WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Serdoa]

So, I don't like this situation. pindicator and scooter have both not really rang any bells for me with their play. I mean that in the sense that you read something and instantly go "Ew". Therefore my plan was to re-read them. But now there have been some posts here that let me go "Ew", so I'm going to go through those people: 

1. superdeath
   #71: Vote on me; Joke?
   #77: Vote on Rowain for questioning him; Joke?
   #79: Considering voting GKC for the editing; Joke?
   #83: Vote on GKC; because he has convinced him that he is up to something...
   #96: Info regarding his experience with Werewolf (none written, just SC2-mod)
   #240: Stating he was not serious with his early votes, joke about his name, asks if that now is enough to not get lynched (apparently it was...)
   #242: 3 more lines explaining that he tried to get a feel for the game with the early votes and that work sucks
   #243: Explains his votes: Jokes
   #247: Being upset with the constant questioning of why he voted the way he did
   #251: Everything looks like banter.
   #262: Surprised that we expect 4/17 wolves, seems to high in his opinion, asks about Arsonist.
   #281: Replying to Cyneheard. States that of the two options (wolf, confused villager) he falls into category 2. Asks if, in case he was a wolf, his fellow wolves would not be keen on coaching him. Also states that until D2 it is hard to agree to lynch someone as there is no evidence. Votes Bob, because Bobs "lynch me if you will" reminds him on some SC2-WW-games he had with people throwing that line out always being Arsonists or Mafia.
   #285: Statement on players, me being town without powers, Comm being cop/detective, Bob being Arsonist/wolf.
   #398: GG Bob
   ----------------- Day 1 end ------
   #437: Votes CMF, because CMF voted for him.
   #519: Convinces himself not to vote CMF (but still votes him), out of scooter, Adrien, GKC and Comm he feels Comm is the most likely wolf (because of his early protective-ness)
   #638: Votes scooter, based on Lewwyns novel
   ----------------- Day 2 end ------
   #695: Votes pindicator
   #719: Believes that both pind and scooter are wolves
   #723: Asked why pind over scooter -> because we can't lynch both
   #740: Votes scooter, because he forgot that he had voted him D2 and that why he had voted pindicator first... (what?). Adds that if scooter turns up villager, he hopes the vig shoots a wolf at night.
   
   Ok, we all know that SD hasn't done much, but that is not just low content.
   
   - with post #247 he starts going from "I have no clue what to do" to giving opinions on game-setup and how to play. I would expect someone new to slowly transition, asking questions, not bluntly state things, so that has me questioning if he either has more experience than he alluded to or if he has taken things from the wolf-thread / got coaching.
   - post #281 is reinforcing the above feeling
   - post #285 is reading Comm as cop/detective. I find that interesting, as in #519 Comm is the most likely wolf out of several players, for his protectiveness D1. So on D1 he is read as cop because he directs people away from non-threats and towards actual conversation and D2 that behaviour is the most wolfish?
   - post #519 is also interesting together with #638. He writes he convinced himself not to vote CMF, but keeps on him, states that Comm is the most likely scum out of Comm, scooter, Adrien, GKC - and then votes scooter, because Lewwyn made a case.
   - post 740 is what made me go "Ew". He votes pind without reason, votes scooter on flimsy reasoning and also does not forget to add that IF scooter is a villager, hopefully the vig can save us.
   
   The only thing I am certain after all that is that SD does not care whom of the two we lynch today, or really whom we lynch on any day. I also don't like his voting on D1 or D2. I admit, I'm not a friend of voting analysis (I'll get to that with GKC), but it can add to an overall picture. And for me that overall picture is that SD is either a wolf or (and I lean more towards that point) an arsonist / SK. If he is a wolf, I think one could read his erratic voting today either that he was on his scum-buddy to bus him but they realized they could get one more day out of it, or he was not on his scum-buddy, but they realized that scooter has high chance to die and it would contradict what he did D2 if he didn't vote for him. So basically a fuck-up on his part at the start (which would be typical new wolf imo, trying to avoid to vote for your scum-buddies).
   
