WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Meiz]

@Novice - Once I get my head together yes. TBH I was excited about being able to drop a bomb on Rowain and had been pretty focused there since yesterday. Only waited till this AM to give him enough time to hang himself. I'll have something in less than 3 hours, and hopefully a vote by then, or at most a few hours later.

@Meiz I read what my PM said, and thought I understood the role. I was mostly concerned that someone may have blocked me, or somehow obfuscated Rowain, so I didn't want to throw out something that would either end up with a mislynch or with me ont he chopping block instead of scum. Went to the wiki to make sure I got it all right, and was thankfully able to catch my mistake.

As to you not liking my "fancy PR plays", is this something I supposedly have a history of, because I think you might be confusing me with someone else. I posted that because I had to. I asked questions and made statements that needed context or they would be sketchy as hell. Between asking others what they did (commodore) and asking if someone did something to me, failing to give any information about why would be pure scum, and you would be rightfully calling me out for that. Lying about it would hurt town. As to making fun of myself about it, I figured I had a good laugh at myself, no reason others shouldn't too.

By fancy play I mean that your focus has been solely focused on your claimed role. The only read I can recall from your play was the late hammer on Commodore. Therefore I feel like you've been very neutral on stating your opinions on players.

@Rowain, I think it's a dangerous assumption. I wan't to see Jabbz clearly indicating who he finds suspicious in this game, who he wants to get lynched well before deadline etc. Then I will try to get a better read from him.

[WarriorKnight]

Alright, well I've had a lot of fun with RP so far today (and by no means is the RP over yet) but I can see that I'm going to need to rally the troops in order to get Lewwyn lynched today. So let's get back to where I left off with my last serious push, my final D2 post:

https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753979

I still stand by everything said in this post for everything up to the end of Day 2, we cannot ever forget previous actions of players as that is how scum stay hidden. Please read up on it if you haven't already.

Usually last posts are made at deadline in order to prevent wolves from using nightkills effectively against them, however being cursed with an inconvenient timezone the latest I can make posts before deadline is ~2h before, giving wolves plenty of time to react. And clearly they did not like what they saw, as I am now dead. Who was I damning in my last post? Leewyn and pindicator of course.

But perhaps you completely agree with me that Leewyn is at least a bit suspicious, but are voting for someone else because you find them even more suspicious. In that case I'm going to argue why you should hold your suspicions for now and instead vote Lewwyn, starting with Cyneheard and pindicator:


Cyneheard -

Look, I get it. Cyneheard jumping ship on me late on Day 2 looks very suspicious. But this is currently the only major blemish against him. Some good things he did before then:

1) Gets the pindicator train rolling along with myself Day 1 and stays on until deadline. Not conclusive now, but if pindicator flips scum (v.likely) then this is major credit.

2) Makes good votes against Commodore and Adrien here, along with solid reasoning indicating active scumhunting:
https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753471
https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753603

I'm not saying he is in the clear (I'd say ~30% scum reading atm, compared to the ~60% scum reading just from the one Gaspar post I heckled), but there are far better targets today. Ideally town should wait until pindicator is lynched before coming back to Cyneheard, not only is pindicator far more wolfy right now but pindicator's alignment will give a good read on Cyne's D1 vote, as well as more information on who he votes for today. I officially am pardoning Cyneheard (just today only ) for voting for me yesterday.


pindicator -

I'm not going to argue pindicator isn't a wolf, in fact I'm right with everyone on that and will strongly encourage everyone to lynch him D4 from the sidelines. But Lewwyn is a far more dangerous threat and should absolutely be lynched today over pindicator.

Lewwyn's level of engagement and his silver tongue are too dangerous to be left unchecked, certainly far more than pindicator's. On both D1 and D2, the major train was clearly being driven by Leewyn with pindicator along for the ride. I have serious doubts about pindicator's ability to pull off a train like that without Lewwyn. But the difference today is that as a confirmed villager Lewwyn cannot claim that I am scum as a counter argument, or try to twist anything to that effect to make him seem justified in pursuing his train of suspicions. You will have a far easier time catching pindicator tomorrow rather then trying to catch Lewwyn tomorrow because I am around as confirmed town for today only, hence the push for Lewwyn today.


