WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Meiz]

Rowain, on which of my eod reads would you agree or disagree with?

novice + gaspar townish

Commodore,pindi good lynches for day 1.

Additional for Meiz:

While I have sunrise rather townish I don't see him as towny as you do. Cyneheard I agree with,  WK,Kaiser are neutral very slight town.

Jabbz, Adrien are on the bad side but Jabbz not as far as you see him.  Bob, Alhambram would be policy lynches. GES no clue what he is

You and Lewwyn I reserve judgement

Me being me with the exception of Gaspar and novice I could lynch anyone today since the way from being townish to scummish in my mind is a very short one.
Although a sunrise and cyneheard lynch would need some convincing.

Sounds like a plan to me. Commodore

[Gaspar]

On mobile so I won't be able to give anything other than snap insights, though not sure I do much other than that anyway.

Gaz dying but not flipping is weird but from the reveal we did get and the pregame setup im expecting a lot of weirdness. Odds are hes town bc that's what I read him as yesterday and all the other explanations are too WIFOM for my tastes.

I dont see anything that makes me think I'm wrong about Commodore. My entire scum read on pindicator is mostly based on thinking scum didnt know about thrawn and that Comm decided to try and save himself and pindicator.

Commodore

[Kaiser]

That is unhelpfull

It is, although with only one death I’d have a strong villager lean on dearly departed Gazglum.

It would be a very unlikely strategy, especially regarding the wolves already lost their traitor support. I already had a town lean on Gazlum before and I feel confirmed by this night kill.

I have a big question of "why Gazglum?".  He seemed to be on Gaspar and Gold Ergo Sum the most.  His last post of the day was a big attack on GES and that seemed to be the way he was headed next.  Against Gaspar he noted in #182 that Gaspar said he didn't like Lewwyn but then voted for the same person as Lewwyn's target (thrawn).  I'll add to that Gaspar later in the day then did not want to vote thrawn again.

He also notes in post #194 that Gaspar's play reminds him of WW36 when Gaspar was scum.  Attacks GES in that post too, saying he did not like either of their replies.

I fully agree, maybe it is part my fault on expressing a town lean on him making him a desirable target, but I believe the wolves must have had something else on him. Was he poking the wrong haystacks?
Another big question I have is why the wolves would use their power on Gazlum on Day1?
He did not yet have time to claim or use his power, so what is the purpose of hiding it?

Why Gazglum? well if he is town then perhaps because the wolves needed to find a target with little chance for protection or watchers.

But ther eis no garanty he is town. Maybe he had a sacrifice but power through any defense ability with delay like poison.  In WW26 scum had and used a sacrifice but kill the other surely skill

Maybe that was the reason for the pick, but it is an awfully easy explanation to point away from any of Gazlum's research.
I am not sure I follow your argument here Rowain:
- there is no warranty (am I misreading this word because it is close to the German word for warranty (Garantie)?) that he is town?
- He might have had a sacrifice power as wolf killing himself to ensure a later kill on somebody else

This does not seem to be very well thought through, as part of your above description was a subset of thrawns abilities and that would not fit with having only one night kill.

A bit time constrained first half of today, hence the night activity.

Is it too much to hope for that Gazglum is scum? He wasn't that convincing yesterday.

I still think the Commodore case is valid, but it's at day 1 strength.

Pindicator, you said earlier that you couldn't parse Commodore's roleplay? How is that even possible?

It is, as I see no other reasonable explanation for him being the only night death and I am surprised that there has been so few discussion on this so far. But I am looking forward to hearing your theory?

@Gazlum:
GG, I am sorry to see you part as I was hoping to solve this case together with you.

Sadly, still 2/3 of the field is on my suspicion list and I am not as convinced that all my neutral and town reads are correct. I promise you to remain the voyeuristic robot monitoring culture and and experiences of biological life and will use my observations to the benefit of the village in this intruiging werewolf game.

