WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Kaiser]

GG Commodore

b) Kaiser: He was one of the don't lynch Commodore people. He even voted for me with a very weak case because I pushed for it early on.

Wolves will not kill me tonight if there is a vig who is convinced I am scum they might take a shot at me, so be it.

Once I was know as fierce general but I have found my inner peace and the joy of drinking tea and eating meals since then. But every now and then I find evil lurking around and then I have to remind people why I was once called Dragon of the West.
So in the hope my reading is right and no interfering happens Adrien should be well done and history.

I am catching up again, this time without making notes and I just came to the end of Night1, so I am not sure if anybody had picked this up yet. As it is my lunchbreak, I focus first on the attacks made on me and think this is quite interesting from Rowain.

I am scummy because I jump on a weak Adrien case he started, but his reading is right and he decides to vig shot Adrien?
Can you please lay out this reasoning to me Rowain, I do not like to tunnel on you but I had you as suspect on my last overview and this looks like reading the game the way it suits you.

Top suspects:
Pindicator
Adrien
Cyneheard
Jabbz
Kaiser

Kaiser is suspect again with the voting. He votes for Adrien who I think is suspicious but the timing of it, is such that it doesn't matter. His vote is safely thrown away someplace not in the line of fire. I think Adrien might be scum and Kaiser is putting his safe vote on a scumbuddy so he can point back to it in the future. His reasoning for voting Adien:

Adrien before Lewwyn due to time constraints
His thrawn votes lacked arguments, he brought them later but it is always easier in hindsight. I feel much of his posts follow the rule that he can explain them later which I dislike as it leaves less of a trail and gives better outs later. 
Follows strongly on dead Gazglums lead, but avoids commititing on anything else. When leaving GES he is focussing on the low posters and jumps quickly on WK after Lewwyn starts the train after stating earlier that he does not want to follow Lewwyn. His jump on gaspar seems defensive

This feels a lot like a string of facts without much warrant. There's not enough here to really explain exactly why he's voting Adrien over anyone else. His entire read through is like this every blurb lacks a real sense of force or meaning. I don't think I get much out of it and the best part is he can add some small spin to each little added piece without having to really take a stand. It reeks.

And you know what else REALLY reeks? He left me for last. He timed it so that he didn't have to have his blurb on me ready until after the lynch was done. I think that's pretty interesting and really useful for scum to be able to tailor their reread to after the lynch is already over.


Adrien: I think there's no clearer scum post than this one:

I'm kind of at a loss, there's no one that's distinctly scummy right now. GES's post was fine and if there's another one for D2 it'll be mostly fine. The big posters seem like their usual selves, the two targets from D1 are IMO absolutely fine, so I'm going to look at lower content posters.
Alhambram's misunderstanding of the pindi/com exchange was odd though, and he's the one with the smallest post count. The only question is : would he be lazy enough to jump on such a bad case ?
Jabbz is "not great, not terrible" so far. Content is ok.
Kaiser's big post from D1 was good, and I find his posts pretty good so far.
WK's content is too low. Analysis on 3 people and that's it for D2.
Bob needs more posts, but I don't have scummy vibes on him.

Alhambram for now, closely followed by WK. And now, instead of doing analysis on interactions, I'm going to do some work that cannot wait

Adrien is playing the confused card after GES claims tracker. It just feels really really bad. And take that in conjunctioin with the rest of his posts +

Yeah when Adrien joined me on WK I should have been more suspicious, but I really suspected WK and I still have my suspicions, but I don't have time to go into them now.

wouldn't it be crazy if I was still right though? WK Adrien and Comm all being scum buddies and all up on the block at the same time. I think its highly implausible, but I'm starting think it might not be...

You can believe me or you don't, I can only genuinely say that I was pressed for time even writing my conclusions to my research and had to hurry to get a vote in and check the tally and posts a last time before deadline.
I tried to formulate my reasoning in the sense fact -> why I dislike this behaviour, you are correct that I ended my pragraph with just stating the things I disliked due to time constraints.
One additional information, I dislike my leaving my vote on an off-lynch as I believe it makes it easier for wolves to manipulate the final vote tallies with less commitment in their favor.I believe when I started my post there were Comm, WK, Adrien and Pindicator as realistic lynches on the list of which I only managed to cover Comm and Adrien until I had to make a decision.

Rowain is correct that I was not ready to lynch Commodore based on his Day1 behaviours, as I have nor previous Commodore experience to justify the argument "He should have played better". However he was not on my no-lynch list, as the game-long train on him as well as the close connection to Lewwyn and Pindicator made him a information heavy lynch and I am slowly coming around to that reasoning.

So I settled on AdrienIer as the person with the scummier play in my eyes, Commodore's Day2 was not convincing but I had some agreement with his thoughts a part might have been also hesitance to join the heavy train ongoing.


btw. sorry for the formatting I was out yesterday and had to post shortly before deadline from my phone, apparently writing and then sending via gmail and inserting into the forum changes the text colour.

GG Adrien, I was wrong on you
GG WK, I was not too convinced about you either, mostly because you were getting town credit which I could not explain to myself. Your last post is a good summary of a potential Lewwyn saving Pindi and Commodore interaction, this had been stated earlier already (by Meiz or Rowain I believe) but you made a good overview about it. Luckily you can stay around one day if I understood correctly.