   
   
2. GeneralKillCavalry
   #11: Joke-vote on Commodore
   #17: Voting-color discussion
   #26: Voting-color discussion - vote for Cyneheard (explained as just because Cyne was the one explaining vote-tags)
   #40: Vote naufragar for getting defensive
   #53: Rebuttal at pindicator for calling him out on the many votes and few lines
   #55: Answering BRick
   #84: Asking what scummy means
   #86: Joke
   #87: Just quotes?
   #98: Info on experience (mostly live games)
   #100: Explaining his nauf vote (he was being defensive)
   #102: Asks what a bus is
   #113: Explains that his first two votes should be ignored as he was just testing the tags
   #125: Explaining again that his vote for Cyne was just to test the tags
   #202: Reiterates on his nauf-vote (voted because nauf gets overly defensive)
   #203: Non-content
   #223: Asking for the case on SD
   #232: Defense on SD (others are also quiet), keeps on nauf but states he is not convinced nauf is scum, but his lynch would give the most info
   #233: States that he will re-read naufs posts
   #237: Rehash of D1 "discussion" between nauf, Lew and me and that he feels that nauf posed overly aggressive as villager
   #238: Questioning nauf why he made a post mainly about GKC being wolf but then voted me instead
   #241: Tells SD that he should explain why he makes votes
   #245: Tells SD that him giving for all votes the same explanation isn't helping his case
   #248: More questioning of SD
   #250: Meta-post
   #252: More help for SD
   #255: Kinda being on Cyneheard (?) it really does not read like an attack
   #266: Defends me against nauf, and explains that less than 4 meaningful posts per day are reason for concern
   #267: Explains that Bobs "Lynch me" is a face-palm in the games he played
   #279: Scolds Cyneheard for complaining about quiet people when he feels that this is not true and people are talking. But then talks about Gaspar-Lewwyn lovefest and that he does not like the aggression against Cyneheard.
   #283: SD argued that he is a confused villager because as a wolf his pack would want to coach him. GKC tells him that is not true, they would bus him.
   #286: Doesn't want SD lynched "this night", votes for Bob (no reason given)
   #292: Still suspects nauf, but between Bob and SD does rather vote Bob
   #376: Doesn't buy the Adrien-train, feels nauf -> bob -> cyne in terms of scumminess
   -------------------- Day 1 ends -------
   #423: Comment on the roles that get revealed in the night and that they have to read up on them
   #426: meta-speculation what happened in the night and states he does not know how to evaluate this (6 minutes after the post before)
   #432: more meta. Also: in his opinion SD is less likely to be scum because of Cynes aggression towards him
   #436: Town-points for Gaspar / again defense of SD
   #472: Attack on nauf, that every post nauf makes, make it seem as if nauf know something everyone else does not
   #489: Being upset that scooter does attribute me with the Cyne push and not him
   #490: Votes scooter, seems really upset about that scooter post (you really wanted that Cyneheard-credit, hm?)
   #491: Votes scooter, this time correctly (before tags were messed up)
   #499: Comments on CMFs post about several people (CMF votes Adrien there), but mainly that he is hesitant to join the Anti-Lewwyn-train (what about the Adrien vote, no comment on that?)
   #509: Works through naufs posts, is confused by them and has no read either way about nauf. But what scooter is doing is scummy and he doesn't like CMFs mega-post.
   #512: Questioning Lewwyn why he would attack nauf for buddying up with me
   #574: Explains to Rowain his D1 play. Is very adamant about his vote for Cyneheard being just because Cyne explained him the vote-tags. States he would have switched to Cyne if the day would have been longer. Finally votes naufragar
   #576: Replies to Meiz voting him, stating the only credible attack against himself can only be that he agreed with my reads, so if one would believe I am scum, he would be scum by association
   #578: Non-content
   #674: The "enough said lmfao"-post that Lewwyn didn't understand (me neither)
   #713: Vote-based analysis. States that it is worrying that Charriu, Rowain and pindicator voted AdrienIer both days. Reason: He never suspected AdrienIer. He further believes the wolves pulled away from Bob to Cyneheard and Adrien, that's why half of the Bob-voters are town. But scooter was probably not fast enough.
   For D2 votes he then excludes the ones that voted Bob on D1 (because that apparently is worth a medal now...), which conveniently includes SD and him (as well as Comm).
   He also mentions that he does not like the interactions between nauf, Rowain and me, as they have been distractions. Ok... I guess at that point he had forgotten that he was part of the discussion with nauf?
   He then calls Charriu scummy for pushing for SD on D2, as there are juicier targets while SD is just a non-entity and lynching an active wolf would be more gain (I don't get the argument, you don't know who is a wolf, so the decision is not between a non-active villager and an active wolf at all)
   Finally, least scummy people in his mind: Comm, SD and himself (yeah, btw, you should know if you are a wolf or not...)
   #716: He does not like Rowain, pindicator, scooter and then puts players in groups together. He believes in each group to be a wolf. Do I need to mention that each of these groups contains one of Comm, SD and himself? No, everyone expected that already? Yeah, me too.
   #717: Has nothing to add on a Lewwyn post
   #718: Votes scooter. Blames Rowain for voting incorrectly. Screams at SD for voting pindicator (!), is upset at Charriu because Charriu presumed that GKC would want to vote pindicator
   #720: Asking SD why he prefers pindicator.
   #722: Replying to nauf, who ask why he votes scooter. That is a good question, because just 8 minutes before he voted scooter, he explained that he yet can't decide if he votes pindi or scooter and has to see more of them both first. Explanation: Wants to keep pressure similar to D1 (we are not at D1 anymore, just fyi)
   #737: Charriu replied to GKC, telling him he was expecting him to vote pindicator because pindicator was higher up on his scum-list in his vote-analysis post. GKC states this was done on voting alone, but have now to be linked to behavior. He then further explains his take on pindicator, that is really non-committal all around. His scooter-vote finally is explained by scooter calling Adrien his no. 2 suspect on D2, while a post 66 posts earlier he asks Lewwyn for his case on Adrien and states that he has a hard time seeing it.
   #739: Explains why scooter and pindicator could not claim Cyneheards death (which also they didn't) with the reasoning "they didn't vote for him". Because no vig ever shot someone they did not vote for before...
   He also states that if scooter was a vig, why did he not mention Cyneheards death as strange, hinting at his role. Isn't that the same for pindicator? And besides that, why should they potentially give away their role, for what purpose? That whole argument is nonsensical.
   #741: Tells SD what to read
   
