WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[scooter]

As for focusing on today's vote first, let's look at pindicator's history here. Here's his day 1 vote now with more expanded labels:

Bob (6): Commodore,scooter,El Grillo, SD,GKC,AdrienIer
Cyneheard (5): Gaspar,Meiz,Serdoa,naufragar,Lewwyn
AdrienIer (3): pindi,Charriu,Rowain
SD (2): CMF,Cyneheard
Lewwyn (1):  Bob


Day 1 he avoided voting for Cyneheard, but he also avoided voting for the top innocent which lowers the suspicion level on him going into day 2. Pretty good move for a wolf, actually! I genuinely don't know whether he was around at the deadline, but I know it's viable for his timezone, so he may well have been the emergency ripcord to keep Cyneheard from getting lynched. This is such a huge positive for a wolf because it gives him an excuse to vote for Adrien again the next day.


Night 1:

Cyneheard was killed. He was a Werewolf Jack of All Trades.
El Grillo was killed. He was a Village Hider.
Gaspar was killed. He was a Village Tracker.

Gaspar gets wolf-killed despite not being even in the top-5 of least suspected players. Sure, this theoretically helps Cyneheard, but it also helps pindicator a lot. It makes it easy for him to lazily just repeat his vote on Adrien without anyone really pressing him on it because the one person who definitely would have done that is dead.


Day 2:

Lynch votes
8 votes: AdrienIer (Charriu, Chevalier Mal Fet, scooter, Meiz, Rowain, naufragar, Serdoa, pindicator)
4 votes: Scooter (Commodore, Lewwyn, AdrienIer, superdeath)
1 votes: naufragar (GeneralKilCavalry)

No fancy red/blue coloring because I'm too lazy, and the last one only happened because Rowain had that post where he had already done half of them. Anyway, he's on Adrien for the second day in a row. Very fortunate that things shook out in a way that allowed that, right? Although, he didn't vote for only Adrien that day, did he? Let's flash forward before coming back to this.


Night 2:

Lewwyn was killed. He was a 1-shot Commuter Villager.
Meiz was killed. He was a Villager.

Start of day 3

Lewwyn's death looks unambiguously bad for me, although I thought he suspected pindicator too. Someone else will have to check, I started skipping over any post of his that had my name in it for mental health reasons.


Let's look at Meiz though. Interesting how Meiz was let live in favor of Gaspar night 1, but then he dies shortly after a day of suspecting pindicator. Let's do a quick rundown of some Meiz posts from Day 2.

Pindicator post I do find wolfy (#324). He is still focusing on Adrien and not taking a firm stance on why Bob or Cyneheard should be lynched, or if one of them looks town. There is minor shade thown against Lewwyn as well, potentially hoping Rowain to keep pushing in that direction.

I don't think anyone is going for that? One of them can be a wolf, probably not both together. If Adrien is a town, Pindicators push near deadline is very suspicious. If Adrien is wolf, Pind's push is more towny.

But yes, my clear preference today is either Adrien or Pind lynch. Heart says it's Pind, but Adrien's play is very easy for wolf to pull through. Commodore is hanging there as a third, some of his posts give a good feeling but most of his posts are hard to get a read on and easy for wolf to craft as well.

I would add, I'm leaning more town on scooter.

In the middle of all this, pindicator gets mad and votes for Meiz before returning to Adrien. Huh, wonder why Meiz died last night, guys. Rather than some of the other players who are rarely/never suspected like Serdoa and Chevalier.

[Commodore]

Who's company do you prefer to be in? General Kill Cavalry, Charriu, and myself, or Rowain?

Honestly it is this company that I would prefer to stay on pindi.

If one of them is telling the truth it is more likely to be Pindi. I can see vig pindi shooting scooter as he was alternate lynch-candidate although pindicator did not vote for him.

I can't really see why a vig scooter would shoot pindicator.

So with a heavy heart and still thinking pindi is antitown I move my vote to scooter

Holy smokes, can you cite a single time when town-Rowain has ever used phrasing like "so with a heavy heart, I'm moving off the person I swore I'd be focusing on exclusively today to join the entire rest of the village on the person that pure logic makes a clear scum"?

[scooter]

Hi scooter
Aside from pindicator whom do you view as wolf and why?

