WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Lewwyn]

You are not giving me any credit Meiz. I'm am a great wolf. It's just a fact. I would never misplay this game that badly. I would never push so hard to save a wolf buddy this early in the game. Don't you see how useful commodore's lynch was? If the wolves knew he was under heavy fire Day 1 and he was going to be under fire Day 2 they would easily know to keep Commodore on their suspect lists and they would easily hop on and bus Comm. You have to look at who halfheartedly voted for comm. The wolves don't vote as a block there are probably some on comm, some on Adrien, some on WK. But the wolves aren't leading the lynches. 

Why would I be so stupid? I caught thrawn on Day 1. I could have used that to coast forward as scum and played it as though I was having a hard time picking out scum (like Adrien did).

I'm just a villager, and if you expect a villager to be right or to make all the same obvious reads that you do, then you're wrong.

And Meiz you're trying to make the circumstance fit. Imagine for a moment you were a hider and comm made that claim about not doing anything because he wasn't afraid of getting nightkilled? If you believed at that time that COmm might be innocent, what would you have done? If I had switched and voted for comm at that moment with 10 minutes left, what would you have said? YOU WOULD BE SAYING THE SAME GODDAMN THING. I must have planned it with Comm to give me cover to bus him because it was clear comm was going down. You've already convicted me in your mind Meiz, but everything I've done is based on my ignorance of everyone's roles not my knowledge of them.

[Rowain]

You are not giving me any credit Meiz. I'm am a great wolf. It's just a fact. I would never misplay this game that badly. I would never push so hard to save a wolf buddy this early in the game.

But wouldn't you say exactly that f you were scum? Don't get angry but you know "A wolf would never do that" is not really an argument.
Additional Commodore was a roleblocker which is in a game where there are many powerroles an extremely useful skill well worth sacrificing some town-cred. Just for example there is a tracker in town so I'm pretty sure the scumthread has some serious decisions to make about who goes out and kills whom.

Why would I be so stupid? I caught thrawn on Day 1. I could have used that to coast forward as scum and played it as though I was having a hard time picking out scum (like Adrien did).

Catching thrawn doesn't give much credit under those circumstances.


Anyway just as an experiment say you are town and you see player A asks player B has done during the night. What would you conclude from that.
Then you see player B not only answers "I have done nothing" but he also expands B "Because I didn't fear to get nightkilled" An absolute unnecessary claim for anyone with a powerrole. This immediatly triggers player C to answer "What you got a defensive role" to which B answer Commuter and C is happy and explains later that he is a hider. In one go 2 players with a townrole.

Would you find that course of action suspicious or not?

[Lewwyn]

Wolves will not kill me tonight if there is a vig who is convinced I am scum they might take a shot at me, so be it. I will not hide tonight. I'm a 3 shot Hider. I can hide behind anyone and I will be safe from kills directed at me. If the person I hide behind dies I will die as well. I can hide behind wolves or villagers it makes no difference. I hid behind Jabbz Night 1. You may note the last person I mentioned in my final night 1 post was Jabbz, a breadcrumb a la El Grillo.

[Meiz]

You are not giving me any credit Meiz. I'm am a great wolf. It's just a fact. I would never misplay this game that badly. I would never push so hard to save a wolf buddy this early in the game. Don't you see how useful commodore's lynch was? If the wolves knew he was under heavy fire Day 1 and he was going to be under fire Day 2 they would easily know to keep Commodore on their suspect lists and they would easily hop on and bus Comm. You have to look at who halfheartedly voted for comm. The wolves don't vote as a block there are probably some on comm, some on Adrien, some on WK. But the wolves aren't leading the lynches. 

Why would I be so stupid? I caught thrawn on Day 1. I could have used that to coast forward as scum and played it as though I was having a hard time picking out scum (like Adrien did).

It's not a misplay for as confident player as you are. I fully believe you trust in your abilities as a wolf to direct town in a poor direction and that's what I think you've done this game. There is no handbook on how wolves play this game, how they obviously need to vote different targets, on how wolves would definitely play the way they did.

I think we were on a scum team that one game where none of the wolves voted on a player and we happily lynched one villager after another?  

I'm just a villager, and if you expect a villager to be right or to make all the same obvious reads that you do, then you're wrong.

I'm not expecting villagers to vote always right. I still have Cyneheard as town despite his mishap in the end of D2. As long as I find logical reasons for the play, I can read a player town even if they get it wrong.

