WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Rowain]

My issue is with your plan to lynch two in a row regardless of how the first flips.

And that is exactly wrong.

If we lynch C and he turns out as scum it would warrant a very close look on pindicator. If C turns out as town we can look at others as that would be a null-tell on pindi and we can look and see how pindi plays today.

You see depending how Comm flips we look at pindi. That was my clarification that was my post directly above yours (and according to the timestamps posted 15 minutes before your post).

[Meiz]

And quoted by Jabbz.

[novice]

Stopping by to semi-randomly say that I really like what I've seen from Gaspar today. He's pushing all my townie buttons - slightly disconcertingly as he's usually pretty mislynchable as town. I won't hold that against him, though.

Also, Bob is voting for me and not Homer. And I really hoped that he would use his day one free pass for something more impressive than that one vote analysis post where he voted for me.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

So, first, Omar tell a tale.  Last night, he hanging out with his partner and the rest of his crew.  Omar's partner completely green at this here game.  Omar tried to educate his partner.  School the pup.  Here was Omar's partner's take-away, "He been holed up in his room all day taking handwritten notes about a monster video game.  He has to read a bunch of stuff and then figure out if he is a villager or a werewolf.  How did I ever end up with such a nerd."  Omar not sure where to start on that one.

At this point, Omar finished with his D1 review, but read next to nothing on D2 yet.  Will catch up D2 after doing some 9-5 business.  

Known Knowns:
1) Omar village.
2) Omar 3-shot Tracker
3) Q scum-adjacent
4) Queen dead
5) CIA targeted no one N1

Known Unknowns:
1) Did villains know Q's role?
2) Did Queen have a role?

Why Queen dead?

So Omar's immediate reaction to Q's role-read was assuming villains did not know Q's role.  But others pointed out from past games they could have known.  So that got Omar thinking--if they knew, who would be more likely to be a villain? 

Omar makes a few assumptions at this point.  One, Robot estimated four villains and a traitor roughly.  Sounds about square.  Two, if villains knew Q was a snitch, they wouldn't let him go down easily--poison too valuable and only needs to survive one night to use it at good odds.  Three, the chances that out of 18 players, Bee-Boy, Flip and Q all one of the 5/18 villains seems unlikely.  That means if villains knew, there should have been a safe place to park votes.  Four, Queen gotta be town.  Just doesn't make sense for her not to be.

So if villains knew Q's role, who would that reflect most poorly on?  CIA girl.  Omar initially didn't think much of that late Bee-Boy vote.  But if CIA had not seen Talking Dog's late vote or Q's self-immolation, that Bee-Boy vote could have been an attempt to save the known snitch.  It was quickly played off as an obvious cross-post.  All those votes came in the last two minutes, and could have come within seconds of each other.

So Omar decided to track CIA girl N1.  CIA generally a strong player, so good info either way.  CIA girl targeted no one.  This seemed out of character because that crazy white lady always have a target, but RP aside, the lack of a target suggests CIA not a villain.  

Omar see the odds like this:

Likely other players 11/15 = village at this point   73.3%

Likely then 25% for a villain to have targeted Queen.  CIA not the night killer.

Some villain probably targeted Queen to remove her role.  Could be the same as the killer.  But perhaps not.  Thus villain slightly more likely to have targeted N1.  CIA did not target anyone.

Villains know who a villager and who is a villain, thus way more likely to use a power N1 in Omar's opinion.  CIA did not use a power N1.  

All that suggests CIA 85-90% to be village.  Omar got a general village vibe anyway.  Helped get the game moving etc.

Additionally, CIA placed a vote on Flip in D1 when Q already had around six votes I think based on my notes.  Skelly called him out for it, saying it was a null vote.  This was at a time the Q train was starting to form, which Queen pointed out was taking pressure off the top vote getters at the time.  If CIA was a villain who knew Q was a snitch, why throw away a vote on Flip when Doc, Weeb Fox and Omar and a couple others had better chances of being lynched?  

