WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Gold Ergo Sum]

 I wan't to see his clear take on players before deadline, as his reads on players have been very null so far. This will help everyone to track how his opinions evolve during the game. Coming at the end to vate a vote doesn't tell me much of his alignment, as even now I'm doubtful of his Commodore vote because it comes out of nowhere when Commodore is going down.

Omar agree with you on this, Skelly, when it comes to Jabbz.  That said, he does often feel more like confused village. 

Let's assume Weeb Fox and Bee-Boy are villains.  Even under that scenario, there has to be one more villain.  Omar assume it is someone on the periphery.  That's partially why Jabbz and Simp drew some focus from Omar.  Based on that, Omar need to give a look over at Jerry! as well.

[Rowain]

Another question for the tree stump

After your long post before DL. Lewwyn wrote a long post where he outlines you are scum (also way too early). Do you think it possible that the combination of those 2 posts were the reason you got killed?

Lewwyn was going to get alot of heat already but with that 2 posts and you dead it increased the chances of him getting lynched considerably.

[Lewwyn]

Let's break down Cyne's first real post today:

Well this should be an interesting Day 3.

Basically, I haven't had the emotional energy to fully engage with this properly/adjust my play, and for that I apologize. It felt weird that I was skating through these days so easily, but it also meant I didn't have to work as hard. Also hadn't had my instincts proven super right or wrong yet (obviously both WK and Adrien were hitting my scumdar), so that hasn't been good either. I'd be disappointed in the rest of the town if I wasn't under significant scrutiny today.

First of all you've made sure to poke your head in and post lots of things that don't give away your feelings one way or the other so it's not like you haven't been active enough. You have pushed Jabbz for low posts, but even Jabbz has more posts than you. Also you start talking here about WK hitting your scumdar but I point you back to your post near the end of Day 2 before you vote for WK:

WK's situation, well he's posted since Adrien posted and while I think the low-content criticism was relatively valid, I'm not that nervous about WK at the moment.

Right now my lynch order is:
1. Adrien
2. Comm
3. Jabbz/Pind in some order?
I'd be very unhappy with lynching anyone not on this list.

@WK - yeah, that sounds like the right take for my play. I think most of your takes are about where I am (obvious exception of Adrien, marginally more skeptical of alhambram than you are but I think that moves him from "slight lean" to "dunno". I've generally had trouble with figuring out Rowain's town/wolf lean).

None of this sounds like you have any beef with WK. In fact you are directly talking at him praising his takes!!!

It doesn't help that I don't remember the last time I rolled village - WW46 was obviously a disaster of a wolf game, and the One Night Werewolf games years ago were where:
1) Lewwyn and I started as wolves, but Lewwyn realized his card had been swapped so he got me killed. Basically nothing I could do there.
2) I robbed Rowain, ended up as the Tanner, and was able to cause JUST enough chaos (with some luck I think) to get myself hanged.

None of this has anything to do with this game.

Roleclaim:
3-Shot Watcher.

Unfortunately neither of the people I watched had anyone visit them (Sunrise N1, GES N2), so there's not much I can use for that to clear me.

If we end up hanging me, do NOT use that as clearance for people playing similarly to me (semi-lurking, or the WK voters are the heuristics I'm mostly referring to here I think).

This role claim is very easy to make. Like Tracker we have had scum watchers before and I think it's a pretty null tell.

This sequence at the end of day 2 feels super weird to me:

@cynheard you going to sit on adrien? Come on over the waters warmer...

Sure, this seemed reasonable enough - especially after his Day 1 pleading that didn't convince me on thrawn.

WarriorKnight - a WK reread makes me more skeptical of him than of Comm right now. He's got the one post of reads and other than that nothing.

@Lewwyn - I absolutely don't get why you're leaning village for Adrien.

@Gaspar - confirmation bias is setting in a lot of us right now, I've been trying to test/reevaluate that myself.

I feel like you’ve been more silent than I want out of you and you pop up at opportune moments. But I’m surprised you voted for warriorknight.

But then after I follow Lewwyn, Lewwyn was asking me to join him on WK, and then is surprised that I actually follow through???

