WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[GeneralKilCavalry]

@GKC your posts are nearly as usefull as SD's.

Hurray we killed a wolf but we still have the problem with pindicator tomorrow and you and SD and Commodore. And we have plain simple done very little this day.

A little list to lynch: GKC, pindicator, Commodore, SD,         Charriu, CMF, nauf

Most likely the only useful villager Serdoa  will die tonight.

Luckily I will be traveling starting Friday so at least that reduces the time I spend here.

At your hands, of course!

[Commodore]

Okay, last will and testament time. Here’s what we still have:

Players: (9 alive)
• Bobchillingworth - lynched Day 1 - Villager
• Cyneheard - killed Night 1 - Werewolf Jack of All Trades
• El Grillo - killed Night 1 - Village Hider
• Gaspar - killed Night 1 - Village Tracker
• AdrienIer - lynched Day 2 - Villager
• Lewwyn - killed Night 2 - Villager 1-shot Commuter
• Meiz alias thrawn - killed Night 2 - Villager
• scooter - lynched Day 3 - Werewolf
• Serdoa
• naufragar
• superdeath
• Commodore
• Chevalier Mal Fet alias CMF
• Charriu
• Rowain
• GeneralKilCavalry alias GeneralKillCavalry alias GKC
• pindicator

As I’m sure you’re about to see, I’m the village doctor. As I bread-crumbed last night, I protected Rowain Night 1. Stupid with what we know now, but he seemed vaguely townish and a town Rowain always dies immediately. As again I bread-crumbed, on Night 2 I was at first going to protect Lewwyn, but noting that the wolfpack was going for strong town players who were a little less obvious (Gaspar), I switched to protecting Meiz. Obviously, no dice. I’ve put in the order to protect Serdoa tonight as he’s one of the few remaining who seems able to lead a bus, and I think he’s village. GKC as a potential wolf-trap was a good plan, but it was dangerous as it almost let Scooter live, massively foolish as that would have been. I don’t expect my order to matter.

My doctor PM does specify I only protect my target from one night kill, so I figured we had a vig or SK from the start (also, no, I can’t self-protect, I asked). I don’t think Meiz was double-killed though, I suspect I was either roleblocked or jailed, which is why I was looking with great interest at the speculation yesterday about Jailers. Simplest explanation is that we have a wolf roleblocker who doesn’t want to claim because roleblocker is the most traditional wolf role. I still don’t know about the SK/vig/redirector thing, but Occam’s Razor says the simplest explanation is a serial killer. The simplest explanation of serial killer is Pindicator, as one-shot-vig is the classic scum killer claim. Remember they killed off the village’s tracker the first night, so it’s fairly safe to claim targeting. I’m really curious to see what the SK does tonight, might choose to hold off on killing. If the surprising thing happens and I’m just roleblocked while Serdoa gets gacked, I expect Rowain to try and mislynch with some convoluted logic about calling my wolf shot or whatever.

So, nine players remain. Assuming two villagers die tonight, there are only 7 remaining and thus we’re at lylo (Lynch or Lose) with double-kill nights. Avoiding a double kill you actually will get a day to faff around, but that’s dangerous. It doesn’t speak well for us that a caught wolf almost avoided the noose yesterday.

I don’t have a ton of time, but I’m going to order the remaining players from town-read down to scum-read:
1. Superdeath: I know, I know. But he’s actually got a perfect lynch record, and he reads as clumsy and disconnected, not wolfy. I’ve played a lot of civilization with SD, he’s not a deceptive type.
2. General Kill Cavalry: Serdoa’s comments about GKC’s possibly scum behavior are well taken, but the genuine effort to save Scooter by hanging GKC makes me pretty certain he’s not in the pack. He’s an outside chance at SK, but that he was railroaded to save Scooter really speaks well for him.
3. Naufragar: I issued my compassionate appeal to his better nature because my gut said he was a misled villager, not a scum. Charriu had been signaling willingness to shift off Scooter, so when Naufragar shifted, he really did seal the deal and kill off Scooter. Possible it was done with the pack calculating that Scooter was doomed, but he certainly got points.
4. Serdoa: Like I said, his timing really sucked if that GKC push was designed as a trap. But if it’s going to be a real trap, then it needs to have convincing bait. Serdoa is a good wolf so I might be wrong, but of the remaining veterans he’s the most village I see.
5. Charriu: I didn’t like his signaling that he might jump off Scooter, but I believe him about being busy and reading light, so I’m willing to let it slide.
6. CMF: Any sufficiently bad villager is indistinguishable from scum. Not buying it in CMF’s case here.
7. Pindicator: This is a special case right here. Either Pindicator is Scooter’s scumbuddy, and they coordinated that claim timing to clear at least one of them, or Pindicator is a SK and Scooter had his claim ready to pounce the second Pin claimed. There is an outside chance that Pindicator is genuine, but nobody claiming redirector, plus my jailing/blocking, plus the mysterious Cyneheard death having no explanation...looks bad.
8. Rowain: Really, really tried very very hard to save a clear caught scum. Village Rowain would NEVER give up a bird in the hand for the chance of one in the bush like that.