Whom do you view as town and why?

What do you advise us for going forward after today?

I'm pretty confident Commodore is another wolf. I think it makes sense for the wolves to play risky to get another mislynch today, because mathematically it puts them in a pretty overwhelmingly strong position going forward after tonight. He's clearly already thought about this too:

Assuming 3 remaining wolves, a mislynch today has us at lylo tomorrow.

Not that pointing this out is inherently scummy or anything, but it explains his play if you know he's already thought about this. As for the third wolf, I genuinely have no idea. I think it's someone deep under cover, because otherwise Commodore might not feel so comfortable simping for pindicator today. To me that suggests someone like Superdeath, Serdoa, or maybe even Chevalier. I just think it's sort of a fool's errand to confidently nail down a third right now.


I've long thought naufragar is town, and I still think that. He's just... too sloppy to be a wolf. I think Superdeath and Serdoa are town, but I think you ought to press them to thoroughly explain their votes today, because the existence of a deep sleeper wolf seems a near certainty. Superdeath to me looks completely lost in this game, and I think that checks with a newbie with nobody to talk to out-of-thread. Serdoa is just trying insanely hard, and he also doesn't seem super concerned with how his votes and pressure looks in retrospect, which is the thing a wolf is normally worried about. Chevalier falls in the same boat, although he's far more measured than Serdoa. His deep-dive books are not impossible for a wolf to do (sup Rolland), but it doesn't happen very often.

[Serdoa]

So my plan this morning was to look into everyone, to see what connections I can draw and give a more formed opinion for who to lynch. That crosspost yesterday gave me pause and that both claim NOT to have shot Cyneheard as well. But I stumbled over SD and GKC right when I started already. 

With what I found there, lets think about if scooter and pindicator could both tell the truth. It would mean that we have

- a tracker
- a hider
- a one-shot commuter
- two one-shot vigs

We also know that the wolves had a JOAT. Now, Commodore mentioned a Jailer, which would explain why they could shoot each other and nothing happened, one of them was jailed, being roleblocked but also safe from kills. Commodore unfortunately is not really explaining his thought process in detail I feel, so I'll put down what I believe his idea is:

- wolf-jailer jails wolf-scooter to safe him from getting shot
- pindicator (SK or town-vig) shoots him, nothing happens

Commodore is in #731 pretty certain that pindicator is a SK.

Now, I think that is a possibility, meaning both lie. But if there is a jailer, there is a possibility that they tell the truth and one got jailed. So, I'm asking myself, do I see a likely case of events that leads a jailer to jail either one of them and for us having all these roles to begin with?

a) Wolf-Jailer: I both tell the truth and are villagers, then only if the wolves expected that one of them has a power-role and is targeting a wolf or if they believed one of them to be the SK
b) Town-Jailer: Both seem a likely target IF a jailer believed the accusations against either, trying to prevent them from doing anything at night seems sensible

If we have a town-jailer, I somewhat would expect him by now to have spoken up. So lets look at the wolf-jailer possibility. That... actually does not seem completely ludicrous. If there is a wolf-jailer, he could have jailed pindicator, believing him to be a SK. I think most of us did ponder the idea of a SK being in this game already. It also would make sense with all those power roles. I mean, heck, even before today we knew we had a tracker and a hider and someone else responsible for the second night-kill and the wolves have power-roles too, looking at Cyneheard. So I think it is not unreasonable to assume that they also pondered that idea. 

Ok, I currently don't like the play of several players, and they are not scooter and pindicator. I will add more later after having checked scooter and pindicator fully. But for now, lets add something to the stale mix:

GeneralKillCavalry

[Rowain]

Who's company do you prefer to be in? General Kill Cavalry, Charriu, and myself, or Rowain?

Honestly it is this company that I would prefer to stay on pindi.

If one of them is telling the truth it is more likely to be Pindi. I can see vig pindi shooting scooter as he was alternate lynch-candidate although pindicator did not vote for him.

I can't really see why a vig scooter would shoot pindicator.