That just struck me as super strange - like he's surprised a villager is playing just like Wolf Lewwyn. This feels like an Among Us 50/50 situation, but confirmations are on.

I'm going to take some time thinking/working through the rest of us, but this seemed like a good place to start.

I've explained this in my long post of Cyne's day 1 and 2. But again I was surprised. And given everything I've pointed out now about his previously expressed feelings on WK, lynch list (without WK on it) and his feelings on Adiren how can you be surprised that I was surprised you fell in with me and voted for WK? Nothing you had done previously matched up with that.

All in all I see "I wasn't expecting this", "WK was scummy", "It's not my fault", "Null Role Claim", "Lewwyn iis scum because he is surprised I didi something all of my previous play had hinted at me NOT doing."

Where's the case on me!? WHAT?

[Lewwyn]

Man Cyne is just following modus operandi. He hasn't really made a case against me and is letting everyone else do the heavy lifting against me. I'm looking at the next posts next.

[Lewwyn]

All right let's do this.

Meta assumption: I think it’s more likely we have 4 villains than 5. 5 + traitor sounds absolutely brutal for the village, especially with the traitor’s powers being pretty good.

Back to meta here.

I think I’ve made my Lewwyn feelings pretty clear.

Really? Because it feels like you have one section of one post that says you think I'm scum because I was surprised you followed me. That and you voted for me. And you blame me for talking yourself into voting for WK. And you've blamed WK for pinging your scumdar. Seems like you haven't really made it clear.

Pind:

WK’s death note covers Pind pretty well. https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753979 

Sure let's let the confirmed villager's post make the case for you. Again this doesn't really give us any insight into what YOU think. Additionally, I know for a fact WK is wrong about me. Just being a villager doesn't make you right. Also WK is posting about Pin and me together. You haven't actually said anything about pin BY HIMSELF. What IS your take on him by yourself? You've left yourself a lot of leeway here with this to say when I die and flip blue that Oh WK was wrong about Lewwyn he must be wrong about pin too.

Jabbz:
His vote Day 2 seems to be the key to making sure that Commodore hanged. If Lewwyn ends up town, very likely to re-evaluate Day 2, but “Lewwyn protecting his roleblocker scumbuddy twice” best fits this.

A) I wouldn't say its the key to making him hang, but B) from a wolf perspective with more knowledge about what all was happening then yes it really may have seemed that way to you. A bit of a slip there Cyne. And wait, if I end up town Jabbz is more suspect? Setting up dominoes I see. Dominoes that don't even make sense because if I'm town how does that have any effect of Jabbz. Either he was sealing Comms fate or he was getting his bus on. My role doesn't effect that.

Kaiser:
So he had time, RL intervened, so now he doesn’t? His vote on Commodore (or his 5-minutes-earlier vote on Adrien) really doesn’t get much credit, as Commodore was clearly hanging. He's been methodically collecting information, which is great if the scum are messing up in predictable ways, but absolutely TERRIBLE if they're not. Too many Kaiser-style players means that a wolf bus is absolutely going to be way too effective, but I don't think the rest of us are as committed to the work to make that a meta problem. Likely villager.

I disagree with the assessment that Kaiser is likely villager. You are literally saying that its terrible if he's collecting info if Wolves are being predictable. but that doesn't have any bearing on whether he's a wolf himself. You assume his innocence here without giving a real reason why. In fact it feels more like you start with having suspicions on him and then assume he's village and that he's hurting the village. I can't tell what you are really trying to do because youu're insinuating he's scum, then assuming village, and attacking his village playstyle. If you turn up scum I can't tell what your read actually is. And I think that's the point.

Rowain:
Vig claim seems pretty confirmed to me. If he’s lying, then Kaiser’s hypothesis that the Wolves inherited the Traitor’s powers has to be true and they poisoned someone N1. But then - why WK OR Adrien? That doesn't make sense to me, especially since WK probably didn't make himself a high priority target until his Day 2/Night 2 (definitely kicking myself for not switching to Watching WK after that vote). So Rowain is about as confirmed as it gets. The odds of there being ZERO vigilantes is ~0, although it is possible that there are two if they’re both one-shot, so if someone else had a vigilante power they might not counterclaim (although I’d have thought N2 would’ve been a decent night to take a Vig shot). If Rowain is lying, we will have time to figure it out.

