WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[AdrienIer]

scooter.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Historically, Scooter isn’t a good wolf, he’s a great wolf.

Historically, Scooter isn’t a good wolf, he’s a great wolf.

His wolf play is also notoriously annoying one, forcing me to keep banging my head against him through most of the game and failing miserably to convince others. Not seeing that here.

Historically, Scooter isn’t a good wolf, he’s a great wolf.

His wolf play is also notoriously annoying one, forcing me to keep banging my head against him through most of the game and failing miserably to convince others. Not seeing that here.

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills for the last day because no one is listening about scooter being a wolf...

Could you make the case for me? As is pretty clear, right now I have scooter leaning town, the reasons I laid out above. I certainly think he's more likely town than Adrien or Commodore are. Right now, as best I understand it:

1)Voting for Bob on Day 1
2)Voting Adrien at the start of Day 2, after saying near the end of Day 1 that he "didn't see the case." 
3)The argument with you at the start of Day 2. 

Clearly, I'm missing something here, so lay it out for me. What makes scooter wolfy? There's very little to distinguish a great wolf from a good villager, so what should I be looking for? What makes scooter a better lynch than Adrien or Commodore?

I think we can also talk about the Serdoa/Naufragar/GKC dustup, too, and Meiz/pindicator, but the reason I'm not focusing on those at the moment is playing the odds - I think our best chance of a wolf is among the Bob voters, and of the people mentioned, only GKC was a Bob voter. 

Commodore, sorry for setting you up for a vig kill, but you still have some hours to convince us of your towniness! Please, make the case.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Taking another look at day 1 votes. This is a list of events as well, so putting it unders spoilers. I bolded my stronger conclusions.

Lewwyn is the first to make the attack, #254 (and the followup posts). Adrien votes Bob and goes to sleep, which on re-glance I'm giving a null read. The attention against Cyne is still low. Lewwyn then sidetracks to Bob, and Gaspar puts attention back to Cyneheard a bit later (#272). Lewwyn has already mentioned to Bob he'd rather vote Cyneheard but is trying to get info out from him. 

Scooter chimes in (#274), suspicious for Cyneheard's low-hanging vote and hoping to hear more.

Gaspar reinforces his suspicion against Cyneheard, #277

GKC's attention is on Cyneheard (#279). Distancing or not? I'm currently leaning more towards no.

Anyway, I would say the attention and suspicion on Cyneheard is quite high at this point, so wolves should be feeling a bit of pressure.

superdeath answers to Cyne (#281) and votes Bob. Still think it's more likely Cyneheard needed to make a concrete vote to appear active, and chose an easy target of superdeath. But do note this read is all based on what Cyneheard did, and we need to keep looking what superdeath does.

Commodore is very much on the fence in his post (#282), though preferring Bob. "Cyneheard is responding very strongly to what looks like a single vote". Can't really read this one way or another, null.

GKC defends superdeath and votes Bob #286.

Scooter post his list of lynch candidates (#287). Says he'd be villing to vote Cyneheard which adds more pressure to wolves if scooter is town.

Pindicator votes Adrien, #290

I think it's noteworthy that he does not comment on Bob or Cyneheard on why they would be town or scum. This is why I've referred his attack as narrow earlier. He is making the connection through Adrien's play though. As soon as Commodore was pushed, Adrien votes superdeath. And as soon as Cyneheard gets attention, Adrien votes Bob. But he is not opening up on why Cyneheard is scum, and therefore making Adrien's vote a potential save move.

If Adrien is a wolf, Pindicator is a very insightful player. Or, Pindicator has too much info which allows him to make these connections as he would already know Cyneheard's role (and start the layout already in his earlier post of prodding Adrien's view on Cyneheard).

Continuing the events, I think my push for Cyneheard (#294) adds very much pressure for wolves.

Charriu questions commodore (#297) and does not mention others.

Rowain votes Cyneheard (#299). One could argue this is the point where wolves are safe to start distancing, but for now I'm giving a small town lean for rowain for this push, despite him switching in the end. It pushes the attention towards Cyneheard.

But more notably this goes for Serdoa's vote (#304). He votes Bob, then realizes he's just putting 10th vote on Bob. I think it's pro-town move to not just pile on Bob's bad play, but instead push another suspicious player up as a lynch candidate. This just reinforces my feeling for Serdoa as town.