[Kaiser]

Btw. I remain having a busy weekend, I will likely only be able to invest some time and effort around 3 PM CEST on Sunday, so I will be quite for roughly the first 1/4 of day2.

[AdrienIer]

GES, the lurkers, then maybe WK. I'll try to reread Sunrise sometime to check.

IMO either Gazglum has a role that has something happen on his death (resurrection after a day ? Ability to send messages for some time but not vote ? something else ?) or the wolves have a player with a role that makes the dead person's alignement and role unknown (probably not available every night).

Why GES

I missed it in my first explanation but he was one of Gazglum's targets. As many people are pointing out he might very well have been killed for one of his targets.

[Bobchillingworth]

Augh!  I had a nightmare, Jerry, a nightmare!  I went to work yesterday, and when I came back I found that Kramer had invited a dozen Europeans over in the morning, and our apartment was full of people jabbering and carousing!  CAROUSING, Jerry!  And then I couldn't get a wink of sleep because they turned out kitchen into a disco and were up all night as well!  And it was a living nightmare, because it happened, and I wasn't sleeping, because of all the talking!  So I guess what I'm saying is that I'm a little out of sorts, and not really tracking on all the budding interpersonal relationships and drama unfolding over the last 48 or so hours in our kitchen, but I'm not giving up!  George isn't a quitter, Jerry!  Not me!  Even though I've quit all those other jobs!  Or was fired!  

Anyway, I was talking before about how the game is really afoot for the village when there's hard data to work off, and now we have some, even though it's abnormally strange and confusing!  It's madness, Jerry!  Role madness!  


George is going to break down Day 1's final vote Tally First:


Voting for Thrawn, we had:

* Lewwyn
* pindicator
* AdrienIer
* Commodore
* Rowain
* Kaiser
* sunrise089
* Q

That's a big bus, Jerry!  I think, however, that for tabulating purposes we can ignore the final two votes there; sunrise joined shortly before lynch when it was already a done deal (I think, unless he broke a tie!  I'm not certain on that part!) and Q was self-immolating as Qs are prone to do.  So we have:

* Lewwyn
* pindicator
* AdrienIer
* Commodore
* Rowain
* Kaiser
* sunrise089
* Q

Now, and this is important Jerry, Thrawn was a villain!   Or some kind of villain understudy.  UNFORTUNATELY, we don't know if the scum knew that Thrawn was on their side!  

If they didn't, then I'm not convinced any of the votes above were meaningful, even though Thrawn turned out to be a bad guy!  Thrawn was an easy lynch who annoyed people and didn't post much content!  ...What's with that grin, Jerry?  I'm making a point here!  That point being, I wouldn't give anyone voting for Thrawn much credit, other than having a good sense for when someone was behaving badly, if the scum didn't know his affiliation!

If they DID, however, then it gets interesting!  I bet the scum would see Traitor as even more valuable than someone directly affiliated with their team, in most circumstances!  Scum could reasonably assume a Traitor would pass alignment checks, and might have a second kill!  Sure, a traitor could inadvertently kill one of their scum buddies if they themselves read the game poorly, but why allow them to be lynched on Day 1 before they even have a chance to show their stuff?  I think the scum would have tried to keep Thrawn alive then, maybe even if it meant bussing one of themselves as the primary alternative lynch candidate.  Which is all to say that if the scum DID know that Thrawn was aligned with them, I think the first six votes on him should count for substantial village cred!:

* Lewwyn
* pindicator
* AdrienIer
* Commodore
* Rowain
* Kaiser
* sunrise089
* Q

UNFORTUNATELY, I don't think we're ever going to know what the scum knew in terms of Thrawn's affiliation!  But that doesn't mean voting for him is a null read- I'm still giving village credit to the first six voters!  Just not full credit!  Maybe a C+, like the grades I got in high school!  Participation trophies all around!  