Yeah sure Rowain is as confirmed as it gets. I agree.

Bob:
If he keeps on living and hiding from the shadows, he’s going to start to shoot up my suspect list – this could be similar to Charriu in WW46 who was basically only found out by process of elimination. But inclined to lean villager who’s just not able to spend the time this game is requiring.

Is he in the shadows? He hasn't posted much but He's posted more, much more than you in terms of actual pin downable content.

I don't have the brainspace to tackle a more complicated case like Gaspar right now.

Convenient if you want to leave no trail about whether he's good or bad when you hang.

Yup. Scummy.

[Lewwyn]

@Cyneheard re: 1087 - why did you claim? Did I miss where someone asked you to? Or was it just due to general pressure?

@Cyneheard re: 1105 - I don’t think Rowain inherited the traitor’s powers and then fake-claimed vig after poisoning Adrien a day earlier. I think it’s more likely no one has inherited any powers this game I think more likely than either of those is wolf Rowain gave himself great cover for a night kill. Most likely though of course is that he’s a town vig.

1087: General pressure. 

1105: The train of thought of "what if I'm wrong" just kept leaving the station. And I think the point that I was (poorly) trying to make was that the whole thing just didn't make sense for him to be anything but the town vig.

Pind:

I honestly don't know why I let you off the hook Day 2. I didn't process who else I was voting with when I jumped onto WK, and that was a mistake.

Responding to questions fine.

The part here about why you voted for WK even though Pin and Adrien AND COMM were all on WK makes it seem like you were surprised you voted for him. You didn't process it and yet you were able to respond when I said I was surprised you voted for WK. I mean come on. Your suspect list had Adrien, Pin and comm, you had previously voted for Pin, adrien and Comm. And now you joined all three onto WK. And you think I"M SUSPICIOUS because I was SURPRISED you voted for WK?

COME ON!

[Lewwyn]

Cyneheard, I think there were questions pointed to you on what went through your head at the end of D2. What made you suspect WK, and trust Lewwyn while dropping your initial read of Commodore is scummy? I have to say the comment of not thinking who was voting WK sounds strange to me, as it was Commodore (who you suspected initially) and AdrienIer (who you also suspected earlier).

I don't know. I rushed during my lunch break and messed up.

WK had felt like a stream of RP that had gone nowhere, and I let that be enough.

This defense just doesn't cut it for me at all given your earlier post once again:

Very little Adrien has done has filled me with confidence - the pind and thrawn votes without any justification (and "not catching" the vote totals near deadline - either please be more attentive as a hero, or keep what you're doing, villain), this post feels like he's trying to provide cover for some people who need serious cover to avoid the noose and it doesn't sit right. This post just screams scumbuddy behavior to me, and it's not the first time I've gotten that feeling Adrien.

Absolutely fine plan for Pind and Comm? I'd like to see something of an argument behind that, especially when Comm is the leading lynch target.

Jabbz isn't hiding as much as Bob, but his posts have definitely felt worse than Bob's.

To be fair, his Kaiser and Bob assessments seem spot on to me, but I'm not sure that many of us disagree with those. WK's situation, well he's posted since Adrien posted and while I think the low-content criticism was relatively valid, I'm not that nervous about WK at the moment.

Right now my lynch order is:
1. Adrien
2. Comm
3. Jabbz/Pind in some order?
I'd be very unhappy with lynching anyone not on this list.

@WK - yeah, that sounds like the right take for my play. I think most of your takes are about where I am (obvious exception of Adrien, marginally more skeptical of alhambram than you are but I think that moves him from "slight lean" to "dunno". I've generally had trouble with figuring out Rowain's town/wolf lean).

Bolding is my emphasis. I'm hammering this post because you LITERALLY responded directly to WK and AGREED with his takes. So you admit that A) he had takes, B) that they were good and not just a stream of RP as you now claim, C) that youwere aware of WK's posts.

I also point out that when you voted for WK:

WarriorKnight - a WK reread makes me more skeptical of him than of Comm right now. He's got the one post of reads and other than that nothing.