The votes are now:

Bob (7): Commodore,scooter,El Grillo, AdrienIer,Lewwyn, SD,GKC
SD (4): CMF,naufragar,Charriu,Cyneheard
Cyneheard (4): Gaspar,Meiz,Rowain,Serdoa
AdrienIer (1): pindi
Lewwyn (1):  Bob

Adrien chimes in (#307). "Ok I got to reread Bob and Cyneheard, I'm staying on Bob. Cyneheard had some good posts looking into people, Bob basically hasn't."
Now this is suspicious, because Cyneheard's posts have not had much content. Adrien does not analyze why people are suspecting & voting for Cyne, but instead takes a very "policy lynch" stance.

Serdoa start to dig deeper into Cyneheards posts (#309).

And then naufragar piles agaisnt Cyneheard (#312). "I'm content enough to vote Cyneheard, partly for the reasons others have mentioned (odd interactions with Superdeath, early weaker posts), partly because I suspect wolves pushed Bob and want to jump off to leave village holding the bag, so getting Cyneheard up there might provoke a reaction."
You can see the voting tally above, so his vote puts Cyneheard as a very real lynch candidate. Occam's razor says he is more likely town for this push.

Commodore is not interested in the current piling against Cyneheard (#315). So to me that signals he's not interested in digging what the Cyneheard voters are about, but is instead content to keep voting Bob. I do find this suspicious.

CMF is very much on the fence (#316) and keeps his vote on superdeath. The action itself is suspicious but his posts today made me put him quite firmly in the town camp. It fits with the unsure feeling all town has on day 1.

Lewwyn pushes Cyneheard even with Bob #318. This aligns very well with his original thoughts on Cyneheard, so I don't think he's doing a wolf gambit.

Rowain switches away from Cyneheard and to Lewwyn (#320). I've talked about this before, very suspicious move in itself (and enhanced with the lack of his own input on why Cyneheard is wolf), but still leaning more town on him based on rest of his play.

Pindicator post I do find wolfy (#324). He is still focusing on Adrien and not taking a firm stance on why Bob or Cyneheard should be lynched, or if one of them looks town. There is minor shade thown against Lewwyn as well, potentially hoping Rowain to keep pushing in that direction.

Charriu's post falls into the same bucket (#327). The vote itself is very potential move to save Cyneheard. And like Pindicator, he doesn't take any stance on Bob vs. Cyneheard. Both of these are posted in a time when Adrien is not a serious candidate for the lynch. I feel like at this point town should be taking a close look on who's on top and give their comments and preferences on them.

And no, I'm not damning people for looking for their best lynch targets 2 hours before the deadline is up. But with the light of knowing Cyneheard was a wolf, the lack of contribution to that discussion is suspicious to me.

Adrien switched his vote to Pindicator and has today used it in his defense, as the switch put Cyneheard closer to lynch. I think this is a null tell, as he always had the option to go back (which hi did in the end as well).

In the end Pindicator did comment on the Bob votes (#367). No mention of Cyneheard though.

And now off to fetch my bone, woof!

If I can summarize, you're suspicious of Adrien, pin, and Commodore especially, a bit of shade on Charriu and Rowain, and you have Lewwyn, nauf, GKC, and myself leaning town atm?

[Meiz]

Taking another look at day 1 votes. This is a list of events as well, so putting it unders spoilers. I bolded my stronger conclusions.

Lewwyn is the first to make the attack, #254 (and the followup posts). Adrien votes Bob and goes to sleep, which on re-glance I'm giving a null read. The attention against Cyne is still low. Lewwyn then sidetracks to Bob, and Gaspar puts attention back to Cyneheard a bit later (#272). Lewwyn has already mentioned to Bob he'd rather vote Cyneheard but is trying to get info out from him. 

Scooter chimes in (#274), suspicious for Cyneheard's low-hanging vote and hoping to hear more.

Gaspar reinforces his suspicion against Cyneheard, #277

GKC's attention is on Cyneheard (#279). Distancing or not? I'm currently leaning more towards no.

