(October 6th, 2020, 10:37)sunrise089 Wrote: What is the advantage of responding now? How does the timing of the exchange benefit the town? Feel free to answer right at deadline.
One advantage I see: this is a discussion so several view-points are explored. A single end of night post is just a monologue with a lot less value IMO.
Pindicator then posts giant monologue immediately after.
Say what you will about my scum hunting, my slapstick is on point
(This is a post written during the long silence. I see that WK, and probably others, has posted essentially the same thing, but more eloquently. Not surprising.)
I don't have the time to do a big review of what we've learned, but I'm sure it would mostly be preaching to the choir anyway.
Lewwyn and Pindicator look like the obvious top two suspects. The end of day tally on D2, and the voting progression thougout D1, tell a clear tale.
I was going to suggest Cyneheard as the final scum. He's flown under the radar to the degree where people keep forgetting to include him in their reads list. But looking at the voting, AdrienIer seems like a good (probably better) candidate.
In my opinion Jabbz is clearly town. Not only do I read him as such, but he parked his vote on Commodore early on day 1, and scum jumped through all kinds of hoops to try and save Commodore.
I would lynch Lewwyn today. Sure, he was pot committed at the end, but there was no reason to bet as heavily as he did. He never read Commodore as townier than neutral, and his WarriorKnight case was based on a single argument - WK ignoring Pindicator's allegedly good scumhunting on D2.
Of the remaining players I would say Gaspar, sunrise, Meiz, Rowain and WarriorKnight (as Commodore's counterwagon) are pretty likely to be town, so that leaves Bobchillingworth, Alhambram, Kaiser and Gold Ergo Sum as potential suspects to look more into if the people on the block defend convincingly.
Day two final tally:
(October 5th, 2020, 11:05)BRickAstley Wrote: Tally as of post 914:
Commodore was Lynched. He was a Villain 3-Shot Roleblocker
Flipper Welcome to WW48! You are a Villain 3-Shot Roleblocker.
You have for some reason been chosen to be the bad guy, why would anyone do that? Oh well. Luckily you are cute, and you can convince others to play with you and to forget their other actions they intended to do at night.
Your team-mates are [redacted]. You may talk to them here during the course of this game.
You have the following active abilities, but may use only one per Night:
Each Night, if no other member of your faction is performing this action, you may target a player. Assuming no interference with your action, that player will die.
Each Night, you may target a player. Assuming no interference with your action, that player's active abilities will be blocked that night. You may use this ability a total of 3 times over the course of the game.
You win if at least one villain is alive and all other players are dead (or if nothing can prevent the same).
Confirm by replying to this PM with a summary of your role.
Day one tallies:
(October 2nd, 2020, 06:13)BRickAstley Wrote: Tally as of post 263:
thrawn was lynched. He was a Traitor 1-Shot Silencer & 1-Shot Poisoner
Quote:Q Welcome to WW48! You are a Traitor 1-Shot Silencer & 1-Shot Poisoner.
How funny! You, the omnipotent creator of morality games, have been put into one! And they tried to make you an innocent hero! Well we can’t have that can we? Let’s help the Villains win, and pull out a few neat tricks to use in the meantime...
You are a villager who wins with the Villains. You do not know who the Villains are, do not share in their communication, and do not share in their night kill.
You have the following active abilities, but may use only one per Night:
Poisoner: Once this game, you may target a player. Assuming no interference with your action, that player will die at the end of the following night. If your initial action succeeds, nothing can prevent that player dying the following night.
Silencer: Once this game, you may target a player. Assuming no interference with your action, that player will be unable to post anything in the game thread but their vote for the entire Day following this action. They may not quote, post attachments/pictures, or do anything else but vote the name of a living player for the full duration of the day.
You win if at least one villain is alive and all other players are dead (or if nothing can prevent the same).
Confirm by replying to this PM with a summary of your role.
(October 6th, 2020, 10:48)pindicator Wrote: ON THE SURFACE TOWN, BUT I SUSPECT COULD BE SCUM
- Rowain
Notice I did not put Rowain in the first list despite him being an early proponent of the Commodore & Pind theory late day 1. I also noticed that he voted Q late in day 1 when things mattered. Then despite repeating the Commodore and Pind pair theory he started day 2 off on Kaiser. I think he could have been testing the water to see if it was possible to get someone other than Commodore lynched. I'm guessing part of the reasoning for pushing the Commo But he's smart enough not to stick his neck out too far. Also, I think it's interesting that Night 1 he's talking about lynching me ahead of lynching Commodore and then day 2 he starts with Commodore and doesn't really bring me up. The order of lynching has changed. I don't know, this could be town. I'm not sold on it. Something to come back to if you run out of other leads.
