WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[pindicator]

Does anybody else find it odd that we have a day vig and a night vig?

[pindicator]

I mean, that just came to me after reading Jabbz. And it is funny that he's doing exactly the same claim as me when I was SK. If you have to make me choose between who's vig claim is more believable I think I have to go with Meiz because that seems risky as hell for a wolf to claim after we've had a night vig come out. It's also easy enough for Meiz to prove it where now we're just taking Rowain at his word and that AdrienIer was a good target. But if the idea was to set up the rest of the WarriorKnight voters...

One thing I remember from being teamed up with Rowain as scum way back when: he told me Lewwyn is a great town to keep around later into a game because if he gets town in his sights then he can do a lot of your work for you.

[Alhambram]

Here I am again, I shall read everthing after post where Warriorknight declares that he is going haunt this thread for entire day 3.

[pindicator]

Meiz: I dont know what it is, but something feels off about his interaction through the game. I honestly can't pin it down other than I'm irritated with him and don't really know why. Won't be looking into that more today unless he somehow moves way up the list.

By the way Jabbz, this means so much to have someone else see it too. Even if we're both just butting heads against his style, my sanity needed to hear that it isn't just me.

[Lewwyn]

Lewwyn, got any big picture thoughts?

I think my thoughts to begin the day were my mostly my reevaluation of everyone and contained a lot of big picture thoughts. I still have to really read you more. I've already posted about that specific exchange but I haven't really focused on you specifically through Day 1. I do think Cyneheard is scum now that I've completed my read of him and I'm more sure of him than anything else at the moment.

Big picture I think Cyne, you and Kaiser could be. If it is not you I lean towards Cyne Kaiser and I'm not sure yet. GES makes sense, but I'm sure about Cyne and I don't think wolves will have watcher and tracker if they're not lying. Also Adiren's death left us with a motion detector role which is not that dissimilar to watcher, its different but not much different. And then we have beholder as well which is also similar to motion detector and watcher? That also makes me wonder about jabbz.

But look all that role shit doesn't mean anything until someone makes a claim catching someone else in a lie. If I live I promise to hide tonight and we'll see if what the roles pick up. Someone more role inclined can figure it out. I'm just going to stick with trying to read people.

[Lewwyn]

No real reads on Cyneheard, Bob, Gaspar, Pindicator, Alhambram, Kaiser, Sunrise. Nothing pushes me one way or the other. Given that this day seems to have Cyneheard and Pindi involved as potential swingers, they will be the on the listof people  I'm going to get a better read on today.

Slight scum leans.

Lewwyn: His defense here is pretty aggressive, and I'm not a huge fan of his block quotes. Might just be what they do to my eyes. Either way he is coming across less as town worried we're lynching the wrong person and more scum worried about being outed. This is all based on general tone etc. however, so I'll be reading into him along with Cyne and Pindi.

Please read my posts on Cyneheard. It's clear you haven't yet. I understand about your eyes but the analysis is in there and I think its pretty conclusive. Also I haven't been defending today, I defended earlier at night before the day so I could spend today focused on hunting and that's what I'm doing.

[BRickAstley]

GM Memo

I have been informed by a player of an out of game communication about this game that they were involved in on Day 2. I have investigated the communication and talked to the players involved, and have determined that the integrity of the game has not been substantially compromised, so no public penalties are appropriate for any party at this time. To preserve the fairness of the game, I will not disclose further details, and I have also instructed the players involved not to disclose details in this thread either.

So why am I making a point to post this then? I am posting this here as a reminder, out-of-game communication about the game is strictly prohibited, and if you are ever in doubt if a message crosses the line, do not send it. Between the involved parties and myself this took a few man-hours to review and for me to come to a decision, so it is a big strain. Aside from the obvious fact that it is against the rules.

EDIT: If you have any concerns or questions you may PM me

[pindicator]

Lewwyn, got any big picture thoughts?

I think my thoughts to begin the day were my mostly my reevaluation of everyone and contained a lot of big picture thoughts. I still have to really read you more. I've already posted about that specific exchange but I haven't really focused on you specifically through Day 1. I do think Cyneheard is scum now that I've completed my read of him and I'm more sure of him than anything else at the moment.

Big picture I think Cyne, you and Kaiser could be. If it is not you I lean towards Cyne Kaiser and I'm not sure yet. GES makes sense, but I'm sure about Cyne and I don't think wolves will have watcher and tracker if they're not lying. Also Adiren's death left us with a motion detector role which is not that dissimilar to watcher, its different but not much different. And then we have beholder as well which is also similar to motion detector and watcher? That also makes me wonder about jabbz.

But look all that role shit doesn't mean anything until someone makes a claim catching someone else in a lie. If I live I promise to hide tonight and we'll see if what the roles pick up. Someone more role inclined can figure it out. I'm just going to stick with trying to read people.

Yeah, I agree on Cyneheard looking scummy. I haven't liked his answers today either. But now that I'm wondering about Rowain's role claim, his post about a previous WW game where they bussed a scum mate hard to cruise to a win feels a little too on the nose. I know I just was claiming him as my most town-favored person but the role claims suddenly stand out to me.