So Omar thinking CIA is village and villains did not know Q was a snitch.  

Why kill Queen?  This seemed like an odd one to Omar.  Omar assume villains want to kill someone with no threat of being lynched (yup) but that provided little concrete thoughts (nope).  So Omar figured the lynch would be Jabbz, Simpson, or Jerry!, since they were the lowest information voters, with the least expressed opinions and no threat of being lynched.  

Best guess on Queen kill then?  Trying to frame Omar.  Omar also fits the low information paradigm, but drew plenty of shade.  So villains kill Queen, who had no suspicion, and maybe engineer a village lynch of a low information Omar based on her suspicions of him.  Win. Win.  

Admittedly, Omar be Omar focused here, but as a first time village, I keep coming back to the basic Known Knowns, the first of which was, Omar a villager.  Omar also busy in RL, so play going to be similar to prior villain play, and thus likely to draw shade.  Easy target.

Since Omar think villains not know Q's role, that means probably 2-3 villains in that mix.  After D1 review, these under the radar Q names seem most suspicious to Omar:

1) Swanson--First post of the game, but little content after.  Quickly tunnels on Omar, but disappears for a long time.  Returns with low content post.  Says he sympathizes with Q.  Changes vote to Bee-Boy, but says would rather lynch Omar or WK with no analysis.  Ends up voting for Q anyway.

2) Old Tea Man--Plants the seeds early for the way Omar played the game as a villain matching current play.  Made first non-joke vote on Q.  Points out Jabbz is "scummy as it can get" and calls out Simpson too, but leaves vote on Q.  As two quick votes come on Flip, moves vote there.  Moves back to Q with four minutes left, likely sealing his fate.

3) Robot--Questions Skelly, votes CIA.  Next post suspicious of Q, picking up Old Man's train of thought, but doesn't vote Q.  Posts Cliff Notes post, which notes only three likely villagers and ten (!) likely villains, despite earlier saying he expected 66-78% of the players to be village.  Has two straight posts saying he has reduced suspicion on Q at 286/288, but then is the next vote for Q.  Unnecessarily reiterates vote with three minutes left.

Couple of notes--after Robot's Cliff Notes, Swanson says he likes Queen and Robot.  If villains already thinking of a Queen kill, this could be to provide early cover for himself.

Just after Robot reluctantly votes Q despite recent posts saying he is less suspicious, Swanson moves to Bee-boy reluctantly in the next post, even though he will move back to Q eventually.  

Old Tea Man also noticed early on in D1 that Robot and Swanson moved from CIA girl to Jabbz together, one of which was the same post that Robot began questioning Q.

If Omar a betting man, he thinking maybe Swanson and Robot making weird plays trying to keep Bee-Boy or Flip alive.  Not sure though.  WAY more suspicious of Swanson and Robot than Old Tea Man.  Still no clue if one or both of Bee-Boy and Flip a villain.  Seems unlikely to be both.  Simple odds say more likely neither a villain than both.  Not sure Flip or Bee-Boy have to be villains to make it worth following Weeb Fox onto a new target.  Lots of people on that train, so there is some cover.  And if Weeb Fox is wrong, he is a primary lynch target anyway.  Plus Weeb Fox a strong player and thus easy to justify following.

Still not sold Doc is village.  At one point around post 116, he was in the lead with four votes, and the first person who drew any real valid suspicion, and it was from Talking Dog and CIA, who are strong players and likely villagers.  This is when Weeb Fox awakens from his slumber and Q really started to go from 2 to 6.  Weeb Fox says a few times he thinks Doc is village while leading the Q lynch mob.

Omar not sure on Weeb Fox after D1 review.  He point out unless Flip and Bee-Boy both villains, his move on Q would be dumb, and he's too smart for that.  Good logic there to Omar.  But Weeb Fox a real savvy player--the smart play might be to make a play that no one would buy because its dumb.  Less likely he a villain and makes that play, though, just because odds unlikely both Bee-Boy and Flip are villains.

