[SPOILERS] ljubljana embraces the dark side

[ljubljana]

Turn 22



The southern scout is acting strangely; it moved next to Pilcrow, but it doesn't have the !. I don't know quite what to make of this - do I dare to dream that it's going to start attacking the city next turn? If not, we have no hope of catching it even if we move the warrior over, so I decide to ignore it and make sure that our trap on the eastern scout holds. We should be guaranteed the Archery eureka next turn with this setup, since I think the warrior's ZoC blocks the scout from moving W-SW next to Pilcrow. Wow, I can't believe slinger-first is actually working out . Actually, I wonder...is it possible that the mechanic is that only one scout can be activated at a time for any one player? Depending on what happens on this interturn, I might maybe consider leaving the eastern scout alive until the southern one has moved away just in case this is in fact the case.

The big news of the turn, though, is that thrawn spent 80 gold on something, which seems very likely to be a Pítati upgrade. If so, the military scores do not reflect this yet, but that's consistent with some of the weird behavior they've been displaying so far, eg, when thrawn's scout was wounded and then promote-healed earlier, the score didn't upgrade to reflect either of these until the following turn. If it is a Pítati upgrade, and the capital's working on another with Agoge about to unlock, we could be in for a very quick attack. I don't want to offer any Danegeld too quickly (since thrawn might well accept now and just eat the 36g loss by attacking at t40), but I'm increasingly leaning towards doing so in around 10 turns, perhaps in conjunction with making our first Archer upgrades. Hopefully that could buy us the time we need to grab Tithe and dissuade t70-ish attacks simply by being strong; it is unfortunately starting to look like thrawn's attack might be too fast to be deterred by a t40-ish DoTF, and missing out on Tithe is a substantial economic hit relative to the standard Russia gameplan that we'd love to avoid if at all possible. I also think that, at this point, a third Archer upgrade probably isn't in the cards - not because we have no way to acquire the gold (we should be able to clear the now-empty camp out in the fog fairly quickly) but because we won't have time to build two more slingers between now and when we absolutely need to have Archery tech to signal strength to thrawn. That is, unless we delay Pilcrow's monument even more to build two slingers, hmm... I may do that if thrawn builds a second Pítati next instead of a settler, but otherwise I think the risk of delaying PoliPhil until after the era change is too great.

I don't really dare to even hope for this, but there is also at least a chance that the Pítati upgrade is indicative not of a rush in the making but of increasing desperation with respect to barbs. Thrawn's military score has been fluctuating a lot over the past few turns, and we also haven't seen the telltale jump in gold that we'd expect if this was due to clearing a camp, so the timeline in which thrawn went scout-first, got hammered by an early camp activation, then had to go slinger-second and rush archery to hold them off is at least consistent with the available evidence. We can dream, right?

Internationally (I say, as though speculating about our impending invasion somehow does not constitute that ), CMF founded a second city out there in the fog this turn, as expected. Archduke and thrawn's capitals are both at size 4, so it seems increasingly likely that they both went builder-first. Ioan's capital is still at size 3, but whether this implies builder-first coupled with slow growth due (perhaps) to barbs or whether they built a settler and I just missed the Empire score fluctuation remains to be seen.

[ljubljana]

Turn 23



Okay, we finish our first Lavra, and start a slinger, due in 5. We then grab the eureka for Archery, now also due in 5, though we'll of course delay it at least one turn to finish this slinger; after Pilcrow grows, I'll probably switch it over to production configuration for the time being to make sure we get the monument/archer/GP/settler that we need before the era changeover done in time. Fleuron, meanwhile, will probably start one of builder, archer, or monument after its Lavra, in decreasing order of likelihood. We then position our forces to cut off the southern scout, who appears to be blundering into the same trap as its eastern compatriot, which is quite a relief.