Anyway, I would say the attention and suspicion on Cyneheard is quite high at this point, so wolves should be feeling a bit of pressure.

superdeath answers to Cyne (#281) and votes Bob. Still think it's more likely Cyneheard needed to make a concrete vote to appear active, and chose an easy target of superdeath. But do note this read is all based on what Cyneheard did, and we need to keep looking what superdeath does.

Commodore is very much on the fence in his post (#282), though preferring Bob. "Cyneheard is responding very strongly to what looks like a single vote". Can't really read this one way or another, null.

GKC defends superdeath and votes Bob #286.

Scooter post his list of lynch candidates (#287). Says he'd be villing to vote Cyneheard which adds more pressure to wolves if scooter is town.

Pindicator votes Adrien, #290

I think it's noteworthy that he does not comment on Bob or Cyneheard on why they would be town or scum. This is why I've referred his attack as narrow earlier. He is making the connection through Adrien's play though. As soon as Commodore was pushed, Adrien votes superdeath. And as soon as Cyneheard gets attention, Adrien votes Bob. But he is not opening up on why Cyneheard is scum, and therefore making Adrien's vote a potential save move.

If Adrien is a wolf, Pindicator is a very insightful player. Or, Pindicator has too much info which allows him to make these connections as he would already know Cyneheard's role (and start the layout already in his earlier post of prodding Adrien's view on Cyneheard).

Continuing the events, I think my push for Cyneheard (#294) adds very much pressure for wolves.

Charriu questions commodore (#297) and does not mention others.

Rowain votes Cyneheard (#299). One could argue this is the point where wolves are safe to start distancing, but for now I'm giving a small town lean for rowain for this push, despite him switching in the end. It pushes the attention towards Cyneheard.

But more notably this goes for Serdoa's vote (#304). He votes Bob, then realizes he's just putting 10th vote on Bob. I think it's pro-town move to not just pile on Bob's bad play, but instead push another suspicious player up as a lynch candidate. This just reinforces my feeling for Serdoa as town.

The votes are now:

Bob (7): Commodore,scooter,El Grillo, AdrienIer,Lewwyn, SD,GKC
SD (4): CMF,naufragar,Charriu,Cyneheard
Cyneheard (4): Gaspar,Meiz,Rowain,Serdoa
AdrienIer (1): pindi
Lewwyn (1):  Bob

Adrien chimes in (#307). "Ok I got to reread Bob and Cyneheard, I'm staying on Bob. Cyneheard had some good posts looking into people, Bob basically hasn't."
Now this is suspicious, because Cyneheard's posts have not had much content. Adrien does not analyze why people are suspecting & voting for Cyne, but instead takes a very "policy lynch" stance.

Serdoa start to dig deeper into Cyneheards posts (#309).

And then naufragar piles agaisnt Cyneheard (#312). "I'm content enough to vote Cyneheard, partly for the reasons others have mentioned (odd interactions with Superdeath, early weaker posts), partly because I suspect wolves pushed Bob and want to jump off to leave village holding the bag, so getting Cyneheard up there might provoke a reaction."
You can see the voting tally above, so his vote puts Cyneheard as a very real lynch candidate. Occam's razor says he is more likely town for this push.

Commodore is not interested in the current piling against Cyneheard (#315). So to me that signals he's not interested in digging what the Cyneheard voters are about, but is instead content to keep voting Bob. I do find this suspicious.

CMF is very much on the fence (#316) and keeps his vote on superdeath. The action itself is suspicious but his posts today made me put him quite firmly in the town camp. It fits with the unsure feeling all town has on day 1.

Lewwyn pushes Cyneheard even with Bob #318. This aligns very well with his original thoughts on Cyneheard, so I don't think he's doing a wolf gambit.

Rowain switches away from Cyneheard and to Lewwyn (#320). I've talked about this before, very suspicious move in itself (and enhanced with the lack of his own input on why Cyneheard is wolf), but still leaning more town on him based on rest of his play.

Pindicator post I do find wolfy (#324). He is still focusing on Adrien and not taking a firm stance on why Bob or Cyneheard should be lynched, or if one of them looks town. There is minor shade thown against Lewwyn as well, potentially hoping Rowain to keep pushing in that direction.

