[SPOILERS] Cornflakes PB53

[Cornflakes]

Cartage is TBS?GL.

Correct!

 yes, that is correct

So you plan on libbing MT?

 yes, for the 750 beaker differential. That is estimated 10 turns away, and given my current tech lead I may consider the option of sandbagging Liberalism and trying to get something more expensive. But MT can't be bulbed, and +750 beakers now is not an insignificant sum (1.5 GA+Rep+TradeMission turns, or probably ... 7 normal non-GA turns  ).

Played a quick turn last night, but checked the math on my next GPP and I'm actually going to birth the GArtist and GScientist on the same turn , the 800 GPP in the capital, and 900 GPP in a later-in-turn-order city. I keep wondering each login whether the war horns will sound and dreading a swarm of knights materializing in my borders before I'm ready. In thinking through the intermediate-to-long-term I'm starting to doubt the wisdom of building universities+Oxford before the Carthage conquest. That is about 500 hammers of investment into research AFTER I've reached the next (Renaissance) generation of military tech. Instead, build the military now, capture the cottaged wonderland that is Carthage, then build the universities and turn on research again to advance to the Industrial era. Once lesson I have learned is that it is better to commit 100% to war once the decision is made. No 50/50 economy. Bring the hammer down hard with the full weight of the empire, then recover afterwords.

[Cornflakes]

Also, Taj is really expensive! Like 11 GA-turns of my best hammer city expensive  That will not provide enough ROI, and that project has been put on the back burner. We cannot win the game with our current territory. We must conquer a neighbor, and the earlier/quicker the better. I’ll take the whips and drafts now, and hold off on Taj until the GA can be used for helping recover from the conquest.

And speaking of whips and drafts, have I mentioned how absurd the happy caps are on this map? I have 23 happiness with markets + Forges, 20 happiness with only cheap forges. Even with 4 whip anger still cooling off in Rotterdam I can still draft 3 times and whip another 3 times without really feeling the impact. 

[Cornflakes]

New plan, emphasizing speed over everything. Here is current TBS military:

   

This is borderline phantom defense. But as I've said previously, TBS is a wizard and I expect a defensive force to rise out of thin air. Half of the current Carthage troops are isolated in Ligurian to the east of Thapsus. I plan to ignore Ligurian and focus 100% on the Carthage core. Ligurian can easily be picked off in the mop-up phase once I take out the bulk of Carthage production capacity. If scooter wants to take Ligurian before I get there, I say "have at it". My cultural dominance in the area will provide a nice buffer, and Ligurian will not amount to more than a lightning rod vs. China anyway. 

With Police State + whip + draft I can convert pop into military incredibly quickly. TBS has reached Feudalism and will be adding protective G3 Longbows to the mix so this will get a lot scarier very quickly. I want to use speed to my advantage, and tip the balance of production solidly in my favor early early in the war. Drafting will raise alarm bells, and I therefore want to strike as fast and hard as possible after I begin drafting (T104).

Notice the Education research bar at the top of the screenshot. I carried over 400 base beakers of overflow from Paper, and bulbed 1751 beakers with the GScientist that was birthed this turn. 100% of this turn's research will overflow to Gunpowder putting me a sliver short EOT103. I want to draft a turn of maces T104 anyway since Carthage is heavily melee focused in their troops, so that works out perfectly. Gunpowder completed EOT104 with huge overflow, enough to finish Liberalism in 2 GA turns but maybe not enough considering the GA ends. But a comfortable EOT107 Liberalism > Take Military Tradition T108. But I will already launch my attack T106 with the 3rd round of draftees and 2 rounds of whip production.

EDIT: The reason for this accelerated-attack plan is that I'm short a GScientists for the Printing Press + Astronomy bulb on the accelerated-astronomy bulb path. Rather than delay a couple turns for Astronomy, I speed up a couple turns by cutting out Compass + Optics + Astronomy + Printing Press before the attack. Instead, I'll research Astronomy the hard way and have EIM ready in time for the next victim

[sunrise089]

This definitely seems fast. [popcorn]

[Cornflakes]

TBS just researched ... Paper, via Theology  Keep working on the economy there! 

