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Gazglum · October 2nd, 2020, 06:28

And quickly that is because I am uncertain about the way votes moved to Thrawn and he is newish, and because Gaspar and Commodore I feel I need to see more of before making up my mind, and nobody else seems to be in the running.

Rowain · October 2nd, 2020, 06:31

(October 2nd, 2020, 06:26)Gazglum Wrote: Okay, there's not much traction on Omar, and now it looks like he's gone to his safe house to wait for things to blow over. I'm not confident enough to try and drive a lynch on him, so I will move to Pindicator. And sadly I will now be out to bed until deadline.

Omar had before your switch as many votes as q, pink and commodore.

Rowain · October 2nd, 2020, 06:32

Pindi not pink

Gazglum · October 2nd, 2020, 06:35

I know, but nobody else seems eager to pick him up, and if we spread the votes 3/3/3/3 then wolves can guarantee swing it their way.

Cyneheard · October 2nd, 2020, 06:41

(October 2nd, 2020, 06:35)Gazglum Wrote: I know, but nobody else seems eager to pick him up, and if we spread the votes 3/3/3/3 then wolves can guarantee swing it their way.

I can't say I've got a clear Omar/GES read. And a split that wide also makes it a lot harder to parse wolves rescuing one another too (especially since the at-risk wolf could just switch their OWN target to save themselves - not exactly wolfish to protect yourself from the noose. You can be 99% certain you're hanging a villager and it's STILL correct to get them over yourself, no matter what your alignment is).

AdrienIer · October 2nd, 2020, 06:46

(October 2nd, 2020, 04:47)Gazglum Wrote: ADRIEN! ADRIEEEEN! Wherefore art thou Adrien?

I had classes this morning, I'm catching up for now and will reread before deadline (I hope), but no time yet to organize my thoughts.

Meiz · October 2nd, 2020, 06:48

(October 2nd, 2020, 06:41)Cyneheard Wrote:
(October 2nd, 2020, 06:35)Gazglum Wrote: I know, but nobody else seems eager to pick him up, and if we spread the votes 3/3/3/3 then wolves can guarantee swing it their way.

I can't say I've got a clear Omar/GES read. And a split that wide also makes it a lot harder to parse wolves rescuing one another too (especially since the at-risk wolf could just switch their OWN target to save themselves - not exactly wolfish to protect yourself from the noose. You can be 99% certain you're hanging a villager and it's STILL correct to get them over yourself, no matter what your alignment is).

I haven't seen anything alarming in GES's play so far, though it takes a bit of time to get past the RP.

Meiz · October 2nd, 2020, 06:59

I wouldn't mind seeing Pind & Commodore as leading lynch candidates, while waiting for Lewwyn to arrive with his god reads.

Rowain · October 2nd, 2020, 07:41

@Meiz what is your read on kaiser?

Kaiser · October 2nd, 2020, 08:07

Very early investigation report (post started at #212):
Preliminary analysis based of previously played games (sample size 1), leads me to the assumption that we can expect ~4 / 18 participants to qualify as scum. The comparison in WW47 was 2 / 9 participants.

Quote:Brick_Astley (formatted for better overview) setup post

There will only be one traditional scum team

There may or may not be third party roles, possessed, traitors, etc.

Everyone will have at least one power (Edit Kaiser: likely limited though)

There are some major differences to WW47 in setting:

an additional layer of deception based on the RP effect, each player representing 2 personas, meaning it is easier for scum to hide
every player having a power role, meaning that it might be easier for town to identify scum, but also scum will be more powerful
3rd party roles could mean there is an egalizing aspect depending on game development, i.e. some scum turning village when a certain ratio/event is achieved or the other way around(this is a purely theoretical analysis, as I could not access any experienced sources for 3rd party roles)

With this in mind, I believe we are either sitting at 4 scum and maybe 1-2 3rd parties or 5 scum with 0-1 3rd parties. I do expect 3rd parties to be in sleeper state in the early game, meaning now, so I am basing my further analysis on the expected scum numbers for day 1.

I would expect scum to organize in different categories to be able to set up mislynches and misdirection but to also create a certain distance between the scum players if somebody should get caught. It is likely that scum will try to create a train on certain people but to leave it timely as to draw as few suspicion as possible and creating a town lean with other players.
The scum team has likely been reacting already to the day 1 play and started to position itself accordingly, so let us do a quick analysis of participation behaviour.

