WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[GeneralKilCavalry]

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Any sufficiently terrible villager is indistinguishable from scum; EXCEPT when it comes to actual lynchings. I'm a terrible villager. Well aware of that at this point - my reads (outside of Meiz, Bob, and Lewwyn), are gloriously, hilariously wrong. But I don't think the "brilliant wolf" theory holds water with me, since sticking by scooter would have been a terrible move unless I sincerely thought he was more likely a villager than not. I still don't see how he was so obviously scum...which goes to show that I am terrible at this game. 



Anyway, I think while it's no guarantee that everyone on scooter was village, I DO think the GKC people (myself included) are more obvious scum targets. I've been back and forth on Rowain, but I have learned that Serdoa and Commodore are both much better than me at this and I trust their instincts to back up my gut. Anyway, I think I mentioned some vague impressions of Rowain in the early days (mostly vague, helpful posts without going after specific players), but we know what THOSE reads are like now. I also find the weird voting patterns suggestive. Mostly, though, I'm following better players' lead here. 

I'll do my best to explain any of my long posts you don't like, pin, Serdoa, and thankfully we're not in lylo yet (assuming I fail to convince of you of my sincere bumbling), but I can't promise much more than what I've got - I thought I was pretty transparent throughout.

[Commodore]

@Rowain, you've been pushing hard for me as a wolf, partially I think because of how hard I worked to save my scum-buddy General Kill Cavalry. Could we see that case laid out now, please?

Also, while treating Serdoa's bite marks, I took some handy measurements, would you mind if I take these calipers to your mouth?

[Commodore]

(In all seriousness I think Serdoa's SK bet could certainly also be true, and I don't get any confirmation for whether or not my doctoring is successful, just a confirmation that the protect order is received).

[Commodore]

I was able to re-read GKC, which was easier then expected, because he may have a lot of posts, but those are rather short. Note that this is already a tiny negative in my book.

First of all GKC was one of the players, who was defended by a known wolf (#70) early on. I know that doesn't immediately mean anything. It's just a tiny puzzle piece. We also know that there was his rule-break with the edited post on day 1, but that also was a tiny issue. To add a nother small issue is the hiccup with his vote-testing (#113) to which I have to say, you could have just tested that in the Offtopic section of the forum.

Bigger accusations came from dead villagers like Meiz (#575) and I wholeheartedly have to agree, that definitely looks like a defense for Cyneheard - a by now known wolf. In addition to that he this post reads like a deliberate jab at Bob (#267) and in the end he also voted Bob on day 1, which saved Cyneheard. On day 2 he voted nauf, which was a safe null vote.

He also claimed credit for the push on Cyneheard (#432)(#489) although he never actually voted against Cyneheard (His only vote against Cyneheard was a vote that he himself called a test and definitely falls into the early joke-vote phase). He later defended that (#578) claiming that all answers lie in (#255). But I have to say that #255 post is rather weak.

Another tiny issue from night 2, he said he wanted to post something that night, but never followed through with that (#674), which is a disappointment.

Then we have the already mentioned 8 minute posts between (#716 - #718)

All in all that also doesn't look that great for GKC. I'm still very much conflicted with now 3 people being very suspicious, but I will stay on scooter, who looks the worst right now.

This is so ****** disingenuous. Post 70 contains barely nothing about me, and my berating of SD’s choices, if we were wolves would have been in private. It was absolutely necessary to get both bandwagons in full force, and SD, being a low-attention player this game, needed to be corrected immediately. Him moving from scooter was nothing short of strange, and would’ve served to confuse the field. Imagine if a bunch of the wolves had pushed to vote SD for his careless dilly dallying between scooter to pundits. We needed players on both at the moment, and as the day evolved scooter became a clearer choice. 

I’m sorry, but those who pushed against me this night should be high on everyone’s scum radar.

As a note, Charriu, I'd love to hear your takes given the nice comforting blue on GKC now.

[Rowain]

Apparently I have only voted for villagers so far.
Well I indent to continue this record Rowain

yes I'm a vilager but clearly you won't believe it before you see me turn up blue. Your choice how to read the game what to make from Commodores claim especially what it does concerning Night 2

Commodore claims he protected Meiz and got roleblocked. Pindicator claims he shot scooter and got roleblocked/redirected what ever . scooter was a normal wolf without powers. So what do you think happened on N2? How many wolves do you think we have if there is a SK about?

But yeah lynch Rowain.
Commodore It is funny that you claim town Rowain would never do xy without even knowing anything. Not to mention that scum Rowain would have bussed scooter so hard you would need a spatula to clear his remains from the asphalt.

But ok lynch me no problem you see i am even helping you. I'm sure this village will find enough excuses to not play and hunt for wolves in the following days anyway.