I'll wait and see where votes are when I wake up before continuing my case.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Checked... Wiki? Hmmm, I do find that suspicious in a custom role game. I also don't like Jabbz's focus on a fancy PR plays at the cost of scum hunting.

Omar ire jump a bit as this beauty.  Omar thought his ability was relatively straight, but still wiki'd his role.  And as someone pointed out earlier, every role so far seems to be straight off the Wiki, so that seems a sensible play by Jabbz.

Not everyone is as familiar with this here game as you.  Omar be willing to chalk this attitude up to RP, but by Omar count, been about a clean century of posts since you bothered to bring any entertainment to this enterprise.  Not everyone got the time, inclination, or frankly skill, to "Meiz their ass off" all the time, as I believe Doc put it way back in D1.

[BRickAstley]

Tally as of post 1165:

Lynch votes
4 votes: Lewwyn/Retsuko (Cyneheard, Meiz, Gold Ergo Sum, novice)
4 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Bobchillingworth, Lewwyn, sunrise089, Rowain)
3 votes: Cyneheard/Elim Garak (Gaspar, pindicator, Alhambram)
1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser)

Voting history:

Retsuko

Uncle Iroh

Retsuko

Elim Garak

Elim Garak

Elim Garak

* Kaiser (claimed Understudy)

Isaac

* pindicator

* Commodore (known Roleblocker)

* Lewwyn (claimed Hider)

* Cyneheard

Pindicator:Lewwyn:and Cyneheard

Henchman 21

Elim Garak

Retsuko

Henchman 21

Henchman 21

Retsuko

Henchman 21

Uncle Iroh

[Meiz]

Checked... Wiki? Hmmm, I do find that suspicious in a custom role game. I also don't like Jabbz's focus on a fancy PR plays at the cost of scum hunting.

Omar ire jump a bit as this beauty.  Omar thought his ability was relatively straight, but still wiki'd his role.  And as someone pointed out earlier, every role so far seems to be straight off the Wiki, so that seems a sensible play by Jabbz.

Not everyone is as familiar with this here game as you.  Omar be willing to chalk this attitude up to RP, but by Omar count, been about a clean century of posts since you bothered to bring any entertainment to this enterprise.  Not everyone got the time, inclination, or frankly skill, to "Meiz their ass off" all the time, as I believe Doc put it way back in D1.

My point was, in a custom role game I would double check my own role and ask Brick for clarification if necessary. But yes there's a possibility town-Jabbz would double check from wiki as well. And I'm not asking to spam the thread full of reads, but I wan't to see his clear take on players before deadline, as his reads on players have been very null so far. This will help everyone to track how his opinions evolve during the game. Coming at the end to vate a vote doesn't tell me much of his alignment, as even now I'm doubtful of his Commodore vote because it comes out of nowhere when Commodore is going down.

And I'm sorry to say but I haven't RP'd my character in a long time  

[Meiz]

Though I get what you're saying GES. I know I was making a same type of point to you earlier. I get too invested and will try to chill.

[Lewwyn]

I'm sorry this will be long. But if you are a villager please read it and don't let your eyes fall out of your skull. You can focus on my commentary between quotes.

Thoughts on Cyneheard:

Day 1 reading with the thrawn and Comm lynchs in mind is interesting. In the beginning of teh day Comm attacks Meiz for lots of RP posts. And SUnrise notes this, but what he also notes is that Cyneheard is doing lots of RP at the same time, but Commodore seems to be ignoring that.

During the day Cyne votes for thrawn and a bit later after pin has voted for thrawn, but before I've started in on thrawn, Cyne posts:

Q/Thrawn - what you hadn't done can be a scummy thing too.

My clearest read is leaning town on sunrise. This makes Pind's tunneling on sunrise even weirder - disagreements happen, but I have a hard time seeing how anyone else would get an honest read other than a town lean on sunrise.

My original vote for thrawn/Q was two-fold:
1) Garak would be VERY suspicious of Q, since he would know who Q is (even if they'd never interacted).
2) Given thrawn's WW47 play in particular, I thought keeping pressure on him would give information. Since I wasn't getting information other than "he's not repeating his WW47 play", I didn't feel any need to jump off the bandwagon, since that's inherently suspicious behavior.