[Serdoa]

I stated at the start of the day that I don't like how we sit around, all on scooter and don't get any reads. That was and still is my opinion and I stand by that. Even if we are nerly certain we have a wolf (and I was not), it is not sensible to sit around and just "let it happen".

So, the day happened, we got a wolf, hooray. More importantly my, as Commodore put it, "clever trap" did imo give some more info on a few players. As I did go into D3 believing that basically everyone could be a wolf that at least helped me to get a better grip. So lets start:

Commodore: Currently in my town-camp. Was on scooter already on D2, and while he has some posts that I'd question, he does now constantly call naufragar now frogger, so thats a plus.

pindicator: Leaning town. We had yesterday 3 possibilities:
a) Both tell the truth: Obviously not the case.
b) One of them tells the truth: That would leave pindi as our town-vig.
c) Both lie.

I do lean towards him being town. If they both lied and did this play because they thought one of them would by lynched I offered them a third possibility. But pindicator did not take it. If they were both wolves, it would be better to take the third possibility, then "decide" on D4 who of them is the wolf. Maybe at that point town would not even look at them, but lynch me for pointing the wrong way. So yeah, I think a wolf would have handled that situation differently.

Charriu: Undecided, leaning town. He did start the day with voting scooter when only Comm and Rowain had made their votes (for scooter and pindi respectively). There are some small things (he kept on scooter when the vote was 5-5, had he switched GKC would have been lynched instead), but if they are town does depend on what alignment others have (if GKC is a wolf, we just pushed two wolves, so as a wolf it would have made no difference for him)

Rowain: Serial killer. Simply put, his voting is atrocious, his play is mainly distrusting others, what makes sense as SK as you need to get them all killed and that doesn't work if there is trust between a few players, and his post stating that "most likely the only useful villager Serdoa will die tonight" is just... you don't do that as villager. If the wolves or the probable SK need any other hint to be set off, that would be a good one. I believe Rowain to be a SK. And I believe he should be our next lynch, to reduce the kills at night.

GKC: Undecided. I would not be surprised if I incidentally pushed a wolf up while just trying to see what happens when I prsent a third option. I do stand to what I wrote about SDs and your post history though.

now frogger: Undecided. I had my questions about him from D1 and might therefore be too harsh in my judgment. His play yesterday could be a wolf testing if someone jumps or a villager being really swayed by his arch-nemesis (sorry, I exaggerate). I leave that one to Commodore, as I know I can be single-minded if I have focused on someone early.

CMF: Leaning scum. I don't like his long posts and if I'm alive I'm happy to go into more detail, and he did defend scooter pretty adamantly already before D3.

superdeath: Scum. I don't care really. If you are not, you played an awful game and left your fellow villagers hanging without reason. And there is nothing to go on is the worst. If you are a villager, we will lose because you refused to actually play.

Sorry, everything shorter than I planned, I started too late as work took too long. But basically: I might have made a case on the actual rest of the wolfpack, look into that.

[BRickAstley]

End of Night 3

[BRickAstley]

GeneralKilCavalry was killed. He was a Villager.

Day 4 Begins

[Commodore]

@GKC your posts are nearly as usefull as SD's.

Hurray we killed a wolf but we still have the problem with pindicator tomorrow and you and SD and Commodore. And we have plain simple done very little this day.

A little list to lynch: GKC, pindicator, Commodore, SD,         Charriu, CMF, nauf

Most likely the only useful villager Serdoa  will die tonight.

Luckily I will be traveling starting Friday so at least that reduces the time I spend here.

At your hands, of course!

Rowain

[Serdoa]

Rowain

[Commodore]

GG, General Kill Cavalry. I hope you play again, it's a compliment to be killed like that.

[pindicator]

GG GeneralKilCavalry.

I laid out why I thought Rowain was a scum buddy of scooter's yesterday and his willingness to switch from me to scooter to GKC all fits with that in my eyes.

[naufragar]

And another round of Comfirmation Bias: The Game.

GG GKC and sorry. I would've bet the farm on you being a wolf.