WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Rowain]

How much have you gleaned, Rowain? What have you learned from lynching with a massive bandwagon? Your voted throughout this game have been nothing but incorrect.

For the umpteenth time
I said before the way pindicator wrote his accusation way back on day 1 meant either he found several scum or he tried to stick one scum (cyneheard) to villagers which makes him also scum. Hence my wanting to lynch one of those 2 and here I preferred Adrien like a lot of people did. And I said before the day started that I prefer pindi for today.

With the "I'm vig and I shot somebody totally not dead something must have redirected my shot" that both pindi and scooter came of within 2 minutes is fascinating. Especially as both claim to have nothing to do with the night 1-killings.

My accusation about you: You posted how scummy Cyneheard is but you did not vote for him. If you really meant your accusations on Cyneheard you would have voted for him and not parked it on Bob.
That is scummy play. Which I have also mentioned already but ok.

[pindicator]

How much have you gleaned, Rowain? What have you learned from lynching with a massive bandwagon? Your voted throughout this game have been nothing but incorrect.

For the umpteenth time
I said before the way pindicator wrote his accusation way back on day 1 meant either he found several scum or he tried to stick one scum (cyneheard) to villagers which makes him also scum. Hence my wanting to lynch one of those 2  and here I preferred Adrien like a lot of people did. And I said before the day started that I prefer pindi for today.

With the "I'm vig and I shot somebody totally not dead something must have redirected my shot" that both pindi and scooter came of within 2 minutes is fascinating. Especially as both claim to have nothing to do with the night 1-killings.  

My accusation about you: You posted how scummy Cyneheard is but you did not vote for him. If you really meant your accusations on Cyneheard you would have voted for him and not parked it on Bob.  
That is scummy play. Which I have also mentioned already but ok.

How was I tying Cyneheard to anybody other than AdrienIer? Of the two of us, you are the one trying to line up dominos: first AdrienIer, then me, but never scooter. Killing Meiz was a smart play to make me look guilty - but then how did you also get Lewwyn? You switch him and scooter and that's how he died?

[pindicator]

people I weouuld like to lynch tomorrow:
pindicator (for the tying of cyneheard with Adrien), GKC (for the throwing mud on cyneheard but never really voting for him)

could be talked into a lynch
Commodore (easy scater), naufragar (enough posts that look scummy ), SD (is he even trying?)

on the fence
scooter - lewwyn does make some arguments but scooters explosion looked real.
charriu - I can't explain it he just feels odd to me

won't lynch:
CMF His past work should be rewarded with one day of peace

Scooter didn't explode. You scum? Yeah you might be scum. Let's reward CMF for his "hard work"? WTF? One day of peace? Set up the following day's mislynch?

Even the Pindi argument is very bad. So many better reasons for pindi to be scum than the lynch. You are pretty clearly just going through the motions at this point. What a scum post.



Lynch Scooter or Rowain or Nauf or Pindi. Pindi depends on what happens in the day discussion, but for sure Scooter is a wolf, and Rowain or pindi is my #2 after yesterday's day. Notice that Nauf is in the second tier of Rowain's scum list so it will take lynching 4 people before getting to him.

Yes, very much this post about Rowain.  Note how Rowain only talks about the emotional part of the Lewwyn v Scooter fight and ignores Lewwyn's points about Scooter's shifty behavior.  

Seriously, read this post.  Read it again.  I honestly read it 3 times before it sunk in because I saw Lewwyn was animated about it and I didn't see it at first but Lewwyn knows these games.  He's arguing that scooter is trying to rewrite the history of how he viewed AdrienIer:  first on day 1 he quotes scooter as saying he has no idea what the case against AdrienIer is, but he's open to voting for him.  Then he shows that in Day 2 scooter is trying to claim that AdrienIer was his #2 pick behind Bob all along on Monday.  He shows that scooter never really had his own case against AdrienIer, but just jumped on the back of other people's cases.  There's much more in there, but that part about AdrienIer was what made the light turn on for me and why I tried to shoot him last night.


Now, back to Rowain, this post from last night really left me unsettled:

As I said before: Either Pindi found some wolves in his first post or he tried to bind 1 wolf (cyneheard ) with a villager.
If you read a bit back I have said this.

Does that mean you are just going to lock onto Pindi all day?

Possible -  else my game would be a bit inconsistent don't yo think?

You hunt scooter and I will vote pindi tomorrow.

But first lets see who dies tonight. Perhaps that does open new insights.

BTW I had an alternate candidate today - GKC  - but that didn't get any traction at all.

Not so much that he wants me as his target, but the reason.  That he would be inconsistent?  Wolves worry about looking consistent.  Town worries about finding scum.  Town makes mistakes and has to backtrack and find new avenues because they do not know the information.  Wolves have the information and just worry about appearances.

The nuggets of this were back when he started locking it to be either me or AdrienIer earlier in Day 2 in post #602, which Commodore and AdrienIer rightly called him out on:

Can somebody explain why this sudden "either Adrien is a wolf or Pindi is a wolf" hype ? I think Pindi might be a wolf but I'm nowhere near certain.