However, a few things that make me wonder now:
1) Thrawn was called out for his WW47 approach so a 180-degree different approach is less suspicious than it is for, say, Gaspar or to a lesser extent Lewwyn.
2) The Bob-in-WW46 note from WK feels spot on to me.

While Rowain is right, that lynching thrawn provides more information than a Jabbz/Alhambram/pick your lurker here lynch (although we are going to need more widespread participation), I think there's better targets but I need to evaluate which one makes the most sense.

I think this post is scummy because he's really setting up the waffle here. Then shortly after appears convinced by Meiz (since this is when Meiz is pressing hard):

Circling back after a quick dive on a few people:

pindicator. He's not been around much, yes, but he's not even trying when he's been here to justify himself. It reads more like he's letting the time be an excuse to play extra-poorly.

If Gaspar is truly a villager who just isn't on his game yet - we'll have a little time to figure that out.

I wake up and Cyne:

Well this feels more like the Lewwyn I'm used to.

I'm not buying his read of thrawn vs pind, but I'm glad he's here to give us something to work with.

I beg:

Well this feels more like the Lewwyn I'm used to.

I'm not buying his read of thrawn vs pind, but I'm glad he's here to give us something to work with.

Buddy, Pal, Friend, Broski.... please

Man I don't remember doing that.

Anyway Cyne stays on Pindi for the rest of the day and never makes a meaningful post the rest of the way. He's on at deadline keeping track and making some comments about the counts so we know he's there, but he's not saying anything one way or the other. It seems like he's done a good job not sticking his nose in anymore.

During the night Cyne posts thoughts on the lynch:

The thing that's hard for me to unpack now is the way the Q/thrawn train moved at the end - was that the village being convinced that thrawn was scum, or the wolves moving to protect their own, or both? If pind is a villager, then I think that really helps clear everyone who moved on thrawn at the end (at least those that were on pind) - why would the wolves move at the deadline to hang a villager? This is also assuming that the wolves didn't know Thrawn was scum.

If the wolves knew Thrawn was scum, then the end of day seems odd to me (I would think the wolves would choose to bus a wolf and get full village cred over bussing a traitor - but wouldn't move at the buzzer to save a villager for a traitor) - and so pind looks very very guilty to me in that scenario.

Why the pind vote?
Pind's contributions fit the "lazy scum" mold for me too well, so that's why I moved onto him (which I'll note for the record was before any serious trains had formed - I was vote #2, and there were a bunch of people in the couple of votes range at the time).

I picked up that thrawn was lost in what he wanted to do, that's why I didn't read him as scum any more and moved off him when I did. Wolves wouldn't have been that lost. At the end, I felt more confident in my read than in Lewwyn's read. Ironically we were sort of both right? I guess?

This is interesting. He picks up that thrawn is village, but I think that would have been hard to do. He certainly didn't make his opinion on thrawn known at the time during the lynch. His post on thrawn before I started in on him was basically thrawn is scum because of this and thrawn is village because of this. He votes for pindi without really going into depth and then basically shuts up until the end of night 1. Throughout the lynch time and during the night, cyne is active with vote tally's tally corrections and a couple of rule reminders such as "remember Brick said he'd post the roles".

Basically when I read all this I read someone who RPs most of the day, votes for thrawn, then gives a fence sit post on thrawn, then moves to pindi and says he's playing poorly, sticks around, making himself known without giving anything of substance until the end of N1. Note also that Cyne says he didn't feel confident in my read so he didn't follow me. Let's remember this for later.

Day 2 starts and really there's nothing from Cyne, he posts a 1 line thought on Gaz leaning town and checks out does not vote or anything for the entire first half of teh day, then comes back with this:

Good morning everyone! Apologies for not being around yesterday (and it's very concerning for me that no one noticed - how many other people are lurking and getting away with it?).

I think trying to untangle Day 1 when there's a pretty good chance of hitting scum is the productive way to go, though, so that means Comm and Pind deserve the most scrutiny. Commodore gets my vote - there's just SO LITTLE content there; the lurking concerns also apply. We talk ABOUT Commodore an awful lot but he's hardly saying anything. Untangling Day 1 + hitting a lurker seems like the smart strategy by far.