Anyway, moving on, the next block of votes, and actually the ONLY other block of votes, was on pindicator:

* Meiz
* Cyneheard
* WarriorKnight
* Gazglum
* Gaspar
* novice


Now, Jerry, I personally don't have much of a read on pindicator as a player!  No, it's not because I've skimmed over or outright ignored most of his posts!  Absolutely not, Jerry!  George LOVES to spend the better half of his weekend reading 500 posts of interminable bickering!  That's what he signed up for!  

But going back to my earlier point, if the Scum knew that Thrawn was sort-of one of them, then I think the votes for Pin look pretty bad, especially those following Cyne and WK, who at least voted almost concurrently after Meiz made a (very brief) argument against him!  In that scenario, Gaz, Gaspar, and novice all look suspicious, and Gaz died!  He DIED, Jerry!  Unclear from what, maybe diabetes, or sadness!  We don't even know if he was actually village, although if he wasn't then that raises numerous spooky and unlikely probabilities!  So let's assume he most likely was!  

What I'm saying here is that if six of the Thrawn voters receive partial village credit, then Gaspar and novice have earned a portion of scum points!  They probably aren't both scum, because that would be really obvious bus driving, but it's likely one would be!  

So we'd have:

* Meiz
* Cyneheard
( WarriorKnight
* Gazglum
* Gaspar
* novice


HOWEVER, if the scum didn't know Thrawn's role, then it's all flipped on its head!  The world is going crazy, Jerry!  At that point there's no reason for them to try to save him, and conversely they might be trying to keep pindicator alive!  This case is bolstered some too by Gazglum having helped push the pin train!  He could have died for it, Jerry!  Which would instead give us:

* Meiz
* Cyneheard
* WarriorKnight
* Gazglum
* Gaspar
* novice


All in favor of lynching pindicator!  

Those aren't strong village leans though, Jerry, and even if pin was scum there was probably one scum vote in there, maybe from novice, when it was too late to matter!  That's right, Jerry, I'm voting for novice!  I think he (she??) looks worst in either the scenarios of the scum knowing or not knowing Thrawn's business!  


Aside from that, we have a collection of scattered one-offs:

* 1 vote: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz)
* 1 vote: Gaspar/Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum)
* 1 vote: Alhambram/Homer Simpson (Bobchillingworth)
* 1 vote: no lynch (Alhambram)

I think these are NULL READS, Jerry!  Safe votes for scum, but not wanting to join a Day 1 dogpile isn't exactly anti-village either!  

Though I still thinking voting "no lynch" was absolutely terrible.  It was a disgrace, Jerry!  George isn't going to stop banging that drum!  



What's that, Jerry?  I'm probably telling people what they already know?  George doesn't care, Jerry!  George is going to SHARE HIS THOUGHTS, which is what the people demand!  Plus these are Europeans, Jerry, who knows what they're thinking?!

[Commodore]

EEeerta, eeetickickitatata.
<I didn't think about how hard this would be translating on mobile, stupid lack of opposable thumbs.>

eeeker titickatatata eeee! EEEEEEEeeeeee wreeee eeer rrrrrrrEEEEE.
<First of all, good game Gazglum! You were a clear villager who got night-killed, enough so that I find people speculating otherwise to be suspicious.>

*chirup* reEEE ree IIII'eeka itititititaka eeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeee reer re EEKEE t'chi eeeeeEEEEE.
<GES still has done himself no favors since he VOTED ONCE IN THE JOKE VOTE STAGE A KEPT IT THERE THE ENTIRE REST OF THE DAY.>

RRRREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeEee ickick *chirp* (wreek kee kee) eeeeee ya'i eeeEEEE e-e *chirup-chee* ee?
<Could someone voting for me refrain from the mutual admiration backslapping (handsist, by the way) long enough to explain how me hanging today advances us whatsoever?>

[pindicator]

Easy, Comm. Because then tomorrow it makes it easier to lynch me.

[Commodore]

Easy, Comm. Because then tomorrow it makes it easier to lynch me.

eeeeee, eee reee.
<High five, scumbuddy.>

[pindicator]

Yep, we sure fooled them my dolphin fiend!