So with a heavy heart and still thinking pindi is antitown I move my vote to scooter

Holy smokes, can you cite a single time when town-Rowain has ever used phrasing like "so with a heavy heart, I'm moving off the person I swore I'd be focusing on exclusively today to join the entire rest of the village on the person that pure logic makes a clear scum"?

oh Commodore
Point to where/when and with what result wolf-Rowain said that or confess that this is just a lazy smear-post to line up a mislynch

[Rowain]

His deep-dive books are not impossible for a wolf to do (sup Rolland), but it doesn't happen very often.

Roland and his 10000 word posts. Lets hope he was unique.

[Commodore]

Who's company do you prefer to be in? General Kill Cavalry, Charriu, and myself, or Rowain?

Honestly it is this company that I would prefer to stay on pindi.

If one of them is telling the truth it is more likely to be Pindi. I can see vig pindi shooting scooter as he was alternate lynch-candidate although pindicator did not vote for him.

I can't really see why a vig scooter would shoot pindicator.

So with a heavy heart and still thinking pindi is antitown I move my vote to scooter

Holy smokes, can you cite a single time when town-Rowain has ever used phrasing like "so with a heavy heart, I'm moving off the person I swore I'd be focusing on exclusively today to join the entire rest of the village on the person that pure logic makes a clear scum"?

oh Commodore
Point to where/when and with what result wolf-Rowain said that or confess that this is just a lazy smear-post to line up a mislynch

Heck, I can't even recall a wolf Rowain being that...words fail me. I'm sure there is a perfect German word for "speaking with poetic emotional language to mask cool calculation", but I don't know that word. TEACH ME THAT WORD, ROWAIN, SO THAT I MAY GIVE YOU THE RIGHT APPELLATION.

[Rowain]

@Serdoa
I agree with your assessment of GKC but in your theory something is missing. Someone did kill cyneheard on N1 and someone (the same or otherone) did kill a second villager last night.

Now I can see having 2 1-shot vigs and 1 SK in this game but then we are most likely very low on wolves. It might explain why SD has completly clamped up after CH's death. As you noted on D1 he had at least some posts on D2 only 3. today he didn't even remember whom he voted for as if he doesn't care at all.

You know if we don't lynch scooter today Lewwyn's explosion will be heard worldwide

[Rowain]

TEACH ME THAT WORD, ROWAIN, SO THAT I MAY GIVE YOU THE RIGHT APPELLATION.

Wolfjäger

but Dorfbewohner is good enough

That what you wanted right?

[Commodore]

Hi scooter
Aside from pindicator whom do you view as wolf and why?

Whom do you view as town and why?

What do you advise us for going forward after today?

I'm pretty confident Commodore is another wolf. I think it makes sense for the wolves to play risky to get another mislynch today, because mathematically it puts them in a pretty overwhelmingly strong position going forward after tonight. He's clearly already thought about this too:

Assuming 3 remaining wolves, a mislynch today has us at lylo tomorrow.

Not that pointing this out is inherently scummy or anything, but it explains his play if you know he's already thought about this. As for the third wolf, I genuinely have no idea. I think it's someone deep under cover, because otherwise Commodore might not feel so comfortable simping for pindicator today. To me that suggests someone like Superdeath, Serdoa, or maybe even Chevalier. I just think it's sort of a fool's errand to confidently nail down a third right now.


I've long thought naufragar is town, and I still think that. He's just... too sloppy to be a wolf. I think Superdeath and Serdoa are town, but I think you ought to press them to thoroughly explain their votes today, because the existence of a deep sleeper wolf seems a near certainty. Superdeath to me looks completely lost in this game, and I think that checks with a newbie with nobody to talk to out-of-thread. Serdoa is just trying insanely hard, and he also doesn't seem super concerned with how his votes and pressure looks in retrospect, which is the thing a wolf is normally worried about. Chevalier falls in the same boat, although he's far more measured than Serdoa. His deep-dive books are not impossible for a wolf to do (sup Rolland), but it doesn't happen very often.

This thing is beautiful. When, as logic and all sanity require, Scooter gets lynched and shows wolf (okay, nonzero chance he's the SK, but I think that's less likely), he needs a good vacuous smear post. This is nice and vague in all parts, I am in awe. Lewwyn's right, Scooter isn't a good wolf, he's a great wolf.

I did chuckle at the characterization of me calling Pindicator a probable liar and suspected serial killer "simping".