WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Commodore]

Commodore, I'm very strapped for time today, so I can't deeply reply to your latest post just yet. However, I'd note that virtually every piece of evidence there looks equally bad for pindicator as it does me. Which is exactly why I targeted him last night.

I am interested that Pindicator seems to be everyone's favorite bus target.

I am interested that your conclusion is to be skeptical of the attention on pindicator and suspicious for me, when up until our HoF worthy crosspost, your evidence here ties us together pretty tightly.

Commodore, I would like this question answered. Because honestly, I think you're pretty obviously a wolf trying to give your buddy here a lift in a way that's not nearly as subtle as you hope. You present a whole bunch of evidence that implicates myself and pindicator about equally, and your conclusion is that... I'm obviously a wolf and you scoff at the bus on pindicator? Then of course the Crosspost Of The Year comes out, and you backpedal and pay lip service to "well I guess they could both be lying" which seems to be pretty absurd.

Have to set up that domino, eh? I'll get to you in the morning when I'm done with school drop off. Both of you lying isn't absurd at all, though.

[scooter]

Let's start with scooter. He was the main suspect from Lewwyn. What do you have to say about the night result?

I mean, people who already believe I'm a wolf are really not going to like this opinion, but I believe the death of Lewwyn is an attempt to set me up as an easy day 3 mislynch. If I'm a villager, making Lewwyn die at night in some way is brilliant because it makes it incredibly likely you get another easy mislynch on day 3. I know this can drift into WIFOM territory really quickly, so it's not the most helpful thing to debate, but surely one can see why I'd feel this way. Maybe a better way to frame it is Lewwyn was seen by most as a villager which makes him an appealing target, and the fact that I'm likely to get swept up with that is a nice bit of synergy.


Meiz looks like just taking out a person nearly everyone thought was a villager. Interestingly, pindicator was one of the only people who seemed to think Meiz was a wolf.

You also voted for both Bob and Adrien, why?

Bob I think I've explained. I felt it was a crapshoot the first day, and Bob seemed almost purposely unhelpful, so it seemed like the best bet. Adrien was a Bob voter, and I felt 1-2 wolves were likely on Bob, and I explained myself here early on in Day 2:

As for why Adrien. I think it's incredibly likely 1-2 wolves were on Bob, purely for numbers and meta reasons. I know I'm innocent, so that's out. Superdeath is the most unlikely, so I'm crossing him out for now. GKC has given me mild town leanings, so I'm lightly scratching him out. Less sold on that, but I'm trying to narrow this down. That leaves Commodore and Adrien. I would be happy to vote for either at the time I'm writing this.


Between the two, Adrien has two things going for him. 1) People who had a better read than me were pretty skeptical of him even before the night phase. I place a little bit of value in that. 2) The end of Day 1 was weirdly quiet considering we had a wolf quite close to the top, and a lot of players parked on third parties, which in theory should have made the wolves jumpier because there was a lot of potential for last minute vote swings. I was surprised it never happened, actually. That is weird, but it's less weird if Adrien is a wolf. In that case, they were in a precarious position, so they should just hold their breath and hang on tight and not risk the whole thing coming down on them.

I'm not sure why there's this persistent narrative that my vote for Adrien was out of nowhere or something. Well, I do know why, but let's not talk about him. I explained it very early on, and I'm still pretty happy with that logic even though the result was bad. Maybe I overrated the weirdness of the end of day 1? Maybe. I have questions for Cyneheard and the wolves post-game on WTF happened because nobody here ever was interested in discussing it.

[Charriu]

I have questions for Cyneheard and the wolves post-game on WTF happened because nobody here ever was interested in discussing it.

I would have to check back, but it was discussed on day 2 or at least a few people openly thought about what happened. So far the concensus that I got was:

• Cyneheard was shot by a vig
  
• Gaspar was killed by the wolves
  
• El Grillo hid behind one of the above. But is it important to know behind who?
  

Did I miss anything? Or is there anything else important in that result? What do you want to suggest with aboves remarks?

Also I won't be available for roughly the next 12 hours. My daugther has her first day in school and afterwards we have a small celebration.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Also, charriu, I really dislike the way you attempt to presume who I am voting for just now. It seems like a very disingenuous move.

I was under the assumption that this day will be a pindicator vs scooter vote, like I said here.

This night result changes a lot and it looks like it will be either pindicator or scooter today. Do I understand you correctly that you are in favor of lynching pindicator today?

I then looked at your list.

So out of the bolded groups, and based almost     ENTIRELY ON VOTE ANALYSIS    I think here goes least to most suspicious:
Commodore, SD and GKC
[b]CMF [/b]
[b]Serdoa[/b]
[b]naufragar[/b]
[b]scooter[/b]
[b]pindicator, Charriu, Rowain[/b]

I saw that scooter was below pindicator, which is why I asked. Now I am totally stupid for ignoring the bolded and underlined part saying that this is solely on vote analysis. In my head I thought this is your actual list. Sorry.

