WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[pindicator]

Holy crosspost. Pindicator is 100% a wolf.

And if you are not a wolf then this is the worst game I've ever played

[pindicator]

Alright, I think now is the right time to reveal some information about myself before looking elsewhere. I am a one-shot vigilante. I can use it exactly once all game to hit a target of my choice at night. My strategy with this role was to last as long as possible without attracting the attention of a wolf night-kill. My thinking was that the vigilante shot is more valuable the longer you can save it, because it's more likely to hit a wolf later, and it's a bigger game swing to get a wolf kill late in the game. The problem is that this goal meant I had to walk a tightrope of seeming useful enough to not lynch, while also looking slightly bad so the wolves would view me as a viable mislynch target.


Unfortunately, I felt cornered going into today. I feared I would get mislynched Day 3 after yet another round of bad news at the end of yesterday, so I decided to use my shot last night. I attempted to shoot pindicator. I have no idea WTF happened and why he's still alive, but surely he was saved in some way by his fellow wolves. I have no idea how, and I was hoping to comb through the wiki more tonight to try to figure it out. They could have some sort of wolf-doctor, but I would think I'd see a message indicating he was saved or something.


There are several other questions on my mind. First off, what in the world happened to Cyneheard night 1? That was not me. I toyed with the idea of taking a shot on Adrien, but it felt like way too big of a gamble when I also felt like I was positioned pretty well to last awhile. My best guess is we do indeed have a serial killer, though I'm puzzled as to why they'd pick Cyneheard. Targeting Meiz or Lewwyn makes more sense for a SK. The only other guess I have is there's another one-shot vig in the village, which I could see making sense too.


Going forward, I absolutely have to put my vote on pindicator for right now, because I cannot think of an explanation that paints him as anything other than a wolf. Somehow he got saved last night, and I'd like to figure out how. I'm limited on time today (holiday here in the US), but I'll have more time tomorrow or maybe tonight to look into it.

WTF kind of story is this scooter.

Today vote has to be between me and scooter. I think it's pretty clear which one of us has actually been trying to find scum and which one has been parroting arguments. But do not waste this day by staying fixated on me and scooter, there is another wolf out there. My money right now is on Rowain, between how he started acting the end of day 2 and how his voting record has gone. When scooter flips wolf, Rowain is next on my list.

[scooter]

Commodore, I'm very strapped for time today, so I can't deeply reply to your latest post just yet. However, I'd note that virtually every piece of evidence there looks equally bad for pindicator as it does me. Which is exactly why I targeted him last night.

I am interested that Pindicator seems to be everyone's favorite bus target.

I am interested that your conclusion is to be skeptical of the attention on pindicator and suspicious for me, when up until our HoF worthy crosspost, your evidence here ties us together pretty tightly.

[Rowain]

I find it very convenient that you both claim to not have shot on night 1 and both shot each other on night 2. Why do I get the impression if we lynch one of you he will flip wolf and then the other tries to sail smoothly to a win?

pindi you voted once for scooter on day 1 (rather early before you switched to Lewwyn) but not afterwards and never on day 2 when he was up for lynch. Oh and Meiz did mention you being lynchworthy a few times (end of day 1, several ztimes on day2) and look who died at night.

scooter you never voted for Pindi despite him being up for voting.

I find it hard to believe your stories.

[pindicator]

Yep, yep. Distance from your scum buddy. Good work there.

[naufragar]

Sorry for the flippancy. This interaction was ridiculous.

[Rowain]

I also do not like how Rowain was setting up dominos for today. And it just so happened that the vote that broke the scooter - AdrienIer tie was Rowain. Serdoa laid out Rowain's convenient voting day 1 to keep Cyneheard off the top. And Lewwyn was already challenging Rowain about lining up lymches for today.

Why didn't you shoot me? I did not hide my intention to see you lynched. If you were so sure I'm a wolf then why not shoot me?

[pindicator]

I also do not like how Rowain was setting up dominos for today. And it just so happened that the vote that broke the scooter - AdrienIer tie was Rowain. Serdoa laid out Rowain's convenient voting day 1 to keep Cyneheard off the top. And Lewwyn was already challenging Rowain about lining up lymches for today.

Why didn't you shoot me? I did not hide my intention to see you lynched. If you were so sure I'm a wolf then why not shoot me?

Because if I was wrong about scooter then I was potentially wrong about you. But as I said, Lewwyn's case at the end of day 2 makes a lot of sense when I finally got around to really reading it closely and not skimming it. To me that's why Lewwyn is dead, he was doing the most action, shaking the right branches, and had his sights on scooter. The evidence on you was only secondary to scooter being a wolf. With you it was how you were phrasing the AdrienIer lynch of having to be me or AdrienIer. Lewwyn rightly called you out on that kind of thinking, lining up dominoes like that.

However, that scooter comes out with this nuts gambit just seals it for me! I only wish I hadn't been messed with so you all could see it as clear as I get to. I will eat my hat, to use an old expression, if scooter is not scum.