I currently see the following participation patterns:

High post count, high/medium contribution
High post count, low contribution - the sacrifical lamb/high effort hider
medium post count, high/medium contribution - the work horse
medium post count, low contribution - the tie breaker
low post count, medium contribution - the hidden champion
low post count, low contribution

I expect the scum strategy is to position itself in at least 3 or 4 of these categories while keeping distance, I marked possible expected setups/tasks in above list. These are very far fetched guesses, but represent a possible strategy and the basis for my further particpation pattern analysis. Please note that scum can be in any of my categories, I was just assuming where they would try to position themselves.
Also, it is certainly possible and even likely if we should face 5 scum, that scum are grouping in order to provide a better town cover. However this early it is more likely that they try to group with a villager.
Gut driven segregation looks the following, special investigation is detailed where done/feasible:

1. high participation, medium/high contribution
Meiz:
25 posts, many more as crossposts. Started RP but switched gears into investigation mode, I feel better about his play getting closer to WW47. Is poking more now as well. I follow a lot of his argumentation and see no reason why a wolf would calm people talking about a train on himself. Friendly Skeletor remains weird, nevertheless town lean. I might be biased by a strong and correct WW47 town lean however.

early vote of Lewwyn
picks up here the game I was expecting from him since we played WW47. Being inquisitive and poking people with detailed question to get detailed answers.
#183 first read on gaspar as a null tell, continues questioning people
#186 town lean on Gaspar due to having similar difficulties reading RP posts
#190 read on Bob maybe using Gaspar's early post to paint him as scum. Vote on thrawn, no explanation, pindicator 2nd target
#195 reason for thrawn vote (lack of contribution, not participation)
#197, #201 calming the Meiz train discussion (Sunrise, Gaspar, GES)
#209 no read on rowain so far
crosspost #217 shares my opinion on Jabbz voting argument without having read it at this point
crosspost #218 explains pindicator suspicion
crosspost #221 challenges thrawn on his claim about Gaspar setting up teams
crosspost #222 votes pindicator based of #218
crosspost #234 WK feels towny due to recent post
crosspost #249 explains why he thinks pindicator is scummy
crosspost #273 read on GES as no scum indication so far
crosspost #274 would like pindicator and commodore as leading lynch candidates and hopes for Lewwyn to chime in

Sunrise:
19 posts, a lot of contribution and I was having the feeling that I am leaning town on him due to the detailed and well constructed questions and investigation ongoing. After the detailed analysis, I feel he has been tunneling a bit more on Gaspar than I thought and while I follow his argument, I am not convinced it is strong enough for the tunnel. I am currently neutral/undecided as there have been some things off about him leaving a weird itch, even though his play seemed mostly pro town.

early vote AdrienIer
#67 points out voting progression pattern between Commodore and Gaspar coming late on the Meiz train, might have been early in the day but a good discussion topic
#69 vote Gaspar as he was last to jump on Meiz at that time and his argument seemed to be constructed. Inquires with novice and commodore about their thoughts behind their posts
#70 inquires Kaiser about his statement regarding nice Skeletor
#75 details his questions towards Gaspar
#79 inquires Rowain about hsi vote on Gaspar
#126 defends his reasoning towards pindicator, points out that wolves could slip up due to knowledge advantage when defending/posting
#147 summary, novice has answered sufficiently, commodore did explain his vote, though it still feels liek it had been a strechted argument. Asks Gaspar to answer on his #75 and tries to bait Gaspar by stating that he is a wolf
#149 wants Lewwyn, Alhambram, Bob and GES to participate more
#193 explains his questioning of Gaspar and his WW hunting approach. Asks Gaspar again to answer on his question. Points out to funny exchange between Novice and Lewwyn around the phrase "holding back" (3rd party codewords?)
#196 current read overview post, gives partially up on Gaspar answering him. Scum current: Gaspar #1, thrawn #2 (participation style), Lewwyn#3 (participation style). Alhambram, Kaiser, Bob - low participation. Cyneheard, Jabbz, and WK - poor signal to noise ratio. Commodore, Pindicator - quality posts but bad readings / votes. Gold - good signal in his last post
#200 points Meiz to reread Gaspars argument #72 for the vote on Meiz
#202 thanks Gaspar for the reply, but keeps him as #1. Changes to Lewwyn to check him for his low content
#205 explains why he found the Commodore / GES interaction weird. He points out that GES has a 2 sane reads on Gaspar and Commodore
#206 shares GES difficulty understand why commodore does not undertand his post

