WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[sunrise089]

GG guys, looks like someone didn't like what you had done so far.

I'll need to check into their posts now to get a feel for who they liked and didn't. Am I right rowain is claiming to have vig'd adrien? Why was there no action by him on n1, when he was convinced of his next two targets? A lack of information, or a lack of motivation?

Yes, Rowain is claiming that he held off N1 and fired N2 and that it was close versus Pindicator but he shot Adrien. He explains more above.

I laid off last night with this question, but I'll ask it now and hope no one reads this as me being indignant. What did I say that was factually incorrect before the vote? I'm less concerned with being seen as scummy than other things right now, but it would help me going forward.

Fair, I need to check because maybe Comodore was just lying there too. Null read on that error/non-error pending re-read.

[sunrise089]

@Rowain - Thanks, I did see that after I posted.

[pindicator]

Cyneheard, why didn't you even explore me as a target day 2? You voted me at the end of day 1, and night 1 you're exploring possibilities of me-town vs me-scum and how that applies to possible thrawn-voters (#523). Day 2 you start with a vote on Commodore while saying I deserve the most scrutiny along-side Commodore, and yet later in the day you join me on WarriorKnight in opposition to Commodore. Wouldn't you be highly suspect of your #1 and #2 suspects both on WarriorKnight here? What made you do that?

btw, I finally just copied the first 1000 posts into Notepad++. Much faster rereading this way.

[Alhambram]

My head is still in processing about night events. For now I check claimed roles.

List of known role claims by players still alive:

GES: 3 shot tracker, used upon Novice at night 1 with result no action from Novice. #686
Kaiser: Hero Village Backup, claimed have taken Gazglum's power Hero-3-shot Voguer. Claims having 2 of 3 shot left from Gazglum. #986
Rowain: vig shotted AdrienIer at #988
Sunrise: Neigbor with Alhambram #991
Alhambram: Neighbor with Sunrise #1041

Questions for those with powers:

-GES already said that he won't reveal who he tracked at night 2 (yet?) at #1047

-Rowain, are you one shot vig or do you have more shots? I understand if you don't want answer this.

-Kaiser, who did you check at night 2? If you did, what is the result?

[Lewwyn]

GES who did you track last night?

Not sure if Omar should say one way or the other with a limited use ability.  Especially in response to a query by Weeb Fox.  Since Duo Puppet is confirmed village, I would be willing to say if he thinks it best.

Okay, personally I'm asking less because I think you've caught anything more because I'm wavering in my belief about whether you actually have the ability.

[Lewwyn]

My head is still in processing about night events. For now I check claimed roles.

List of known role claims by players still alive:

GES: 3 shot tracker, used upon Novice at night 1 with result no action from Novice. #686
Kaiser: Hero Village Backup, claimed have taken Gazglum's power Hero-3-shot Voguer. Claims having 2 of 3 shot left from Gazglum. #986
Rowain: vig shotted AdrienIer at #988
Sunrise: Neigbor with Alhambram #991
Alhambram: Neighbor with Sunrise #1041

Questions for those with powers:

-GES already said that he won't reveal who he tracked at night 2 (yet?) at #1047

-Rowain, are you one shot vig or do you have more shots? I understand if you don't want answer this.

-Kaiser, who did you check at night 2? If you did, what is the result?

And me, 3 shot hider

[Alhambram]

My head is still in processing about night events. For now I check claimed roles.

List of known role claims by players still alive:

GES: 3 shot tracker, used upon Novice at night 1 with result no action from Novice. #686
Kaiser: Hero Village Backup, claimed have taken Gazglum's power Hero-3-shot Voguer. Claims having 2 of 3 shot left from Gazglum. #986
Rowain: vig shotted AdrienIer at #988
Sunrise: Neigbor with Alhambram #991
Alhambram: Neighbor with Sunrise #1041

Questions for those with powers:

-GES already said that he won't reveal who he tracked at night 2 (yet?) at #1047

-Rowain, are you one shot vig or do you have more shots? I understand if you don't want answer this.