And Meiz you're trying to make the circumstance fit. Imagine for a moment you were a hider and comm made that claim about not doing anything because he wasn't afraid of getting nightkilled? If you believed at that time that COmm might be innocent, what would you have done? If I had switched and voted for comm at that moment with 10 minutes left, what would you have said? YOU WOULD BE SAYING THE SAME GODDAMN THING. I must have planned it with Comm to give me cover to bus him because it was clear comm was going down. You've already convicted me in your mind Meiz, but everything I've done is based on my ignorance of everyone's roles not my knowledge of them.

So appearances for others instead of acting what's right?

TBH I'm not sure I can handle another day of YOU'RE IN A TUNNEL argumentation.

[Meiz]

I'm a 3 shot Hider.

I read this as 3-shot Hitler initially. BUT I'M NOT IN TUNNEL!!!!

[Lewwyn]

You are not giving me any credit Meiz. I'm am a great wolf. It's just a fact. I would never misplay this game that badly. I would never push so hard to save a wolf buddy this early in the game.

But wouldn't you say exactly that f you were scum? Don't get angry but you know "A wolf would never do that" is not really an argument.
Additional Commodore was a roleblocker which is in a game where there are many powerroles an extremely useful skill well worth sacrificing some town-cred. Just for example there is a tracker in town so I'm pretty sure the scumthread has some serious decisions to make about who goes out and kills whom.  

Not an unfair point. Imagine as a villager my frustration.

Why would I be so stupid? I caught thrawn on Day 1. I could have used that to coast forward as scum and played it as though I was having a hard time picking out scum (like Adrien did).

Catching thrawn doesn't give much credit under those circumstances.

True, and yet I ask you to consider the way in which I caught him, the reason logic and the scumhunting. Because I was honestly and sincerely hunting, and I wasn't trying to save anyone I was just trying to nail the one who was scum.

Anyway just as an experiment say you are town and you see player A asks player B has done during the night. What would you conclude from that.
Then you see player B not only answers "I have done nothing" but he also expands  B "Because I didn't fear to get nightkilled" An absolute unnecessary claim for anyone with a powerrole. This immediatly triggers player C to answer "What you got a defensive role" to which B answer Commuter and C is happy and explains later that he is a hider. In one go 2 players with a townrole.

Would you find that course of action suspicious or not?

No I would not. Because the first thing that leapt to my mind was I have a 3 shot defensive role and if I think no one is going to kill me night 1 I won't use it. I can see how others might have other roles and have different perspective though. Just pretend you're me with my role and my read on the situation.

[Lewwyn]

TBH I'm not sure I can handle another day of YOU'RE IN A TUNNEL argumentation.

If I survive the night I intend to scum hunt and catch a wolf. If you agree to listen and keep an open mind about my arguments and not dismiss them out of hand based on your conviction that I'm a wolf then it won't matter. If people ask me stuff I'm going to respond. If people don't I'll continue scumhunting. If I get lynched, as long as the village gets the rest of the wolves it doesn't matter. I've won. So today I'll do the same thing I've done every day. Hunt scum.

[Alhambram]

Soon after day 2 ended, I went typing till end of night almost till morning which did cause slight sleepdeprive at work today, throwing things out my mind. WW can be quite time consuming, hopefully I didn't make vicinity stay awake from my typing.
I dislike first day and in this case day 2 of WW because I rather get and work with factual information. It was finally given with confirmation of Commodore as villain.
It allowed me to do vote analysis for myself. Keep in mind that this is my view upon game till now and how others behaved and not facts. So feel free to disargee with some points or whole thing!

Analysis Day 1 vote
It started with some roleplay bantering and votes for lulz or prodding people to post more content, it was Lewwyn’s vote at #174 with 7 hours to go which shaped remainder of the day.

Lynch votes Before Lewwyn started thrawn train by switching vote to thrawn
3 votes: Gaspar/Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum, novice, sunrise089,)
3 votes: Lewwyn/Retsuko (Bobchillingworth, Meiz, WarriorKnight)
3 votes: Gold Ergo Sum/Omar Little (Gazglum, AdrienIer, Commodore)
2 votes: thrawn/Q (Cyneheard, Rowain)
1 votes: novice/Carrie Mathison (Gaspar, Jabbz)
1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser,)
1 votes: sunrise089/Mr.Peanutbutter (pindicator)
1 votes: Kaiser/Isaac (Q)
1 votes: WarriorKnight/Statler & Waldorf (Lewwyn)
1 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz)
1 votes: no lynch (Alhambram)
 
