WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Neat. I'd love to hear a response on that one, CMF.

Sure, happy to do it. I think Pindicator is either misreading me, or reaching. 

Holy shit, CMF.  You're posts are awful.  I've gotten mesmerized into skimming your walls-of-text, but holy shit.  Still on day 2.  I have multiple "WHAT!?"s in my notes right now.  Stuff that makes no sense so far:

Superdeath, Bob, and Cyneheard on day 1.
In #122 we get your first long list of names and rundowns.  You say you do not like superdeath's play here.   
#275 - Superdeath is an "honest guy" and "doesn't have it in him to deceive".  He thinks the Bob wagon is "too quiet" and that he would have defended us the same way.  Gives scum reads on GKC and naufrager.  But he's going to keep his vote on superdeath anyway.
#316 - Says he does not feel good about keeping his vote on superdeath but cannot find a better candidate.  You just listed two candidates in your last post!  Says Bob is a strong mislynch candidate.  Cyneheard is his other option and says he would rather vote for Cyneheard than Bob but that he does not want to vote for either.  Now he says superdeath is giving off strong scummy vibes and has a weak defense and that his vote on superdeath is risk mitigation.

Again: WHAT!?  You list superdeath as scummy at first, then say you think he is honest and can't deceive from his posts but are still going to vote for him despite listing people you say are scummier, and then when it comes to superdeath v cyneheard v bob at the end you think Cyneheard is scummier but now superdeath is scummy again and you are going to vote for him?

C'mon. 

No one liked SD's play Day 1, hell, most people still don't his play here on Day 3. No one is sure if he's a helpless newbie or a clumsy wolf. At first I parked my vote there as the easiest, most obvious wolf. Now, your characterization of my arguments is also a bit off. You say "you list superdeath as scummy first, then you say you think he is honest and can't deceive from his posts but are still going to vote for him despite listing peole you say are scummier" - no, I never did say that Bob or Cyneheard were scummier than Superdeath. I said I didn't feel good about the SD lynch, but I didn't feel good about the Bob or Cyneheard lynches either. You go on to characterize me as saying "When it comes to superdeath v cyeneheard v bob at the end you think Cyneheard is scummier but now superdeath is scummy again and you are going to vote for him." However, please note that I didn't say "Superdeath isn't scummy," instead, I mostly expressed confusion on superdeath, which I think everyone shares. I never said Cyneheard is scummier than SD but I'm voting SD anyway. You characterize it is if I were flipping back and forth between different people with my votes not matching my reads, when in reality I mostly expressed doubt and confusion about all our candidates and stayed on SD for lots of reasons I expressed in Day 2. Those reasons, I think, are still true. 

Scooter in Day 2
Post #498
Attacks Lewwyn for his posts against scooter.
Admits superdeath was not a good vote but at least it was not a bad vote (?).

"attack" is a bit of a strong characterization - I said I kept veering wildly back and forth on Lewwyn, and that certain of his posts, like the attack on scooter, were why. I stand by that. I also stand by my defense of my superdeath vote - I didn't think it was a good vote, but I did and still do think it was the least bad vote, without the benefit of hindsight on Cyneheard. I don't think that's as confusing as you make it seem, I laid out the logic pretty clearly, I felt. 

 "Cyneheard I felt less slightly town on (thank goodness) but not confident enough to be the deciding vote on him."  Says he was trying to "do no harm".  Now he gives superdeath MILD town vibes.  Emphasizes mild.  Calls him super quiet and says there are better targets.
GKC is quiet.  Doesn't give any reason for suspicion other than GKC has been quiet until recently when he came out against scooter.  CMF says he is team scooter "at the moment".
Mentions Commodore, but talks about scooter more.  Says he likes scooter's argument that there were wolves on Bob's wagon and of those says he likes Scooter, Commodore, and AdrienIer the most.  Didn't you just say you were team scooter earlier in the same post?

