WW47: Small Mafia Shenanigans

[Alhambram]

GG Pindicator!

And thanks Kaiser for overview of player roles. As stated before I suggest town player hide their power and don't reveal it now as suggested by Kasier to possibly open day 2 wth it.
Especially with tracker Pindicator gone now, any reveal makes remainig town power player target from wolf if 2nd day ends with a mislynch.

At my post #176 I promised to give my overview:

TOWNIES:

Pindicator: started El Grillo's train and ended up dying as townie.
Meiz: Clearly expressed intention to join El Grillo's train before me and actively searching for clues
Kaiser: Also accused Thrawn but with better reasoning than me, voted for El Grillo.
Thrawn: El Grillo's tunneling him and voting for El Grillo.

UNCERTAIN

Warriorknight: His fairly few posts make somewhat hard for me to read him, plus points for him due more acitivity at end of day 1.
Amicalola: almost kept him at supicious level but then Meiz's post #198 came around with valid points.

SUPICIOUS

T-Hawk: voted same as El Grillo (granted which I and Kaiser did same before switching), also few posts at end of day 1.

[WarriorKnight]

GG pindi. Sucks we lost our tracker, though that does narrow the setup down a bit. Agree our remaining PR should not reveal.

TOWN:

thrawn - I find it incredibly difficult to believe a EG/thrawn pairing is possible as EG did nothing but tunnel thrawn all of day 1. If thrawn really is a wolf either they are the worst wolf team I've ever seen, or diabolical geniuses.

Meiz - Also difficult to believe is a wolf. Called out EG's tunneling almost immediately, and was a key part of EG's lynching. Can't completely rule out a Meiz/EG scenario to give Meiz deep cover, but it is very unlikely.

Kaiser - Less certain of this one, but still town. Claims he started writing post #146 containing his EG vote between #128 & #129, which would be before pindi even voted EG. Considering the length of #146 and that it claims the vote is 4-4, it is believable. Has made very reasonable accusations of EG, and seems unlikely that he would start a train on EG with that logic if a wolf.

UNSURE:

Amicalola - Absent from yesterday's proceedings that gives town points to almost everyone else, although for legit reasons (and I'm very much in the same boat). Has contributed the least to the game aside from T-Hawk but did suspect a T-Hawk/EG combo before signing off, not sure if a wolf would leave final thoughts for the day with their wolf buddy as suspicious. Nothing conclusive though.

Alhambram - His vote on EG is not very convincing, could easily be a wolf trying to gain cover by lynching a fallen teammate. But was 2nd to vote for EG and kept his vote on him, so I don't see much reason to suspect him over T-Hawk today.

SUSPICIOUS:

T-Hawk - Has not defended himself aside from 'yeah I suck at this game' and did nothing yesterday aside from parking his vote on thrawn, EG's tunneling target. EG defending him doesn't do him any favors either. I can't say for certain if he is a wolf or legit is terrible at WW (perhaps both), but there is little for us to lose lynching him either way.

[Amicalola]

Hi everyone. GG Pindi, sorry you got got.
I had actually been leaning El Grillo before I went to bed, but I stayed on T-Hawk because the votes were mostly on him at the time, and honestly I didn't see much difference between an EG and a T-Hawk lynch for the first day; I believed (and still do) that if either turned up guilty, the other was too. I would have switched to EG had I been around later on though.
Right now I view a lot of people as safe town, largely for the reasons outlined above by others. Of the people I'm not confident about, I'm vaguely suspicious of Alhambram, although he voted EG early in the train and stayed on him, so I'm losing that. I think Alhambram and I each just have residual "I don't like that you voted for me, even if you logically seem innocent" syndrome towards each other.

T-Hawk is the person I'm most suspicious of, thanks to a) poor reasoning, in my opinion and b) El Grillo fairly blatantly ignored him beyond a surface-level waffle yesterday. My overall suggestion barring some magnificent reasoning from T-Hawk is to vote for him today, and to vote for Alhambram tomorrow if that by some miracle isn't correct.

[Kaiser]

Unlike pindicator I have high opinion about politics. T-Hawk therefore won’t get vote from me.

Thrawn response after my vote looks good, altough I do argee with some arguments from kaiser.

El Grillo did seem supicious for me at start And then pindicator and meiz talked me out head that El Grillo is possible scum.

Therefore I shall sin myself with Flip flopping that I did accuse tharwn of, vote for El Grillo

Alhambrams reasoning remains shallow/unprecise/rushed in this game, however he supported the El Grillo bus after Meiz explicitly stated that he wil only switch if it gets traction, which Alhambram gave.
This is the one positive point I see in Alhambrams favor

Just back home from work and finished dinner to see good news that one of mafia member has been caught!