   Ok, so this are quite a few posts, making it hard to put them together in an easy to digest format. But his whole first day seems very centered around helping SD, attacking people in a non-committal way. On first read you could think he was on Cyneheard, but he really wasn't (as Meiz pointed out earlier). In the end, jumps on Bob. With our knowledge now, his overall tone sounds to me like he knows the alignment of the players in question already.
   
   Now, on Day 2, his play is again centered around defending SD, hitting on nauf and painting himself in the light that he would have voted the wolf on D1, if the day had just been longer. That is an easy claim to make, but when you read these posts and are not suspecting someone already, you just read those and go "Ah, yeah, makes sense". But re-reading, his statements on D1 are that scumminess goes nauf -> Bob -> Cyneheard. Shouldn't nauf be the vote if it is not Bob? Now, I know, the defense is: nauf was not up there. Though that is not keeping him from voting nauf on D2 and keeping on him till the end of the day. If he wants to claim he votes with impact, than he should have changed on D2. If he doesn't care, than D1 should be on nauf as well. 
   
   Lastly, there is post #713 and on. That post is so bad on so many levels, it alone would be enough for me to call him wolf. I wrote about some points already in the summary above. But in gist he tries to make it seem credible and "fact-based" (just analyzing voting) but there are no facts, just made-up arguments. For example: SD, GKC and Comm are good because they voted Bob D1 but did not vote Adrien D2.... ok, and that is why exactly a good thing? Because GKC avoided any meaningful vote? Because SD didn't even play D2, making 3 posts (wasn't there something about each player needs 4 meaningful posts each day? got forgotten it seems in that analysis). The whole post is only here to conclude that of course he, SD and Comm, are least scummy. Currently I feel that Comm was lumped in there for similar voting-behavior, so it was impossible to craft that argument without him without clearly exposing how nonsensical it really is.
   
   The following posts don't get better, rather worse. It is so blatantly telling SD what he should vote, as apparently SD fucked up the plan, I guess, by voting pindicator? He even tells him which posts to read (only two though, out of around 60?). I can only assume they planned to vote scooter first, pindicator second and don't want discussion about it? I mean it would be easy -> mislynch today -> "Oh well, but tomorrow we get them" and "the vig will save us" -> mislynch the other tomorrow -> wolves win
   

Ok, I've sat from 7:30 to now 13:30 on this post, having taken a work from home day to be able to read stuff more carefully. I'll have a telephone conference soon, so I'll post this now with hopefully a few people giving their opinion till I'm back and then I'll try to look at all others, especially of course pindicator and scooter. I actually had started with SD because I thought it would be quickest, but well, that got me in some mess...

[naufragar]

So that I don’t bury the lede: I think both Pindi and Scooter are wolves coordinating to give each other cover.