 

I'm not sure you read the whole post. The reason those five were mentioned - scooter, GKC, Adrien, Commodore, and superdeath - was that they were all confirmed Bob voters, and we thought our best chance to find a wolf was there. Superdeath I gave a mild town vibe - still mild - because of Cyneheard being our only known scum parked on him. GKC I did have a reason - his Bob vote. I talked about scooter a lot because that was right after his dustup with Lewwyn and he was in the crosshairs. People were complaining that there wasn't enough engagement and pushback with what was currently being posted, so I tried to do that. I thought Scooter was one of the top three candidates for wolf based on the voting patterns (and other factors discussed at length yesterday. I see no contradiction between being on "team scooter" in the Lewwny/scooter dispute and also finding his vote for Bob suspicious. That's why I did a deep dive on his, Commodore's, and scooter's posts. 

He votes AdrienIer because AdrienIer was on Bob day 1.
Talks about scooter directly now, says scooter started silly but that his actions "have largely tracked with me".  Gives him town points for an early town read of El Grillo (dude, I gave El Grillo an early town read and you didn't give me any town points for that) and says scooter's logic has been generally solid and clear.  Says he likes scooter's explanation for Bob's vote.  Didn't you just say you scooter was among your likely candidates for wolf for being on the Bob voters?

I don't see the contradiction here. I didn't give you town points out loud because I wasn't talking about you. If I had been doing a deep dive on your posts, then I probably would have! C'mon. I also listed scooter's vote for Bob as a reason for suspicion for him, and then said I liked his explanation for it. What's the contradiction that I am supposed to have made?

So yeah, I'm still reading but this is all slippery, scummy stuff.  He doesn't want to nail himself down to anything and I'm not seeing at all how people who are scummy don't get votes but people he says are not scummy do get voted for.  Full version coming later, but I need to actually do some work today too.

None of this is really remotely close to what I said. 

As for my own thoughts, right now, I'm all at sea. I felt pretty confident in my read on Adrien yesterday - go back and reread it if you like, with the new information - and him turning town has shaken my confidence in my ability to judge others. Yesterday I read scooter as genuine and Commodore as wolfy, but I read Commodore as wolfy for largely the same reasons I did Adrien, and scooter I thought towny for the inverse reasons. So can I still trust those reads? 

On the other hand, I can't just yield my judgment ot everyone else and vote with what seems to be the consensus. Then I'm useless to the town, basically just a warm body. 

So, I have to keep hammering away, even though I'm obviously not really cut out for this sort of thing. 

If I go about it logically, I figure either one of pindi or scooter is a wolf, or we're screwed anyway. GKC is the other bandwagon I see...? I do still need to do the GKC reread, even though my Adrien one was disastrous. If I had to vote, pindicator's twisting of my words* above kind of has me inclined his way, but I won't act in haste. Let me reread his posts, GKC's, and scooter's again, and reread Lewwyn's anti-scooter posts to see if I trust it more now that I know he was town. 

*Really, anyone is welcome to reread. I tried to be as transparent about my reasoning as possible. His entire argument seems to be that I "wont' get nailed down," which I guess means I try to be open about how uncertain I am about a lot of stuff, and that I vote for people I explicitly think are less scummy than others, which is just not true.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Rowain, what are your thoughts on CMF?

I really am starting to dislike how you always "have to" lynch me in your reads, for the last two days now.

I don't want to lynch him today. I liked  his big post. But I do note that he stopped exactly before the one I'm currently voting to lynch.

Fair. In all honesty, I had spent 3 hours on those 3 posts, and after Adrien and Commodore I felt good about having found at least one wolf. I'll look at GKC this evening.

[Commodore]

Superdeath, you ded mon?

[superdeath]

Superdeath, you ded mon?

After 9hrs of walking thru 40 degree rain... Yeah.

Alot to catch up on, im off tomorrow so ill be here for the day/night swap.


Fingers are still frozen its 5:44pm now, ill try and read and respond to what i find around 8pm.

[pindicator]

Neat. I'd love to hear a response on that one, CMF.

Sure, happy to do it. I think Pindicator is either misreading me, or reaching. 