More to come tonight

[Kaiser]

btw nothing happened at Novice last night

[Rowain]

@Kaiser I'm not damning you for your Adrien-vote I'm damning you for your constant lynching Commodore is bad + Infolynch is bad clamoring you did. Only late in the day you found info-lynches worthwhile and the very end when the vote didn't matter at all you moved your vote there.

I see that you still try to throw dirt on me similar to Commodore. Perhaps you killed Gazglum to inherit his role.

[Jabbz]

Good morning folks. Seems to be a decent bit of scumhunting going on today which is good.

@ Jabbz
Why did you ask C if he has used his power on N1?

Why did you ask if someone targeted you?

What do you say concerning Lewwyns claim that he hid behind you on Day 1?

Because I'm an idiot who misread his ability, and just barely saved himself from a very embarrassing post doing a last second review and double checking the mafia wiki. I was pretty sure I had you nailed, until the wiki told me that I only get information if my target gets information, not based on whatever they do. I am a Hero 3-shot Beholder, a role I'm pretty sure I've never seen before, but somehow read as a watcher type role. I left breadcrumbs about my actions.

Night one I watched Commodore. I missed  pretty much the entirety of day one action because I was constantly playing catchup, and didn't even touch the thread until about 90 minutes after deadline, and that was a skim to find out who swung. Looking at the last few vote counts I saw that it was some combination of Thrawn, Pindicator, and Commodore on the list, with pindicator being a solid second. Given I only get information if someone does something, and with his placement, thinking pindicator wouldn't be active, I went to the next down the list and chose commodore. I received no information, resulting in this post.

Clearly the focus falls most heavily on Commodore currently. It's quite possible the case against him could check out. Should we focus on him to the exclusion of others though, no way. I will be looking looking at everyone so I can expand my information base. Then maybe I'll have something that's not just reaction to other people's day1 or night1 stuff.

Second to last word of each sentence in second to last paragraph is where I left my breadcrumbs. "Commodore check no information night1"

Going into night two I was very torn. I was getting pretty scummy vibes off of Rowain, but he was pushing on commodore at least a little. He didn't really ping on votes, so I figured as either town or scum he would likely feel safe taking actions, giving me something to work with. Breadcrumbs were left in post 1054, fourth word of each sentence. Couldn't figure out how to fit in 4 paragraphs, so I left it in the second.

I'll need to check into their posts now to get a feel for who they liked and didn't. Am I right rowain is claiming to have vig'd adrien? Why was there no action by him on n1, when he was convinced of his next two targets? A lack of information, or a lack of motivation?

check rowain no information.

I read my pm before I read the thread, so I was quite surprised to see you had claimed vig, and a kill. Had a beautiful post made up with some lovely snarky accusations. Thankfully it's early and I don't trust the caffeine to have kicked in so I checked my post for factual errors. Really happy I did that. 

As to Llewyn's claim about hiding behind me, I suppose it is plausible. Being absent almost the entirety of the first day and night left me highly unlikely to have any powers used on me, much less a kill. Seems a safe choice.

[Jabbz]

With that embarrassment out of the way, I think I'm going to go back to sleep. Maybe my brain will find me before I wake up.

[Meiz]

Jabbz, your next two lynches would be?

[novice]

That was an entertaining read, Jabbz. Can we expect a vote from you at some point?

We have very good lynch results so far but our power play leaves something to be desired.

[Meiz]

Because I'm an idiot who misread his ability, and just barely saved himself from a very embarrassing post doing a last second review and double checking the mafia wiki. I was pretty sure I had you nailed, until the wiki told me that I only get information if my target gets information, not based on whatever they do. I am a Hero 3-shot Beholder, a role I'm pretty sure I've never seen before, but somehow read as a watcher type role. I left breadcrumbs about my actions.

Checked... Wiki? Hmmm, I do find that suspicious in a custom role game. I also don't like Jabbz's focus on a fancy PR plays at the cost of scum hunting.

[Jabbz]

@Novice - Once I get my head together yes. TBH I was excited about being able to drop a bomb on Rowain and had been pretty focused there since yesterday. Only waited till this AM to give him enough time to hang himself. I'll have something in less than 3 hours, and hopefully a vote by then, or at most a few hours later.

@Meiz I read what my PM said, and thought I understood the role. I was mostly concerned that someone may have blocked me, or somehow obfuscated Rowain, so I didn't want to throw out something that would either end up with a mislynch or with me ont he chopping block instead of scum. Went to the wiki to make sure I got it all right, and was thankfully able to catch my mistake.

As to you not liking my "fancy PR plays", is this something I supposedly have a history of, because I think you might be confusing me with someone else. I posted that because I had to. I asked questions and made statements that needed context or they would be sketchy as hell. Between asking others what they did (commodore) and asking if someone did something to me, failing to give any information about why would be pure scum, and you would be rightfully calling me out for that. Lying about it would hurt town. As to making fun of myself about it, I figured I had a good laugh at myself, no reason others shouldn't too.

[Rowain]

@Meiz

Do you agree with my assessment of Jabbz?

Jabbz whose vote was also not really convincing. But he made so many mistakes that I rather think of him of drowning townie trying hard to stay afloat.