Commodore's one-line posting style is making it way too easy for him to do things without good explanations. A Commodore re-read just jumps out with how much of our Commodore discussion doesn't involve him at all.

Other people need some pressure/involvement too (note to Jabbz - Commodore is trying really hard to not be useful, that's the biggest reason why there's been a case on him), but Commodore seems like the most useful and most obvious choice today.

And for anyone (mostly Rowain) wondering about the Gazglum-is-almost-certainly-town argument, think through how Night 1 makes sense if he's a) a wolf or b) a non-wolf scum (Traitor, SK, etc):

There was only 1 nightkill, so in order for Gazglum to not be the wolves' kill, two things would have to happen:
1) The wolves' kill would have to be blocked/delayed - sure, that's possible, BUT:
2) then there needs to be an SK kill - also possible, but then that kill needs to hit a wolf who had very little suspicion on him whatsoever? AND the alignment was hidden by either the killer or by Gazglum's ability (a third party's involvement in this scenario is way too absurd for me to contemplate at this point)?

3) The other possibility, that Gazglum was a vigilante target, that's just pure   . If the only dead person had been, say, Pind or Comm - who could have been a viable vigilante target (and notably a very poor wolf target, as they're either wolves or likely mislynches), then I'd agree with the skepticism. But a vigilante shooting Gazglum is absurdly unlikely. Yes, I know we have had unlikely vigilante targets before, but still, this would be a worse kill than any of superdeath's in WW46, including the one where he shot the same villager the wolves did!

If Gazglum isn't town, and it's really hard for him to be a wolf, then he'd either be:
Traitor #2 - that sounds like an awful setup to me. And again you're saying we hanged a traitor and then the wolves ate the other one? As the first two kills???
Serial Killer - well that would be funny and good for us overall, but makes very little difference on how sincere Gazglum's reads may have been - he would probably want to be a good villager or at least good enough to avoid suspicion. Also less likely as SKs often have some sort of defense.

Gazglum was town. Not knowing his role hurts because it would give us some more setup information, but his arguments should be treated as confirmed-dead-townie arguments. If we lose because we treated a 99.5% read as a 100% read, then so be it.

I reserve the right to take back this logic sequence if Rowain turns up as a dead Vigilante or Serial Killer.

Let's Unpack. The vote on Comm is good, but he only really has one line on Comm basiccally the RP and the not involving himself in discussion bit. Ita not a very hard comdemnation, but then to this point Cyne has had NO strong condemnations really. He's had very few opinions and later he's claimed to have had them after the fact when it doesn't matter anymore. "I felt thrawn was a villager".

The rest of the post is what? night kill discussioin. that's it. That's the bulk of this post and his dicussion doesn't even lead us to any opinions on any alive players! This post is a whole load of nothing!

Next post:

Adrien is definitely rising up my suspicion as well, as he is using the psycho killer strategy (you're talking a lot, but you're not saying anything.)  I actually thought he was lurking until I double-checked and there is nothing there.  He did mention Gaz right before the night-kill, which is probably a point in his favor.

So that's a point in his favor because you'd think the wolves would NOT want to talk about the person they're about to kill? That feels like WIFOM territory, especially if they're expecting him to flip town (which they might have been? I'm layering hypotheticals on hypotheticals here at this point though). I'm not sure that it's much of a point in his favor.

This is not really a strong comment in any direction continuing the trend.
Next:

So, first, Omar tell a tale.  Last night, he hanging out with his partner and the rest of his crew.  Omar's partner completely green at this here game.  Omar tried to educate his partner.  School the pup.  Here was Omar's partner's take-away, "He been holed up in his room all day taking handwritten notes about a monster video game.  He has to read a bunch of stuff and then figure out if he is a villager or a werewolf.  How did I ever end up with such a nerd."  Omar not sure where to start on that one.

At this point, Omar finished with his D1 review, but read next to nothing on D2 yet.  Will catch up D2 after doing some 9-5 business.  

Known Knowns:
1) Omar village.
2) Omar 3-shot Tracker
3) Q scum-adjacent
4) Queen dead
5) CIA targeted no one N1

CIA girl targeted no one.  This seemed out of character because that crazy white lady always have a target, but RP aside, the lack of a target suggests CIA not a villain.