You say you reread him. You are claiming when you voted for him that you reread him and that you were now more skeptical of him than Comm. So if you reread him again then why did you not agree with his takes again after only hours before agreeing with his takes? How can you say now that "WK felt like a stream of RP that led to no where?"

Seems a bit contradictory and seems like lying.

[pindicator]

Bigger picture thoughts, because I didn't expect Lewwyn to follow Gaspar and I on Cyneheard if he was scum defending his buddy, I expected him to hammer away at me instead.  If Lewwyn and Cyneheard are scum team together then why would Cyneheard be the bus?  Shouldn't Lewwyn be the one bussed in that scenario?  Instead Lewwyn is voting Cyneheard and Cyneheard voting Lewwyn - okay that part is consistent with a team trying to cast mutual doubt.  However I'm finding it doubtful that Lewwyn & Cyneheard are on a team based on this latest exchange.

So if Lewwyn isn't defending Cyneheard then there's only 1 scum in the current group of vote-getters at most.  (Yeah, you all won't believe I'm town until I flip but I'm town, so at least make a mental note to come back to this analysis later.)

Let's steal from Bobchillingworth a little bit here:

Day 2 WarriorKnight Voters

* pindicator
* Commodore (known Roleblocker)
* Lewwyn (claimed Hider)
* AdrienIer
* Cyneheard



Some may find this obvious, or trite, but George has to STICK WITH HIS GUNS here and say that Pindicator, Lewwyn, and Cyneheard are all suspicious for voting for a (now) known villager, in the main wagon opposed to lynching (also now) known scum Commodore!  Are they all scum??  No!  Or, probably not!  That would not be likely at all! If it was, I would be freaking out right now, Jerry!  Which I'm clearly not!  But anyway, at least one of them is very likely scum.  Maybe two!  


Day 2 AdrienIer Voters

... Wait, this was apparently only me?  George did not actually realize this until going back at Brick's tally to write this post.  Well, I wasn't around for like the last eight hours of the day- it's a legitimate excuse, Jerry!  Although now I'm getting really annoyed that there were free train rides and I wasn't around to grab a seat!  This ALWAYS happens to me, Jerry!  It's a conspiracy!  

But anyway, I voted for a villager.  Who Rowain then apparently shot.  Sorry, Adrien!  



So I still need to vote for someone- based on his Day 2 votes, and current "woe is me" attitude, I'm voting for Pindicator right now.  That's right, Jerry!

But Lew, Cyne, and Kaiser are all suspicious as well!  Also, though it got ZERO TRACTION before, since Commodore has now been CONFIRMED FOR SCUM, if anyone wants thinks my theory of Omar / Commodore "megapost" collusion wasn't COMPLETELY INSANE then maybe it's worth revisiting!

So we know AdrienIer is town.  I'm town.  If Lewwyn and Cyneheard aren't a scum pair then there is at most 1 scum on WarriorKnight outside of Commodore.

How about people who voted for WarriorKnight or otherwise voted on AdrienIer that could otherwise save Commodore?

I'm going to steal from Alhambram's voter recap post last night:

Analysis day 2 vote

Let’s do same as day 1, in depth analysis from moment that Lewwyn attempts Warriorknight train.
Starting with beginning of day 2 till post #728

Rowain started Commodore train with Meiz and Gaspar almost instantly joining. Meanwhille 4 players who didn’t vote for either Pindicator or thrawn got prodded around by others or each others. Kaiser voted for Rowain who seemed irked by i tand voted for Kaiser together with Novice (again!).
Commodore meanwhile voted for GES and quess who joined him: Lewwyn and Pindicator putting votes for GES at 4, 4th being AdrienIer for prodding reasons. Then Commodore highfived Pindicator. It caused me to park my vote at Commodore, I decided if Commodore would show some towny vibes, or someone is even more scummy I might switch vote. But that didn’t happen, so I kept vote at Commodore till very end, Meiz and Gaspar also kept their vote till end. Also notable when I cast vote at Commodore, Lewwyn started to poke me, seeminly to protect Commodore and Pindicator.
Also interesting there was one more person who did complain about me calling out Commodore and Pindicator handfive, that was AdrienIer. And I am going talk about him more later at conclusions of day 2, but just for now, check all three votes of day 1, guess who always voted same as AdrienIer (answer is Commodore). Adrienler calling out me caused two people to vote for him which one of them was Lewwyn. But as soon red ink of Lewwyn’s vote for AdrienIer has yet to dry, he noticed a discrepancy in Warriorknight’s posts which I also did feel bit odd when rereading very fast through thread before deadline. Warriorknight did post response after I went to sleep and then to work early, therefore I would miss out unfolding drama till last hour.

