdoa]

... Ultimately, I think it's pretty clear the wolves were making an effort to keep Cyneheard safe for longer in order to have access to his abilities. That conclusion makes the following post confusing.

Serdoa, how do you feel about naufragars vote on Cyneheard? https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid745032

I've written in my long post now about it, but as that might get lost in all the discussion, so in short: I think the wolves accepted that Cyneheard might get lynched and naufragar jumped on him in case it happened.

This strikes me as a really weird opinion. As I mention up above, does it not bother you at all that Cyneheard was a power wolf? Depending on what his JOAT abilities are, he's a potential win condition. I feel like that's a huge deal, and I find it really hard to fathom the wolves would merely accept the fact that they could lose him on the very first day. Do you not think that's a big deal?

Anyway, I'm returning to my gut and voting AdrienIer. It feels like the best bet right now. I feel like Adrien being a wolf would explain the action seemingly being a bit more zen late in day 1 despite a power wolf being on the bubble. If Adrien's got some sort of wolf power too, maybe they had no choice but to hang on tight and hope Bob gets lynched. I definitely don't buy Serdoa's explanation above that they simply accepted it, so this is my best stab at an explanation.

I feel you are very crafty with words here scooter. I can't explain it in English unfortunately, but the way you worded these questions towards me is... odd. You ask questions, but it feels as though you actually make an observation or conclusion already with it. As if you condemn me, but without saying it. 

Anyhow, as I did look into these votes yesterday more, I admit that I should have given this more thought as well. At the time though I simply felt it made sense, as my feeling was and is that Cyneheard really wasn't feeling this game and having time issues. As I wrote (in the longer version that you did not quote), Cyneheard never answered me, even though I just wanted to know his opinion on other players and think it wasn't a far stretch to expect me to move on if he answered. So he himself didn't even try to save him. 

But lets look at it from both sides:

a) if they accepted that his fate might be the lynch, naufragars vote isn't doing nauf favors
b) if they did not accept his and tried to save him, naufragar looks much better indeed, but Rowains votes become even more damning

I don't know which one it is, but I don't think assuming that they accepted that he might get lynched is out of the question. 

To tunnel vision past my Lewwyn interactions is one thing, but to ignore me bringing that up as a counter point entirely is willful. You do a quick oh let's look at GKC for a sec- nope, back to pindicator! But then you also over simplify and dismiss the long post from early today, saying that all I do is talk about Commodore and waste space. Do you see nothing of the interaction with AdrienIer there, nothing of the willingness to test that i might be wrong by seeing how he will vote on another suspicious target? Nothing on the benefit of finding town reads in a game where i don't know the alignment of anyone else? Or do you see and intentionally choose to ignore that?

While this was not written about me, I felt it a little. I still think my theories are valid, but I'm sorry nauf, I think some of those points might indeed be true about me as well and I probably have read everything you posted with a veil of "he is a wolf for certain" on my eyes. I will try to be fairer in my assessment and also take counter-points to you being a wolf into account.