[SPOILERS] Cornflakes PB53

[Cornflakes]

I have galleys set up already for flexibility. One option is scooters island city again. The other option is Mr. Cairo Island city. Once I have the merchant I will compare the mission value to both destinations. I don’t trust scooter to not close borders when he sees the merchant born.

[Cornflakes]

Huge development on the diplomacy front this turn. TBS mirrored back the fish-fish I have to trust him here, and hope that he trusts me. After mirroring the fish-fish, he requested a gift of my spare silks as a separate offer. I accepted! Maybe we can be best buddies after all.

And that, folks, is how I'm planning to get a tech lead. Stage 1b will continue with another GA stacked after this during which I'll try to hit Astronomy for naval supremacy and movement advantage. Stage 2 will be to convert the tech lead into land via conquering ... probably Carthage.

That was fast.

Hey, 15-20 turns is plenty of time for the fish-fish to cool off. And at the end of the day ... "might makes right". The key is to ensure "might" is achieved before trying to enforce "right", or it can backfire spectacularly (e.g. Commodore's attack on me in PB49, or my attack vs. Wetbandit in PB43).

Digging into this further ... what other options do I have?

- Scooter? Currently top power, current tech/GNP leader means he can easily achieve Engineering + Gunpowder if he chooses those techs. I only have 1.5 fronts to attack. Scooter's northern coast has a couple minor targets. But worst of all, conquering Scooter opens up a direct border with MFG-leader Commodore. No thanks.

- Mr. Cairo? We barely share a naval border, and he is surrounded by all other rivals. Not an option.

- TBS: Presumed current tech laggard, although GNP has spiked recently so he is catching up. Strong MFG is a negative, speedy decapitation is necessary. Easily a 3+ front war. I can essentially threaten all TBS cities the turn after I declare war. I can send EIM down the western coast, through Thapsus canal to his eastern coast, threaten with galleys on the inner sea from the safety of my island city, and advance on foot along the two land bridges. I will force TBS to defend his backlines cities, either razing to hit his production capacity, or forcing him to lighten up for my frontal assaults down the landbridges. EIM can explore enemy territory without declaring war which means that they won't get kicked out if TBS closes borders. I can send loaded EIM into Carthage backlines a turn or two ahead of the war declaration. My first GG will likely be attached to a galley for free-upgrade EIM 7-move Morale + Nav_2 monster. Conquering Carthage leaves me with the same number of land neighbors and complete control over one of the inland seas. That would be a huge advantage.

[NOTE: Commodore has the same opportunity vs already-weakened AT. I'm hoping that Scooter views preventing this as a currently-larger threat than my still-budding potential.]

[Cornflakes]

Also I forgot to mention that I landed The Great Library on the turn I launched the GA and swapped into Organized Religion + Caste System + [not shown] Buddhism religion.

   

Uhhh ... I just noticed from the screenshot that TBS revolted to Organized Religion. Did I miss that he launched a GA? Scoreboard also shows him with Buddhist religion. I will confirm next time I'm in game, but I saw him birth a GScientist in the last turn or two and there's no way he burned 2 turns in anarchy so he must be in a GA now. Interesting. Another Buddhist nation, and the holy site is located right on my eastern border  That could be a tasty prize either for a PHI GProphet to shrine, or a very tasty prize if Scooter builds the shrine.

This is also the approximately-end-of-turn overview screenshot. Notice the almost complete lack of cottages in my land. Then check out the screenshots that TBS and Mr. Cairo are posting in their threads (right?) and notice all the cottages they have. TBS is even cottaging hills (see the two hills north of Leptis, and there are a couple more outside of my screenshot view)! Those cottages villages-nearly-towns would be delightful prizes to obtain through conquering of TBS territory.

[Cornflakes]

TBS is confirmed in a golden age, and Mr. Cairo launched his first one this turn as well! He adopted Vassalage and HR confirming that at minimum he's reached Feudalism. I'll have Alphabet EOT to confirm.

[Cornflakes]

Dice roll comes up ...  ... MERCHANT!!! Off to the races! This will be a turn of breakeven research, and then I'll get about 8-10 turns of 100% research (depending on how bad Pacifism hits the expenses). My choices are scooter's island for 1500g or Mr. Cairo's island for 1300g. Last time scooter extracted a toll from me. I don't trust him not to close borders, so I'm playing it safe and moved the GMerchant towards Mr. Cairo's borders:

   

GMerchant is currently onboard the galley 1SW of Thapsus. See that event log in the above screenshot? Anything in particular stand out to you? Take a closer look at the GPP that spawned ... Commodore birthed a GArtist in his GA, and bombed Sunnyside in the center this turn   the more conflict between scooter and Commodore the better from my perspective. Commodore made a low-risk/high-reward attempt on Bielfeld this turn. There were 4 heavily damaged Chinese units inside, and Commodore only had 3 HA left in Sunnyside. Just one lucky dice roll away from the raze. Again, the more unproductive fighting that these two engage in while I quietly tech away in my corner, the better.

   

Check out that sharkfin on my food graph  That food is being invested into tech via specialist beakers, trade missions, bulbs, and extending of the GA. The culture bomb hasn't shown up on the graphs yet, I noticed Sunnyside listed at 4051 culture on the victory screen which was clearly an artist bomb. I actually didn't notice when the artist was born at the time.

And now the real news of the turn, and the information I've been eagerly looking forward to:

   

In terms of beakers researched to date, scooter and I are approximately equivalent (thanks to my Engineering bulb). TBS does not have Feudalism or Machinery and thus is 3 techs from Knights. Curiously he did not adopt HR at the start of his GA so he must be going for a HR + Vassalage swap at the end. 

I think I have myself the necessary window of of peace through defensive tech superiority vs. TBS and geopolitical tensions across the map vs Scooter in the east  This is my cue to hit the gas and blast forward to the point where I can conquer TBS. TBS MFG is mildly concerning but I will be devoting most of my hammers to military in the GA which should be enough to maintain defensive parity, plus drafting in my back pocked in 5 turns. With Compass, I expect TBS to be constructing Cothons throughout his empire before military.

[Cornflakes]

I was mulling over the tech situation in the above screenshot some more, and another thing jumped out at me: TBS has Literature! Why Literature? Was he going for the Music artist? Did I barely beat him? I don’t think he has had enough combat to unlock Heroic Epic yet but I should do some city-gazing and confirm whether it’s built yet.

[Cornflakes]

Rolled the 85% GScientist and bulbed Philosophy  completed the trade mission to Mr. Cairo’s island for 1300 gold  overflow from Meditation is nearly enough to complete Civil Service this turn, so almost a full turn of overflow into Nationalism. That will be a 3-turn turn tech, EOT99 (7th GA turn). After that I’ll have 5 more GA turns at 500 beakers per turn. Paper will be just over 1 turn. Education will be 1 turn after the bulb. Gunpowder will be 2.5 turns, and I’m drafting muskets by T105.

I’m aiming for another merchant trade mission towards the end of my 1st GA to keep up research in the 2nd GA: Liberalism > Military Tradition (Cuirs), then Astronomy.

[superdeath]

Very nice

[Miguelito]

Curious how you are sustaining research. Besides the bulbs, is it more Rep specialists or just coast and GLH?

[Cyneheard]

Curious how you are sustaining research. Besides the bulbs,  is it more Rep specialists or just coast and GLH?

He did burn a Great Merchant for gold - and that 1300 gold is probably more effective beakers than a bulb honestly.