Charriu's post falls into the same bucket (#327). The vote itself is very potential move to save Cyneheard. And like Pindicator, he doesn't take any stance on Bob vs. Cyneheard. Both of these are posted in a time when Adrien is not a serious candidate for the lynch. I feel like at this point town should be taking a close look on who's on top and give their comments and preferences on them.

And no, I'm not damning people for looking for their best lynch targets 2 hours before the deadline is up. But with the light of knowing Cyneheard was a wolf, the lack of contribution to that discussion is suspicious to me.

Adrien switched his vote to Pindicator and has today used it in his defense, as the switch put Cyneheard closer to lynch. I think this is a null tell, as he always had the option to go back (which hi did in the end as well).

In the end Pindicator did comment on the Bob votes (#367). No mention of Cyneheard though.

And now off to fetch my bone, woof!

If I can summarize, you're suspicious of Adrien, pin, and Commodore especially, a bit of shade on Charriu and Rowain, and you have Lewwyn, nauf, GKC, and myself leaning town atm?

I'm unsure on GKC, as I still find it strange he never went back to suspect / vote Cyneheard despite others being heavily in favor. But it's day 1 where Bob & Cyne were about the same level, so it's hard to make any strong conclusions out of it. Charriu and Rowain are suspicious based on their day 1 votes. Otherwise I have a townread on Rowain's general play, and I did like Charriu's updated list for the events when I prompted him. His first list does nag my mind, but It's explainable if he mostly went through his old notes.

But yes, my clear preference today is either Adrien or Pind lynch. Heart says it's Pind, but Adrien's play is very easy for wolf to pull through. Commodore is hanging there as a third, some of his posts give a good feeling but most of his posts are hard to get a read on and easy for wolf to craft as well.

[Meiz]

I would add, I'm leaning more town on scooter.

[Lewwyn]

So I'm going to lay out exactly why Scooter is wolfish. So much of this I thought should be clear through Scooter and I's interaction earlier in the day, but I don't think people are seeing what I'm seeing in his responses.

Let's go back to Day 1 Lynch first:

Yeah, if Bob gets saved last-minute so we can lynch a villager, I'm going to have some strong day 2 thoughts about a couple people who seemed determined to save him.

Two things:

1) Who is determined to save him?

2) I think its very counter productive to try and make people afraid of voting for what they feel is best.

1) Well it's interesting that Gaspar was the first vote on Bob right after I was the first to point out Bob looked suspect, and then after Bob got into a lynchable position, suddenly he "doesn't like the way the train formed on him" and starts looking for other options, despite Bob showing up in the middle of this and engaging in blatantly anti-town behavior?


2) You're right, and I should have worded that differently. But I don't love how much cover we're giving wolves right now either.

Scooter if you think Gaspar is a wolf trying to save Bob, but Now he's on Cyne, How about coming to vote for Adrien?

What's the case for Adrien? I have a hard time seeing it. I'm open to it, but I'm struggling to see what we gain from keeping Bob around.

In these two posts I've called out Scooter for threatening people who move off Bob. He seems very intent on Bob being the lynch, but then he seems (IMO pretends) to be open about moving off Bob himself. He says he doesn't know what the case is against Adrien, but he's open to it. Why is he open to moving off Bob when just moments before he was worried about people moving off Bob???

He then proceeds to stay on Bob. Fine. But all of this is important because of how he is later trying to retcon this.

I come back to his first main post of Day 2

The obvious wolf play was to vote for Bob since Cyneheard was up for a vote, but of course the wolves are not all going to do that. Clearly Cyneheard didn't. Feels nearly certain to be 1-2 wolf votes on Bob. We might reasonably guess there are no wolf votes on Cyneheard because it was close, and there were other options. There's one big caveat to that, though. If AdrienIer is a wolf, that might put them in an awkward spot of not wanting to all pile on Bob, but not wanting to get one of their own lynched if #2 and #3 were both up there. In that case, you might see them spread out a bit more and hold their breath.


I haven't gone through past posts or anything, but my current inclination based on all this is to lynch AdrienIer. He would have been my #2 choice last round, and the night actions make him look worse. Chevalier is another I'm curious about with his seeming throwaway vote, though it would be awfully sloppy for two wolves to both do that on the same target. I did think it was weird overall that we didn't coalesce onto the top 2-3 targets on Day 1, which I think is generally what you want to do as the village. Bob getting lynched with only 6/17 votes feels pretty bad.