Now back to re-reading scooter after I'm done with pindicator so far.

Sorry, I was very agitated at the moment, but the point there was that based on how people voted, and how they voted alone, those are the suspicions. However, these conclusions have to be combined and linked to behavior.


Some thoughts looking back.

Pindicator's tone D1 was very "what about this, tell me more, what about that". Generally non-confrontational. That continued into day 2... look at post 463, 468. I really dislike post #503.
And I don't like the casual vote in #647, but perhaps this is a "meta" thing to do, unlike what i did with nauf.

Pindicator before D3 reads entirely differently tbh. This is hard to read.

Then scooter:

Two things:

1) Who is determined to save him?

2) I think its very counter productive to try and make people afraid of voting for what they feel is best.

1) Well it's interesting that Gaspar was the first vote on Bob right after I was the first to point out Bob looked suspect, and then after Bob got into a lynchable position, suddenly he "doesn't like the way the train formed on him" and starts looking for other options, despite Bob showing up in the middle of this and engaging in blatantly anti-town behavior?


2) You're right, and I should have worded that differently. But I don't love how much cover we're giving wolves right now either.

Scooter if you think Gaspar is a wolf trying to save Bob, but Now he's on Cyne, How about coming to vote for Adrien?

What's the case for Adrien? I have a hard time seeing it. I'm open to it, but I'm struggling to see what we gain from keeping Bob around.

First off, GG Bob, Cyneheard, El Grillo, and Gaspar.


First, from a meta standpoint, I'm pretty confused as to what happened. I can piece together some of it, but I was under the impression this was a low-power game, but those results hint at quite a lot of powers out there. Either that or we just ... blew through them all at once? I'm a bit too out of date on WW roles to know more - I had to look up Hider on the wiki to have any idea what that was.


As for the actual interesting stuff... I'm not sure what to think. It's weird to me that Cyneheard was a wolf, but he kept his vote on Superdeath given how tight that vote was, and he could reasonably go with a "I'm just saving myself" vote on Bob. Superdeath isn't quite cleared, but he now seems like one of the safer town bets. I feel pretty good about the towniness of Meiz, Serdoa, and Naufrager because their votes on Cyneheard were really unnecessarily risky if they were wolves with how close it came. I'm not quite ready to ascribe the same benefit of the doubt to Lewwyn, who switched last-second when it ultimately didn't matter, which I could see both a villager or a wolf doing for different reasons.


The obvious wolf play was to vote for Bob since Cyneheard was up for a vote, but of course the wolves are not all going to do that. Clearly Cyneheard didn't. Feels nearly certain to be 1-2 wolf votes on Bob. We might reasonably guess there are no wolf votes on Cyneheard because it was close, and there were other options. There's one big caveat to that, though. If AdrienIer is a wolf, that might put them in an awkward spot of not wanting to all pile on Bob, but not wanting to get one of their own lynched if #2 and #3 were both up there. In that case, you might see them spread out a bit more and hold their breath.


I haven't gone through past posts or anything, but my current inclination based on all this is to lynch AdrienIer. He would have been my #2 choice last round, and the night actions make him look worse. Chevalier is another I'm curious about with his seeming throwaway vote, though it would be awfully sloppy for two wolves to both do that on the same target. I did think it was weird overall that we didn't coalesce onto the top 2-3 targets on Day 1, which I think is generally what you want to do as the village. Bob getting lynched with only 6/17 votes feels pretty bad.

The quick succession of  #378, #444, with scooter not mentioning adrien in between is totally suspicious. Saying he was your #2 when you saw no indication of that 66 posts ago? With no posts mentioning it in between? This sounds like a coordination between WW to target adrien, and scooter making a mistake here.

[pindicator]

Superdeath, do the claims make you think scooter is now less likely to be a wolf? Because yesterday you posted this:

Scooter

Based on everything ive read in the last 5 pages of Lewwyn's novel in this thread. Obviously at worst he's a villager. But im putting his likelyhood at being a wolf at 80%+

Which sounds like you are feeling pretty sure about scooter being a wolf.

But today you are voting for me instead of scooter and posting stuff like this:

But why prefer pindicator at this point?

why prefer one over the other? Because we cant lynch 2 targets.

Yes, we absolutely have to resolve one of me and scooter today - but you should still vote for the person you find scummier! Because one of us is lying about his night actions, and I know it was not me. So why are you giving scooter more credit today than you were giving yesterday by saying we should vote for me first?

[GeneralKilCavalry]

I have questions for Cyneheard and the wolves post-game on WTF happened because nobody here ever was interested in discussing it.

I would have to check back, but it was discussed on day 2 or at least a few people openly thought about what happened. So far the concensus that I got was:

• Cyneheard was shot by a vig
  
• Gaspar was killed by the wolves
  
• El Grillo hid behind one of the above. But is it important to know behind who?
  

Did I miss anything? Or is there anything else important in that result? What do you want to suggest with aboves remarks?

