WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Alhambram]

GES thanks for your post, altough I had reread your post three times, you writing style is but hard for me to follow.
You comes forward with 3 shot tracker claim and used it on Novice which revealed no action that night and Novice confirmed your action.
Which can mean either it was townie with passive power which don't activate at night or with certain conditions or a villain who didn't perform kill.
Your day 1 analysis is interesting but speculating don't help much now because there is too little information which brings me to next point:


AdrienIer, I argee with you that no one is distinctly scummy right now, a unfortunate result of lynch turned out be traitor and nightkill without aligement/role.
My vote at Commodore still stands for now, but it isn't solid. I am willing to switch vote if someone starts looking more scummy or if someone else makes good point about that person.
But if at deadline nobody still stand out, then no choice but to lynch for more information. I like hear about Commodore more and he promised reads at post 688.

Rowain and Novice are currently pressing upon Kaiser and Kaiser has promised to respond, I also like to hear what he has to say about. Why do I have feeling that it is going be another long post again?

[Commodore]

Players: (16 alive)

• Allanon alias Jabbz
  
• Carrie Mathison alias novice
  
• Elim Garak alias Cyneheard
  
• Flipper alias Commodore
  
• George Costanza alias Bobchillingworth
  
• Gregory House alias House alias Gaspar
  
• Henchman 21 alias Gary alias pindicator
  
• Homer Simpson alias Homer alias Alhambram
  
• Isaac alias Kaiser
  
• Mr. PeanutButter alias sunrise089
  
• Omar Little  alias Gold Ergo Sum
  
• Patsy Stone  alias Gazglum
  
• Q alias thrawn
  
• Retsuko alias Lewwyn
  
• Ron Swanson alias AdrienIer
  
• Skeletor alias Meiz
  
• Statler & Waldorf alias WarriorKnight
  
• Uncle Iroh alias Rowain
  

EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE*hypersonic sounds*EEEEEeeee:
<I have little swimmers around, but I'll try to give such reads as I've read:
Jabbz: If I can put aside my annoyance at his vote-due-to-mistake being what led the Day 1, he seems overwhelmed by volume of posting. He's independent-minded when it would be easy to land on me and hide for an easy mislynch, so that's good. Slight town lean.

Novice: Bog Standard Novice. Bob's barb about "floating by on his shark-scars" is well taken, and so it's a fairly null read. His lazy day spent poking at me while sitting on Kaiser without making a case seems unusually tunnely. Mild scum lean. 

Cyneheard: Has been skating by completely after a decently active first 24 hours. Null read because he's been very quiet.

Commodore: Cheerful friend to all humanity unfairly targeted by numerous harpoons.

Bob: Skimming the thread, yelling in roleplay, snap off a vote, disappear. Has received The Pass from Novice, which apparently grants him immunity to all examination. Null read sans actual pressure. Has he been voted for at all?

Gaspar: While I still don't like his early Novice interaction, a scum would not be that determined to mislynch me as the primary driver. He has been sitting on me and ignoring all else for the bulk of this day, which sucks, but from 46 I had one day that was absolutely needed (Scooter) and one day that was eventually wrong (Rowain). At least he and Meiz get honesty points compared to Novice and Rowain. Town lean.

Pindicator: A laid-back Day 1 leading to him being on the chopping block has meant his Day 2 is very...focused. Despite that, his rereads sound like someone genuinely looking to hunt scum despite everyone in the game again telling him "we'll probably lynch you in the morning". Town lean.

Alhambram: Lurking scum or lurking town? I have no idea, and neither does he.

Kaiser: So I just dismissed the case against him as a placeholder while Rowain and Novice either fish for scum or scum for fish, but rereading his listicle I don't get a great feeling. He's also been posting light, but he promises to have more this afternoon, irrc. Slight scum lean pending more input.

Sunrise: Had a very active Day 1 and now very light Day 2. Day 1 was engaged and seemed to be looking for scum very sincerely though, so he gets a Novice Hall Pass(tm) from me today. Town lean.

Gold Ergo Sum: Well, he's not lazy. I've swum through enough thick clouds of squid ink to recognize the ping of one by this point, but barring Novice coming back and contradicting him, I'm willing to let him float for now. Still a scum lean.

Lewwyn: Boy I don't like his Day 1. Came awake very late in the day, and he's been cagey today, probably saving up for another flurry near deadline again. His strong "maybe the scum knew about thrawn" push right after thrawn got flipped was scummy as hell. On the plus side, he does seem to be rejecting Rowain, Meiz, and Novice's Grand Scheme to Lynch The Next Two Days, so if that's sincere, that's pro-town. Mixed, shading to scum.

AdrienInr: Not highly active, but neither was he in WW46. Honestly, to me he seems exactly the same as in 46, where he got mislynched for Scooter having more free time. Slight town lean.

Meiz: Does it echo down there in your tunnel, Meiz? Don't you see how slick it is with scum? Hammer right away, you have enough town with you to probably escape blame with your metacase. Great scum or town being used.

Warrior Knight: I have a problem with WK. 
A problem?
Yeah, he's just making rare posts with fun roleplay and not much effort to hunt.
Why is that a problem? 
I hate mirrors!
Null read, now. Hopefully he can clear himself by offering some broad takes when he wakes up here soon.

Rowain: Not only is he doing to same two-faced dance as Novice, he's going hyper-aggro on anyone who points it out. Rowain looks like scum who wants to push the mislynch of me and then Pindicator without leaving fingerprints if he can help it, making his metacase while sitting safely on a lurker. SCUM.>

[Commodore]

Thanks for your summary on active cases, Commodore. I’m not sure where I’ve indicated that I will flip to you at end of day, but it’s a fair assumption.