Omar thinking Cyneheard is villager.  Made an early joke vote on Q, but moved off when he saw the train forming, just because that seemed odd to him.  Voted Bee-Boy in the end.  D1 review felt coherent and sensible.

Talking Dog made the last vote on Q, but that feels more like an honest attempt for a villager to get off a null vote on Weeb Fox and show his opinion, especially considering Omar's general village read on Talking Dog.

Omar still not even read D2 yet and he spent.  Will vote after catching up and seeing who a target.  That probably be in 8-10 hours.

[Bobchillingworth]

Bob you were playing lurking WW46 so you know that me going for clarification lynches is nothing strange. Lynching someone is far better for the village than a vig shooting one because the it gives us info about the voters the vig-shot gives us nothing. And perhaps you can read my nightpost were I hoped I made it clear that I think both the scum knowing or the scum not knowing about Q is possible.

Interesting that you find my attack on Kaiser important enough to not only comment on it but to also go to personal attacks.

What? What is this guy saying, Jerry? I'm not following! Isn't the reason you want to "clarification lynch" Commodore is to gain color into the behavior of people on D1, based on what his alignment turns up as? Wouldn't a vig kill do exactly the same thing? Wouldn't lynching anyone give us information about voter intentions- you could make that case for anyone being up on the block, as long as it wasn't an unanimous lynch! Argh! George is getting cranky here, Jerry!

And I'll be clear, I don't care one way or another if Commodore is lynched; his roleplay posts are difficult to read and may be scum cover! I'm clearly not the only one who thinks that way either! ... Why are you grinning again, Jerry? I am NOT a hypocrite! You could argue that bold, declarative statements and constant yelling are the primary natural means of communication! Even apes do it Jerry, APES! I'm a man of instincts!

[Commodore]

Ia'ia yeee zirrr reeer re:
<I find it helpful to look at active cases:>

Tally as of post 673:

Lynch votes
5 votes: Commodore/Flipper  (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, WarriorKnight, Cyneheard)
4 votes: Gold Ergo Sum/Omar Little (AdrienIer, Commodore, Lewwyn, pindicator)
2 votes: Kaiser/Isaac (Rowain, novice)
1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser)
1 votes: Alhambram/Homer Simpson (Bobchillingworth)

e, eeeeeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeeeee yiiir eer reer.
e ee, reeer kitakakakakakakata *chirp* ree yi eeeeeEEEEEEEEEeee reer.
ree, eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeekitickaticka *chirup* chi reeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeee eereee.
e ree, tickatakatakatakatakatakatakatakatakatakatakatakatakatakatakatakata eeeeer EEEEEEEEEEEEEEE e'ree.
*chirp* chi reer.
<First, the onesies: Bob is on Alhambram Novice for the slightly dim reason of looking at Novice's late vote on Pin, I guess assuming that scum knew about Thrawn's traitorhood? Hey lookit, a weaker case than the Day 1 initial cases on me somehow. I believe Bob when he says he's busy, but this is weak. Kaiser seems to be on Rowain for having some fairly convoluted reasons to dismiss Gazglum's thoughts, which, well, fairly convoluted is typically Rowain scum or town. Rowain responded after a long while, so I imagine that will shift when Kaiser returns.

Second, Rowain and Novice, while spending the bulk of their time on me and Pindicator, are still parked on Kaiser for his weird double-vote on Thrawn at day's end. Either the good robot was pressed for time and forgot, or the bad robot was pressed for time and forgot, or the bad robot was lazy because he was scum and happy to kill a presumed villager. I find "pressed for time and forgot" to be the likely answer to the weird filip, although it's not a town-or-scum indicator. Novice and Rowain both have indicated that they are flipping back to me if they can avoid the heat at the day's end.

