WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[pindicator]

Anyway, after re-reading Gaspar end of day 1 I can't see why he goes from saying Thrawn is trying too hard to not act like Thrawn in past games and using that as a basis to voting for him, and then later defending thrawn as flailing about but still putting him 3rd on his suspect list. Then later as the vote deadline gets closer he defends thrawn more with lines like in #371 - asking Lewwyn if he had considered that thrawn didn't know what he was doing.

But then #399 Gaspar said he was ready to vote for Thrawn until Commodore then voted for him. He gets visibly upset at people voting for Thrawn, with a headbang emoji against Rowain in 400 and his all caps raving in 409.

My theory: Gaspar thought he knew Thrawn was going to flip town because Gaspar knows who the scum are. He was defending someone he thought was going to look like a classic newbie mislynch and then gave us some theater in 400 and 409 to try and make him look better after what he thought was going to be a thrawn town flip. He kept changing his reasoning on not voting thrawn because he felt voting me would be easier to justify after my day 1 performance, and waves away the early reads he gave on thrawn in posts 180 and 199 where he said thrawn was "trying too hard not to be like thrawn in WW47". Then in his next post, #279, he says thrawn feels earnest with no reasoning as to why that changed for him.

[Gaspar]

Anyway, after re-reading Gaspar end of day 1 I can't see why he goes from saying Thrawn is trying too hard to not act like Thrawn in past games and using that as a basis to voting for him, and then later defending thrawn as flailing about but still putting him 3rd on his suspect list.  Then later as the vote deadline gets closer he defends thrawn more with lines like in #371 - asking Lewwyn if he had considered that thrawn didn't know what he was doing.

But then #399 Gaspar said he was ready to vote for Thrawn until Commodore then voted for him.  He gets visibly upset at people voting for Thrawn, with a headbang emoji against Rowain in 400 and his all caps raving in 409.

My theory:  Gaspar thought he knew Thrawn was going to flip town because Gaspar knows who the scum are.  He was defending someone he thought was going to look like a classic newbie mislynch and then gave us some theater in 400 and 409 to try and make him look better after what he thought was going to be a thrawn town flip.  He kept changing his reasoning on not voting thrawn because he felt voting me would be easier to justify after my day 1 performance, and waves away the early reads he gave on thrawn in posts 180 and 199 where he said thrawn was "trying too hard not to be like thrawn in WW47".  Then in his next post, #279, he says thrawn feels earnest with no reasoning as to why that changed for him.

All along I thought Thrawn was trying too hard after criticism in 46. I wasn't clearing him by any means but that was my read. After seeing Lewwyn go so hard at him, I asked him to convince me. He sort of had convinced me but immediately thereafter Comm jumped in and voted for Thrawn rather than you and it freaked my scumdar and once that happened I really wanted to stay on Commodore. But once that became untenable, I decided I wanted to be on you because I assumed Comm wanted to save both of you.

Also, if I'm scum and your town and I don't know Thrawn is a traitor, why wouldn't I be just as happy to see either of you flip? For that matter, why get involved in the end of day theatrics at all?

Or, y'know, alternately, I read Commodore as scum and I read him as protecting you so that's where I wanted the lynch to go. *shrug*

[pindicator]

Also, if I'm scum and your town and I don't know Thrawn is a traitor, why wouldn't I be just as happy to see either of you flip?  For that matter, why get involved in the end of day theatrics at all?

This is actually the other theory I wanted to explore for the end of yesterday...

If I'm right in my Commodore-as-town read, then that's exactly what scum would do: sit back and watch. Which makes me want to vote GES again

[Gaspar]

And for new readers - why is Commodore scum?

Why couldn’t town Commodore vote for Thrawn if he thought Thrawn was the likeliest scum? Thrawn wasn’t unlynchable.

Better question, why is Commodore town? He's spammed the thread full of three line garbage, classic low-effort, high-volume scum. His day 1 consisted of sitting on me until he had no choice but to move because... I questioned you? That's a hell of a lot of faith in novice towniness for the first 100 posts or whenever it was. I don't even know if that was his actually reasoning it was so forgettable and poorly explained. I can live with parking if you're Alhambram and you check into the thread once a month but Commodore jumped in enough times to contribute something. We've gotten like 5 separate posts on what GES means by bee-boy. I mean... if that's all it takes to be town I can go back to calling everyone idiots and chewing vicodin tic-tacs, its equally productive and way more entertaining.

The end of day vote for Thrawn I guess requires Commodore to be better at reading the room than I give him credit for. At the time he popped in for his self-preservation vote and pulled himself away from the fake reread, Pindicator was the lead target. If he jumps on pin at that point, I'd bet dollars to donuts that pindicator hangs. If he waited 5 more minutes I might have talked pindicator and Lewwyn into voting for Commodore and Comm hangs. So he had to jump in when he did. But picking Thrawn you have to bank on Lewwyn's hammer working, which the scooter episode on Day 2 in 46 tells you is no sure thing, and you have to bank on a lot of people who weren't around in the last 2 hours before the lynch coming out of the woodwork to move the vote to Thrawn. Its a lot of moving pieces and the only reason I can imagine doing it if I think Commodore is scum is if he also wants to save Pindicator.