So what is it now did I start with Kaiser or with Commodore ? ( It was commodore btw.) Also you ignore my explanation post where I outline Commodore first and if he is town you look townier if he is scum you are most likely scum too.
Yeah, the "I'm not sold on it" is in reference to me seeing exactly that and starting to doubt my own theory. Like I said though, I would lynch several people ahead of you. And unless something else comes to light I accept I have to go ahead of you too.
Ok guys, bad news first, I have to dramatically change the style I play this game. Meaning I cannot try to read the entire thread, make a big list and look for conclusions anymore. If there is interest, I can post my notes so far though for the remaining players.
There are two reasons for this, the first is my wife giving me the red card on spending every free second on this (she relates better to my PEBM18 CIV6 game, which suffered as well a bit this weekend )
The second reason is me realising on Day2 that it is so much work to invest with this amount of players, that I do not really have time to participate in the game itself but am researching like crazy ending up to time constraint to analyze and post about my findings.
To be honest, I believe I am poorly suited to read into people on the fly and then only research where necessary, as this does not fit my personal preferences at all, but I will give it my best shot in order to avoid the bad contribution I had on day2.
I actually had a nice plan going into Day2, I just barely executed on it because I was always running behind on content after spending a nice unexpected no-forum afternoon.
I was never really able to follow up on the people posting theories about Gazglum potentially having been scum, as I knew for a fact that this was not only far-fetched, but wrong and misdirecting people about his alignment was about the only reason I could have seen for the wolves to use their likely limited power.
Gazlum was a Hero 3-Shot Voyeur. A Voyeur can learn what actions targeted a player at night. Gazlum left me 2/3 uses of this ability, I do not know whom he voyeuered on night1, but I hinted this in an early post Day2 to see if people might react to it.
How do I know this? My role has been a Hero Village Backup. A Backup will inherit the role of the first Hero power role that dies, losing this ability in the process and has no other active abilities.
So why do I share this now? I believe it is likely that the scum has a backup as well and that would mean that either Thrawns or Commodores Abilites might have transferred to another player, either a previous villager inheriting the first role to die or a wolf on backup. So be on the watch, especially for the abilities these two had re-surfacing.
People I was getting a weird feel early on were Meiz for his changed behaviour. Meiz also started to become defensive around Rowain when he was attacked by me and others, which increased the feeling that he might have switched sides. It definetively would be a good balance tool for such a game to have a mechanism like this, but there was already a traitor in the game to balance the scum team/town relation.
Meiz has been a strong town lean for me before and it is difficult for me to switch him over, I still feel his play is towny just with some bad touches on them around this theory of mine.
Rowain/Novice for jumping on me heavily after my questioning of Rowain with his Gazglum scum theory, I am not sure if the wolves have an ability to figure someones role out during day and decided to go for Gazglum for that reason. To be honest, I doubt it as I do not see the Voyeur role as that strong. I believe they were either trying to get him off of GES or more likely trying to prepare to jump on GES / Gaspar themselves on Day2.
Rowain was countervoting me, asking if that was my whole case and I sadly missed the opportunity to start a discussion on this due to being stuck on my research. Novice jumped on and I was surprised about the quick succession and in my opinion hefty reaction from Rowain on an investigative vote. Maybe he was aware that I had suspicions about him earlier and was not just following this reasoning after all?
Rowain continued reacting quite agressivly to other people as well though so I am less confident that this has been a tell or that he is like this. I also came more around to his information lynch preference, especially after realizing that he has done it twice in this game (thrawn and comm). He even managed to hit two times scum, one time of which was defenitively open knowledge for the wolves.
I was never really able to go beyond this early Day2 investigation due to self-inflicted time constraints and a quick analysis around #815 which got increasingly worse as I had to hurry more and more. I took today to pacify my wife and decide on my preferred target for the night, better do not tell my wife where I am going to be, she might become jealous
And most importantly, there is only one traditional scum team, so I strongly assume there is no SK in this game.
People who have been mentioning this as part of their argument are either ignorant of this or are trying to misdirect people.
