WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Rowain]

@Serdoa

Lets presume we don't lynch scooter today (little chance for that to happen as most of the people have clearly called it a day already) how to proceed tomorrow.
The pindi-scooter problem won't go away. As both claimed 1shot vig they can't proof it any longer. Plain simple if those 2 tell the truth the game is lost.

[Commodore]

I did chuckle at the characterization of me calling Pindicator a probable liar and suspected serial killer "simping".

Did I use the word correctly? That's what kids are saying these days, right? I'M NOT OLD YET.

I...am actually not sure.

[naufragar]

Lets presume we don't lynch scooter today (little chance for that to happen as most of the people have clearly called it a day already)

Not quite true. If Scooter flips from Pind to GKC and I go from Scooter to GKC, GKC would have 4 votes (Scooter, me, Rowain, Serdoa) to Scooter's 4 (Charriu, Commodore, GKC, Superdeath). [Somebody please check this. I'm doing this by hand in short breaks.]

When, as logic and all sanity require, Scooter gets lynched...

Indeed.

Longer post to come later (this evening?). No rush, right?

[Serdoa]

@Serdoa

Lets presume we don't lynch scooter today (little chance for that to happen as most of the people have clearly called it a day already) how to proceed tomorrow.
The pindi-scooter problem won't go away. As both claimed 1shot vig they can't proof it any longer. Plain simple if those 2 tell the truth the game is lost.

I just hate that we don't even discuss other possibilities. If we lynch GKC and he is a wolf-jailer, our problem with pindi-scooter does go away. Is that likely? No, I admit that freely. But we could at least discuss about it, ponder on it. Even if we lynch scooter, what then? If he comes up wolf, do we lynch pindicator next anyway? If he comes up village, do we lynch pindicator still? I'm not even sure on most players stance about the two and what each result actually would mean going forward. And imo right now, what we do is simply bad town play. It sets us up to get played by the wolves and a potential 3rd party. Yeah, it is easier I admit, and we have enough posts form everyone that going through them is a chore. But still, just waiting like 44 hours around and making jokes seems not a good use of our time.

[pindicator]

Night 2:

Lewwyn was killed. He was a 1-shot Commuter Villager.
Meiz was killed. He was a Villager.

Start of day 3

Lewwyn's death looks unambiguously bad for me, although I thought he suspected pindicator too. Someone else will have to check, I started skipping over any post of his that had my name in it for mental health reasons.


Let's look at Meiz though. Interesting how Meiz was let live in favor of Gaspar night 1, but then he dies shortly after a day of suspecting pindicator. Let's do a quick rundown of some Meiz posts from Day 2.

Pindicator post I do find wolfy (#324). He is still focusing on Adrien and not taking a firm stance on why Bob or Cyneheard should be lynched, or if one of them looks town. There is minor shade thown against Lewwyn as well, potentially hoping Rowain to keep pushing in that direction.

I don't think anyone is going for that? One of them can be a wolf, probably not both together. If Adrien is a town, Pindicators push near deadline is very suspicious. If Adrien is wolf, Pind's push is more towny.

But yes, my clear preference today is either Adrien or Pind lynch. Heart says it's Pind, but Adrien's play is very easy for wolf to pull through. Commodore is hanging there as a third, some of his posts give a good feeling but most of his posts are hard to get a read on and easy for wolf to craft as well.

I would add, I'm leaning more town on scooter.

In the middle of all this, pindicator gets mad and votes for Meiz before returning to Adrien. Huh, wonder why Meiz died last night, guys. Rather than some of the other players who are rarely/never suspected like Serdoa and Chevalier.

Scooter, how tf can you jump so quickly from "Lewwyn was killed: that looks bad for me but I'm not scum" to "Meiz was killed: that looks bad, pindicator must be scum!" Lewwyn was probably one of my most vocal defenders yesterday, and he was absolutely nailing rowain late day 2 into night 2 for trying to just railroad us on to a "have to lynch pindicator" day for today. Seems very obvious to me why Lewwyn would be killed, and a SK targeting

[pindicator]

So my plan this morning was to look into everyone, to see what connections I can draw and give a more formed opinion for who to lynch. That crosspost yesterday gave me pause and that both claim NOT to have shot Cyneheard as well. But I stumbled over SD and GKC right when I started already. 

