WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[novice]

Also I have read Commodore’s post 771, and I’d want to engage with it at face level for town Commodore’s sake. But every time I look at it confirmation bias kicks in and I just see scum hedging both ways - leaving mislynch doors open and trying to hide who his scum buddies are.

Well, at face level I can agree with Rowain that the case on him is poorly justified.

Kaiser, where did you go?

[sunrise089]

Okay, It's 4:00am and I'm typing in our pitch black hotel room so as not to disturb the family, but I'm finally caught up

Since I've been living all day with the game state as it was yesterday afternoon, let me touch a little more on the end of day 1. Most of this has been mentioned in one form or another but I think I have a novel point and one or two things which may benefit from emphasis.

Sunrise why is my attack on thrawn scummy?

I'm going to include Lewwyn in a suspect list below and this is my case, such as it is: You were my number 3 suspect when I went to bed the night before the first deadline. I said then you had "done a 540 from your previous games." After that you came back, were classic Lewwyn, and hammered like crazy. And you caught scum! But you did almost nothing else Day 1, and your Day 2 is still down from your baseline IMHO. So one might question why you became active when you did, and it could be that you (correctly!) saw Thrawn's battery of new posts which were scummy as all get-out. In that world a scum Lewwyn allied with scum Commodore + scum Pindicator could rally the troops onto a vulnerable mislynch, trusting in your own abilities to save you from backlash Day 2. Or, third-party Lewwyn could have thought they found a real wolf and gone into active mode to get town credit. That said obviously your attack wasn't the second scummiest moment of the game ex-post. But I think it's far from clearing. Of course any scum read is out the window if scum Lewwyn knew Thrawn was a traitor...

If the wolves knew Thrawn was scum, then the end of day seems odd to me (I would think the wolves would choose to bus a wolf and get full village cred over bussing a traitor

When I pulled traitor in 26 the wolves didn't know i was one, and I expect the same here...

For that reason I think Lewwyn is likely town. Meiz probably is too. Not sure i have any town leans off the top of my head past those 2.

...except I don't think it was, and I respectfully disagree from Cyneheard and Pindicator here. Mafiascum says traitor is worth ~half a mafia. On top of that the traitor here was given a super hard road where they didn't know the scum team (mafiascum says by default traitor knows the mafia and mafia know there IS a traitor but not their identity; obviously we're not at the default here). Given that hard road Thrawn was understandably having a hard time with the game and was at substantial risk of being lynched (for example he was the top vote-getter earlier in Day 1). I find it absolutely believable for scum Lewwyn to bus a frazzled traitor, certainly over a wolf (I don't think that's even a close call) and possibly over a villager. Basically if one thinks a wolf can bus a wolf they should be AT LEAST as willing to bus a traitor. The strength in Thrawn was the abilities, and I don't think there's a credible case they wolves would have known those. Absent that, I can easily see a busy/disinterested Lewwyn perking up enough to hammer Thrawn and then easing back off.

Next, I just want to go ahead and post this record of the very end of the day:

Rowain made it 6-5 Thrawn @ 11:56 - Town points to Rowain here, this was the only vote to actually switch the target due to tiebreaker rules.

Gaspar made it 6-6 Thrawn @ 11:58 - This could not have saved Thrawn by itself, but it was done early enough where it conceivably could have allowed someone else to.

I made it 7-6 Thrawn @ 11:58 - FWIW had Thrawn not self-voted this vote would have been the deciding vote, though as it happened it ended up not mattering.

Thrawn self voted to make it 8-5 Thrawn @ 11:59 - Meh

Novice made it 8-6 Thrawn  @ 11:59 - This vote is the most interesting to me. It was the closest to the deadline and Novice says he made it without seeing the Thrawn self-vote, which I believe. There's no way to know whether he saw either of the Gaspar or sunrise votes, but if he saw Gaspar's but not mine he'd have had reason to thought he'd be saving Thrawn. 

Anyways nothing definitive there, but when/if we get more info on Commodore and/or Pindicator I think this could be of some use.

[Meiz]

Okay, It's 4:00am and I'm typing in our pitch black hotel room so as not to disturb the family, but I'm finally caught up

Oh no... don't tell me you are serious

[WarriorKnight]

Wolf lean:

Pindicator - Sticking with Day 1 read. He is posting more today, but there is a lot which I don't find very productive and seems more like it's trying to distract us to get heat off of himself/commodore.

Commodore - For reasons I've mentioned previously. 

I smell bullshit because:

2 other people have me at least slightly suspicious:

GES: My initial suspicions of him in post 224 still hold true (minus the Lewwyn quote, that's a misunderstanding as Meiz later pointed out). Was one of 4 people who didn't place a vote on pindi/thrawn, not a tell by itself but not helpful to town. But I think Gazglum's death is the main reason I'm suspicious of him right now, it puts a lot of shade on GES as Gazglum's biggest read for me was trying to get something going on GES. I agree with post 496, which was Gazglum's last post raising several red flags on GES. All this doesn't necessarily mean GES is scum but does at least raise the possibility.