BTW Commodore & Serdoa you should come to an agreement if I'm the SK or a wolf and maybe you find some contradictions in your logic.

[Charriu]

First of all GG to GKC and sorry for doubting you. Now to answer to Commodore's post:

I was able to re-read GKC, which was easier then expected, because he may have a lot of posts, but those are rather short. Note that this is already a tiny negative in my book.

First of all GKC was one of the players, who was defended by a known wolf (#70) early on. I know that doesn't immediately mean anything. It's just a tiny puzzle piece. We also know that there was his rule-break with the edited post on day 1, but that also was a tiny issue. To add a nother small issue is the hiccup with his vote-testing (#113) to which I have to say, you could have just tested that in the Offtopic section of the forum.

Bigger accusations came from dead villagers like Meiz (#575) and I wholeheartedly have to agree, that definitely looks like a defense for Cyneheard - a by now known wolf. In addition to that he this post reads like a deliberate jab at Bob (#267) and in the end he also voted Bob on day 1, which saved Cyneheard. On day 2 he voted nauf, which was a safe null vote.

He also claimed credit for the push on Cyneheard (#432)(#489) although he never actually voted against Cyneheard (His only vote against Cyneheard was a vote that he himself called a test and definitely falls into the early joke-vote phase). He later defended that (#578) claiming that all answers lie in (#255). But I have to say that #255 post is rather weak.

Another tiny issue from night 2, he said he wanted to post something that night, but never followed through with that (#674), which is a disappointment.

Then we have the already mentioned 8 minute posts between (#716 - #718)

All in all that also doesn't look that great for GKC. I'm still very much conflicted with now 3 people being very suspicious, but I will stay on scooter, who looks the worst right now.

This is so ****** disingenuous. Post 70 contains barely nothing about me, and my berating of SD’s choices, if we were wolves would have been in private. It was absolutely necessary to get both bandwagons in full force, and SD, being a low-attention player this game, needed to be corrected immediately. Him moving from scooter was nothing short of strange, and would’ve served to confuse the field. Imagine if a bunch of the wolves had pushed to vote SD for his careless dilly dallying between scooter to pundits. We needed players on both at the moment, and as the day evolved scooter became a clearer choice. 

I’m sorry, but those who pushed against me this night should be high on everyone’s scum radar.

As a note, Charriu, I'd love to hear your takes given the nice comforting blue on GKC now.

I think I need to start with my post in which I laid out my investigation of pindicator and scooter (#811). From that point on I was comfortable enough to keep my vote on scooter. I had noticed that a bus on GKC had started, but didn't thought much of it. Then a few hours later nauf posted this (#812), which brought GKC up to 4 and scooter to 5, but more importantly nauf directly addressed me (or at least I felt directly addressed) about GKC being a wolf. So far I was undecided about GKC, but wasn't focused on GKC in particular. Nauf brought up some points that I thought warranted an investigation. I started my investigation at this point (#816) and had asked GKC to respond to the accusations at hand in hopes for a better breadcrumb.

As you may have noticed from my posting intervals, I do need some time for these investigations. Things that happened during my investigation were:

• Chevalier voted GKC and brought it to a 5 vs 5
  
• Nauf switched to scooter after being convinced by Commodore to vote for scooter, bringing us to a scooter (6), GKC (4) vote if I'm not mistaken.
  

I finished my investigation (see above) with less than an hour on the clock to deadline. I didn't wrote it in the initial investigation, but my lynch order at the time was scooter->pindicator->GKC. I admit I didn't think about posting or not posting my investigation at the time, I was just happy that I was able to finish it and was just happy to post after roughly 2 and a half hours of re-reading posts, making notes etc.

In retrospect I should have pointed out stronger in my investigation that scooter is the best lynch target for day 3. Looking back at my notes the things that made me favor scooter as a lynch were:

• scooter voting for 2 mislynchs, GKC only for 1 and a null vote on day 2
  
• More dead villagers suspecting scooter
  
• The scooter vs Lewwyn saga
  
• scooters tone at day 3
  
• The vig claim
  

If you have any more questions just fire away, Commodore. 

Now there are three more things I wanted to say.

1. I think it's only fair if I ask nauf the same question that Commodore asked me, especially because he tried to convince me to vote for GKC at (#812) and then just later switched from GKC to scooter (#829)
2. I absolutely don't like Rowains posts after scooters reveal. Those are just so awkward, strange and scummy after that werewolf reveal and he even continued after scooter was verified a wolf. So Rowain has to answer to a lot today.
3. Obviously we should all look back into scooters posts and see what we can find there. That's what I will do next anyway.