With what I found there, lets think about if scooter and pindicator could both tell the truth. It would mean that we have

- a tracker
- a hider
- a one-shot commuter
- two one-shot vigs

We also know that the wolves had a JOAT. Now, Commodore mentioned a Jailer, which would explain why they could shoot each other and nothing happened, one of them was jailed, being roleblocked but also safe from kills. Commodore unfortunately is not really explaining his thought process in detail I feel, so I'll put down what I believe his idea is:

- wolf-jailer jails wolf-scooter to safe him from getting shot
- pindicator (SK or town-vig) shoots him, nothing happens

Commodore is in #731 pretty certain that pindicator is a SK.

Now, I think that is a possibility, meaning both lie. But if there is a jailer, there is a possibility that they tell the truth and one got jailed. So, I'm asking myself, do I see a likely case of events that leads a jailer to jail either one of them and for us having all these roles to begin with?

a) Wolf-Jailer: I both tell the truth and are villagers, then only if the wolves expected that one of them has a power-role and is targeting a wolf or if they believed one of them to be the SK
b) Town-Jailer: Both seem a likely target IF a jailer believed the accusations against either, trying to prevent them from doing anything at night seems sensible

If we have a town-jailer, I somewhat would expect him by now to have spoken up. So lets look at the wolf-jailer possibility. That... actually does not seem completely ludicrous. If there is a wolf-jailer, he could have jailed pindicator, believing him to be a SK. I think most of us did ponder the idea of a SK being in this game already. It also would make sense with all those power roles. I mean, heck, even before today we knew we had a tracker and a hider and someone else responsible for the second night-kill and the wolves have power-roles too, looking at Cyneheard. So I think it is not unreasonable to assume that they also pondered that idea. 

Ok, I currently don't like the play of several players, and they are not scooter and pindicator. I will add more later after having checked scooter and pindicator fully. But for now, lets add something to the stale mix:

GeneralKillCavalry

Serdoa, this doesn't fit the night kills though.

How do you explain 2 deaths last night? If we are both telling the truth one of us was jailed, we both shot each other, but there were still 2 deaths!

[pindicator]

There would have to be a serial killer in that case, okay - that presents itself. That would also explain the night 1 kill and the fact that we haven't had anybody else jump forward and claim vig despite both scooter and I doing so and saying we didn't have anything to do with night 1.

But your wolf-jailer / town-jailer logic still needs to be re-applied.

[scooter]

Scooter, how tf can you jump so quickly from "Lewwyn was killed: that looks bad for me but I'm not scum" to "Meiz was killed: that looks bad, pindicator must be scum!"  Lewwyn was probably one of my most vocal defenders yesterday, and he was absolutely nailing rowain late day 2 into night 2 for trying to just railroad us on to a "have to lynch pindicator" day for today.  Seems very obvious to me why Lewwyn would be killed, and a SK targeting

I'm not scum because I've seen my role PM. I do understand why some don't believe me, though.


What I'm frustrated with is the evidence being used to railroad me also exists for you in almost a one-for-one manner, and yet here we are, on the way to another easy lynch with shockingly little resistance. But hey, this time will be different, right?

[Serdoa]

There would have to be a serial killer in that case, okay - that presents itself.  That would also explain the night 1 kill and the fact that we haven't had anybody else jump forward and claim vig despite both scooter and I doing so and saying we didn't have anything to do with night 1.

But your wolf-jailer / town-jailer logic still needs to be re-applied.

Wolf-jailer: As I wrote, if they thought one of you were a SK, it would make sense for them to jail you. And before someone comes "but why not kill him then?" Killing a player that is highly suspected? Makes no sense. Letting them live but preventing them doing anything at night if they are a SK? Makes sense.

For a town-jailer, like I wrote, I would expect them to come forward by this point. But maybe they see more value in staying hidden? In that case, it would also make sense that one of you gets blocked, as you were both suspected.

[pindicator]

Well, that's not true.  It was lining up to be you-vs-me before the night actions.  The case against you was a lazy day 1 where you copied others arguments to the point where you mixed up on AdrienIer - first saying you didn't see the case and then saying he was your #2.  The case against me has been that I've voted AdrienIer to cover for Cyneheard and so therefore one of AdrienIer or I has to be a wolf.  Meiz didn't like the tone of my posts on day 1.  The only part that was mirrored was our hilarious timed cross post.


@Serdoa,

I see now, i was mixing up you talking through what you think Commodore's scenario is with your 'what if they're both telling the truth?' scenario. 

Commodore in 731 seems to think I was redirected, not jailed.  If there's a jailing in Commodore's scenario then there's an unexplained second kill.  But he is also appealing to a wolf jailer in this post.  Commodore, can you clarify?