Internationally...wait, what just happened? Thrawn gained 6 ES and 60 (!) gold, is that two Prince-level camp clears on the same turn, with just a warrior, slinger, and scout? I wonder if the scout found an undefended camp somewhere or something? If so, I think it can't have been our undefended camp, at the very least; I don't think the scout has had enough time to do an end run all the way around our borders to reach it in the time since we last hung out with each other on t16. Ah, but the bigger story is thrawn's military score, which is...unchanged from last turn? I...what does that even mean? Where did their 80 gold go, if not to a Pítati upgrade? I guess they must have bought a third-ring tile or something? If they think the builder part of this game will go on long enough for that to pay off over another upgrade, that's probably a good sign for our survival odds...though, then again, it's not like they don't still have plenty of gold for future upgrades given the camp clear. Also, Archduke has a settler out; still none from Ioan/thrawn yet as far as I can tell.

[ljubljana]

Turn 24



We catch another break from the scout movement, and double-attacking with the slinger and warrior manages to juuust barely kill it! I still have no idea what was going on with its movement, or why it doesn't appear to have been activated, but I'll certainly take that outcome! That should free us up to start advancing towards the eastern camp, and to hopefully even return to some limited amount of scouting, since the continued decline in thrawn's military score makes it seem increasingly possible that we'll get at least a little more time to prepare for an attack than I feared a few turns ago. Hopefully, that in turn will help us close the major ES deficit we're running with respect to folks like thrawn (who gained 3 more this turn - I wonder if one of those +3s is a natural wonder to our north or NE that their scout beat us to?) and CMF (up to 17 already!).

[marcopolothefraud]

Looks great! Be careful about timing your research; I think research finishes before production, so your slinger might not get out in time to upgrade it. Three questions:
- How many Great Prophet points do you need until you found a religion? Does it matter which HS you found it on, or which city will become your Holy City?
- What will Fleuron produce after the HS? Will it make an archer and then a monument?
- IIRC you've mentioned slowing down Pilcrow's growth when it reached size 4. However, you're also going to chop the marsh to make way for a Government Plaza. Are you going to plan a "strategic chop" to hit 5 or 6 pop in one go?

Huh, I kind of sound like a news interviewer. Oh well.

[ljubljana]

Looks great! Be careful about timing your research; I think research finishes before production, so your slinger might not get out in time to upgrade it. Three questions:
- How many Great Prophet points do you need until you found a religion? Does it matter which HS you found it on, or which city will become your Holy City?
- What will Fleuron produce after the HS? Will it make an archer and then a monument?
- IIRC you've mentioned slowing down Pilcrow's growth when it reached size 4. However, you're also going to chop the marsh to make way for a Government Plaza. Are you going to plan a "strategic chop" to hit 5 or 6 pop in one go?

Huh, I kind of sound like a news interviewer. Oh well.

Haha, well, if so, I am happy to hold a press conference .

- Yeah, we're going to have to put a turn into Pottery in a few turns to delay Archery until after the slinger builds. I will then probably upgrade our new slinger on its second turn of existence to send the clearest message we can to thrawn about which tech we just researched.
- We need 60 GPP for a religion, and should be at 4 after this interturn. We'll therefore be at 14 when Fleuron's Lavra finishes on t29, putting our ETA for a religion at t41. I'm not really sure it matters which city founds the religion, since the religious pressure mechanic is really unlikely to be relevant; I'll probably just found at whichever city spawns the GP to save a turn of travel time.
- I'm not totally sure yet - the answer probably depends on a) what thrawn does and b) what the math looks like production-wise over the next few turns. I may actually get Fleuron started on the builder next, which we'll need in probably 12- to 15-ish turns for the Irrigation boost and which I'd rather take off of Pilcrow's plate if possible. On the other hand, maybe that's far enough away that we should sink some hammers into the monument first, to avoid spending anything on the builder without the 30% discount in play; if Fleuron does go monument - builder next, we could always procrastinate on Irrigation's completion by starting the Writing research... There are certainly some good reasons for doing the monument next - we're really behind in culture, and have essentially no chance at boosting PoliPhil given how stealthy the city states have been (I wonder if they're all on little peninsulas and islands like in PBEM17 or something?), so we may end up needing both early monuments to make sure we get that ES on time. But on the third hand, the builder also contributes culture by speeding us to the GP and the second Pingala promotion. I'll probably do some math and see how many turns we'd delay the GP by going monument - builder, then make a decision. Meanwhile, Pilcrow's next builds will ideally be monument - archer - GP - settler, though a military spike from thrawn could of course derail one or both of these plans.
- I'm actually planning for the marsh chop to go into Fleuron via tile swapping, so it can work high-hammer tiles now but still get to size 4 in time for the +3 campus. I'm hoping that we'll be able to start that in 20-ish turns at the latest after Archery - Pottery - Irrigation - Writing research. That could be cutting it kind of close, but I think we'll make it, and if things really look dicey we can always chop the PFH to the SE to speed things along. We should be able to get the discount on both the GP and the campus if my spreadsheet math is correct, which should help make sure this all adds up. After those researches, I'll probably go for HBR, then try to figure out the quickest path to lumbermills, which will really unlock the full potential of this start.