To start with, I am a villager, I am not omniscient, and as such I can be wrong. I was wrong about Commodore. I have no way of knowing if I was wrong about Pin or WK. I'm just going to play the way I play and sometimes you're the hero and sometimes you shoot more villagers than the wolves. I've had plenty of games where I've led a crusade on a villager and where I've led a crusade that helped a wolf. Whatever. I understand I'm a big profile, a lightning rod. This is great for the village because it means people can get reads off my interactions with others and I do help herd and catch wolves. I cultivate the role because I enjoy it and honestly the target on my back today, while frustrating is actually quite enjoyable and motivating. Yes I'm going to enjoy the self righteous fire.
Top suspects:
Pindicator
Adrien
Cyneheard
Jabbz
Kaiser
I do not think that all of Pin, Adrien and Cyneheard are scum. I find it illogical that all the scum would be on WK. And yet we must look at them with suspicion. This includes myself. I don't blame anyone for suspecting me.
Let's start with Jabbz. I think his vote at the end of the day is entirely too convenient. It comes once Comm is basically at critical mass. I find his reasoning to be a misunderstanding and a weak summary of the main arguments already against Commodore. I can easily see him being scum bussing for the credit. I have no proof. I just have a not great feeling and a suspicion based on the timing of the voted.
Kaiser is suspect again with the voting. He votes for Adrien who I think is suspicious but the timing of it, is such that it doesn't matter. His vote is safely thrown away someplace not in the line of fire. I think Adrien might be scum and Kaiser is putting his safe vote on a scumbuddy so he can point back to it in the future. His reasoning for voting Adien:
(October 5th, 2020, 10:54)Kaiser Wrote: Adrien before Lewwyn due to time constraints
His thrawn votes lacked arguments, he brought them later but it is always easier in hindsight. I feel much of his posts follow the rule that he can explain them later which I dislike as it leaves less of a trail and gives better outs later.
Follows strongly on dead Gazglums lead, but avoids commititing on anything else. When leaving GES he is focussing on the low posters and jumps quickly on WK after Lewwyn starts the train after stating earlier that he does not want to follow Lewwyn. His jump on gaspar seems defensive
This feels a lot like a string of facts without much warrant. There's not enough here to really explain exactly why he's voting Adrien over anyone else. His entire read through is like this every blurb lacks a real sense of force or meaning. I don't think I get much out of it and the best part is he can add some small spin to each little added piece without having to really take a stand. It reeks.
And you know what else REALLY reeks? He left me for last. He timed it so that he didn't have to have his blurb on me ready until after the lynch was done. I think that's pretty interesting and really useful for scum to be able to tailor their reread to after the lynch is already over.
Cyneheard followed me onto WK, which thank you for your confidence, but also hmmmm, I'm not sure if I believe you actually believed in the case against WK. I think this exchange sums up my feeling and Cyne deserves more scrutiny:
(October 5th, 2020, 10:31)Cyneheard Wrote:
(October 5th, 2020, 10:24)Lewwyn Wrote:
(October 5th, 2020, 10:20)Cyneheard Wrote: WarriorKnight - a WK reread makes me more skeptical of him than of Comm right now. He's got the one post of reads and other than that nothing.
@Lewwyn - I absolutely don't get why you're leaning village for Adrien.
@Gaspar - confirmation bias is setting in a lot of us right now, I've been trying to test/reevaluate that myself.
I feel like you’ve been more silent than I want out of you and you pop up at opportune moments. But I’m surprised you voted for warriorknight.
You're surprised I'm agreeing with you?
Sadly, I'm entering a meeting and will at most be able to vote during it.
Pindicator is hard. I STILL think he might be innocent. He was very active Day 2. He buddied me a lot so I may have a more charitable take on him I guess. 2 things make think he might be scum.
1) the comm thrawn vote.
2) the exchange he and Meiz had that I also jumped in on:
Adrien: I think there's no clearer scum post than this one:
(October 4th, 2020, 14:57)AdrienIer Wrote: I'm kind of at a loss, there's no one that's distinctly scummy right now. GES's post was fine and if there's another one for D2 it'll be mostly fine. The big posters seem like their usual selves, the two targets from D1 are IMO absolutely fine, so I'm going to look at lower content posters.
Alhambram's misunderstanding of the pindi/com exchange was odd though, and he's the one with the smallest post count. The only question is : would he be lazy enough to jump on such a bad case ?