Lynch votes before Lewwyn attempts Warriorknight train with post #728
4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, WarriorKnight)
2 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser, Commodore)
2 votes: Kaiser/Isaac (Rowain, novice)
2 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Cyneheard, Lewwyn)
1 votes: Alhambram/Homer Simpson (AdrienIer)
1 votes: Gold Ergo Sum/Omar Little (pindicator)
1 votes: novice/Carrie Mathison (Bobchillingworth)


Lewwyn instead asking in a politely way for explanation starts hammer down Warriorknight very hard. And guess about who Warriorknight did post? Yes again Commodore and Pindicator. Soon as Lewwyn cast vote, Pindicator followed him (again!). Also interesting is one who followed suit: AdrienIer which move baffled others and got piled up by GES, Bob, Rowain and Warriorknight after AdrienIer’s post #777. At that moment AdrienIer got most votes, almost seem that Commodore/Pindicator duo might escape again. But then Sunrise and Novice moved upon Commodore. Warriorknight then decides that AdrienIer is lesser of two evils and swings back to Commodore. Then AdrienIer and Lewwyn suddenly switch to Gaspar while Commodore jump to Warriorknight. Lewwyn remarks that he wants vote for Gaspar and Warriorknight alone, no mention of either Commodore and Pindicator (post #813). But afterwards they concludes that Warriorknight has best lynch chances and both Lewwyn and AdrienIer swings back to Warriorknight. Meanwhile Cyneheard decided to join Warriorknight train, he however still distrusts AdrienIer and calls out Lewwyn for trusting AdreinIer as townie. With half hour to go tally is as follows.

Lynch votes with half hour before deadline
6 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise089, novice, WarriorKnight)
5 votes: WarriorKnight/Statler & Waldorf (pindicator, Commodore, Lewwyn, AdrienIer, Cyneheard)
3 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Gold Ergo Sum, Bobchillingworth, Rowain)
1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser)

Two notable things about this vote: firstly is Kaiser who promised answers but came so late and parked vote upon Rowain almost since beginning of day 2. He can make difference if he shows up.
Secondly more interesting Jabbz has yet to vote and he promises to do last minute.
And in half hour those two did show up. Kaiser spent so many time writing stuffs that he decided casting vote for AdrienIer due looking most supicious of people that he invesitaged so far.
Jabbz did show up with interesting question about what Commodore did last night. Commodore answered that he did nothing, Lewwyn pressed further which ability which Commodore answered as commuter. Finally Jabbz did cast vote upon Commodore with some factual errors as Sunrise and Meiz pointed out. And to wrap up GES, Rowain and Kaiser switched to Commodore.

Final Result Lynch votes
10 votes: Commodore/Flipper  (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise089, novice, WarriorKnight, Jabbz, Gold Ergo Sum, Rowain, Kaiser)
5 votes: WarriorKnight/Statler & Waldorf (pindicator, Commodore, Lewwyn, AdrienIer, Cyneheard)
1 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Bobchillingworth)

Though I'm not taking his analysis because he has to suspect me because he isn't me.  I know Lewwyn isn't protecting me and it sure looks like he isn't trying to save Cyneheard like my first thought was when he voted for me.  However, he could still be playing me as a patsy and Cyneheard could be the mislynch target and then tomorrow we get to me or he hopes to take me next ... but his stuff sure looks town today to me.  He isn't stopping yet.

I agree with Rowain's thoughts that scum could have bussed Commodore.  In fact, I think that it's looking more and more likely that they may not have come roaring out of the gates to lynch him day 2, they probably decided to safely put early votes on him and see which way the wind was blowing.  When it became obvious that Commodore was going to get heat regardless of the outcome then it became more practical to set up mislynches for following days.  Commodore, I believe, even played along.  His content fell off the map during day 2.  I should have seen it, but... anyway, I should have listened to the "what if" voice that was noticing Commodore not participating much in the second half of day 2.  I got blinded to him.