Third, looking at GES. Waiting on his megapost, I don't see anything much to add to the Day 1 case so elegantly articulated by Gazglum. I'd try to parse his Day 2...but as of yet, there is none. PLEASE NOTE THIS IS A NULL TELL, SCUM AND TOWN CAN BOTH BE BUSY. 

Finally, we have all these names on me, plus Novice and Rowain. Given that's 7/15, I really can't say that everyone on me is scum, sadly. What this does mean is that scum who lynch me have great cover...which would be the town reason for Novice and Rowain to not be officially voting me yet. Unfortunately, the case for me at present is being sold as a metacase, "lynch for information" that gives two lynches for the price of one. We can afford a mislynch or two so I'm fine with biting it if it helps the village, but I am *not* so confident in Pindicator that I'm happy covering him.

So I guess I need to do individual reads and gives leans while I have the time here. I'll be freer during the interminable meetings tomorrow morning but that's a late in the day. >

[Bobchillingworth]

Stopping by to semi-randomly say that I really like what I've seen from Gaspar today. He's pushing all my townie buttons - slightly disconcertingly as he's usually pretty mislynchable as town. I won't hold that against him, though.

Also, Bob is voting for me and not Homer. And I really hoped that he would use his day one free pass for something more impressive than that one vote analysis post where he voted for me.

Apologies for stumbling across your path as you glide through the game on the back of your reputation; I'm sure you'll be fine.

[Jabbz]

My issue is with your plan to lynch two in a row regardless of how the first flips.

And that is exactly wrong.

If we lynch C and he turns out as scum it would warrant a very close look on pindicator. If C turns out as town we can look at others as that would be a null-tell on pindi and we can look and see how pindi plays today.

You see depending how Comm flips we look at pindi. That was my clarification that was my post directly above yours (and according to the timestamps posted 15 minutes before your post).

I'll concede I misread that. That does address my concern in this post.

I think it's also important to clarify a misconception you have here. I am not saying it's a bad vote. I haven't been able to read through everything again at this point. My issue is with your plan to lynch two in a row regardless of how the first flips.

I still don't find your argument about why Commo is scummy to be all that persuasive, and the rest of my issues in that post still stand.

[Meiz]

I'm half ready to vote Meiz even though he doesn't fit that theory I put out earlier, but I'm only through day 1 and want to finish.  Just some questions for Meiz for now:

What is your response to my previous post about Commodore?  In addition, what made you first suspect Commodore / when did he first come on your radar?
What prompted your day 1 suspicion against me?
What made you stop suspecting thrawn?  You were an early voter on him but then refused to even engage with Lewwyn about him towards the end of the day.  You don't even mention Thrawn, you just talk about me and Commodore.
Have I upset you, Skeletor?

You should find answers to some of your questions from my post just before the start of Day 2, as they are up to date reads for who I find suspicious, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753255
Including a read on GES which you asked earlier.

I usually get reads on how actively/genuinely people are interested to hunt scum at the second half of the day. Before that it's hard to get a read on this, because there's not enough material in the game. If I start to sense a lack of it, I start to get suspicious. So I don't recall any specific post from either of you that would make me say prompted the suspicion, as the suspicionis based on lack of contributions.

For thrawn, I had earlier stated a preference to see you & Commodore as the two lynch candidates. Lewwyn had been quiet the majority of D1, so when he appeared to accuse and vote thrawn, while not commenting the other lynch candidates, it did cause alarm bells to go on. A player whose alignment I was very unsure of started to push a new candidate next to the ones I preferred. Therefore I was more interested in seeing if my lynch preferences would reveal as scum, as it could also implicate Lewwyn's alignment later.

Is you last question somehow game related?

[Commodore]

eeee *chirup*-chee. eeeeee keeer reeeeeEEEEeee. ticker *chirp* reeeeEEE e'eee.
<Crosspost with GES. Looks like Novice can test one claim there, although that assumes Novice wants to. Tracker is a more-town role but in a role madness game it isn't a sure thing.>