[naufragar]

1. I think it's only fair if I ask nauf the same question that Commodore asked me, especially because he tried to convince me to vote for GKC at (#812) and then just later switched from GKC to scooter (#829)

Indeed. Until GKC flipped town, I was absolutely, 100% convinced he was a wolf, and I'm sort of dazed thinking "what did I miss?" And honestly, I'm still not sure.

I was on Scooter since the Pind/Scooter dual claim, and I was always content to lynch Scooter. I switched to GKC for the reason I gave: I thought lynching one of Pind/Scooter didn't solve the problem with the other, so I figured lynching another (absolutely, 100% sure...) wolf would give us some insight. After Commodore's compassionate appeal to my better nature, I figured that was a way out of the Pind/Scooter information blackhole: lynching Scooter and him turning up town would damn Commodore, giving us some info outside of Pind/Scooter.

It's pretty clear my judgment was mortally flawed. As I said, I'm not sure where I went wrong, because the case against GKC seems seemed so clear cut. I'll vote Rowain, not really because of the split towards GKC (of which I was one of the architects), but because of the absolutely bizarre aftermath. Commodore was practically confirmed town after the Scooter lynch, and I can't understand the antagonism towards him after Scooter's name turned red. I've got to slow down and pretty much reevaluate everything, because a lot of what I've been thinking has been based on assuming GKC was a wolf. (You can see that I sent a jab at Commodore (and Scooter!) for never diving into GKC.)

[Commodore]

GG Rowain, I like the dignified march to the gallows, much more seemly. If it helps, I could see you as a traitor, as well. You weren't going to get any points for busing Scooter Day 3 after your behavior and voting Day 2. We can't all have as spotless a voting record as Superdeath, but you are far too good of a player to have as perfectly awful a set of reads as that. 

Just because Rowain is obvscum doesn't mean we should be silent all day, though.

With 17 players, I don't know how  fruitful speculation on faction balance is, but it feels like a weird place. My speculation earlier was that if there's a Serial Killer, there could be a 3-man pack with some fairly jacked powers (JOAT is great). Scooter being vanilla wolf torched that somewhat optimistic hope. Could still be so, and that's lovely, but I have my doubts. So what do we have as more likely scenarios? First paragraph is the faction fraction, second is just my free-associating while tired and sleepy.

Scenario 1: Occam's Village
In this scenario, the simplest explanations rule the day. So the kills are from two factions of scum, and last night something blocked a kill. Either my doctor order worked, or a serial killer faction opted to not shoot, or both factions went for the pretty conclusively not-a-wolf GKC. In Occam's Village, there are four wolves (or three wolves and a traitor) and a single serial killer. Because simple.
(In best Occam's Village , Pindicator is the serial killer, who claimed to be the one-shot vigilante because his shooting gave him flop-sweat. He claims to be redirected because he was redirected, or it's one of his superpowers (SK's tend to be brutes with bulletproofing, etc). Occam's Village, Rowain is a wolf who led the passionate charge trying to save Scooter and kill GKC because that's what wolves do. There is one more wolf who Rowain is trying to save, one with some cover who shouldn't be risked in an actual fight that would leave the final wolf obvious. Life is simple in Occam's Village.)

Scenario 2: Honesty Village
In this scenario, we are blessed with that most rara avis, a Real Actual One-Shot Vigilante. As compensation to the poor village for having such a cursed tool, there is only one faction, The Wolves. This is an honest place, so what terminated poor Cyneheard was some kind of JOAT bomb or something. Only the dead know. In Honesty Village, there's something like four wolves and a traitor or five wolves, else this is very anti-wolf setup. It's a weird place, I don't trust it to exist, but with Pin's claim so very specific and no supporting claims, I don't know how else to parse this. 
(In this village, I think Rowain is still scum because he's clearly not very honest and that behavior isn't tolerated in this bucolic burg. Pindicator is Realms Beyond's own Rodney Dangerfield, so of course Brick would give the poor man that worst of all roles. Wolves have to have a redirect or jailer, and I got roleblocked as well. This is a lot of unclaimed powers, but with three remaining scum, there are enough to account for it. Uh, in this village we're also at lylo.) 

Scenario 3: Packwar Village
In this scenario, there are multiple packs. So two wolfpacks, wolves and a SK/apprentice, something like that. This is a highly lethal setup, but heyo, there's another reason presenting itself for only one nightkill...we wiped out one of the packs.
(In this village, reads are much harder, because factions of scum are hard to sort out.)

Anyone have good other scenarios? Nothing in this thought experiment makes me not still prefer to kill caught scum self-voting.

[Commodore]

A note, none of these villages disallow the Pindicooter Ballsy Gambit Of Mutual Busing (PBGOMB), where both are wolves trying to get one across the finish line.