Oh, and a quick question for any lurkers - what do you think of the screenshot sizes? I'm not sure what the standard is here - if it would make this report easier to read, I'm happy to downsize them somewhat from the large-ish default setting.

[ljubljana]

Also worth mentioning (though a spoiler for PBEM18) is the following:

According to Kaiser's PBEM18 thread, Work Ethic might be getting patched in the next few days to remove the bug where pillaging holy sites permanently removes the production bonus. Does anyone know what happens when a patch is released during a PBEM? I assume the fair thing to do is to not have the patch suddenly start applying mid-game, but I'm also not sure how to keep Steam from downloading it...

[suboptimal]

Oh, and a quick question for any lurkers - what do you think of the screenshot sizes? I'm not sure what the standard is here - if it would make this report easier to read, I'm happy to downsize them somewhat from the large-ish default setting.

If you use [ screenshot ] [ /screenshot ] tags instead of [ img ] [ /img ] tags the pictures should be reduced in size and can be clicked to expand. I've been using those in my reports and it works quite well.

[ljubljana]

Oh, and a quick question for any lurkers - what do you think of the screenshot sizes? I'm not sure what the standard is here - if it would make this report easier to read, I'm happy to downsize them somewhat from the large-ish default setting.

If you use [ screenshot ] [ /screenshot ] tags instead of [ img ] [ /img ] tags the pictures should be reduced in size and can be clicked to expand.  I've been using those in my reports and it works quite well.

Thanks for the heads-up!

Turn 25




Not a whole lot to report; we move our units northwards towards their destiny. I think I'll have the warrior move up onto the GFH to the NW of Fleuron and start defogging around there, and have the slinger go after the now-undefended camp - that way, we'll have the stronger anti-barb unit exploring the more dangerous and larger northern areas and we'll keep the stronger anti-thrawn unit closer to home. That is, assuming there isn't some way for the eastern camp to have spawned more warriors or something despite not having been activated...if it does that, I'll likely end up regretting this choice and having to reappropriate the new archer to rectify it. I think that's unlikely enough that I'm willing to chance it, though.

Also, Ioan has a second city - I guess I did in fact miss an empire score fluctuation there. Ioan and CMF both have a size 3 capital and size 1 second city, so we're at least not behind growth-wise, though who knows how long that will last for against these Civ6 veterans .

[ljubljana]

Turn 26



Not a ton to report. Our units continue north in search of their next adventure. We swap back into Archery, for real this time. Archduke founds a second city, and CMF turns up with the first non-Rome second civic. We would be close to that ourselves, but we're skipping the Craftsmanship boost to enable our delayed-builder plan, and in the hope that getting the Pingala culture promotion early will make up for the lost culture. Indeed, were we to swap to Foreign Trade now to spend 6-ish turns on a builder and another 4-5 improving the tiles, we'd not only lose production from making the builder without the discount in place, we'd also delay the GP and thus the Pingala promotion by 10-ish turns, costing more culture than the boost is worth, in addition to not building the monument that Pilcrow will now get to build instead of a builder. Thus, while I'm not sure in retrospect if it was the right plan from the outset, I do think our current position favors committing to skipping the boost and doing our best to time things such that we start the GP as close as possible to the turn we pick up SW.

