WW 46: Wolves Return to Realms Beyond

[superdeath]

GG GKC.

[pindicator]

Commodore, I would think the simplest explanation for Night 2 would be a wolf redirecting Meiz and scooter. That way you really protected scooter and I really shot Meiz. It would be nice if Rowain flips as a redirector to confirm. It still doesn't explain Night 1 to me at all, but is giving a JOAT a bomb ability a normal occurance? But if that was a bomb, wouldn't there be four deaths on night 1? Gaspar as the Target, Cyneheard-As-Bomb, Cyneheard's Target, and then El Grillo hiding behind Gaspar or Cyneheard? I suppose Cyneheard could target El Grillo in this scenario.

Cyneheard still makes more sense to me as a vig target, but then why didn't that vig step forward today and push for a lynch on me? But running with that thought experiment for a bit, two vigs would suggest to me that there are still several more scum targets after rowain - and I had not even considered traitors. Doctor Saul returns to the village? I had been thinking one more scum, whether wolf or SK, but if the village is power loaded perhaps there is more.

I have the benefit of being able to eliminate your first scenario as possible. Although, another SK possibility: there is a SK out there there that targeted Cyneheard night 1, doubled up on Lewwyn or Meiz night 2, and then doubled up or hit your doctored Serdoa - well, quite an unlucky SK in this scenario. Seems farther down on the plausibility list. However, with there still being more scum out there after Rowain I could see CMF as another scum of any variant, based on his reluctance to cast any kind of meaningful vote. I feel a bit better about Charriu than you do. I think you are likely town due to earlier scooter run-ins, and Serdoa for being the first to push Rowain.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Fair. 

The main reason for my votes is I do feel a bit over my head in this game. The first day I explained, Day 2 I thought I had a good read on Adrien, scooter, and Commodore only to be hilariously wrong on all of them, so the last two days I've felt like I have no clue what's going on. I don't know how everyone found scooter so obviously scum, I can sort of see the case for Rowain (Charriu's post 4 hours ago is the kind of argumentation that I like and can follow). 

I would dispute that I have no meaningful votes - my votes for Adrien and GKC were both me taking a firm position. The wrong one, as it happens, but hey! All I can do is all I can do. 

Rowain doesn't really seem to be defending himself much? Is that something we should be concerned about as we lynch him?
?

[Commodore]

I guess if you want extra hilarity, bomb a traitor Rowain who I foolishly healed?

Really wish we knew who ElGrillo had hid behind and if he was the normal or weak variant of hider. I see no breadcrumbs either way, alas.

[Commodore]

Rowain doesn't really seem to be defending himself much? Is that something we should be concerned about as we lynch him?
?

A little bit. I am more curious about why Scooter gave up early, to be honest. I think that's where my traitor speculation comes in, maybe he was signalling someone not in the wolf thread to stop defending him? Or not stick a neck out?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Checking in at lunchtime.

I accept this morning's responses from Commodore and appreciate his thoughts in this post. On the matter of superdeath, I know that he usually has Wednesdays off, except when he's called in for overtime, so unfortunately there's nothing to be gained speculating. That said, he absolutely owes us something in the next 22 hours, you can't play this game without engaging with at least some of other players. I'm not asking for detailed reads on all 16 of us, or a big list like CMF's, but I'm putting my vote on superdeath at deadline if he stays silent.

For now, I think there's much more to be gained by joining those pushing the wagon on Bobchillingworth. He still hasn't posted since last night and didn't respond to my question to him here, though it's worth noting that Rowain answered for him fairly quickly afterward. Bob, have you updated your thoughts on Lewwyn after the discussions he's initiated? Have any reads for us on anyone else?

Upon a re-read of this middle third of Day 1, I don't feel great about the Bob wagon, mostly because he took so long to respond to his early accusers that it became convenient to join, like how pindicator and Adrien did (even with the caveat that he says he realizes it's not the best vote). Between that and the noise SD created with his arrival, it's been easy to call them out as making anti-town plays and blend in.

That said, Bob's defense seems to be him implying that he doesn't care for Day 1 and he'll contribute more later, which I disagree with on principle. If he insists that what's truly important is analyzing how the Day 1 lynch wagon formed, then I would expect him to be trying a lot harder to not be lynched Day 1. So per scooter's question, which I agree with: Bob, who do you find as a better target than yourself? There's enough time left in the day to change the outcome here.

Rough morning, catching up on the overnight posts.

Rowain, I voted to prod Bob at the time as one of the remaining vets who hadn't had much to say. I was hopeful at the time that putting a third vote on him would prompt him to respond with some more reads of his own, which in hindsight according to his posts he wasn't going to do in any case. As I said earlier I disagree with his choice here and think it's anti-town (and for that I didn't even get a direct mention in his post, I presume I got lumped into "and others" during his critique of Lewwyn).

Another thing that stood out is Cyneheard's silence over the past 18 hours as he's become a clear lynch alternative. He left us with a (plausible-enough) excuse that he regretted signing up for the game, but telling us that you're not enthusiastic and planning to contribute less hurts the town, especially if it's true. He set himself up to be another easy mislynch, because we can't judge his intentions, only his posts.

I'm keeping my vote on Bob.