Novice:
25 posts, 9 more since starting his post and me getting to it. That is a lot especially regarding novice mentioning that he was holding back not to flood the thread. Another person I am undecided on as I typically like his explanations and can follow his reasoning. However he (she) tends to also be quite court, it could be his style but it is also keeping him flexible.

early vote on Gaspar
#46 early early voting pattern analysis on votes on Meiz, started a good discussion
#47 poking Gazlug
#58 poking Bob
#85 good explanation of his #46
#90 points out that he likes bandwaggoning. Also questions Gaspar on double standards between him and Sunrise
#96 town sunrise lean and support Gazglum#83
#113+ questions Jabbz on his accusation on him
#124 confirms Lewwyn that it was earnest post formulated RP, implication unclear as Lewwyn did not give a read on it
#172 poking thrawn about his play in WW47 and how he wants to play here
#175 handing out free passes to rusty people and bob, keeps vote on Gaspar as there is no clear other suspect, so bandwaggoning and tenous sunrise claim are enough for him
#176 holding back interaction
#208 asks about opinions on Rowain, fumbles around the holding back interaction
crosspost #238 rephrases his question to thrawn
crosspost #241 switches from Gaspar to Commodore for no reasons given
crosspost #245 still no reasoning for Commodore vote beyond not mislynched WW46/47
crosspost #258 list with crossed out people, likely town?
crosspost #262 explains Commodore vote based on him being slow about GES post

2. high participation, low/medium contribution
Rowain:
23 posts total, mostly RP, poking, nearly no reads, potential buddying up identified. Scum lean
Details:

early RP vote on Gaspar #15
sounds like RP but could be a read #20
defense on Gaspar vote #77
another defense/justification on Gaspar vote #81
push vote on thrawn, no reasons given #93
vote pattern analysis for Kaiser and Bob moving from novice to Jabbz #105
clarification that his comment on GES was no suspicion but a metagaming analysis #171
follow up if Bob and Kaiser still want to stay on Jabbz #150 potential buddy up situation
buddy up with Meiz for sharing a vote #212

Commodore:
17 posts, Nearly only short contributions, partly criptical, barely medium contribution in total after detailed investigation. I am not clear on all his posts but have currently a neutral feeling. He pokes only few people but keeps on the topic without tunneling. I do not know why commodore of all people is supposed to better understand GES, I did not without re-reading him and other people.

early vote for Pindicator
#44 switch to Meiz to get some pressure going
#104 switching to Gaspar, because he was finding novice's voting analysis scummy/manufacturing an excuse. Quite Lewwyn and Jabbz are weird, defends that he likes trains forming
#106 points out that Rowain makes a far reach with his voting pattern connection between Kaiser and Adrienier
#132 points to quite Lewwyn again
#140 Jabbz non vote despite talking about it is scummy (Jabbz corrects that later with a vote on Commodore)
#153 checks sunrise for his opinion on Gaspars Novice vote
#158 vote Omar for being Lazy (jumping on Gaspar train I assume). Lewwyn still lazy as well
#160 asks Lewwyn to commit himself
#162 asks Omar to explain why he stays on Gaspar
#164 explains his lewwyn comment from #160 to novice

3. medium participation, medium/high contribution
Gaspar:
9 posts, contribution is medium maximum but I follow his argument and share his opinion on thrawn trying to not be like WW47. The question is Why, very slight town lean and I hope to see more of his apparently famous tone reading

early Commodore vote
#44 switch to Meiz for being unusal RPing
#63 switch to novice for vote analysis
#72 defense (not paying attention to early vote totals and voting pattern so far), read on sunrise as silly not scummy
#180 defense for Meiz vote, read on novice becoming less scummy, commodore, GES and Lewwyn being scummy, vote on thrawn for being to different to WW47
#184 prefers his scumdar working, which it is not yet. Gives Lewwyn some slack as he thinks him scummy anyways, thrawn stays suspect #1
#185 GES is lazy but good RP, gets some slack
#191 justfies tone reading as a valid strategy towards bob. Based on WW46 experience
#199 detailed answer to sunrise089 questioning. Keeps vote on thrawn and explains why, explains he plays by gut