First the obvious wolf play is not to vote Bob. Scooter is a vet he knows this, so he says not all wolves are going to do this. Wolves try not to be obvious I agree. There is definitely a chance of 1-2 wolf votes on Bob, but it is NOT a near certainty at all. But his logic here about Adrien being a wolf is BAD. He is saying that because Adrien might be a wolf that would mean they want to spread out MORE. Wouldn't Adrien being a wolf mean they concentrate more on Bob? The whole explanation is spaghetti. There aren't that many wolves in the game. Cynheard was voting for SD, the other 3? wolves could be anywhere. What is Scooter trying to say in this paragraph? A whole lot of nonsense.

The last paragraph here is where I REALLY get suspicious. He says Adrien is his #2 choice last round. #2 choice?? But you said what's the case? And you didn't want people to move off Bob? But even more important Why is Adrien more suspect after the night actions? You say that but you never explain WHY?

Next:

So that latest Naufragar post raised my eyebrows in the same way it seemingly did for GKC. Serdoa was basically the reason Cyneheard was on the chopping block yesterday. I'm not clearing anyone, but he's in my top 2-3 most likely villagers at this point. Such a strange post.

Between Bob and cyne, I felt Bobs I reaction was a 50/50 on him being town or scum, the fact that it was so easy also made me feel more mislynchy.

I mean, I felt about 50/50 too on Bob, but those are great odds on day 1! I'll flip that coin every single time. It was so easy because nobody coalesced on an alternative. He only got 1/3 of the votes, which is super low for a lynch. Yet, when I tried to hold people's feet to the fire the other day to push people to vote meaningfully, you got mad about it. You can't have it both ways. I'm totally down for Adrien today, but I trusted my gut rather than throw out 2 days of info for a last-minute dogpile because another player whose alignment I didn't know wanted me to. I'll put it this way - if Bob came up wolf, I was 100% targeting you or Gaspar today. Sorry that I was wrong on Bob, but I still think it was the best choice given the limited info. The info has changed, so now my vote is on Adrien.

This post comes at the beginning of our interaction. Here Scooter is reacting to my earlier post on why I chose Cyne over Bob, but Scooter seems to have snipped out all the part about why I felt Cyne was more scummy than Bob and latched onto the 50/50 about Bob being town. His discussion here about trying to hold people's feet to the fire and me getting mad about it is wrong A) because I didn't get mad, I thought it was scummy. B) I wasn't trying to have it both ways, this was my explanation of what I did so why is that factoring into your vote of Adrien. At no point here does he explain why Adrien is more scummy now. He says the info has changed? You have to actually say how things have changed and made Adrien more suspect because IMO they didn't change how scummy he is.

Scooter, how do you feel about commodore? You voted for him yesterday and then sort of dropped off and both of you ended up voting for Bob. I called you out about the threat of the next day, but actually you posted that after commodore said we were trying to save Bob. How do you read comma behavior at the end of the day there and overall?

Well... I don't know how to say this other than Commodore looks bad for the same reasons AdrienIer and I do. The night actions make all 3 of us look pretty bad for similar reasons. I think there's a high chance one of us is a wolf. I know I'm village, and there were several people pretty sold on Adrien even before all the night actions, so that's why my vote is there right now. But yes, I'm skeptical of Commodore now. My vote yesterday on him was mostly to pressure him into giving more detailed thoughts. That was early enough that I didn't really have that strong of a feeling on him, but things have changed.

Again here is voting for Adrien based off what? Voting for him because other people have strong suspicions of him and because he's one of the 3 on Bob that could be wolves... Last I checked 6 people voted for Bob and 5 are still alive. And you Scooter are included in that. Again Scooter is not providing any real wolf hunting in terms of Adrien. So I press him and he responds:

You are voting for Adrien based off what? The night actions? Why not Comm then instead? Adrien at least has the I was voting for my life defense. Also if you are voting for him apparently not for any of his posts but his actions. Who would you vote for based on their posts? I haven't seen anything from you about what you actually think would make someone scum based on your read of their posting. In fact, in this post, in the first three paragraphs you 1) talk about meta and the night actions, 2) Say a few good town bets 3) speculate about what wolves would do. I'm not seeing anything from you in the way of actualy pin downable suspicions.