Thrawn got 2 votes already before Lewwyn voted him. Cynehard voted Q due Role Playing reasons very early and Rowain later voted to prod thrawn bit more.
After Lewwyn started thrawn train, Gaspar and Meiz moves to thrawn based upon same suspicion due acting out character of thrawn. Pindicator also voted for thrawn but his remarks rubbed wrong with Meiz and Pindicator quickly gained lynch votes from Cynehard and Warriorknight who was convinced by Meiz.
Interesting Rowain and Novice moved same time upon Commodore (#261)
Gazglum joined Pindicator train because at that moment 4 people got 3 votes and he decided to narrow down trains and if it turn out be mislynch, so be it but at least some information gained.
Gaspar starts feeling that thrawn might be mislynch and park vote at Commodore.
Commodore noticing that GES train didn’t take off due Gazglum leaving, hops upon Pindicator train, thrawn joins Pindicator train later explict saying that it is Lewwyn-Pindicator team up.
This cause things to explode with Kaiser (also due supicious behavior of thrawn) and AdrienIer join thrawn and Pindicator train respectively.

Lynch votes with half hour to go before deadline
7 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Meiz, Cyneheard, WarriorKnight, Gazglum, Commodore, Q, AdrienIer)
4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz, novice, Rowain, Gaspar)
3 votes: thrawn/Q (Lewwyn, pindicator, Kaiser)
1 votes: Gaspar/Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum)
1 votes: Alhambram/Homer Simpson (Bobchillingworth)
1 votes: Lewwyn/Retsuko (sunrise089)
1 votes: no lynch (Alhambram)
 
Then AdrienIer got convinced by Lewwyn to vote for thrawn, then Commodore swung vote to 5-5 between Pindicator and thrawn with tiebreak still in favor of thrawn while Commodore still got 4 votes. The Commodore swing alarmed Gaspar, he tries in avail to push people for Commodore. But then Rowain broke the lock in disfavor of thrawn with 5 minute to go while implying that he rather see Commodore hanged and told Gaspar that he should acted sooner for Pindicator lynch which results in vote for Pindicator by Gaspar and 6-6 with tiebreak in disfavor of thrawn.
Then Sunrise votes for thrawn, argumenting thrawn’s play similar as others did and also calls out Lewwyn for hammering down thrawn after quiet start of day with Pindicator as other suspect.
Then thrawn gave up and voted himself while novice voted lastminute but that vote wouldn’t made difference if thrawn didn’t switch due tiebreak.
4 other players who didn’t vote for either thrawn or Pindicator parked their votes before or around moment Lewwyn started thrawn train.
 
Final result Lynch votes
8 votes: thrawn/Q (Lewwyn, pindicator, AdrienIer, Commodore, Rowain, Kaiser, sunrise089, Q)
6 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21 (Meiz, Cyneheard, WarriorKnight, Gazglum, Gaspar, novice)
1 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz)
1 votes: Gaspar/Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum)
1 votes: Alhambram/Homer Simpson (Bobchillingworth)
1 votes: no lynch (Alhambram)
 
And now with Commodore as day 2 lynch turned out be villain. Let’s closely inspect his voting behaviour. At start of thrawn train, he voted for GES with accusation of GES being lazy scum, while both Gazglum and AdrienIer voted for GES before due low content. 
With Lewwyn switching to thrawn there were 4 players with 3 votes. Gazglum decides to swap to narrow down search for town, Commodore realizing that GES train is going nowhere hops upon Pindicator train, making it 5 wagons long which got extended to 7 by thrawn (self defense vote likely) and AdrienIer. Now question arises, why did Commodore do this? At first view it is vote for own protection by increasing Pindicator votes making harder for others to lynch Commodore which was justified since both Rowain and Gaspar seemed keen to lynch him. Also note that Commodore’s switch happened after Gaspar’s vote which was 4th and tied with Pindicator’s vote tally till Commodore put Pindicator’s vote tally at 5 and brought to 7 by thrawn (also self defense, seems that he felt train incoming) and AdrienIer. Then Adrienler got convinced by Lewwyn to vote for thrawn and that moment Commodore did vote swing to thrawn, bringing up thrawn vs pindicator to 5-5 with little time left, seems that Rowain realized that there is too few time left and voted for thrawn who behaved scummy at day 1. Sunrise’s vote was decisve one based upon thrawn play and he turned out be a traitor who might have known villains or not, also vice versa villains might not know about thrawn being traitor.
 