-Kaiser, who did you check at night 2? If you did, what is the result?

And me, 3 shot hider

D'oh! sorry, overlooked your post at #965. 3 shot hider it is and already used one at first night, hiding behind Jabbz.

[Alhambram]

And of course question is: did you also use your power for 2nd night? If you do, behind who?
Your post #935 sounds cryptic in retrospect related with your power.

[Alhambram]

Ok guys, bad news first, I have to dramatically change the style I play this game. Meaning I cannot try to read the entire thread, make a big list and look for conclusions anymore. If there is interest, I can post my notes so far though for the remaining players.

There are two reasons for this, the first is my wife giving me the red card on spending every free second on this (she relates better to my PEBM18 CIV6 game, which suffered as well a bit this weekend  )
The second reason is me realising on Day2 that it is so much work to invest with this amount of players, that I do not really have time to participate in the game itself but am researching like crazy ending up to time constraint to analyze and post about my findings.

To be honest, I believe I am poorly suited to read into people on the fly and then only research where necessary, as this does not fit my personal preferences at all, but I will give it my best shot in order to avoid the bad contribution I had on day2.

I actually had a nice plan going into Day2, I just barely executed on it because I was always running behind on content after spending a nice unexpected no-forum afternoon.
I was never really able to follow up on the people posting theories about Gazglum potentially having been scum, as I knew for a fact that this was not only far-fetched, but wrong and misdirecting people about his alignment was about the only reason I could have seen for the wolves to use their likely limited power.

Gazlum was a Hero 3-Shot Voyeur. A Voyeur can learn what actions targeted a player at night. Gazlum left me 2/3 uses of this ability, I do not know whom he voyeuered on night1, but I hinted this in an early post Day2 to see if people might react to it.

How do I know this? My role has been a Hero Village Backup. A Backup will inherit the role of the first Hero power role that dies, losing this ability in the process and has no other active abilities.

So why do I share this now? I believe it is likely that the scum has a backup as well and that would mean that either Thrawns or Commodores Abilites might have transferred to another player, either a previous villager inheriting the first role to die or a wolf on backup. So be on the watch, especially for the abilities these two had re-surfacing.

People I was getting a weird feel early on were Meiz for his changed behaviour. Meiz also started to become defensive around Rowain when he was attacked by me and others, which increased the feeling that he might have switched sides. It definetively would be a good balance tool for such a game to have a mechanism like this, but there was already a traitor in the game to balance the scum team/town relation.
Meiz has been a strong town lean for me before and it is difficult for me to switch him over, I still feel his play is towny just with some bad touches on them around this theory of mine.

Rowain/Novice for jumping on me heavily after my questioning of Rowain with his Gazglum scum theory, I am not sure if the wolves have an ability to figure someones role out during day and decided to go for Gazglum for that reason. To be honest, I doubt it as I do not see the Voyeur role as that strong. I believe they were either trying to get him off of GES or more likely trying to prepare to jump on GES / Gaspar themselves on Day2.
Rowain was countervoting me, asking if that was my whole case and I sadly missed the opportunity to start a discussion on this due to being stuck on my research. Novice jumped on and I was surprised about the quick succession and in my opinion hefty reaction from Rowain on an investigative vote. Maybe he was aware that I had suspicions about him earlier and was not just following this reasoning after all?
Rowain continued reacting quite agressivly to other people as well though so I am less confident that this has been a tell or that he is like this. I also came more around to his information lynch preference, especially after realizing that he has done it twice in this game (thrawn and comm). He even managed to hit two times scum, one time of which was defenitively open knowledge for the wolves.

I was never really able to go beyond this early Day2 investigation due to self-inflicted time constraints and a quick analysis around #815 which got increasingly worse as I had to hurry more and more. I took today to pacify my wife and decide on my preferred target for the night, better do not tell my wife where I am going to be, she might become jealous 

And most importantly, there is only one traditional scum team, so I strongly assume there is no SK in this game.
People who have been mentioning this as part of their argument are either ignorant of this or are trying to misdirect people.

Reposting Kaiser's claim because black text is annoying to read.