Also I won't be available for roughly the next 12 hours. My daugther has her first day in school and afterwards we have a small celebration.

This is why I buy commodore's argument. If cyne was shot by vig, our first impression ought to be that neither pindicator nor scooter can claim they shot him in the night (they didnt vote for him!). They're exactly meeting this expectation. And if scooter were vig, with the knowledge that he didn't shoot, why wouldn't he have emphasized the point that cyne's death is strange? There would have been ways of hinting at it without revealing role. Idk, this needs to be examined.

[superdeath]

Superdeath, do the claims make you think scooter is now less likely to be a wolf?  Because yesterday you posted this:

Scooter

Based on everything ive read in the last 5 pages of Lewwyn's novel in this thread. Obviously at worst he's a villager. But im putting his likelyhood at being a wolf at 80%+

Which sounds like you are feeling pretty sure about scooter being a wolf.

But today you are voting for me instead of scooter and posting stuff like this:

But why prefer pindicator at this point?

why prefer one over the other? Because we cant lynch 2 targets.

Yes, we absolutely have to resolve one of me and scooter today - but you should still vote for the person you find scummier!  Because one of us is lying about his night actions, and I know it was not me.  So why are you giving scooter more credit today than you were giving yesterday by saying we should vote for me first?

Honestly? Because i forgot that i had voted for him yesterday. Been a hell of a day/weekend.

Scooter

However, if he turns up villager i sure hope the town vig shoots a wolf tonight.

[GeneralKilCavalry]

Honestly? Because i forgot that i had voted for him yesterday. Been a hell of a day/weekend.

Read #685 and #713 to catch up.

[Rowain]

Who's company do you prefer to be in? General Kill Cavalry, Charriu, and myself, or Rowain?

Honestly it is this company that I would prefer to stay on pindi.

If one of them is telling the truth it is more likely to be Pindi. I can see vig pindi shooting scooter as he was alternate lynch-candidate although pindicator did not vote for him.

I can't really see why a vig scooter would shoot pindicator.

So with a heavy heart and still thinking pindi is antitown I move my vote to scooter

[Rowain]

The nuggets of this were back when he started locking it to be either me or AdrienIer earlier in Day 2 in post #602, which Commodore and AdrienIer rightly called him out on:

Can somebody explain why this sudden "either Adrien is a wolf or Pindi is a wolf" hype ? I think Pindi might be a wolf but I'm nowhere near certain.

+1 to this, I think I totally have missed the logic chain. They're both in my "might be wolves" bucket, fwiw.

Rowain's explanation to this:

@Adrien I don't know if it is a hype it is my opinion.

I explained my reasoning here:

My thoughts
Adrien - pindi:
pindi highlighted Adrien'S voting thereby binding cyneheard + Adrien + Comm. Now this can be 2 things) pindi is a genius and really hit the scum hard. Adrien has done a similar voting-pattern in the past (bringing up others when a wolfbuddy was in danger) or b) pindi is scum tying a wolf (Cynehear) with 2 villagers. What makes me stop from jumping on the pindi is a wolf-train is twofold: He did push for Adrien immediately today which is dangerous for a wolf  and the attack from Meiz. My distrust of Meiz you can read further up.

But where did I tie Cyneheard's vote to Commodore?  I only thought that AdrienIer's vote in day 1 where he said he looked at Bob and Cyneheard and thought bob looked bad but Cyneheard looked like cover.  I advocated for a Commodore vote at one point - where I thought scooter's reaction was real and Commodore should have known that.  Honestly, that scooter reaction at the beginning of day 2 still may have been real.  Lewwyn knows how to really get his nails under people's skin when he locks in on a target.

Let me jog your memory. Hioghlights by me

But that is not what AdrienIer has done! Instead he has gone from easy low- content pick of superdeath to easy low-content pick of Bob. What first caught my attention is that both came in quick response to other people being put up. It was right after Rowain pushed Commodore and Comm was getting some attention that he voted superdeath. And now with Cyneheard getting attention he's suddenly on the Bob wagon despite it not being a dig for every crumb type of vote. But regardless of that or whether that has anything to do with anything, I don't like that he is buddying up to one low content person, taking him under his wing, and then jumping right over to another while saying we have to put in the effort to find tells. The actions don't match the words.

Thats where you bind Comm,Adrien and Cyneheard together. After Cyneheard rolled wolf I wanted to see if you managed to sniff out a scum-nest or if you tried to tie your scumbuddy with villagers to give him cover.

Also, later in that post Rowain talks about scooter v Lewwyn, dismissing it on the emotional argument.  Here's the question I want from Rowain: what do you think about the argument Lewwyn made last night about scooter?  Not the "emotional" argument, the argument that scooter is shifty, latching on to other people's arguments and not having his own, and that he tried to rewrite his history on how he felt about AdrienIer during the day 1 voting?

The rewriting of his history is the only argument that holds any water. Still I would be sad if scooter used curse-words  as a defense. 

Superdeath even forgot whom he voted for yesterday what do you make of this?