Cyneheard:
11 posts, 13 by now, there has barely been anything when I started this post. I am not convinced of what came afterwards as I do not know why he left thrawn to go on pindicator. I did not read the thread consecutively since #212 so my picture about the most recent posts might be out of context

early vote on thrwan
#17 weird RP?
#18 RP
#37 RP
#40 RP
#43 RP + Meta
#99 first read, stays on thrawn due to participation, Novice no read but can follow the early vote analysis argument, Gaspar is more aggro than normally but Mr. house
#102 pokes, WK, Thrawn, Bob, Alhambram, Lewwyn and Jabbz for 0 content
#118 RP
#128 forum etiquette post
#131 more forum etiquette
crosspost #246 the first actual meaningful information from Cyneheard, town lean on sunrise, pindicator is weird because he has no town lean on sunrise. Some easy to follow explanation for his thrawn vote. Points out that Gaspar and Lewwyn also operate outside of expected behaviour
#253 vote on pindicator for not contributing enough even when contributing with limited time. Gaspar might be a later lynch

GES:
7 posts, a pain to read and I cannot relate to the character so no special points for the RP performance from my side. It took me very long to make some sense of his posts and I am nor sure I actually managed always.

fluff post to start
#24 vote for Gaspar, I do not understand the reason, so I believe it is RP??
#62 what?
#155 keeps vote on Gaspar, sees Lewwyn suspicious as well and agrees with sunrise089s words. Will keep roleplaying (to my detriment, but others seem to enjoy it) Talks about a fairy tale with wolves?
#161 points commodore's posting behaviour out and is suspicious of him. Points out that Gaspar followed Commodore's vote on pindicator when Gaspar was vote leader. Also that Commodore is defending Gaspar, keeps vote on Gaspar
#166 is curious why Commodore did not understand his "kauderwelsch" before
#185 needs reorientation, might suspect novice? or gazglum? I seriously don't know who and why

Gazglum:
9 posts (11 after crossposts), started slow but picked up pace consistently, was originally in the low contribution column but has advanced to medium. Slight town read right now as I like his probing of GES and Gaspar, especially as he stated that he was neutral but remains inquisitive.

RP vote on Alhambram
technical difficulties
lives in Australia?
#83 reads, Gaspar no tell (plays Dr. House good), Sunrise and Novice have to few data, Commodore Cynehard and Meiz are engaging with a lot RP, Pindicator more please, likes that he draws out people? Omar great RP. No read on Kaiser, Jabbz, Lewwyn, thrawn, Warrior Knight, Bob, Adrienier, Rowain
#179 read on Gaspar as neutral but agrees to Sunrise089 question to Gaspar pointing out where he would have expected Meiz to step up his game. Calls out Omar for threatening people (which likely is RP) and wants to get reads on town leans
#182 points out ambivalence in Gaspar's reasoning, inquires about Gaspar following Lewwyn on a vote
#194 is not satisfied with Omar giving no town reads, points out that Gaspar is overly forgiving to Omar due to RP
#204 wants to understand what sunrise likes about GES posts
#210 vote tally pointing out a thrawn train
crosspost for more answers from pindicator

4. medium participation, low contribution
Lewwyn:
12 posts, I share commodore's feeling that he is not showing his usual level of engagement, definetively not the WW46 engagement. Out of 12 posts, 3 were immediately consecutive posts which others might put into one. He basically posted #117, #119+, #133++, #156+, #167+, #173+ totaling up to 6 times ramping him down to low participation. Contribution wise he is half-tunneling on thrawn for a valid but easy reason and had a short discussion with WK and Commodore

start vote Meiz
#117 positive read on Meiz, wants to hear from WK (vote) thinks RP helps wolves disguise and was waiting out early Day1
#119 points out that thrawn is inconsistent with his content
#120 wonders if Novice is RPing or wolfy? towny? unclear
#133 wants an answer from thrawn
#135 points out that he is not happy with thrawns participation so far (voting on Kaiser for RP reasons, low participation)
#156 defense to being called out as low profile this game
#157 dislikes no lynch from Alhambram, pokes him for a read (unsuccessfully)
#167 pushes commodore back for calling him out to rest on WK with no reason (I see his reason)
#168 pushes commodore back for the lazy argument mentioning that commodore has not been paying attention
#173 defense to WK mentioning that he wont post while sleeping. Points out that people will have to leave RP
#174 enforces his earlier push for thrawn with a vote, based on clearly holding back