The lack of a target absolutely does not suggest CIA (Carrie/novice, I presume) is not a villain. If we assume 4 villains, only one of them had to do anything and they may or may not have used powers with the other villains. I would consider a lack of a target a null tell, not pro-town.

Your roleclaim is believable, but certainly could be contested (obviously by novice, possibly by others). Brick suggested in the setup he was moving away from unlimited shots, and Q certainly supports that (the Silencer power probably could have been repeated, but might have been annoying; a Serial Killer Traitor is obviously problematic).

Responding to GES, here he's giving out more null tells, more meta discussion. Acctive but not making any tells.

We have our first real post of the day next:

I'm kind of at a loss, there's no one that's distinctly scummy right now. GES's post was fine and if there's another one for D2 it'll be mostly fine. The big posters seem like their usual selves, the two targets from D1 are IMO absolutely fine, so I'm going to look at lower content posters.
Alhambram's misunderstanding of the pindi/com exchange was odd though, and he's the one with the smallest post count. The only question is : would he be lazy enough to jump on such a bad case ?
Jabbz is "not great, not terrible" so far. Content is ok.
Kaiser's big post from D1 was good, and I find his posts pretty good so far.
WK's content is too low. Analysis on 3 people and that's it for D2.
Bob needs more posts, but I don't have scummy vibes on him.

Alhambram for now, closely followed by WK. And now, instead of doing analysis on interactions, I'm going to do some work that cannot wait

Adrien

Very little Adrien has done has filled me with confidence - the pind and thrawn votes without any justification (and "not catching" the vote totals near deadline - either please be more attentive as a hero, or keep what you're doing, villain), this post feels like he's trying to provide cover for some people who need serious cover to avoid the noose and it doesn't sit right. This post just screams scumbuddy behavior to me, and it's not the first time I've gotten that feeling Adrien.

Absolutely fine plan for Pind and Comm? I'd like to see something of an argument behind that, especially when Comm is the leading lynch target.

Jabbz isn't hiding as much as Bob, but his posts have definitely felt worse than Bob's.

To be fair, his Kaiser and Bob assessments seem spot on to me, but I'm not sure that many of us disagree with those. WK's situation, well he's posted since Adrien posted and while I think the low-content criticism was relatively valid, I'm not that nervous about WK at the moment.

Right now my lynch order is:
1. Adrien
2. Comm
3. Jabbz/Pind in some order?
I'd be very unhappy with lynching anyone not on this list.

@WK - yeah, that sounds like the right take for my play. I think most of your takes are about where I am (obvious exception of Adrien, marginally more skeptical of alhambram than you are but I think that moves him from "slight lean" to "dunno". I've generally had trouble with figuring out Rowain's town/wolf lean).

He's glomming onto my quick Adrien vote and making a case against Adrien. Good finally some real scumhunt apparently. Too bad Adrien turned out to be a villager.

Goes after Jabbz, but it's not much more than he feels bad, no why.

Says WK doesn't make him nervous! Agrees with WK about his own play. Says he would be VERY UNHAPPY lynching anyone not on his list. I note that WK is not on his list...

Next:

Jabbz still not voting at all

A policy lynch of Jabbz is very tempting. I think we get less information, and we're slightly less likely to hit scum, but this is getting ridiculous.

Ramp up to jabbz a bit

And then after a lot of posts where I go after WK then Gaspar then WK and I try to rope people in Cyne says:

WarriorKnight - a WK reread makes me more skeptical of him than of Comm right now. He's got the one post of reads and other than that nothing.

@Lewwyn - I absolutely don't get why you're leaning village for Adrien.

@Gaspar - confirmation bias is setting in a lot of us right now, I've been trying to test/reevaluate that myself.

Now A) WK is not on his happy to vote for list. B) he was literally replying to WK earlier and was obviously following and reading him, but now a REREAD makes him suspect of WK? And he's placing this up against Comm, no mention of Adrien. Adrien was his top suspect and Adrien is now voting for WK to. Make note that this pulls WK to 5 votes and Comm at this time is at 6. If one Comm voter swaps to WK then Comm is saved.