[Serdoa]

I'm a little bit overwhelmed right now. From what others wrote I can see points for both of you being a wolf, but I haven't re-read either (and won't before tomorrow this time). So just a few points:

a) Comm, it makes sense to look at Gaspar and Lewwyn / Meiz as they are those that got night-killed by wolves, so there might be something to be gleaned as for why they were killed. I don't think Bob, El Grillo, Cyneheard and AdrienIer tell us much. Bob and Adrien didn't really leave anything to work with anyway, El Grillo made good points, but ultimately had no info to go on, we should be able to make better reads on our own. And Cyneheard was a wolf, so everything he wrote I don't believe, especially on D1.

Unfortunately, when I look at those 3, it really boils down to pindicator or scooter... Great, I knew that already. What I do consider though is what Rowain also mentioned, if the simple explanation is that they were all right and both are wolves.

b) nauf, that picture is great (I still think you could be a wolf)

c) pindicator, you wrote we should not stay fixated on you and scooter. Care to start and give us your impressions on the others, besides Rowain?

d) scooter, see the question to pindicator. Care to also give your views on the other players?

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Let's do a simple vote-based analysis. Naive, but let's see where it leads us.

8 votes: AdrienIer (Charriu, Chevalier Mal Fet, scooter, Meiz, Rowain, naufragar, Serdoa, pindicator)
4 votes: Scooter (Commodore, Lewwyn, AdrienIer, superdeath)
1 votes: naufragar (GeneralKilCavalry)

Bobchillingworth (6): Commodore, scooter, El Grillo, superdeath, GeneralKilCavalry, AdrienIer
Cyneheard (5): Gaspar, Meiz, Serdoa, naufragar, Lewwyn
AdrienIer (3): pindicator, Charriu, Rowain
superdeath (2): Chevalier Mal Fet, Cyneheard
Lewwyn (1): Bobchillingworth

Bobchillingworth, El Grillo, Gaspar, Lewwyn, Meiz, and of course Adrien were town.

Gaspar, Meiz and Lewwyn were directly killed by WW/vig actions. Note how all of these were D1 cyne voters, there is no coincidence there.

Set intersection of d1/d2 adrien voters is Charriu, rowain and pindicator, which is everyone from d1, actually. This is worrying, because at absolutely no point did Adrien seem suspicious to me. I in fact had  a short post noting he did not even fall into the top 3 most suspicious that I had D1, which were Bob, cyne and nauf.

Half of the Bob bandwagon are known town. I believe that most likely, the wolves coordinated to pull out to Adrien and Cyne for safety. Perhaps scooter didn't respond fast enough?

D2 non-Adrien voters are most D1 Bob voters. So basically, Commodore, SD and GKC moved from bob, but didn't buy the adrien band-wagon. The second category of players are those who for some absolutely inane reasoning decided to buy into the adrien bandwagon.

Breaking the latter category into some groups:
Former bob voters - scooter.
Former Cyne voters  - Serdoa and naufragar (again, the tension here arises again)
D1 Adrien voters - pindicator, Charriu, Rowain these strike me with some immediate suspicion.
CMF - who stayed on SD, I presume out of inability to change vote or otherwise being busy. Speaking of CMF, those long overview posts on each person are mild-consensus circle-**** and are mostly devoid of substance. I can't say my posts have been great,  but I've tried to press a select group of people whose mutual interactions don't sit well with me, Rowain, nauf and Serdoa for further information. Frankly, the lack of discussion and constant diversion from that front has been extraordinarily frustrating for me, but I haven't been able to devote the energy to keep pushing in that direction.

I think anyone saying that SD is a liability and hence ought to be lynched on D2 after so many deaths is scummy, I mean come on charriu. There's juicier targets - he's just a non-entity, and lynching an active wolf misleading people is bound to cause more gain.

" Superdeath: Superdeath granted us exactly 3 more posts on day 2, even less then on day 1. Those were: A understable, but other then being voted by him, baseless vote against Chevalier (#437). A low effort defense of that accusation at (#519, with a quick backtrack on that accusation and at last he throw himself on the scooter bus without much (#638). In addition he voted late for Bob on day 1. I don't know if he's a villager or wolf, what I definitely know is that he's a burden."

Like sure, he isn't engaged, but this is D2, with so many deaths, are you seriously going to go for the low-engage vote? Like it's a bit too late to vote on that principle. Anyhow, that's a side-track.

So out of the bolded groups, and based almost     ENTIRELY ON VOTE ANALYSIS   I think here goes least to most suspicious:
Commodore, SD and GKC
[b]CMF [/b]
[b]Serdoa[/b]
[b]naufragar[/b]
[b]scooter[/b]
[b]pindicator, Charriu, Rowain[/b]


Also, I absolutely hate this format of not knowing the role distribution in advance, and I find it really hard to read into scooter's claim. In order to buy it, I need to see a really good explanation for how any of those events are even possible.