Holy shit, CMF.  You're posts are awful.  I've gotten mesmerized into skimming your walls-of-text, but holy shit.  Still on day 2.  I have multiple "WHAT!?"s in my notes right now.  Stuff that makes no sense so far:

Superdeath, Bob, and Cyneheard on day 1.
In #122 we get your first long list of names and rundowns.  You say you do not like superdeath's play here.   
#275 - Superdeath is an "honest guy" and "doesn't have it in him to deceive".  He thinks the Bob wagon is "too quiet" and that he would have defended us the same way.  Gives scum reads on GKC and naufrager.  But he's going to keep his vote on superdeath anyway.
#316 - Says he does not feel good about keeping his vote on superdeath but cannot find a better candidate.  You just listed two candidates in your last post!  Says Bob is a strong mislynch candidate.  Cyneheard is his other option and says he would rather vote for Cyneheard than Bob but that he does not want to vote for either.  Now he says superdeath is giving off strong scummy vibes and has a weak defense and that his vote on superdeath is risk mitigation.

Again: WHAT!?  You list superdeath as scummy at first, then say you think he is honest and can't deceive from his posts but are still going to vote for him despite listing people you say are scummier, and then when it comes to superdeath v cyneheard v bob at the end you think Cyneheard is scummier but now superdeath is scummy again and you are going to vote for him?

C'mon. 

No one liked SD's play Day 1, hell, most people still don't his play here on Day 3. No one is sure if he's a helpless newbie or a clumsy wolf. At first I parked my vote there as the easiest, most obvious wolf. Now, your characterization of my arguments is also a bit off. You say "you list superdeath as scummy first, then you say you think he is honest and can't deceive from his posts but are still going to vote for him despite listing peole you say are scummier" - no, I never did say that Bob or Cyneheard were scummier than Superdeath. I said I didn't feel good about the SD lynch, but I didn't feel good about the Bob or Cyneheard lynches either. You go on to characterize me as saying "When it comes to superdeath v cyeneheard v bob at the end you think Cyneheard is scummier but now superdeath is scummy again and you are going to vote for him." However, please note that I didn't say "Superdeath isn't scummy," instead, I mostly expressed confusion on superdeath, which I think everyone shares. I never said Cyneheard is scummier than SD but I'm voting SD anyway. You characterize it is if I were flipping back and forth between different people with my votes not matching my reads, when in reality I mostly expressed doubt and confusion about all our candidates and stayed on SD for lots of reasons I expressed in Day 2. Those reasons, I think, are still true. 

Well I didn't want to list out every citation but if you're going to make me do it...

#122 - superdeath is scummy and gets your first vote though you had some editing problems.  No problem here in my book.

Okay, I've read everything, let me give my impressions. 
[*]superdeath
Superdeath showed up on page 8 to drop a music video and vote serdoa without explanation, then rapidly switching to Rowain and GKC "for questioning my motives" and then "because Commodore is persuasive." Later, despite GKC not posting in the intervening time, says he's MORE convinced GKC is scum. Right now, superdeath is either being superdeath, or he's a werewolf. If not for the superdeath factor, I would have extremely strong scum vibes from him. Actually, right now [vote=superdeath][/vote] is my scummiest suspect, I think. 

[*]

#275 - superdeath is trustworthy and honest, you believe him

Superdeath also seemed mostly genuine in his defense. He read like authentic superdeath, and, frankly, from having read his game reports, guys, I think superdeath is an honest guy. He doesn't really have it in him to deceive (boy will my face be red when he's a wolf). So I believe him. 

...

Right now, I'm going to keep my vote on superdeath. My reasoning is that I don't know who I'd better park it on. I dont' think superdeath is the best possible lynch, I just think he's the least likely to blow up in our faces at the moment. I want to vote for someone better, but who that is? I dunno. Need to be convinced.

[*]

#316 - Cyneheard is a better vote than Bob.  I did not say you said Cyneheard is scummier than superdeath.  I summarized what you wrote: Cyneheard is a better vote than Bob on Day 1.  You then say superdeath is scummy again here despite saying that he was honest and genuine in your last post.