+1 to this, I think I totally have missed the logic chain. They're both in my "might be wolves" bucket, fwiw.

Rowain's explanation to this:

@Adrien I don't know if it is a hype it is my opinion.

I explained my reasoning here:

My thoughts
Adrien - pindi:
pindi highlighted Adrien'S voting thereby binding cyneheard + Adrien + Comm. Now this can be 2 things) pindi is a genius and really hit the scum hard. Adrien has done a similar voting-pattern in the past (bringing up others when a wolfbuddy was in danger) or b) pindi is scum tying a wolf (Cynehear) with 2 villagers. What makes me stop from jumping on the pindi is a wolf-train is twofold: He did push for Adrien immediately today which is dangerous for a wolf  and the attack from Meiz. My distrust of Meiz you can read further up.

But where did I tie Cyneheard's vote to Commodore?  I only thought that AdrienIer's vote in day 1 where he said he looked at Bob and Cyneheard and thought bob looked bad but Cyneheard looked like cover.  I advocated for a Commodore vote at one point - where I thought scooter's reaction was real and Commodore should have known that.  Honestly, that scooter reaction at the beginning of day 2 still may have been real.  Lewwyn knows how to really get his nails under people's skin when he locks in on a target.

Also, later in that post Rowain talks about scooter v Lewwyn, dismissing it on the emotional argument.  Here's the question I want from Rowain: what do you think about the argument Lewwyn made last night about scooter?  Not the "emotional" argument, the argument that scooter is shifty, latching on to other people's arguments and not having his own, and that he tried to rewrite his history on how he felt about AdrienIer during the day 1 voting?

pindicator, you wrote we should not stay fixated on you and scooter. Care to start and give us your impressions on the others, besides Rowain?

Yes, and I am sad to say my impressions are not complete by any means because I have been skimming, as i said before.  But aside from my scooter & rowain wolf pair theory, even if I'm right that still means one more wolf out there.  And there are a number of people I have not dug deep on lately.  I'm guilty of skimming yours and naufrager's arguments yesterday, for instance.

Commodore would have to be town, if scooter comes up wolf.  Commodore has been on scooter pretty well, only #2 to Lewwyn I would say from my memory.
Likewise, you on Rowain gives and your play this game gives me a pretty solid town lean on you. Again, if Rowain turns up wolf then it seems bad for you to be the main one who started throwing heat on Rowain when he was largely getting town tells from people start of day 2.
I've largely liked the posting I've seen out of Charriu and CMF - although Lewwyn's suspicion of CMF probably warrants a re-read. Say town leans, but probably my next read targets after the last three.

naufrager, GeneralKilCavalry, and superdeath i need to re-read.  These are people I have kind of skimmed on since they were never front-and-center arguments after early day 1.  Right now I would suspect our last scum in that group somewhere.  But I need to read.

[Charriu]

Also, charriu, I really dislike the way you attempt to presume who I am voting for just now. It seems like a very disingenuous move.

I was under the assumption that this day will be a pindicator vs scooter vote, like I said here.

This night result changes a lot and it looks like it will be either pindicator or scooter today. Do I understand you correctly that you are in favor of lynching pindicator today?

I then looked at your list.

So out of the bolded groups, and based almost     ENTIRELY ON VOTE ANALYSIS    I think here goes least to most suspicious:
Commodore, SD and GKC
[b]CMF [/b]
[b]Serdoa[/b]
[b]naufragar[/b]
[b]scooter[/b]
[b]pindicator, Charriu, Rowain[/b]

I saw that scooter was below pindicator, which is why I asked. Now I am totally stupid for ignoring the bolded and underlined part saying that this is solely on vote analysis. In my head I thought this is your actual list. Sorry.

Now back to re-reading scooter after I'm done with pindicator so far.

[naufragar]

Comm, or maybe the Vig was dumb and thought Lewwyns extreme attack on scooter was too over the top, as was his Gaspar D1 post, and therefore thought it a good idea to shoot him?

It was a vig shot.

But I put my order to shoot scooter, not Meiz and not Lewwyn.

I have no idea about night 1, that wasn't me.

Just got home, I haven't read the end of evening stuff yet. More thoughts after that

Pind, are you claiming a vig role with multiple shots? (Am I allowed to ask questions like this? Just no quoting PMs, right?) And you're saying you didn't do anything night 1 but took your first shot night 2?

[pindicator]

Pind, are you claiming a vig role with multiple shots? (Am I allowed to ask questions like this? Just no quoting PMs, right?) And you're saying you didn't do anything night 1 but took your first shot night 2?

Just one shot, just last night. I did nothing on night 1.

[Commodore]

This has to be the best cross-post we've seen in a while. We have Pin's straightforward claim:

Comm, or maybe the Vig was dumb and thought Lewwyns extreme attack on scooter was too over the top, as was his Gaspar D1 post, and therefore thought it a good idea to shoot him?

It was a vig shot.

But I put my order to shoot scooter, not Meiz and not Lewwyn.

I have no idea about night 1, that wasn't me.