Commodore: I don't like how after he did a pindi vote claiming a reread, he didn't contribute any reads at all the rest of the day before moving to thrawn 10 min before deadline. I also don't like his lack of contributions to Day 1 despite having a high post count. As far as I can tell his only real contribution is post 542 - a minor summary near the end of night 1, basically saying he doesn't have much in the way of reads.

I've dropped my suspicion of Lewwyn, he seems to be back today asking questions as the town Lewwyn we all know and love. Pindi has started to contribute a bit more today and while death analysis on an unconfirmed alignment (although prob. Town) isn't the best use of time it is enough for now. I think I'll start with Commodore and see where things go from there.

You don't mention Pindi at all in your initial vote and statement of suspicions here. GES posts a pretty good defense and even claims tracker. You gotta drop him from the wolf lists. So Pindi makes a reappearance, but you say sticking with the day one read? and you brush off his posting today. Very lazy wolf. Today pindi has posted a lot and much of it HAS been productive, but you are disregarding that entirely. Why wouldn't pindi try to scum hunt today if he is actually a villager? Instead you characterize it as distracting and trying to get the heat off. How is posting more and discussing possibilities distracting? He's literally doing what we asked him. Scumhunt.

Warriorknight is scummy as hell.

To be fair to pindicator, I haven't read all his most recent posts. I spent all of this morning trying to get at least a basic read on everyone, so it is very possible I missed something good he posted overnight. But if I have to look to find something good then that's already a problem. I will reread pindi and see if there's any reason to update my assessment of him before I vote for him again, but I'm not holding my breath.

I don't understand why you think this by itself makes my scummy and worthy of voting for me. There are 15 other people in this game I have to keep track of, I'm not going to catch everything. This would be a completely different story if I was actually voting for pindicator based on this read, but I'm not voting for him right now nor have I voted for him at all today.

BTW WK you said you'd vote for COmm and see where things went from there, but it seems like they haven't gone anywhere. Maybe that's because things don't go anywhere unless you push, but you seem very content to sit on Comm.

Your reasoning in your vote doesn't make a lot of sense. You don't like his low content from Day 1 but you haven't said anything about what he's done today. You don't like his vote on pindi or thrawn... why?

You've missed post 642 (RP edited out):
https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753472

Commodore and Pindicator, instead of high fiving each other, why don’t you help us expand our horizons?

Were, ticker*chirp*
< I'm happy swimming in this tunnel, thanks. >

Yup, I'm keeping my Commodore vote right where it is. There is no good explanation for declining to contribute for no apparent reason.

Unless you care to explain Commodore's actions here in a town light, I'm not moving my vote. Although I need to get an opinion on Adrien since he's gaining votes, and I'm seriously reconsidering my current town lean on you if you are going to jump around so much late on Day 2.

Slight Town lean:

alhambram - More quiet then I would like, but I do like his posts since the beginning of Day 2 (including a crosspost right now).

Can you clarify for Omar what you like in Alham's posts?

I like posts 713 & 724 below:

https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753576
https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753592

Seems open and honest with his thoughts. Could definitely contribute more often but it is enough to raise him into a very slight town lean over unsure IMO.

[AdrienIer]

Questioning Lewwyn's towniness currently, but one of the best ways to get info on that is to find out where the Warriorknight train goes.

What's going on here?!  You're questioning Lewwyn, but you're voting for WK because you want to see where the train goes, and also because you don't like his roleplay, and also some unspecified votes you didn't like for mystery reasons?  I'm not onboard with this!  Also, nobody else is voting for novice.  Which is a SHAME Jerry, a shame!  So, AdrienIer.

The best way to get info on someone's alignement is to kill him. The second best is to use a nightpower on him that's seer-like. The third is to look at voting patterns, both from him and from others when following him. I'm not sure I want to do n°1 right now, so n°3 it is.

[sunrise089]

Current reads:

Town:

*Meiz - super active, I don't find any of the reasoning problematic, I like the targets

*Rowain - I think posts 529 and 595 are very good. I know scum can talk theory with less risk, but in this case I think the traitor reveal + night 1 non-role-reveal have made town talk too little about theory and voting patterns and not too much.

Keeping an eye on (not necessarily 5th, 6th, and 7th scummiest but specific scum flags):

*Lewwyn - as stated in my post immediately proceeding this. Nabbing Thrawn was great, big credit there. But everything else has been weak by his standards, and given the uncertainty about scum role knowledge, of all the potential scum I think scum Lewwyn would have the best combo of balls and desire to drive the train.