The night actions. I'll vote for Commodore too, I don't care. My vote is on Adrien because I'm using the gut of people who read yesterday more accurately as a tie-breaker.

But you want me to decide based on posts - why? I think 90% of post analysis posts in WW are a gigantic waste of time. They boil down to "I don't like this person's thinking/writing style, so they must be a wolf." It's the astrology of Werewolf. Day 1 was just full of this stuff, and I think it's virtually all completely stupid. I'd rather look at hard evidence which is votes, which is why I wanted a paper trail to be as big as possible for today. Trying to puzzle out players based on motivations and analyzing results (thanks Civ4) has always been what I'm better at anyway rather than parsing wording in posts in a game I haven't played in 8 years.

As for why Adrien. I think it's incredibly likely 1-2 wolves were on Bob, purely for numbers and meta reasons. I know I'm innocent, so that's out. Superdeath is the most unlikely, so I'm crossing him out for now. GKC has given me mild town leanings, so I'm lightly scratching him out. Less sold on that, but I'm trying to narrow this down. That leaves Commodore and Adrien. I would be happy to vote for either at the time I'm writing this.

Between the two, Adrien has two things going for him. 1) People who had a better read than me were pretty skeptical of him even before the night phase. I place a little bit of value in that. 2) The end of Day 1 was weirdly quiet considering we had a wolf quite close to the top, and a lot of players parked on third parties, which in theory should have made the wolves jumpier because there was a lot of potential for last minute vote swings. I was surprised it never happened, actually. That is weird, but it's less weird if Adrien is a wolf. In that case, they were in a precarious position, so they should just hold their breath and hang on tight and not risk the whole thing coming down on them.

First Scooter admits to voting Adrien based only on night actions. So it really has nothing to do with Adrien's play. But then he says he's using the gut of other people to determine a tie-breaker. But then he sais 90% of post analysis in WW are giant waste of time, but you are using other people's analysis to determine your vote . Basically wolf scooter is using other people as the fall man. "Oh adrien was innocent I trusted these people not my fault." Pretty classic Wolf scooter.

The next meta reasons. Why is superdeath the most unlikely? What? He's barely posted today and actually feels really scummy. Is it because Cyneheard attacked him? Because wolves never attack other wolves... right Scooter? GKC gives you town leanings? So is that your feeling? I thought you said you couldn't trust feelings? At least when it comes to actually reasoning your vote we can't trust feelings I guess? These are contradictions. and smooth rules for me and not for thee moments.

Back to Adrien, 1) Other people say he's scum on their read I place more value in that than my own read? What is your actual read? You are not scum hunting. 2) This no movement is a bad argument. If adrien is a wolf it could be true, if adrien is not a wolf it makes even more sense for there to be less switching! The opposite reasoning should be applied? CMF, this is good logic to you? What?

Next I call him out

I haven't gone through past posts or anything, but my current inclination based on all this is to lynch AdrienIer. He would have been my #2 choice last round, and the night actions make him look worse. Chevalier is another I'm curious about with his seeming throwaway vote, though it would be awfully sloppy for two wolves to both do that on the same target. I did think it was weird overall that we didn't coalesce onto the top 2-3 targets on Day 1, which I think is generally what you want to do as the village. Bob getting lynched with only 6/17 votes feels pretty bad.

My bold. He would have been #2? But you didn't know the case? How do you reconcile this?

I didn't have a case for anyone yesterday. It's Day 1. There's no hard evidence. Anyone who was more than like 60% sure they had a vote on a wolf is super naive. He would have been my second choice because it would have provided a lot of info based on where votes were swinging. I've beaten this drum to death, but it's my opinion on how to play this game. The purpose of Day 1 is to get hard info. An Adrien lynch would have happened via late swing, and I was loosely tempted because it would have told me a lot about Bob and Cyneheard based on who was advocating for that late swing. But overall, I thought the case on every player was pretty weak. Because it was Day 1.