AdrienIer:
7 posts, I keep mixing him up with Bob for unknown reasons. Not a lot going on but I follow his arguments around the Novice and Meiz topics, neutral read

Metagame vote
fluff
#71 read on novice playing in character and bringing day 1 along, announces vote change target unclear
#97 follows Kaiser on Jabbz vote within 10 minutes, states that discussions around Meiz and Novice seem far fetched
metagame feedback to WW46
#154 moves from jabbz to GES to get more content, which follows immediately. Dislikes the novice train and thinks there might be scum
funny reply

Jabbz:
10 posts, now 11 no real content and a very questionable stance on leaving a paper trail by placing a safe vote and then not engaging any more. This is a bad play on Day1 as he is not leaving any trail at all. he only votes the person with the highest amount of thrown out votes and make sure to not participate in a mislynch. Bing Bing Bing

2 fluff posts to start
#42 1 evasive fluffpost to Rowain's question
#110 dislikes early guesswork, votes Novice due to past history and because Novice was early to start throwing suspicions around
#112 he points out that he misunderstood Novice's voting partern and accused him wrongly due to lack of caffeine
#139 tries to move to Commodore for the same reason (liberal voting early) but does not do so. Short explanation regarding his misinterpreation of Novice
#142 explains his suspicion about liberal voting to Meiz, realizes the vot on Commodore
technical post to formatting
#165 is explaining to Commodore that he was lacking caffeine when making his posts, cites an exchange between Commodore and GES which has barely to do with him
#214 crosspost, explains his voting strategy and general loss at Day1, leaves his vote on Commodore because he is confident that it will not matter. Wants to leave a paper trail

Thrawn:
7 posts, now 9. Is definetively approaching this game very different than WW47, I am not sure why yet but am happy that he started participating with his last crosspost. I need to consider him more but he remains high on my suspicion list as I still do not understand why he acts so differently from WW47.

started with 3 RP posts including an early vote on Cyneheard.
Defense in #121 to Kaiser asking for his participation difference in regard to WW47.
Shifts his vote to Kaiser 1:30 hours later with RP reasons (might be referring to my play in WW47).
some fluff and game rule clarification
EDIT: crosspost read on a couple of people, Meiz and Sunrise town lean, Gaspar shows light and day, Kaiser behaving different than WW47. Generally wants to wait out some deaths so the game will be easier to follow, preferred the WW47 size

5. Low participation, medium contribution
Kaiser:
6 posts, confirmed town, mostly trying to start discussions with people regarding certain topics, nearly all posts have at least a question. Low on reads until this post due to a busy week.

Pindicator:
5 posts, ramped up his participation but is nowhere near WW47. I would like to see more from him, especially as he looks very evasive right now

1 early vote for Meiz
explanation for low participation early day 1
RP stuff (Skeletor blog)
his first read at #122, started with justifying himself and giving a read on Gaspar to then vote sunrise089 for justifying himself
#203 realizes he might be pulling the bob (fun fact about Bob and Belgium), has real life stuff going on. Town lean on Gaspar, sunrise suspicous and thrawn vote for difference in regard to WW47

6. Low participation, low contribution
Alhambram:
3 posts, 2 rp based votes and a no lynch, this is basically a no participation and he explains it with overtime and drinking out.
Which is a fine reason but no help for the village. Scum lean.
There is the promise of improvement on the weeken.

Warriorknight:
6 posts, 2 funny waldorf and statler remarks, then a push vote on Lewwyn, another joke, a read on some people in #170, another joke pointing his suspicion of Lewwyn out. I love the RP but there is only marginally more than from Alhambram, please participate more (jokes and contribution). There might have been crossposts but at the state of #212, scum lean.

Bob:
5 posts, not much going on here, might be pulling a Bob, but luckily for him Alhambram is around?

RP and early vote Lewwyn
says he was trying to start a bus on lewwyn
#178 dislikes tone checks in an RP game and thinks this is an unsuccessful strategy, thrawn still voting for Rp reasons on 2nd half of day 1 is scummy. Switches vote to Alhambram for no lynch
read in #187 on thrawn and Gaspar, keeps vote on Alhambram, might not be around later to switch
#189 explains Gaspar read based on his dislike mentioned in #178

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