My end result from analysis of day 1:
Most townish feeling from this analysis: Rowain and Gaspar.
Moderate town feeling: sunrise089, novice, Meiz, Kaiser, Gazglum, AdrienIer, Cyneheard and Warriorknight.
Scum lean feeling due avoiding last 7 hours: Jabbz, GES, Bob and Alhambram.
Now Pindicator case based upon speculation: if he is townie, then Commodore didn’t really need to move away his vote after AdrienIer switched, yet he did. Maybe Commodore was hoping for easy day 2 lynch of Pindicator townie but after watching his behavior against Pindicator at day 2, that idea can be shredded.
If Pindicator is also a villain, then villain team got a problem, two of them are top lynch candidates. It got solved by Lewwyn starting thrawn train and also partly due how thrawn played 1st day making him easy lynch, thrawn got diffcult role to play here.
Now million dollar question: is Lewwyn also a villain and rode to save both Pindicator and Commodore. It is still unsure now to give answer, but Lewwyn’s did defend Commodore and Pindicator at various points, at day 1 by pointing to thrawn constantly as scum instead looking at both Commodore and Pindicator whose already did cause ring alarmbells with others.
And moreover Lewwyn seems pushing it even harder at day 2, hoping to start Warriorknight train instead Commodore but this time it was Commodore who was lynched and turned out be a villain! We should put up a grilled weeb fox as day 3 menu.
But there should 1-2 more villains around, they can be among 4 parked voters keeping low profile.
And is there strange swings in last half hour aside Commodore? Only one do stand out a bit: vote by Novice to Pindicator because it didn’t make difference and no arguments why switch, likely due time constraint but something to keep in mind. End of day 1 analysis.


Analysis day 2 vote
 
Let’s do same as day 1, in depth analysis from moment that Lewwyn attempts Warriorknight train.
Starting with beginning of day 2 till post #728
 
Rowain started Commodore train with Meiz and Gaspar almost instantly joining. Meanwhille 4 players who didn’t vote for either Pindicator or thrawn got prodded around by others or each others. Kaiser voted for Rowain who seemed irked by i tand voted for Kaiser together with Novice (again!).
Commodore meanwhile voted for GES and quess who joined him: Lewwyn and Pindicator putting votes for GES at 4, 4th being AdrienIer for prodding reasons. Then Commodore highfived Pindicator. It caused me to park my vote at Commodore, I decided if Commodore would show some towny vibes, or someone is even more scummy I might switch vote. But that didn’t happen, so I kept vote at Commodore till very end, Meiz and Gaspar also kept their vote till end. Also notable when I cast vote at Commodore, Lewwyn started to poke me, seeminly to protect Commodore and Pindicator.
Also interesting there was one more person who did complain about me calling out Commodore and Pindicator handfive, that was AdrienIer. And I am going talk about him more later at conclusions of day 2, but just for now, check all three votes of day 1, guess who always voted same as AdrienIer (answer is Commodore). Adrienler calling out me caused two people to vote for him which one of them was Lewwyn. But as soon red ink of Lewwyn’s vote for AdrienIer has yet to dry, he noticed a discrepancy in Warriorknight’s posts which I also did feel bit odd when rereading very fast through thread before deadline. Warriorknight did post response after I went to sleep and then to work early, therefore I would miss out unfolding drama till last hour.
 
Lynch votes before Lewwyn attempts Warriorknight train with post #728
4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, WarriorKnight)
2 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser, Commodore)
2 votes: Kaiser/Isaac (Rowain, novice)
2 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Cyneheard, Lewwyn)
1 votes: Alhambram/Homer Simpson (AdrienIer)
1 votes: Gold Ergo Sum/Omar Little (pindicator)
1 votes: novice/Carrie Mathison (Bobchillingworth)


Lewwyn instead asking in a politely way for explanation starts hammer down Warriorknight very hard. And guess about who Warriorknight did post? Yes again Commodore and Pindicator. Soon as Lewwyn cast vote, Pindicator followed him (again!). Also interesting is one who followed suit: AdrienIer which move baffled others and got piled up by GES, Bob, Rowain and Warriorknight after AdrienIer’s post #777. At that moment AdrienIer got most votes, almost seem that Commodore/Pindicator duo might escape again. But then Sunrise and Novice moved upon Commodore. Warriorknight then decides that AdrienIer is lesser of two evils and swings back to Commodore. Then AdrienIer and Lewwyn suddenly switch to Gaspar while Commodore jump to Warriorknight. Lewwyn remarks that he wants vote for Gaspar and Warriorknight alone, no mention of either Commodore and Pindicator (post #813). But afterwards they concludes that Warriorknight has best lynch chances and both Lewwyn and AdrienIer swings back to Warriorknight. Meanwhile Cyneheard decided to join Warriorknight train, he however still distrusts AdrienIer and calls out Lewwyn for trusting AdreinIer as townie. With half hour to go tally is as follows.
 