GG El Grillo,

Yeah, this is the first time I've nabbed a wolf day 1 and I'm not even sure i can take credit for it now

You can take credit for it, it was you who did start El Grillo's train even altough you suddenly left train before it arrives at station.

To expand on what I said earlier in case I get whacked overnight - El Grillo posts in #138 that he just woke up. Alhambram posts just 5 min later in #139 that he has reconsidered and is voting El Grillo.

So a strong possibility that El Grillo realised that his bacon was cooked and told Alhambram to join to decrease suspicion. He'd be my current vote for day 2, esp. since I suspected a team there already. But we have a night and a day ahead of us so let's see.

Interesting theory, let's me tell what happened that moment. I just finished with main things of my work and checked my IPhone and noticed Pindicator starting the train.
I decided to jump and started write culmsy way  with my IPhone which I did warn before at answer of El Grillo's questionarrie (ironically?) which took me 5 minutes. I didn't notice El Grillo's post till after I did post my switching vote.

But if you are still uncertain about me, how about to start lynch Alhambram train at day 2 together? I know that I generated a quite suspicion at day 1. Why not lynch me off at day 2 so town can properly discuss at day 3 about who is remaining wolf without my presence generating distrustfulness.

And if we have a cop, a jailer or a tracker I'd suggest to check him (Alhambram).

Anyone is very welcome, I have nothing to hide, maybe I will give coffee and cookies (or tea if person visiting me don't like coffee).

Let us discuss the Alhambram wolf example here.
If he does not switch to El grillo, they could have expected at least me to switch to El Grillo, as I was hinting this in my long post before when I questioned thrawn. That could bring Meiz to switch as well leaving us in the following scenario.
- El Grillo (Pindicator, Kaiser, Meiz, Thrawn)
- thrawn (El Grillo, Thawk, Alhambram)
- Thawk (WarriorKnight, Amicalola)

As thrawn pointed out, El Grillo and Alhambram reacted quite closely together in response to starting an El Grillo bus. Alhambram could have easily argued here that thrawns answers to my questions were enough information for him to vote Thawk instead.
This would have openened the possibility for El Grillo to switch to Thawk as well, not only preparing a different 4 vote heavy lynch before 4 votes could establish on himself, but also leaving his thrawn train and using the pressure on him as the reason for it.

WarriorKnight and Amicalola were not likely to switch anymore due to timing reasons, and I personally was assuming the same for Thawk due to his no participation there at the end besides being a prime suspect.
If he was present, he could have switched El grillo as well, but it looked like we had quite some people on time constraints at deadline, including El Grillo. So either they had no time to think this through (and surprisingly did not do scenarios upfront) or Alhambram is unlikely as 2nd wolf.

Heads up: I am going sleep and tomorrow I need to go to work extra early and I exepect to be home after end of day 1 night, with other words next time that I can express my thoughts more here is at beginning of day 2.

There is still one unanswered question directed at me from Kaiser at his post #146.

this untrue statement, as thrawn was doing a lot but not flip-flopping his votes. See my argument above.

I challenge that no lynch would be the best outcome for a power wolf as lylo would be pushed a day by no lynch (see post 69). Apart from that I have established now for myself that the no lynching by thrawn has been a no issue.

Can you enlighten us @Alhambram?


I didn't know what to expect from day 1 of werewolf/mafia game, so I simply checked who did change votes the most and Thrawn's voting behaviour did stand out for me.
It seems that I tend to make blunt statements, not only at Thrawn but also against El Grillo initially when he posted question list which caused others call me upon for it.

As for no lynching thing, I didn't really gave much tought about lylo thing and pushing lylo by day. And I assumed that no lynching would benefit powerwolf most because he would be still ailive for night.
But I slowly start to get enlighted about what to do and don't in werewolf game and terms as lylo and other things, I am type player who is learning by experiencing mishaps.

I shall leave my view of others for start of day 2, if I am still alive at that point.

I am still not sure why Alhambram insists on this, here is thrawns voting pattern:
- Kaiser
- Pindicator #33 (19th 20:00 CEST) - #113 22nd 08:00 CEST) with some no lynch / pindicator / no lynch shenanigans in between
- El Grillo #113 (08:00 am CEST)
- Thawk #121 (14:00 pm CEST)
- El Grillo #142 (17:35 pm CEST
- Deadline 18:00 CEST

He Basically stayed 36/48 hours with his vote on Pindicator. He really only started flip flopping his votes in his last 3 votes which were argued as defensive votes to make sure he does not die, which I can follow as reasoning.