Jabbz is "not great, not terrible" so far. Content is ok.
Kaiser's big post from D1 was good, and I find his posts pretty good so far.
WK's content is too low. Analysis on 3 people and that's it for D2.
Bob needs more posts, but I don't have scummy vibes on him.
Alhambram for now, closely followed by WK. And now, instead of doing analysis on interactions, I'm going to do some work that cannot wait
Adrien is playing the confused card after GES claims tracker. It just feels really really bad. And take that in conjunctioin with the rest of his posts +
Yeah when Adrien joined me on WK I should have been more suspicious, but I really suspected WK and I still have my suspicions, but I don't have time to go into them now.
wouldn't it be crazy if I was still right though? WK Adrien and Comm all being scum buddies and all up on the block at the same time. I think its highly implausible, but I'm starting think it might not be...
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
(October 6th, 2020, 10:09)Lewwyn Wrote: Wolves will not kill me tonight if there is a vig who is convinced I am scum they might take a shot at me, so be it.
Once I was know as fierce general but I have found my inner peace and the joy of drinking tea and eating meals since then. But every now and then I find evil lurking around and then I have to remind people why I was once called Dragon of the West.
So in the hope my reading is right and no interfering happens Adrien should be well done and history.
@Rowain re: night discussion - sure, but people can still reply once the day rolls. I don't think more info for scum is outweighed by the edge case of multitiple rounds of back-and-forth or a response from a potential killed player. ESPECIALLY discussion about actions happening that night as Lewwyn has done.
@Lewwyn - I'm hoping you're going to say something like "I was lying about not hiding and wanted to bait a kill." Even that seems weird since you're a good lynch candidate, but it would at least partially explain why you'd mention you weren't hiding tonight.
Important: I think I'm a decent night target so I want to state that I'm a Neighbor with Alhambram. Not a Mason, he could be scum (or, from his perspective, I could). Alhambram has been perfectly neighborly though our thread has been very inactive as he's been busy and I've either been active here or away. But I did want to confirm he posted a draft of his big post above yesterday. I say that because he comes to several of the same conclusions WK does, and to be fair to Alhambram I wanted to note that he had the thoughts first in our thread.
@Pin - I don't have time to check. I know you RESPONDED to the question of the dolphin speech but Novice or someone noted that you were still complaining just before Day 1 deadline. My sense is you eventually figured it out but its odd you'd have still had trouble that late. If I die others will hopefully confirm.
General - I said my reads late in the day. Gaspar is less scummy w/ Commodore flip. Jabbz is even worse due to late day - i didn't think Commodore was at all obv he had a power role in that discussion. And Lewwyn night talk isn't good in my eyes. GL town
AdrienIer was eliminated. He was a Hero Motion Detector.
Ron Swanson Welcome to WW48! You are a Hero Motion Detector.
“Normally, if given the choice between doing something and nothing, I’d choose to do nothing. But I will do something if it helps someone else do nothing. I’d work all night, if it meant nothing got done.”
You have taken that saying to heart lately. You can learn something at night, but you’re really doing nothing at the same time, aren’t you? Or at least the bare minimum.
You have the following active ability:
Motion Detector: Each Night, you may target a player. Assuming no interference with your action, you will detect if any actions were performed by or on that player, but not what they were, or who else was involved.
You win if all threats to the town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is alive.
Confirm by replying to this PM with a summary of your role.
WarriorKnight was eliminated. He was a Hero Reflexive 1-day Tree Stump
Statler & Waldorf Welcome to WW48! You are a Hero Reflexive 1-Day Tree Stump.
Oh ho ho! You love laughing along at these boneheads. And you’ve saved the best joke until last. Even if they try to take one of you out, the other one will stay behind a little longer to get the last heckle in!
Reflexive 1-Day Tree Stump: When you are eliminated during the Day or the Night, you will become a Tree Stump until the end of the next Day period. This means you can still communicate in the game thread until then, but you may not vote.
You win if all threats to the town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is alive.
Confirm by replying to this PM with a summary of your role.
Due to WarriorKnight's role, he may continue to post in thread for all of Day 3, but he may not vote. At the end of Day 3, he will leave the game fully.
Tea?
? ( It was commodore btw.) Also you ignore my explanation post where I outline Commodore first and if he is town you look townier if he is scum you are most likely scum too.
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