Bob reads to me like genuinely annoyed. I feel like a wolf is more likely to be apologetic rather than irritated. The points that he hasn't had much substance feels valid, though...I dunno. I get the strong feeling that Bob is a mislynch, at least for now.

Cyneheard is my other option, and I like voting for him more than I do Bob, but I also don't feel at all confident that he's scum. The deadline is at 11, but class for me starts in five minutes and then I have lunch...at 11. So this is going to be my last post of the day, in all likelihood. Erm...

For now, I'm staying on Superdeath. Same reasoning as before. I don't know which of the two other possibilities at this point is better. I still think SD gave off strong scummy vibes and had a weak defense, and while that's admittedly almost entirely balanced by the fact that he possesses the trait "Is superdeath," I feel we could weather the loss of town!SD more than we could town!Bob or town!Cyneheard. So my vote for now is about risk mitigation.

[*]

So no, I did not misread or misinterpret.  I've quoted your exact words to make sure of that.

What I don't understand is how Superdeath was scummy in #122, honest and genuine in #275 but someone you still want to vote for, and then scummy again in #316.  Unless you are going to try and tell me that honest and genuine are scum qualities?


I'll respond to the rest later.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

are still going to vote for him despite listing people you say are scummier,

This reads to me like you're claiming I thought Cyneheard was scummier than superdeath. 

Anyway, I think with all three post together like that, it seems pretty straightforward. I didn't think Superdeath was a good lynch, but no one could explain to me why Bob or Cyneheard were better. I was torn between SD seeming genuine and honest in his bafflement, and the fact that his behavior and subsequent absence were also things you might see from a clumsy wolf. The sincerity in his defense made me think he wasn't a good lynch; the wolfiness of everything else made me feel there was no one better.

[pindicator]

are still going to vote for him despite listing people you say are scummier,

This reads to me like you're claiming I thought Cyneheard was scummier than superdeath. 

Anyway, I think with all three post together like that, it seems pretty straightforward. I didn't think Superdeath was a good lynch, but no one could explain to me why Bob or Cyneheard were better. I was torn between SD seeming genuine and honest in his bafflement, and the fact that his behavior and subsequent absence were also things you might see from a clumsy wolf. The sincerity in his defense made me think he wasn't a good lynch; the wolfiness of everything else made me feel there was no one better.

No, I was talking about the fact that you listed other people like naufrager and GeneralKilCavalry in the same post as scummy people in post #275, the same post where you were saying good things about superdeath:

Scum reads right now? I feel that one of GKC or Nauf is. I'm not sure about Serdoa, either - could see him and GKC aligned, as nauf charges. I don't like the rapid anti-Bob bandwagon that developed, which has hurt Gaspar and Commodore in my estimation. 

So why did you stay on superdeath at this point?

Your explanation

Right now, I'm going to keep my vote on superdeath. My reasoning is that I don't know who I'd better park it on. I dont' think superdeath is the best possible lynch, I just think he's the least likely to blow up in our faces at the moment. I want to vote for someone better, but who that is? I dunno. Need to be convinced. I have until 11 tomorrow morning...but I teach all morning. So I need to figure it out tonight. For now, I leave my vote there.

isn't convincing to me when you listed scummy people in the very same post. It reads like someone who wants to make a safe vote.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

But none of those people felt like a better vote than Superdeath. I felt that one of GKC or naufragar was, but that doesn't tell me which one. At the same time, nauf was kicking up a huge stink about Serdoa, so he was possible. And I said that the anti-Bob bandwagon made me uneasy, which hurt Gaspar - who we all know now is village! - and Commodore (who I thought was scum yesterday but now after Adrien I don't trust my own judgment. Given that massive fog of uncertainty, I decided to stay on superdeath as the least likely to do harm.

[pindicator]

Guys, I don't know if you are aware with the fire situation in western Oregon today but I've got multiple friends and family members with fires nearby. I don't know how much time I'm going to spend here over the next few days

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Be safe, my guy. And all your loved ones. RB werewolf comes second (possibly even third!).