[Bobchillingworth]

Tally as of post 914:

Lynch votes
10 votes: Commodore/Flipper  (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise089, novice, WarriorKnight, Jabbz, Gold Ergo Sum, Rowain, Kaiser)
5 votes: WarriorKnight/Statler & Waldorf (pindicator, Commodore, Lewwyn, AdrienIer, Cyneheard)
1 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Bobchillingworth)

Okay, Jerry, I'm going to try to break down the votes again!  No, I don't care that apparently almost everyone else has already done the same thing!  It's mostly for my own reference!  I'm easily confused, Jerry!  Bamboozled by Europeans!  


Day 2 Commodore Voters

Given Comm's affiliation, I've broken the voters down as follows, with pretty colors to denote credibility.  The colors make it more accessible!  I've been dating a preschool teacher, Jerry!  She's taught me all about coloring!  Shapes and animal noises, too!  


Anyway, in voting order, we have:

* Meiz
* Gaspar
* Alhambram (claimed Neighbor)
* sunrise089 (claimed Neighbor)
* novice
* WarriorKnight (known Stump)
* Jabbz
* Gold Ergo Sum (claimed Tracker)
* Rowain (claimed Vig)
* Kaiser (claimed Understudy)


WK is confirmed town!  Enough said!

Meiz, Gaspar, sunrise, and novice lean town from their votes, because they either jumped on the Commodore train early and consistently, or joined late enough to matter.  That doesn't mean they're town, Jerry!  They could be deep cover scum!  But ON THE FACE OF THINGS they look better!  

Rowain also gets town points, not for his vote, which was LATE IN THE GAME, but because of his role claim, which I think is credible!  Although he could be a serial killer, or a heretofore unknown third faction of scum!  Or a second traitor!  Or a scum Vig!  Anything's possible, Jerry!  It's MADNESS, Role Madness!  ... But none of that sounds more likely than him just being a Vig.  I'd have been tempted to take that shot too!

Jabbz and GES pilled on late, and their votes didn't matter!  No points for you!  

Kaiser switched off Commodore, and then back on, far too late to matter!  Sound scummy to me!  Not sure about his role claim; sounds plausible, but that doesn't mean he isn't still scum, because it could swing both ways!  Not that there's anything wrong with that, Jerry!  Or he could be lying, though that'd be risky for any number of reasons!  Or maybe the scum both killed Gaz and confirmed his role in the process, somehow!  I don't know!!!



Day 2 WarriorKnight Voters

* pindicator
* Commodore (known Roleblocker)
* Lewwyn (claimed Hider)
* AdrienIer
* Cyneheard



Some may find this obvious, or trite, but George has to STICK WITH HIS GUNS here and say that Pindicator, Lewwyn, and Cyneheard are all suspicious for voting for a (now) known villager, in the main wagon opposed to lynching (also now) known scum Commodore!  Are they all scum??  No!  Or, probably not!  That would not be likely at all! If it was, I would be freaking out right now, Jerry!  Which I'm clearly not!  But anyway, at least one of them is very likely scum.  Maybe two!  


Day 2 AdrienIer Voters

... Wait, this was apparently only me?  George did not actually realize this until going back at Brick's tally to write this post.  Well, I wasn't around for like the last eight hours of the day- it's a legitimate excuse, Jerry!  Although now I'm getting really annoyed that there were free train rides and I wasn't around to grab a seat!  This ALWAYS happens to me, Jerry!  It's a conspiracy!  

But anyway, I voted for a villager.  Who Rowain then apparently shot.  Sorry, Adrien!  



So I still need to vote for someone- based on his Day 2 votes, and current "woe is me" attitude, I'm voting for Pindicator right now.  That's right, Jerry!

But Lew, Cyne, and Kaiser are all suspicious as well!  Also, though it got ZERO TRACTION before, since Commodore has now been CONFIRMED FOR SCUM, if anyone wants thinks my theory of Omar / Commodore "megapost" collusion wasn't COMPLETELY INSANE then maybe it's worth revisiting!