Now, my read on pindicator is a lot less secure. He spent day one fucking off doing nothing, fair play if that's due to RL issues but that's not relevant to the game here, I don't want to lynch him IRL. I particularly hate pity plays and he was drowning in an ocean of it at the end of the day, and mostly what I saw at the end of day was anger, not scum-hunting, which is natural given his position on the leaderboard but also a null tell towards alignment because both sides get angry when they're about to be lynched. He's been a lot more productive today, of course. But I mean, what's he really done beyond throw shade at those who suspect him. That's a pretty easy summon, too.

If I hate to rate the conviction of those two reads, it would be I'm 90% on Commodore and like 55% on Pindicator.

[Gaspar]

Also, last post before I hit the hay but I don't think Kaiser is a bad tree to shake. He gave me Roland vibes last game and he gives me Roland vibes this game. Super dense posts that people skim are a great place to hide. Not saying I think we should lynch him, but I hate when we clear people because their Wall of Text game is on point. That just means you got time, doesn't tell us anything about alignment.

[sunrise089]

Guys I’m sorry to do this, I have ten bullets of stuff to discuss and need to read the last half dozen pages or so here, but my daughter’s beloved sheep may be dying of a sudden neurological illness (there’s also a hopeful possibility of an acute vitamin deficiency) and we’ve decided to drive her to the large animal hospital a few hours away. I can’t imagine this will impact my availability leading up to the voting deadline, but it will absolutely destroy my ability to dig into the game in the latenight window as I’ve been doing. 

I know this is a non-game excuse so I won’t blame anyone for being on guard, but I didn’t want to disappear for half a day without saying anything.

[Bobchillingworth]

Take your time, sunrise; RL always takes precedence over dumb WW games.

[Rowain]

Rowain, on which of my eod reads would you agree or disagree with?

novice + gaspar townish

Commodore,pindi good lynches for day 1.

What makes them good lynches old timer? As an old man my eyes aren't what they used to be, so if you could paraphrase your argument that would be most appreciated.

Look I posted that during the night

The lynch should have helped us clear some suspicions /alignements Q rolling as traitor makes that a lot harder especially as we don't know if the wolves knew about him or not.

1) Case pindi is scum:
1.a the wolves didn't know about Q: That makes those voting and pushing for Q look bad at first glance but there were enough votes and enough anti-towntells that he had a lot of villagers on him.
1.b the wolves did know about Q: that makes those that pushed for Commodore look scummy if Comm is town.

2) Case pindi is town:
2.a. The wolves didn't know about Q: The wolves had a very relaxing day and could easy move their votes around especially if Comm is villager. If Comm is scum those pushing him up to 4 votes are rather towny
2.b. The wolves did know about Q: Those pushing for a not-Q-lynch especially those pushing the pindi-waggon hard do look scummy.

Course of action: Lynch pindicator, lynch Commodore.

During the end of the day we had 3 main-pushers: Lewwyn for the Q-lynch, Meiz for the pindi-lynch and Gaspar for the Commodore-lynch to keep in mind if one of those die tonight

[Rowain]

I appreciate the summary of late-breaking events from yesterday, but agrees with the cartoon fox(?) that lynching Commodore purely to collect intelligence is a strange and not particularly pro-village conclusion.  Very suspicious, Jerry!  Also the data revealed sounds kinda small-potatoes.  Personally, George would suggest that of the dozen or so village roles out there, one is probably a vigilante, and ought to consider shooting Commodore instead, if the resulting information would be so vital.  As noted, I'm not convinced that it's worth it either, but at least it makes more sense that basing the lynch on it!  

Also, why are you assuming that the scum weren't aware of Q's role / alignment?  Your "Commodore and Pin may both be scum" theory seems to take that for granted!  

The argument against Kaiser is weak too, to be brutally honest.  Well, not brutal.  George isn't a brute!  I won't stand for it, Jerry!  I WON'T!  But seriously, your argument is that Kaiser voted for Q twice because he was confused by the existence of two subforums?  What?  I think you may be getting senile yourself in your old age- not that there's anything wrong with that!

Bob you were playing lurking WW46 so you know that me going for clarification lynches is nothing strange. Lynching someone is far better for the village than a vig shooting one because the it gives us info about the voters the vig-shot gives us nothing. And perhaps you can read my nightpost were I hoped I made it clear that I think both the scum knowing or the scum not knowing about Q is possible.

Interesting that you find my attack on Kaiser important enough to not only comment on it but to also go to personal attacks.


@sunrise All the best for your daughters sheep.

[Meiz]

GES, the lurkers, then maybe WK. I'll try to reread Sunrise sometime to check.

IMO either Gazglum has a role that has something happen on his death (resurrection after a day ? Ability to send messages for some time but not vote ? something else ?) or the wolves have a player with a role that makes the dead person's alignement and role unknown (probably not available every night).