I don't put it out of question that there was an early scum vote on Commodore that just stayed there.  Actually, looking back I think Alhambram makes sense there.  Gaspar has looked town to me.  Meiz, though insufferable, also sounds town.  WarriorKnight we know is town.  I think I would actually give more town points to the sunrise and novice votes since they pushed Commodore back into the lead over AdrienIer rather than some others.  Jabbz is probably town.  Gold Ergo Sum has been resonating well with me since his day 2 thesis paper.  Rowain made a very pro-town shot on AdrienIer last night, and he is also the only other person who is smartly looking at this possibility that there were scum bussing Commodore.

I have to give scum points to Bobchillingworth, regardless of time zones.  Kaiser does not look good here.  It woudl be really nice if Cyneheard ends up being scum because if he is not then you have to really start looking at Alhambram, or Meiz and Gaspar as some kind of uber-wolf, but I don't think town is going to win if Meiz or Gaspar is a wolf.  Similarly, if Rowain pulled off a fake vig claim as scum I'm just going to tip my hat and be jealous that I couldn't do it like he could.  I've strayed too far into WIFOM territory here.

I'll add that the night kills are really telling to me of someone who is veteran to the RB meta.  They are doing a great job of picking off people are strong town players (Gazglum N1) or someone who could be seen as confirmed town but not an obvious target (WarriroKnight N2).  In fact, the WarriorKnight on N2 seems to reinforce to me that they are trying to set up possibly ALL voters of WarriorKnight.

Cyneheard + BobChillingworth + Kaiser?  Seems too simple.  Alhambram then?  Gaspar for not wanting to even entertain Commodore being bussed?  Back into WIFOM territory...


And one more "screw you, Meiz" for thinking that i have to be scum for not keeping 15 reads up-to-date in my head at every possible moment, especially in a game where someone I was ardently defending turned up scum.  It must be nice living in a world where you never even entertain the possibility that you're wrong.


Question for the Old Man, since I trust him the most right now:  who's your most suspicious Commodore voter?

[pindicator]

Lewwyn, got any big picture thoughts?

[Jabbz]

I've got a list that is sadly underdeveloped, but I wanted to meet my 3ish hour timeline for some suspicions. Most of my non-neutral leans still need to be read into depth more, but that's still a struggle for me right now, so you'll get what you get sadly. Sorry for not making this easier.

Town Leans
Novice: He has felt pretty active most of the game. He's poked a lot of people and elicited some good analysis. I need to go back and read through him, especially his votes, but for now he seems reasonably town leaning.

GES: I've really liked the RP style, but I think he feels engaged in scum hunting pretty regularly. Same leaning as Novice.

Rowain: Probably town. I've got a terrible vision in my head of scum having a second kill and him using it while claiming vig. That's most likely due to my thoughts on how my ability worked though. He was one of the biggest pressers on Commodore I think, and I know he was pretty aggressive with me when I was questioning the case against the fish. Barring my paranoia, hes almost certainly town. Either that or he needs a wheelbarrow to carry around his balls. One or the other.

No real reads on Cyneheard, Bob, Gaspar, Pindicator, Alhambram, Kaiser, Sunrise. Nothing pushes me one way or the other. Given that this day seems to have Cyneheard and Pindi involved as potential swingers, they will be the on the listof people  I'm going to get a better read on today.

Slight scum leans.

Lewwyn: His defense here is pretty aggressive, and I'm not a huge fan of his block quotes. Might just be what they do to my eyes. Either way he is coming across less as town worried we're lynching the wrong person and more scum worried about being outed. This is all based on general tone etc. however, so I'll be reading into him along with Cyne and Pindi.

Meiz: I dont know what it is, but something feels off about his interaction through the game. I honestly can't pin it down other than I'm irritated with him and don't really know why. Won't be looking into that more today unless he somehow moves way up the list.

If I had to make a vote right now, I would lean towards Lewwyn though only because my general possible scum vibe combined with confirmed town making arguments against him. I'll start my readthrough on him and get where I can.