These are El Grillo's final three posts in the thread. In the first post, he mentions superdeath, mostly for his silence, and saying he'd vote him if SD didn't chime in. In post #2, it's pindicator and Adrien. In the final post, he says Cyneheard's silence stands out and that he's setting himself up for an easy mislynch if he's town. 

If I had to guess, he hid behind Cyneheard, because that was the last name he mentioned before Bob (who was killed), and who he was suspicious of. SD did show up and talk a bit, so the situation with him changed and El Grillo didn't bring him again, and pindicator and Adrien are mentioned in conjunction with no way to differentiate them. 

I have no confidence in this conclusion, though, because my confidence is shot all to hell. I also don't know what it tells us, because I've sort of swapped from "play the game as best I can" to "follow along and try to get better."

[Charriu]

I did give scooter another re-read now with the new information that he was a wolf. Here are the tings that I found:

DAY 1
In (#34) he references his first post of some older game. I don't know that reference. Could there be any clue in there?
In (#111) he defended nauf for being a newb.
In (#287) he gives a summary of all the targets from day 1. He declares not getting wolf vibes from nauf or GKC, prefering to lynch GKC. He also notes being sceptic about Superdeath being a wolf.

DAY 2
In (#478) he tries to frame Commodore.
In (#481) he once again puts Superdeath into town-lean
(#511) is very interesting.

• He takes up Chevaliers defense of scooter
  
• Defended himself against Commodore without any new information
  
• He throws some shade towards Chevalier
  
• He's claiming to suspect Rowain being wolf
  
• He's unsure of pindicator
  
• He writes some nonsense about my avatar
  

In (#545) he tries to frame Commodore once again.

DAY 3
In (#733) he once again tries to frame Commodore
His big post (#754) is largely defending/framing against pindicator.
In (#756) he once again returns to Commodore as a target, but also returns to defend Superdeath, nauf as being town, while also throwing some suspicions towards Superdeath, Serdoa and Chevalier.
(#767) is a direct response to the last post in which he explains, why he left out some players.
In (#805) he claims pindicator might be a serial killer


So what to make of this. I think the jabs at Commodore are a non-entity. I can't see Commodore as a wolf, because he's the main accuser of scooter on day 3. His constant defending of nauf and Superdeath is noteworthy, could be a setup or a defense of a wolf. We need to here more from those two, especially Superdeath, who needs to be more involved in this game. I don't know what to make off the interactions with Chevalier, I kind of want to put them into the bad for Chevalier corner. Then there is pindicator, who he was most focused on at last. This actually brings me to another topic.

The serial killer theory:

I think when we read scooter we also have to take the serial killer into consideration. With us talking open about there being one Serial Killer, we have to assume that the wolves might also think about that. I think it's important to keep that in the back of ones mind when reading scooter. To that extend scooter tried to setup pindicator as a suspect. Now I know we have to be careful about trusting a known werewolf, but we might find information regarding a serial killer with those known wolves.

All in all I was a bit disappointed reading scooter. A lot of his interactions are with now dead villagers, which limits the information at present.

Lastly I wanted to asked the more experienced players this, because I don't understand it:

What do we gain if we know, behind whom El Grillo hid?

[Rowain]

Rowain doesn't really seem to be defending himself much? Is that something we should be concerned about as we lynch him?
?

You should be extremely concerned especially as Commodore has nothing to offer in case I turn blue (as I will). Besides of gloating that is.

You all should plain simple accept that I'm a normal villager no traitor no wolf no SK and think about what that does mean.

[Serdoa]

CMF, I think you are overdoing the "I'm clearly not made for this, I have no confindence"-bit. As a villager, you will be wrong on your assessments. Am I certain about Rowain? No, actually I am not. But the truth is: As a villager, you can only evaluate what others state and do and vote accordingly. And that evaluation will sometimes be wrong. I've been on villagers for half a game because I stubbornly believed them to be a wolf. I was lynched because I played badly and lynched because I played too well - and was both times a villager. I think I even lost one game for village because at the end I voted to lynch the fellow villager over the wolf. It happens.

As for Rowain, the issue is that his play - the play right now - is anti-town. It is similar to what Bob did: "How dare you suspect me, your meta is dumb, you are dumb, just lynch me". At the start of these games here, we did let get players off the hook with that play. And sure, some were villagers. But it makes it too easy for a wolf/SK to hide behind these plays.

The only good play for a villager if he gets mistakenly targeted is to help the town gather information, be it by reminding of points in their favor, be it by helping gathering information on others. That way, even if you get mislynched, you do help your fellow town-members. It's basically boils down to: Understand that you don't win by being alive at the end, but by us as a team lynching all wolves.

And if someone does not do that, if someone is throwing a fit and is abrasive , you just have to assume they are a wolf. And if they are not, hopefully they act differently the next game.

[Serdoa]

You should be extremely concerned especially as Commodore has nothing to offer in case I turn blue (as I will). Besides of gloating that is.

You all should plain simple accept that I'm a normal villager no traitor no wolf no SK and think about what that does mean.

Rowain, I don't have much time today, you said you would be travelling soon so you probably won't have either. So instead of speaking in riddles, just say what you think. If you are indeed a villager, than help us, instead of stating "think about what it means". Just state outright WHAT it means in your opinion.