I went to bed last night hoping to wake up to some clarity and with a quip about Occam’s Razor in my back pocket. Unfortunately, Commodore had a better line first. More unfortunately, nobody gave me that clarity.

If both Pind and Scooter are telling the truth, we have 2 one-shot vigilantes, a wolf team, and at least one other killer since Pind & Scooter disavowed both night kills. In addition, we also have 2 roleblockers, who coincidentally targeted both one-shot vigs on the same night they were about to shoot. The clarity I wanted that never came: nobody popped up in the night (local time) and said “I was roleblocker. I blocked (Pind/Scooter) therefore the other is lying.” So if both Pind and Scooter are telling the truth, there’s a whole lot of assumptions and a whole lot of silence from potential corroborators.

If one of Pind/Scooter is telling the truth, it’s possible he was roleblocked by someone who doesn’t want to claim (possibly a wolf roleblocker as Commodore raised). We still have the staggering coincidence of people claiming two identical roles with two identical situations (the shot missing). Plus the luck of the roleblocker to hit the vig as he was firing.

So, while my fun-loving self would like to believe that two players made two huge claims minutes apart unknown to each other, magic isn’t real and the simplest explanation is that they coordinated. As Superdeath points out, they were both on the block at the end of N2 and if one gets lynched, perhaps the heat goes off the other. I don’t think it’s a great wolf gambit, because the other would (I think) still be under suspicion, but this is the explanation that requires me to leap the least.

For full disclosure, I reread Day 2 last night and I am still completely, hopelessly lost on which of Pind/Scooter is more wolfy. How about a simple calculus? I still believe there was a wolf on Bob we haven’t found (living Bob voters: Comm, Scooter, GKC, Superdeath). Let me go with Scooter.

GKC (because you haven’t filed that restraining order yet), analysis is only as good as its presuppositions. This is yours:

I believe that most likely, the wolves coordinated to pull out to Adrien and Cyne for safety. Perhaps scooter didn't respond fast enough?

This is the reason you can rank three Bob voters (Comm, Superdeath, you) as the least suspicious of all “based on voting analysis.” You assume that people that have voted for one village, one unknown (you, Commodore, Superdeath, CMF) are less suspicious than those that voted for one village, one wolf (Serdoa, me). I mention all this to flag the fact that, yes, I do get heebie-jeebies voting with you, but because I think we haven’t lynched a Bob wolf yet, I’m voting scooter.

[naufragar]

Holy smokes what a crosspost. I'll try to read and react to Serdoa's stuff later.

[Rowain]

Great Post Serdoa

BTW I pointed it out about GKC several times that he threw dirt on Cyneheard but never voted him for real. I even trried to lynch him yesterday but except a short lived vote from Meiz it didn't gain any traction.

Were it not for the pindicator-scooter drama today ...

[BRickAstley]

Tally as of post 747:

Lynch votes
7 votes: scooter (Charriu, Commodore, pindicator, GeneralKilCavalry, superdeath, Rowain, naufragar)
1 votes: pindicator (scooter)

Voting history:

SCOOTER

pindicator

scooter

Pindicator

Scooter

scooter

pindicator

scooter

Scooter

scooter

Scooter

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Hey guys, I'm checking in. Sorry for being absent, I was away from my apartment over labor day, but I didn't anticipate losing Internet access...which, I did. Last I saw was the night actions, so I have the last 24 hours to catch up on.

[scooter]

I can't really see why a vig scooter would shoot pindicator.

Really? Well, FWIW I also wanted to shoot Commodore, but I was a bit wary of him getting protected in some way. Pindicator's been an interest of mine for awhile. You can see it here:

I did a re-read of a chunk of that section. Not much really jumped out at me, but I was mostly interested in this question from Chevalier, so I put the most emphasis on Gaspar posts and conversation around them.

Gaspar: Why target Gaspar? WIFOM dangers here, but it seems foolish of the scum to knock off a villager who was only accusing other villagers.

Good news: I think this is easy to answer. Bad news: It doesn't help us going forward. It's not complicated though: Gaspar was all over Cyneheard and was generally trying to prod votes towards him late on Day 1. With Bob getting lynched as a villager, and Gaspar being one of the leaders of the Lynch Cyneheard Train, that makes him a natural wolf target. Complicating things is that Cyneheard isn't just a wolf, but a power wolf. Brick's message says his role is "Jack of All Trades." What this means exactly is a bit unclear to me, but the point is he had powers, and the wolves wanted to protect Cyneheard especially in order to do so. Of course, the Vigilante or some similar role managed to kill Cyneheard, so it was sort of in vain.