Just got home, I haven't read the end of evening stuff yet. More thoughts after that

...and we have the soothing, buzzing tones of a big fat Scooter claim:

Alright, I think now is the right time to reveal some information about myself before looking elsewhere. I am a one-shot vigilante. I can use it exactly once all game to hit a target of my choice at night. My strategy with this role was to last as long as possible without attracting the attention of a wolf night-kill. My thinking was that the vigilante shot is more valuable the longer you can save it, because it's more likely to hit a wolf later, and it's a bigger game swing to get a wolf kill late in the game. The problem is that this goal meant I had to walk a tightrope of seeming useful enough to not lynch, while also looking slightly bad so the wolves would view me as a viable mislynch target.

Unfortunately, I felt cornered going into today. I feared I would get mislynched Day 3 after yet another round of bad news at the end of yesterday, so I decided to use my shot last night. I attempted to shoot pindicator. I have no idea WTF happened and why he's still alive, but surely he was saved in some way by his fellow wolves. I have no idea how, and I was hoping to comb through the wiki more tonight to try to figure it out. They could have some sort of wolf-doctor, but I would think I'd see a message indicating he was saved or something.

There are several other questions on my mind. First off, what in the world happened to Cyneheard night 1? That was not me. I toyed with the idea of taking a shot on Adrien, but it felt like way too big of a gamble when I also felt like I was positioned pretty well to last awhile. My best guess is we do indeed have a serial killer, though I'm puzzled as to why they'd pick Cyneheard. Targeting Meiz or Lewwyn makes more sense for a SK. The only other guess I have is there's another one-shot vig in the village, which I could see making sense too.

Going forward, I absolutely have to put my vote on pindicator for right now, because I cannot think of an explanation that paints him as anything other than a wolf. Somehow he got saved last night, and I'd like to figure out how. I'm limited on time today (holiday here in the US), but I'll have more time tomorrow or maybe tonight to look into it.

Roles exist to enable this to be truthful, first of all. I know we've seen Redirectors, who can move someone's action from their intended target, to a different one. I believe there's also a defensive Redirector who can shield someone and bounce the action to another target. This is clearly a high-power game, so weird powers might have killed poor ElGrillo.

So we have two claims:
A. Pindicator is a vig who shot at Scooter.
B. Scooter is a vig who shot at Pindicator.

Logic: A can be true or false. B can be true or false.
THESE CLAIMS ARE INDEPENDENT: It is possible, but grossly unlikely, that both Pindicator and Scooter are telling the truth. Much more likely, if Pin is telling the truth, then Scooter is lying, or if Scooter is telling the truth, then Pin is lying.
BOTH CAN ALSO BE LYING: There are two possibilities if they are both lying. They could both be wolves who saw themselves being tied together and thus did this well-coordinated gambit to gain cover for one when the other is lynched. Or, one could be a wolf and the other a serial killer (so two different factions, both anti-village).

[Commodore]

I think Scooter is lying. I think Pindicator *might* be lying. We should lynch Scooter and jail Pindicator overnight, unless Scooter is the wolf Jailer. If another wolfpack member is Jailer, I'd appeal to you, sir, to jail the SK who is clearly hunting you.

This is difficult, because I'm going by my intuitions here. My gut says that Scooter is in a wolf pack with Rowain and...CMF, perhaps. It could also be a 3-person wolfpack with superpowers including bulletproofing. The wolfpack got scum vibes from Pindicator early on and watched him, thus keeping him in their posts as a handy lynch target. He might or might not be a serial killer, but the wolfpack is treating him like one. Pindicator is playing a careful game and knows that the one-shot-vig claim is classic (or he's a one-shot-vig in truth). When he targeted Scooter and got redirected, he realized he needed to claim ASAP. He made it just in time. Scooter had his own classic claim, either planned for ASAP or planned for the second someone else claimed vig. Now it's fun and muddy, but the town is heavily voting against Scooter on this one. PITY MOST OF THE TOWN IS DEAD.

The other scenario I mentioned, Case Team Pindicooter, has one excellent argument going for it: Those claims were within four minutes of each other. That timing is...fortuitous indeed. Occam's Razor is tipped with silver and wants to decapitate them both.

[Commodore]

But why prefer pindicator at this point?

why prefer one over the other? Because we cant lynch 2 targets.

Who's company do you prefer to be in? General Kill Cavalry, Charriu, and myself, or Rowain?

[scooter]

Commodore, I'm very strapped for time today, so I can't deeply reply to your latest post just yet. However, I'd note that virtually every piece of evidence there looks equally bad for pindicator as it does me. Which is exactly why I targeted him last night.

I am interested that Pindicator seems to be everyone's favorite bus target.

I am interested that your conclusion is to be skeptical of the attention on pindicator and suspicious for me, when up until our HoF worthy crosspost, your evidence here ties us together pretty tightly.

Commodore, I would like this question answered. Because honestly, I think you're pretty obviously a wolf trying to give your buddy here a lift in a way that's not nearly as subtle as you hope. You present a whole bunch of evidence that implicates myself and pindicator about equally, and your conclusion is that... I'm obviously a wolf and you scoff at the bus on pindicator? Then of course the Crosspost Of The Year comes out, and you backpedal and pay lip service to "well I guess they could both be lying" which seems to be pretty absurd.