   

I debated whether to hit Liberalism first to ensure that TBS doesn't pull some wizardry to steal it, but without Philosophy or Education he would need to generate 2 GScientists for bulbs, plus at minimum research Drama + Liberalism with currently no gold in his treasury. I'm not sure what TBS is trying to achieve here. Maybe trying to force me on to Liberalism straight away instead of Knights (which I'm already skipping)? Paper itself doesn't unlock anything, and is only a stepping stone to Education or Astronomy, but he's lacking Machinery+Optics for Astro. Why would TBS research Paper? At this rate he won't even have Machinery by the time I attack.

Starting next turn the whip will be cracked and the draft imposed. All cities will be whipped T104 and T106. I can draft 4 cities per turn based on map size.

   

Ignore the draft signs on Nijmegen and Rotterdam, instead I'll draft Maastricht. Triple draft plus 2 whips sounds extreme, but speed is key to overwhelm Carthage ability to respond. Without Engineering, only Leptis can contribute to the defense of Sabratha or Oea. 2/8th of mainland Carthage production cities will be wiped off the map before the backlines cities can even get units to the front.

EDIT: I close borders with TBS next turn. No point in hoping TBS doesn't notice, PBSpy will show 10+ score decreases and the log will show civics swaps to Police State/Nationhood/Slavery/Paganism. Might as well hide my troop mix and movements. I'm debating whether to declare outright war to lock in turn split. We have been first in turn order (which I much prefer) ever since our last war but I would hate getting a double move to knock me into 2nd half.

[sunrise089]

You’re on gunpowder now. Can you remind us the current techs to come? It looks like your attack is going to commence before the big tech spike finishes, right? Are the whips and drafts going to delay the techs or are they ‘locked in” due to specialists?

It seems like if you love being first in the turn order you may as well declare early. How confident are you that TBS will infer he’s your target absent a DoW?

[superdeath]

How confident are you that TBS will infer he’s your target absent a DoW?

a bunch of whipping/drafting score decreases along with open borders being dropped does hint at something lol

[Cornflakes]

You’re on gunpowder now. Can you remind us the current techs to come? It looks like your attack is going to commence before the big tech spike finishes, right? Are the whips and drafts going to delay the techs or are they ‘locked in” due to specialists?

All I have left to research is Gunpowder (150) and Liberalism (1500) [base beakers]. The swap out of Representation will hurt (-60 bpt, I've already fired a third of the specialists as of this turn) and the population loss will hurt as well, -40/turn additional lost each turn from whips. I am going to launch my 2-man GA to keep up production for the war, and continue researching towards Astronomy. So I get the following beakers:
T104 - 450 (1100 remaining) Gunpowder complete with overflow
T105 - 410 (790 remaining) 3-turn Liberalism
T106 - 370 (420 remaining)
T107 - 330 (90 reamining)

This is close enough that I can swap tiles and specialists as needed and build research in cities that can't contribute military as easily (like the small island city to the northwest with 10 production/turn, and the Nijmegen which won't have a galley-ferry). Once I swap civics and sacrifice the pop I'll have a better idea. Liberalism would require 3-turns anyway, just with a lot of overflow instead of barely squeaking it out.

It seems like if you love being first in the turn order you may as well declare early. How confident are you that TBS will infer he’s your target absent a DoW?

99% confident that TBS would know. He's watching my catapult stack with a chariot. It goes in motion towards his border next turn. Either he sees it in motion, or he sees me close borders ... combine that with 10-12 score decreases and there can be no doubt. The only difference might be that an outright DoW may trigger a heavier response. Since TBS has been maintaining the turn split religiously and since 2nd in turn order is generally valued higher, and since the difference isn't really all that big I'll probably just stick to the plan. Maybe TBS will defer a whip or two without the outright DoW.

[superdeath]

sorry for including so little production tiles

[Cornflakes]

sorry for including so little production tiles

Now that I have the draft I don’t mind as much, especially with all the happiness you gave us some variation in terrain would be nice. Except for one “starting” plains hill per player I don’t think there is a single brown tile on the entire map  no desert either just grass, flood plains, and oasis.