Lynch votes with half hour before deadline
6 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise089, novice, WarriorKnight)
5 votes: WarriorKnight/Statler & Waldorf (pindicator, Commodore, Lewwyn, AdrienIer, Cyneheard)
3 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Gold Ergo Sum, Bobchillingworth, Rowain)
1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser)
 
Two notable things about this vote: firstly is Kaiser who promised answers but came so late and parked vote upon Rowain almost since beginning of day 2. He can make difference if he shows up.
Secondly more interesting Jabbz has yet to vote and he promises to do last minute.
And in half hour those two did show up. Kaiser spent so many time writing stuffs that he decided casting vote for AdrienIer due looking most supicious of people that he invesitaged so far.
Jabbz did show up with interesting question about what Commodore did last night. Commodore answered that he did nothing, Lewwyn pressed further which ability which Commodore answered as commuter. Finally Jabbz did cast vote upon Commodore with some factual errors as Sunrise and Meiz pointed out. And to wrap up GES, Rowain and Kaiser switched to Commodore.

Final Result Lynch votes
10 votes: Commodore/Flipper  (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise089, novice, WarriorKnight, Jabbz, Gold Ergo Sum, Rowain, Kaiser)
5 votes: WarriorKnight/Statler & Waldorf (pindicator, Commodore, Lewwyn, AdrienIer, Cyneheard)
1 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Bobchillingworth)
 
End result from my analysis of day 2:
Most townish feel for me: Meiz, Gaspar, Sunrise, Novice, Rowain.
Moderate town feel: Alhambram, Warriorknight, GES, Kaiser, Cyneheard.
Slight town lean: Bob, his problem seem that he is absent at deadline vote and several hours before, maybe unfortunate timezones, but he did call out AdrienIer which is a plus in my mind.
 
Scum leans: there is group of 4 seemingly moving in same direction majority of day and often not interested to invesitage each others: Lewwyn, Pindicator, Commodore and Adrienler.
At day 1 Pindicator and Commodore already looked scummy, and Lewwyn initally was hero by unmasking thrawn, falls out grace now with presisent defense of Pindicator/Commodore and trying to create Warriorknight train. AdrienIer was bit quiet at day 1, not generating much suspicion. But his day 2 behaviour is puzzling and now we know that Commodore is villain which allows townies to track votes at day 1 and 2 properly now and it turns out that AdrienIer is voting with Lewwyn/ Commodore/Pindicator trio often. He might be clueless hero being used but I got bad vibes from his attack against me and Warriorknight.
Then last Jabbz, initially I got him as neutral but last half hour of day 2 changed it. Sitting out day 1 and then last minute vote at day 2 with factual errors, those things don’t improve towniness feel for Jabbz. But also he was one who started about Commodore’s night actions and interestingly Lewwyn followed up, I might think too much but maybe it was planned set up of villains to have Jabbz to ask questions. But for now I keep close eye at Jabbz too.
 
 
Probably villain group based upon my analysis form first 2 days:
 
-Commodore (lynched)
-Lewwyn
-Pindicator
-AdrienIer
-Jabbz (maybe, not 100% sure)
 
-thrawn (traitor and lynched)

[Rowain]

@Lewwyn
I follow your logic but still:

Jabbz who is not a tracker asks the mainsuspect what has he done N1. And the later answers not only with "Nothing" but also explains why and later what his role is. Triggering a role reveal from you.

Now I can either believe you are a villager that let himself getting ousted or it is a setup trying to at least clear one of 2. It was after all a last second attempt and as said roleblocker is well worth some risky play.

The one thing that does slighty speak for you is the fact that your Q-push in real saved pindicator and not Commodore on Day1.

I think I'm back to my original plan: if C is scum lets look at pindi.

[sunrise089]

Lewwyn, why are you defending so much during the night? Either you die or you’re revealed as town or you can have all this discussion in like 30 minutes