The really important part of course, which I eagerly await, is this:

So I guess I need to do individual reads and gives leans while I have the time here. I'll be freer during the interminable meetings tomorrow morning but that's a late in the day. 

Reer EEKata. Eeeee EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeee *click* *chirup* ee.
<There. Now off to help the littler swimmers, that took near two hours between interruptions. >

[novice]

Heading out to get friend-zoned

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Omar still working that 9-5, so has not looked into Day 2 yet, but figured there might be a couple quick queries regarding his post he could respond to.

CIA girl targeted no one.  This seemed out of character because that crazy white lady always have a target, but RP aside, the lack of a target suggests CIA not a villain.

The lack of a target absolutely does not suggest CIA (Carrie/novice, I presume) is not a villain. If we assume 4 villains, only one of them had to do anything and they may or may not have used powers with the other villains. I would consider a lack of a target a null tell, not pro-town.

Omar tried to explain his line of thinking.  73% that any other player in the game is village just on probability alone.  Since CIA didn't kill (~25%, target Queen with an ability, or use an ability period), would roughly cut that 27% chance of villainy in half.  That just Omar's estimate.  So that's around 86% to be village.  Already had a village read, so 85-90% village.  That's Omar thinking.  If you assigning any other players more than 90% of being village at this point, Omar thinks that's foolish.

Additionally, CIA placed a vote on Flip in D1 when Q already had around six votes I think based on my notes.  Skelly called him out for it, saying it was a null vote.  This was at a time the Q train was starting to form, which Queen pointed out was taking pressure off the top vote getters at the time.  If CIA was a villain who knew Q was a snitch, why throw away a vote on Flip when Doc, Weeb Fox and Omar and a couple others had better chances of being lynched?  

So Omar thinking CIA is village and villains did not know Q was a snitch. 

Is the bolded part supposed to follow from the preceding paragraph? If so, how? If not, why do you think that?

Omar figures villains likely to save a known snitch given his abilities (unless both Bee-Boy and Flip villains, as previously discussed, which also seems unlikely based on pure odds).  Omar analysis mainly suggest you were the only person whose actions looked like a late save attempt, and since you did not target N1 and Omar see as an unlikely villain, I just see no evidence for a villain-attempt at saving Q.  Thus probably a lack of knowledge on the part of the villains, you feel?  Omar feels like it usually a spook's job to make similar analysis, CIA.

 So Omar figured the lynch (you mean nightkill?) 

Oh indeed.

[Bobchillingworth]

Apologies for stumbling across your path as you glide through the game on the back of your reputation; I'm sure you'll be fine.

I’m sure I will. Shouldn’t you be trying to prevent that, if you think I’m scum?

What do you think of Rowain’s D1 vote analysis?

Jerry! Jerry, the ice queen is acting suspicious! Why are people suggesting that others vote for them?? I think Cyne indicated that everyone should dig into him as well! If you're village, how does suggesting that help the town??? I'm FREAKING OUT over here!

Well, fine, IF THAT'S WHAT YOU WANT, since it's not like your Day 1 voting behavior suddenly became any less suspicious:

novice

That's right! George went there! I'm on the edge, Jerry!


If you're referring to Rowain's D1 analysis in Post #597, I already commented on it in Post #617. Shouldn't you be tracking on this, if you're some sort of analyst or whatever? It's not like George has an extensive history here! But I'll repeat myself anyway, because that's the kind of guy I am: I thought it was useful, but disagreed with his conclusion. But then Commodore himself seemed to concur that it could be worth the information gained, and I'm still NOT REALLY GETTING why he thought a "Megapost" was imminent, but nobody else seems to care about the latter, so who even knows what's going on!

Also, if it's not obvious, if Commodore is scum and did indeed make a mistake by indicating he had insider knowledge that Omar was about to post monologue, then that means he and Omar are IN CAHOOTS! They're colluding, Jerry!

What about you, huh? Did you not find it his apparent forewarning strange?

[Gaspar]

I mean GES definitely suggested he had 8 notebooks full of thoughts or something.

[novice]

It was forewarned here:

I think that exchange may have won my heart.

GES, what's up home slice?

Yo, Weeb Fox. 

Omar in the weeds right now. Tin foil hat time. Omar up to hour 4 and post 323 on the re-read. Taking way longer than expected and real life bought to intrude again.  

Omar got five pages of Bic’d out single-spaced notes already. Feeling more like that white dude in the movie with the pretty brain who saw spooks and specters in the algebra than the version who invented the useful equation. 

But Omar will coalesce and provide thoughts when done.

[Bobchillingworth]

Okay! Okay, I get it already! I don't think saying "I have a lot of notes" is the same as claiming "I will make a megapost", but maybe it doesn't matter! It's a post about nothing!

[novice]

What do you think of Rowain’s D1 vote analysis?

If you're referring to Rowain's D1 analysis in Post #597, I already commented on it in Post #617.  Shouldn't you be tracking on this, if you're some sort of analyst or whatever?  It's not like George has an extensive history here!  But I'll repeat myself anyway, because that's the kind of guy I am: I thought it was useful, but disagreed with his conclusion.

Yes, that’s what I’m referring to. The reason I ask is that your own vote analysis concluded that my voting was the worst in total across various permutations (scum knowing and not knowing thrawn’s role, etc.) Considering movements in votes like Rowain has done, and not just the final tally, is that still your conclusion?