Here's his last few posts before the end of the day.

Mobile for the rest of the day period, so no fancy quoting or formatting.

I agree with much of what Serdoa says, which is weird.  But basically people im ok with hanging today are Cyneheard, pindicator and Bob. Probably in that order.

For what its worth, my scumminess rankings are Cyneheard > pindicator > Bob. I like Bob less mostly because o don't like how his train built up after I voted for him, and I think one way or another that will be interesting on day 2 after we know more

Adrien: I dont like his game but I don't have a real read beyond that.

Scooter: I definitely could be talked into him. I feel he often does a thing where he notices things and reacts to them but doesn't specifically mention that he's reacted. Its like a form of defensiveness but because he has a such a silver tongue he can avoid everyone noticing.

I much prefer a Cyneheard or pindicator lynch though.

Pretty consistently, Gaspar was on Cyneheard, pindicator, and Bob, with passing mentions of myself and Adrien. My read of this is pretty simply that the wolves were trying to take out one of the folks they expected to go after Cyneheard on Day 2, but the more speculative theory is that they were worried because he was onto Cyneheard and pindicator.

I wondered here if Gaspar was onto more than just Cyneheard - specifically pindicator - and that's why he was such an appealing lynch target. I was openly wondering if Gaspar was scummy himself on day 1 and considering going after him on day 2, and yet the wolves thought he should die regardless of his mislynch potential. It's quite clear Gaspar's top-2 here are Cyneheard and pindicator, and he died for it.


I preferred an Adrien vote day 2 to target a Bob voter, but pindicator has fit the profile extremely well for a long time. It was not a terribly hard call.

[scooter]

Anyway, it looks like I'm dead today no matter what I say, so let me know if there's questions you want me to answer that will prove useful once I'm revealed villager, and I'll do my best. My interest in this game was pretty sapped in the last day cycle (small part of me would not have minded getting lynched yesterday to expose Lewwyn as a clown), but I don't really want us to get stomped as badly as we're currently on track for, so I'll try to leave as much info behind as I can.

[Rowain]

Hi scooter
Aside from pindicator whom do you view as wolf and why?

Whom do you view as town and why?

What do you advise us for going forward after today?

[pindicator]

Let me jog your memory. Hioghlights by me

But that is not what AdrienIer has done! Instead he has gone from easy low- content pick of superdeath to easy low-content pick of Bob. What first caught my attention is that both came in quick response to other people being put up. It was right after Rowain pushed Commodore and Comm was getting some attention that he voted superdeath. And now with Cyneheard getting attention he's suddenly on the Bob wagon despite it not being a dig for every crumb type of vote. But regardless of that or whether that has anything to do with anything, I don't like that he is buddying up to one low content person, taking him under his wing, and then jumping right over to another while saying we have to put in the effort to find tells. The actions don't match the words.

Thats where you bind Comm,Adrien and Cyneheard together. After Cyneheard rolled wolf I wanted to see if you managed to sniff out a scum-nest or if you tried to tie your scumbuddy with villagers to give him cover.

This only would warrant investigation if AdrienIer flipped scum though. When AdrienIer flipped town then there was no way he could have been knowingly defending anyone, so how could I tie in to Commodore from there? If AdrienIer had flipped scum, absolutely I would have looked into this.

I am not making the specious argument that one of X, Y, Z has to be scum - because my suspicions as you laid them out only applied if AdrienIer was scum. Unlike you, who seems to like to line up the next day's lynch with those kinds of statements.

Also, later in that post Rowain talks about scooter v Lewwyn, dismissing it on the emotional argument.  Here's the question I want from Rowain: what do you think about the argument Lewwyn made last night about scooter?  Not the "emotional" argument, the argument that scooter is shifty, latching on to other people's arguments and not having his own, and that he tried to rewrite his history on how he felt about AdrienIer during the day 1 voting?

The rewriting of his history is the only argument that holds any water. Still I would be sad if scooter used curse-words  as a defense. 

Superdeath even forgot whom he voted for yesterday what do you make of this?
[/quote]

It's hit my radar a little. But it also falls in line with how he has played, rather inattentively. I think we need to ask whether this seems like an extensive wolf gambit, with the Cyneheard-superdeath interactions on day 1 being a smoke screen to let superdeath lay low? Or if it is just new and unsure play. I'm leaning new/unsure play.