And yet, even on Day 1 we almost lynched a wolf by 1 vote. I don't think that was luck and people did have cases, did make cases. You are now saying that Day 1 you have no cases and you are only voting based on the information swings would provide... And yet you asked me what the case on Adrien was when I asked if you'd switch. Why did the case on Adrien even matter to you at that time if you don't believe there can be any accuratte cases on Day 1?

I cared a lot more on why you so badly wanted someone else to get lynched when you were on Bob. Like I said, if Bob was a wolf, in my mind you were 100% a wolf too. You were practically begging people to switch off, and to me there seemed to be no reason for it at all. I wanted you on the record before the votes were counted because you felt strongly enough to do a last minute vote swap, which I thought was odd. And like I said, I toyed with the idea of joining you, but I decided against it.


Also, yes, I'd say the fact that we almost lynched a wolf by 1 vote was luck. Based on random chance, a wolf finishing in the top-2 is about a 50/50 dice roll if we all voted randomly. You were really suspicious of Gaspar and posted a big thing on it end of night 1. How's that take based on nothing but posts looking? I'm not judging, I whiffed a bunch too. On Day 1, only a few people have info, and they're the baddies. So I spent most of my energy watching for people who voted like they knew something. You were one of those people, but the result looks good (but not bulletproof) for your innocence, so here we are.

There's a lot here about creating reads by switching or not switch and in the end Scooter doesn't really provide any payoff. He defends his vote and his non vote by saying that they provide him with reads. But look he hasn't made any reads based off those swings in the end because there wasn't a lot of movement. All of this is a time waster and spaghetti. I asked him how Adrien could be his #2 when he didn't even know the case and he says based on swings. But then why was he voting for Bob? it was 50/50 coiinflip on him being a wolf or town. How did he get to 50/50 on Bob though? Surely there is a reason or a case to vote on Bob then. There's no way that Bob is just 50/50. If Bob is 50/50 in your mind then you have a read! ANd the case mattered enough for you to be suspicious and vote Bob! But now that reading is 90% a waste of time you don't have one on Adrien but other people do so its okay to vote for him.

He's a scooter wolf weaving all of these misleading rationalizations and being as slippery as possible

Finally the set up for the next day:

Scooter, your take on Commodore?

If Adrien is innocent, he's likely a wolf. A lot of what he says is pretty wishy-washy and a bit non-committal, which is my other concern. I don't think I ever played WW with him, so I don't know if that's typical for him in these games, but it strikes me as vaguely out of character for him.

Gotta get those dominoes in place. And again Why determine Commodore's leanings one way or another other than to say I don't know he could be a wolf and if this other guy is town he's definitely a wolf. Scooter trusts everybody else's reads and never provides his own on people he migh actually vote for. Instead Scooter is the wishy-washy one and refuses to actually take a pin-downable stand.

Scooter is a wolf guys. I don't know if Adrien is a wolf, He could be, or he may not be, but I'm more certain of any other person that Scooter is a wolf.

[Lewwyn]

Historically, Scooter isn’t a good wolf, he’s a great wolf.

Historically, Scooter isn’t a good wolf, he’s a great wolf.

His wolf play is also notoriously annoying one, forcing me to keep banging my head against him through most of the game and failing miserably to convince others. Not seeing that here.

Historically, Scooter isn’t a good wolf, he’s a great wolf.

His wolf play is also notoriously annoying one, forcing me to keep banging my head against him through most of the game and failing miserably to convince others. Not seeing that here.

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills for the last day because no one is listening about scooter being a wolf...

Could you make the case for me? As is pretty clear, right now I have scooter leaning town, the reasons I laid out above. I certainly think he's more likely town than Adrien or Commodore are. Right now, as best I understand it:

1)Voting for Bob on Day 1
2)Voting Adrien at the start of Day 2, after saying near the end of Day 1 that he "didn't see the case." 
3)The argument with you at the start of Day 2. 

Clearly, I'm missing something here, so lay it out for me. What makes scooter wolfy? There's very little to distinguish a great wolf from a good villager, so what should I be looking for? What makes scooter a better lynch than Adrien or Commodore?