Tally as of post 158:

Lynch votes
4 votes: El Grillo (Alhambram, Meiz, thrawn, Kaiser)
3 votes: T-Hawk (WarriorKnight, Amicalola, pindicator)
2 votes: thrawn (El Grillo, T-hawk)

As I laid out Alhambrams vote on El Grillo as a wolf team would be weird or at least an amazing predictive and mind boggeling wolf play, I think we can likely narrow the remaining wolf down to be among:
- WarriorKnight
- Amicalola
- Thawk

The play to kill pindicator in this circumstances feels weird as his last second switch would at least have landed him on this suspet list, even though with a strong town lean in my eyes. Pindicator was looking though as very dangerous for the wolves due to him starting the El Grillo train and being seemingly an experienced player giving good and very targeted advice.
The wolf might also have correctly identified that Pindicator was sitting on a power role, thrawn and me were are already suspecting it.

I believe this points in the direction that the remaining wolf might be a newer player or a mind reading genius, the former fits all 3 I believe, the latter I have no idea.
However the fact that killing pindicator narrowed the suspect list further down looking not to thought through, leads me also to put Alhambram back on this list as his play this game seemed gave mostly this shallow/unprecise/rushed impression.
No offense here (I am sorry if I do, please remember I am German, being indirect is not), but I hope this is more the sign of a shallow/unprecise/rushed wolf game by the 2nd wolf.

My current ranking would be:
- Thawk - no explanation for his Day 1 play, were you time constrained at the end?
- Alhambram - seemingly shallow/unprecise/rushed play, wolf vibes are there but he has the big El Grillo vote plus
- Amicalola - still undecided here, I still feel he might be skating by
- WarriorKnight - town lean but not as clear as for the others, voting pattern at the end not as positive but he was likely sleeping

Thawk
Wow, that sucks, that tracker could have helped, though at least now we narrow down the setup a lot.  Yeah, I know my play looks terrible so far.  I'm used to playing tabletop combat board games where you try to avoid aggro from everyone (and I felt any post near the first deadline would only draw more), not this where I'm learning it's unavoidable when you have to start making some accusations.  I can only say my original guess, that Thrawn/Grillo was one of the wolves (correct) and the other was one of Amicalola/Alhambram trying to start up their own separate bandwagon, then Grillo let Alhambram pile on later to gain credibility.  And Pindicator started Grillo's wolf train then switched to me, which could mean Alhambram killed pindi to point attention to me and away from himself.

Pindicators play here was dangerous, but he was trying to bait wolves out, which he did not achieve.
When Pindi switched, Alhambram and El Grillo could have switched quickly, putting a lot of suspicion on them but saving El Grillo for the first day. Killing Pindicator during the night confirmed that he was town, clearing him from suspicion and enforcing that he was actually baiting here. Another reason not to kill pindicator during the night if Alhambram would be the wolf.

In hindsight:
- Your thrawn argument is stretched thin here, I do not see why you believe we would get much information out of thrawn at post #107, as he was vote-stuck on pindicator still so there were only accusations/suspicions (mostly actually his defense to El Grillo) as paper trail. Your question at the end does not help, as it keeps the door awfully wide open
- You were sending friendly neighbors to El Grillo here, did you not say earlier that the questionaire might be a higher than 2/7 probability of being wolfy?
- You were giving incorrect information here (Meiz pointed that out later) regarding lylo and ties. Could have been lack of knowledge though, I did not know it myself
- You never elaborated on your post where you gave El grillo a 2/7 wolf vibe but voted thrawn instead. It was also not as detailed as I would have expected from your #78 post, but I might be having high standards here, as you covered all the players
- Here is your answer to El Grillo's question, you were already mentioning Codenames reasoning here, which I am not sure what to make of in retrospect. You never ended up voting WarriorKnight though but stuck with thrawn all day long

I stick on T-hawk for the moment but want to hear more from Alhambram, Amicalola.

Please chime in everybody

[Kaiser]

Man my posts take so long to write and I make so many breaks in between that I voted T-hawk twice by accident last post

[Meiz]

Pindicators play here was dangerous, but he was trying to bait wolves out, which he did not achieve.

No he was not, he was getting cold feet which usually happens in last minute in this type of circumstances (until you become cold blooded by playing too many ww games)

[Alhambram]

If we are all certain, shall we lock the votes and have Brick resolve early?

Typing this from my work while on break,
Hasn’t cast my vote, yeah i also vote for T-Hawk

[Meiz]

If T-Hawk has a town power role, he should claim it asap and not hold on until last minute. Otherwise I don't see much alternatives with lynching him next, unless he really picksa up his game and suggests a better alternative.

[WarriorKnight]

If we are all certain, shall we lock the votes and have Brick resolve early?

Yup. Pretty sure Brick won't do it unless its unanimous though, which will give T-Hawk at least 1 more chance to give a response.

[Amicalola]

Honestly, it sounds as though we're all pretty certain. I'd be happy to resolve early.

On the one hand, good job town! On the other hand, this hasn't quite satisfied my WW itch..