[ljubljana]

Turn 27



Our slinger moves forward to kill the spear, earning the Bronze Working eureka. In doing so, we reveal...a warrior that spawned somehow despite the camp not having been activated, who attacks us on the interturn . The slinger can promote, though, so we can heal off the damage and move our own warrior forwards next turn. You'll also notice I have backed off ever so slightly from my bold claims that I'd cap Pilcrow's growth at size 4 - though it is indeed starting to run out of good tiles to grow onto, I'm worried enough about getting all the science and culture we need done in time to grow it to size 5 anyways sometime between now and when the GP completes, which will then be worth a nice 1.3 cpt and 0.5 bpt. Even after Fleuron and Pilcrow both grow, and even if they both build monuments and we get the early Pingala promotion, PoliPhil will still take 9 turns to research at 12-ish cpt unboosted, so we're really cutting it close with respect to making sure that finishes during this era (which is looking pretty essential to making the Monumentality math work out). That's scary enough that my current thoughts are that we should do a double monument build next, then go builder-archer-GP-settler in Pilcrow (with the boosts from Craftsmanship then in place), or even builder-(start settler)-GP-(finish settler).

Thrawn spends another 80 gold, picks up a third tech, and adds 4 era score as well - the military scores don't reflect this yet, but that surely must be the long-awaited Pítati upgrade. Luckily, we can answer this with our own Archer upgrade (or perhaps upgrades?) in just two turns. I think the window in which offering Danegeld makes the most sense will be if they start something that looks like a real build-up, but before they've invested enough that they then have to rush us to get something for their investment. I'd say the crossover point is somewhere around 3 Pítatis (?), so that's the benchmark I'll be watching for in my upcoming military score tracking. Thankfully, the conjunction of this upgrade's somewhat late timing and our fortuitous Archery eureka means that we can upgrade two archers very soon if we so choose, which, if done on the same turn we acquire the tech, will most likely be correctly interpreted as a "we know what's coming, don't try us" signal by thrawn. If we're very fortunate, perhaps that will deter such a buildup before it even begins, especially since thrawn's most likely on a settler now rather than more Pítatis. I mean...pindicator only had slingers when Nubia rushed them in PBEM17, and that rush still failed, with suboptimal's game ultimately suffering for it. Would hitting someone with Pítatis who knows it's coming, already has archers in their cities, and could have DoTF in 15 turns really be the play with the greatest chance to win the game for thrawn? The answer might in fact be yes from a metagaming perspective, since my MP warmaking skills are unproven and the alternative is trying to out-conquer known veterans CMF and Archduke later on...but the more convincing a case we can make that the answer is no, the more likely it is that thrawn will back off.

You can also see that thrawn's scout has come by to say hi again, no doubt to scout out the defensive terrain around our second city. If we're lucky, it'll stick around and give us a chance to send thrawn an even clearer message by upgrading an archer literally right in front of them .

Also, I think Pilcrow is going to start working the copper tile soon over a GFH, since our gold situation could be fairly dire depending on the ES math. We would need 260 gold to rush a boat, and, if we upgrade both archers ASAP, take Tithe (itself a risky move, of course), and planation the sugar on (say) t41, we'd have 33 + 2 * 14 + 10 * 9 = only 151 gold at t50. The era change will most likely happen in the t50-60 range, so we'd need another source of gold for that to be possible. Clearing the camp would be a start, of course, and after SW we could run Conscription to ease the math a bit more, but the extra 40-ish gold from working the copper for 20 turns could easily make the difference even if we do both of these things. I wonder if that's a significant enough concern to delay an Archer upgrade? I think probably not, since obviously we'll do everything in our power between now and then to avoid needing to waste money rushing a boat, and, if thrawn attacks, our winning chances will no longer be particularly dependent on whether we land Monumentality or not .

Of course, if thrawn does attack, my plan is to fight on defiantly for the rest of forever and cause as much damage as we can, not because I would still think we can win this game, but because we're really playing iterated Civ6 PBEM here, and this dead-hand strategy is optimal with respect to our odds of winning future games .