*Adrien - Post 706 is bad to me, just because I think you're giving passes to several very scummy players.

*Kaiser - 1) I note above the flip-flop on Thrawn is defensible but suspicious to me; 2) Rowain notes in 600 that the double-vote for Thrawn is also potentially weird; 3) I agree with my frenemy Gaspar that there's a Roland vibe. I have complete faith that a scum player can be willing to put in the effort to make massive summary posts and/or blocks of quotes, and so I want to mildly push-back on anyone saying "that effort has to mean you're town" (though respect for the effort!)

Scum lean:

4) Commodore - Lovable as all get out, but I still don't like the Day 1 Meiz vote; I still don't like the inability to read Omar; he thinks all my suspects are town; I'm not seeing reads commiserate with, say, WW46; and though it's definitely not a big scum tell to me I think the move onto Thrawn Day 1 was questionable.

3) Pindicator - Apparently couldn't read Commodore and still hasn't answered that to my satisfaction unless I've missed it - Novice in 583 presses and I only see a deflection; had a lot of "go ahead and lynch me" chatter at the end of Day 1 which despite being on his bucket list still strikes me as scummy;  no reads early.

2) Jabbz - Low activity, no reads, and half of the dude's posts are "oh, sorry, that was my mistake." It's too late for me to go find quotes but I can do that tomorrow, but there's just so much lazy scuminess with misunderstanding rules, votes, cases, etc.

1) Gaspar - Who else?! I acknowledge a lot of Gaspar-as-scum conflicts with Commodore+Pindicator as scum. That said, he just kind of makes stuff up a lot. I've covered his Meiz attack ad nauseum so I won't re-hash, but the goalposts kept moving there and I still think, despite him making a good-faith effort to answer me, that the original attack was unwarranted. I asked him about saying the then-inactive Thrawn "feels like he's trying too hard" and Gaspar stated he meant trying too hard not to be himself from a past game, and later said Thrawn had "retreated to his shell" when Thrawn had become very active but was just being scummy. I know there are interpretations of all of this in his favor, but one else in the game makes me have to keep ignoring the plane meaning of their words to see them as town. Plus, he fought super hard to save Thrawn via pushing Pindicator/Commodore votes, including lobbing up a vote which novice could have spiked to successfully save him absent my vote and the Q self-vote; his critic would up dead; and it looks like he's setting up a mislynch a bit on me - I think I'm pretty towny save for the IRL activity gap, and Gaspar has consistently been lowest on me ever since I began pressuring him. I was worried about being hit at night but while Gazglum may have been easier to mislynch than me he was much more likely to be night-killable.

[sunrise089]

Okay, It's 4:00am and I'm typing in our pitch black hotel room so as not to disturb the family, but I'm finally caught up

Oh no... don't tell me you are serious  

As I told my wife when describing why I'd need some extra domestic support for about two weeks, yes I'm serious!

[sunrise089]

I should register a vote before bed. Commodore. That said I would love to discuss with anyone my higher ranked candidates listed just above. I am unlikely to move to Gold and very unlikely to move to Rowain. I could go Kaiser but not over Commodore.

[WarriorKnight]

Lewwyn, your thoughts on Com and Pind mirror mine yet you vote for me, THEN for one of those who've been on my suspiscion list since forever. What the hell ?

I'm not sure I want to join you on WK now

Questioning Lewwyn's towniness currently, but one of the best ways to get info on that is to find out where the Warriorknight train goes.

Adrien, care to explain the reasoning behind the hesitation behind joining Leewyn on the train for me, then immediately after deciding to join him anyway? (preview edit: nevermind I see you've did it below)

I'd also like more then just a few lines on why I've been high on your scumlist for a long time.

Relevant crosspost:

Questioning Lewwyn's towniness currently, but one of the best ways to get info on that is to find out where the Warriorknight train goes.

What's going on here?!  You're questioning Lewwyn, but you're voting for WK because you want to see where the train goes, and also because you don't like his roleplay, and also some unspecified votes you didn't like for mystery reasons?  I'm not onboard with this!  Also, nobody else is voting for novice.  Which is a SHAME Jerry, a shame!  So, AdrienIer.

The best way to get info on someone's alignement is to kill him. The second best is to use a nightpower on him that's seer-like. The third is to look at voting patterns, both from him and from others when following him. I'm not sure I want to do n°1 right now, so n°3 it is.

Really??? You're willing to waste an entire day vote to get a read for someone else? That's real scummy AdrienIer.

Why are you not voting for Lewwyn if you are curious about his alignment?

[WarriorKnight]

Why are you not voting for Lewwyn if you are curious about his alignment?

Upon rereading I should clarify this question, why are you unsure about just voting for Lewwyn?