I in the moment am surprised and we get this exchange:

WarriorKnight - a WK reread makes me more skeptical of him than of Comm right now. He's got the one post of reads and other than that nothing.

@Lewwyn - I absolutely don't get why you're leaning village for Adrien.

@Gaspar - confirmation bias is setting in a lot of us right now, I've been trying to test/reevaluate that myself.

I feel like you’ve been more silent than I want out of you and you pop up at opportune moments. But I’m surprised you voted for warriorknight.

You're surprised I'm agreeing with you?

Sadly, I'm entering a meeting and will at most be able to vote during it.

So yes as I have done my reread, my assessment of Cyne and my surprise at his vote was warranted. He wasn't suspicious of WK earlier and he wasn't on his list and based on this post you can see he's said very little to put hang his hat on.
Also note that he's going into a meeting and can apparently read and vote but not otherwise post. (I don't know if this is a tell either way but I do think it could be true and it could be a hedge towards giving him a reason to say nothing but be able to vote if he needs to at the end of the day.)

Comm is lynched.
DUring the night:

Nevermind, it's time to take some off time from the game, and I suggest everyone deas the same.

Agreed.

Definitely need to rethink things since I let myself talk myself out of my instincts from yesterday.

Cyneheard ... didn't he have a decisive vote against Commodore day 2?

No, no I did not. I let Lewwyn let me talk myself into a WK vote near the end, after the Adrien train was going nowhere.

So you didn't do it to yourself I did it to you. Honestly I can be persuasive yes. But I was calling you over on Day 1 and you didn't move, Day 2 I called you over and you apparently gave into my siren song? I get it sometimes we talk ourselves out of it, but I don't know what it was you talked yourself out of... voting for Adrien to voting with Adrien. And Adrien was basically your only STRONG read this whole game.

Night ends and:

GG Adrien.

WK, you have to choose which half of your duo is left.

Lewwyn is where I want to start.

I'll be around more this evening.

Quick vote. Cyne started Day 1 with joke votes. Started Day 2 by waiting half the day to vote. Then quick votes out the gate here. He's got some heat and he wants to start the Lewwyn train early.


My read on Cyneheard after all this is fully scum. There is very little evidence left behind, most of his posts are RP>vote tally>night kill discussion>Meta discussion posts. He has very little in the way of substance to nail down on. A couple one line reasons on pin and comm. His biggest read on Adiren some Jabbz pushing and thats about it for 2 days. He never says how I convinced him onto WK. He never says what made him talk himself into voting for WK. He never really gives a reason for it other than I let lewwyn talk me in talking mysellf out of it. He doesn't explain the trail of thought that led him to that decision. He comes after me guns blazing while not having had taken any shots during the rest of the game. He's cornered and he's trying to make up for lost time. I haven't yet gone through his posts yet today, but I think they will be substantially different than the Day 1 and 2 when he no suspicion on him whatsoever.

Cyneheard

I will vote for either pindicator or Cyneheard today.

[Rowain]

Usually last posts are made at deadline in order to prevent wolves from using nightkills effectively against them, however being cursed with an inconvenient timezone the latest I can make posts before deadline is ~2h before, giving wolves plenty of time to react. And clearly they did not like what they saw, as I am now dead. Who was I damning in my last post? Leewyn and pindicator of course.

I have question here. You knew your role, you knew you can post after your death and yet you prefered to make this huge post way before DL. Why?

[Lewwyn]

While rereading, my opinion on Jabbz has improved and I feel much better about him. His posts have way more content than cyneheard's.

[Lewwyn]

Sorry Lewwyn, you're just too good as town to lynch WarriorKnight over Commodore on D2. And you're too good as scum to absolve yourself via good case building today.

And your case on Pindicator is excellent. Glad you've come around on him.

I mean that's just not true. I've proven many times over that as a villager I have made colossal errors in judgement. No one villager is immune. Also I would point out that that lynch was the end of Day 2. It's always been true that I'm truly at my best after 2 days of lynches. Additionally I was definitely feeling myself after the thrawn lynch and I let that cement feelings about comm and pin that I should have let get cemented. Sometime you just get played.