I've laid it out in my crosspost. He rationalizes different positions where it suits him and has an answer for everything. Wolf scooter is extremely hard to pin down because what he says sounds reasonable, but requires you to compare different posts and see the subtle shifts in stances over the days. He makes reads when its convenient and then claims reads aren't good when its convenient and claims other peoples reads are good when its convenient. and says hard evidence is most important when its convenient, but also interprets the hard evidence in his own way so its not actually hard evidence.

[scooter]

Don't really have any time today unfortunately, and I won't be around for the noon end of day. I'm sticking on Adrien and feel pretty decent about that vote. Bad time to see Lewwyn has written thousands more words about me, half of which are again deliberately misreading me, but there's really nothing I can do about that right now.

[Lewwyn]

One more addition:

Lewwyn

Done posting in this thread for awhile. Being deliberately misunderstood by a borderline troll is exhausting. I remember why I quit playing this game.

Scooter gets "angry" and runs off. I don't believe it. Instead of explaining HOW I'm deliberately misinterpreting him simply says I am. He doesn't say how or give any explanation. He uses ad hominem attack and does not rebut. He then posts after that he excises the borderline troll bit, but that's like accusing someone in in a courtroom and then the jury being told to disregard what they heard. The jury heard it. You smeared me and tried to get everyone to view my interaction with you as being a troll. Can't win the argument? Deflect and destroy the opponents reputation!


When Scooter does come back:

I think I've cooled off a bit.

The post above, though, is a great example of what I'm talking about. Lewwyn misintreprets Scooter's argument here, and I'm not sure if it's wilful or not. scooter wasn't saying "If Bob is a wolf, 100% chance L is, mathematical certainty," he was saying that Bob and Lewwyn's wolfiness was linked in his mind - ie, if Bob was a wolf, Lewwyn almost certainly was also, in his mind. Then, he throws in some subtle insinuations - "the fact that you exaggerate my play to make your stance seem more reasonable is telling." Telling of what? scooter thinking Lewwyn was loudly off the Bob train is scummy? I dunno, this is an aside, but I never like eyebrow waggling in posts. I prefer to be direct about my beliefs, think its' more helpful for all. 

Then he continues to misinterpet - "You are still saying that those reads and thinking about a players post matter. This is a bit contradictory wouldn't you say?...You're seemingly arguing that in the end it doesn't matter what we do on Day 1 which is just perposterous." Not how I read scooter at all - scooter is saying that on Day 1, who gets lynched is mostly a matter of randomness, because there's no hard data. The arguments and posts on Day 1 aren't pointless, though, because they're grist for the mill on Day 2 as data starts to come in. That seems...pretty elementary. 

Thank you. I was beginning to think I was crazy or somehow failing at the English language spectacularly to cause someone to not understand a lot of simple logic. I feel better. Pretty much every sentence of this is a perfect explanation for what I was trying to say. I genuinely don't know if Lewwyn just sees/reads this game so differently from me that he doesn't understand this, or if he's purposely misunderstanding me for some other reason, but this is summary is accurate from my perspective. I'm going to leave this stuff be and temporarily ignore Lewwyn for now because it's like 6 posts past productive. I'm going to keep my vote on him for now. It was an emotional vote and not a brain vote. I don't know which to follow right now, so I'll let others who are less invested decide what they think about Lewwyn's play so far this day. I'm torn between my head which says Lewwyn wolf would be surprising versus the feeling like I'm being trolled by a wolf who spies an easy mislynch target.

So Scooter does NOT explain how I'm misunderstanding him. Nor does he reply to my reply of CMF. Instead he simply let's CMF's reading of the situation stand. He doesn't do any of the work himself he's just using someone else's poor interpretation. Yes it's poor and CMF I don't trust you at all, remember you Misinterpreted and slandered me on Day 1, made mistakes and then you didn't go back and fix ANY of that, and now suddenly YOU are the voice of reason?????? NO!

But a proven unreliable narrorator is good enough for Scooter! The wolf that is.

[Lewwyn]

Don't really have any time today unfortunately, and I won't be around for the noon end of day. I'm sticking on Adrien and feel pretty decent about that vote. Bad time to see Lewwyn has written thousands more words about me, half of which are again deliberately misreading me, but there's really nothing I can do about that right now.

Liar. Misleader. Smearer. Convenient. Wolf.