Why Gazglum? well if he is town then perhaps because the wolves needed to find a target with little chance for protection or watchers.

But ther eis no garanty he is town. Maybe he had a sacrifice but power through any defense ability with delay like poison.  In WW26 scum had and used a sacrifice but kill the other surely skill

Small town lean for these two posts, as they indicate players not having full info on what happened N1, thus making a bit wild theories on other potential explanations than "wolves killed Gaz".

I don't think Rowain's focus on flipping Com & Pind just for more info is bad sign in itself. In fact I think this type of read is something that wolves tend to avoid, since it's so cold and calculated and therefore will draw attention. Still I don't mind Rowain expanding more on what in their plays makes them suspicious. It helps to get a read on Rowain, and can also convince others if the points are good.

I also like Alhambram's posts today, feels helpful. I also liked WarriorKnights post https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753405 as he seems to be on a same page with my thougts.

I fully agree, maybe it is part my fault on expressing a town lean on him making him a desirable target, but I believe the wolves must have had something else on him. Was he poking the wrong haystacks?
Another big question I have is why the wolves would use their power on Gazlum on Day1?
He did not yet have time to claim or use his power, so what is the purpose of hiding it?

I would say just the fact that Gazglum's alignment was hidden helps non-town players, so not sure if there's much relevance in hiding Gaz's role (though it still helps of course).

And for new readers - why is Commodore scum?

Why couldn’t town Commodore vote for Thrawn if he thought Thrawn was the likeliest scum? Thrawn wasn’t unlynchable.

That thought bothered me as well. I'm not seeing how it's anti-town to worry more about catching a wolf than preserving yourself. I'm not saying it clears him by any means, but there seems to be a great deal of early focus on commodore, and it confuses me. Still, its cool to keep looking, as long as we don't fixate on him to the exclusion of continued hunting.

My problem is Com's posts show no sign of why he'd vote Pind or thrawn in the end. What could you attribute from his d1 posts to trying to catch scum Pindicator or thrawn? I get that town is in self-preservation mode as well, but last game his train of thought were much clearer to follow, and this game he is holding back the info. RP limiting his posting doesn't explain it to me since he was not posting walls of text last game either. So yes, town-Commodore would be voting like he did EOD, but rest of his play (lack of effort) screams scum to me.
Or as Gaspar put it, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753441

I like novice's attempt here:

By the way. I forget who’s said it, but I don’t see either why this day is so obviously about Commodore and Pindicator. Even if they’re both scum there’s at least one more out there.

Commodore and Pindicator, instead of high fiving each other, why don’t you help us expand our horizons?

Commodore refusing confirms my current vote on him, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753403


I also like novice's prodding of GES to give more up to date reads. The "I will reread and get back to this" is a classic scum play, and I'm pretty sure a tactic GES used in his previous scum game(?). GES, focus on giving more instant reads as well so we can read you better.

And I like novice's post for Pind:

Pindicator, you said earlier that you couldn't parse Commodore's roleplay? How is that even possible?

This is a good accusation, because everything Commodore has posted is in clear text after the dolphin.

Speaking of Pindicator, the build up to accuse Gaspar (which started on night 1 aready) reads fake to me. Small bits of starting to suspect him before actually rereading his posts. Doesn't seem like natural way to play for town, and I think a contrast of his more sure reads from his last town game. I think he is faking an unsure feeling, while as town I think he would go through Gaspar's posts, see if there's merits to suspect him and then post his clear read on him.

Otherwise, the strong preference to avoid lynching Commodore enhances the feeling I have that they are together. *High fives* (Oh.. I wasn't invited...   )

I have a big question of "why Gazglum?".  He seemed to be on Gaspar and Gold Ergo Sum the most.  His last post of the day was a big attack on GES and that seemed to be the way he was headed next.  Against Gaspar he noted in #182 that Gaspar said he didn't like Lewwyn but then voted for the same person as Lewwyn's target (thrawn).  I'll add to that Gaspar later in the day then did not want to vote thrawn again.

He also notes in post #194 that Gaspar's play reminds him of WW36 when Gaspar was scum.  Attacks GES in that post too, saying he did not like either of their replies.

I like Alhamra's take on potential scenario:

I also did wonder why Gazglum, he came across me as neutral. Maybe that is why wolves decided to strike him with power to hide his role/alingement.
I kinda expected that wolves would pick likes as Meiz or Lewwyn due constant scum hunting, but there is also risk of them being protected.
Instead hitting high profile player whose death might lead to somewhere or low profile who can be used as mislynch, wolves probably chose a bland player which results in little information as possible for town

I don't mind giving a thought on this but I also wouldn't draw strong conclusions on a kill we cannot know for sure who did it, and it wouldn't be the first time scum try to direct town in a certain way with the NK. My suggestion is to not at least fixate on the night kill, but instead focus on what players are doing today.

I think that exchange may have won my heart.

You are easily fooled my friend?