And what about us supposedly having both a day vig and night vig? I'm not role-inclined either but doesn't that seem a bit excessive?



Let's go for a meta approach. What's the best lynch today for unraveling this mess of WarriorKnight voters? Because I'm starting to be convinced that one of us is scum ... at most. Sure, my ego wants to say you've played me as a patsy but you look like town Lewwyn to me. You look like you're actively digging around. So instead of leaving the game in a situation where we just lynch WarriorKnight voters ad infinitum who is the best way to untangle? I would think you can't say Cyneheard and I are on a team based on day 1, but that's really for other people to ascertain. I'm not believing you and Cyneheard are on a team. And I know nobody outside you, I, and the scum team knows that we aren't scum together. So how do we untangle this with the least deaths? Is it lynching me? I'll bite that bullet if me popping blue clears enough people.

Okay, that's a question for Meiz, Gaspar, Novice, & Sunrise I think: of the 3 on the table now, who would be cleared if they show up as town/scum?

Otherwise I might want to lynch Rowain because of that role power claim...

[Lewwyn]

Pin I'm not scum and I'm not in a scum thread with you, so it necessitates that all of our communication happen here, but I am a bit concerned with how much you're trying to work with me given the whole "Lew and Pin are a team" thing. Even if we are both voting for Cyne.  

Why are you going meta approach? It's clear to me I can't determine what scum would do only what is possible. Could Comm and Cyne be the only scum on WK and WK is killed to frame me and you? Yes. Is it possible you are scum along with Cyne and Comm? From my perspective sure. I don't think you can say that you and cyne are not a team based on day 1. In the end it's unlikely all the wolves were on thrawn, though I do think that Cyne's vote on you was early and right in the middle of the bandwagon enough that you could be innocent. Reading cyne made me sure he was scum and less certain of you I admit.

[Kaiser]

About Lewwyn 2 reasons
Shooting Lewwyn would rob the town of todays discussion. His defending and who jumps where and when will prove alot more informative then trying to lynch Adrien.
But far more importantly: No matter if Lewwyn is town or scum I thought it well possible that scum has a redirector role like in WW46 and might redirect any action from Lewwyn to for example Meiz.

About pindicator: Honestly he was equally high on my list. ( I even considered shooting one of pindi,  commodore and Kaiser on Night 1 but in the end decided it better to hold my fire and see how day 2 plays out.)  This night I decided to take the shot.  I did a lot of rereading I still don't like Adriens switch to thrawn with the expression he had not realized that a thrawn-train had started when in reality said train had exactly 3 votes 2 of which had been on for some time already. All in all I went with whom I voted for on Day 2.

Thank you for your reasoning on Lewwyn, I can follow it but find it surprising that you decided for Adrian above pindicator as you stated #529 and later that you were quite interested into the information from a commodore or pindicator lynch, actually at the beginning you even preferred lynching pindicator first. 

I wonder though why I was on your suspect list of Day1 for a potential vig kill though? Day 1 you mentioned me exactly 3 times:
- #105 for Bob and me switching to Jabbz in quick succession
- #150 checking in if Jabbz and me want to stay on Jabbz
- #275 asking Meiz on his opinion on me

I had asked questions in your direction before and shortly after had posted my suspicion on you beeing non-commital so far. 
I also find you voting commodore #261, for no given reason besides following Novice, suspicious. This was  followed up by a question in#286 which you did not follow up on Day1.

So coming from your above post, your main suspects Day1 were Pindicator, Commodore, Kaiser (and thrawn who you finally voted). Checking your posts on these people returns:
- thrawn
   - #93 thrawn push vote
   - #223 thanking thrawn for his summary as it will help leaving a trail (other people were commenting on this summary to be shallow leaving no trail)
   - #235 explaining your argument from #223 to thrawn
   - #398 final vote of the day for you on thrawn quoting Lewwyn
- Pindicator
  - #215 pindicator is wishy-washy with his opinion
  - #389 asks pindi why Gaspar looks scummy
- Commodore
  - #261 no reasons given
- Kaiser see above, no reason given for being scummy, just some questions

I think it is awfully convenient to state now that you were on Commodore on Day1, but I still lack your reason for the vote at that point in time. Care to enlighten me?
And I really would like to know why you had me among your top4 on Day1 to consider your vig kill?

Rowain that was a good shot regardless of outcome.  Kind of wish you had used it on me instead.

While I take you up on that tea offer, how possible is it that Comm was bussed hard day 2?

I find it hard to believe that scum would happily bus a roleblocker in a role-heavy game. Of course exprience says on the 10 votes on C in the end there will be 1 scum at least.

the 10 voters:  Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise089, novice, WarriorKnight, Jabbz, Gold Ergo Sum, Rowain, Kaiser

Of those my own vote and Kaiser come so late they didn't matter in the lynch but I do believe Kaisers story and I know my role. Meiz and Gaspar have been on him quite some time Gaspar already on Day1
Alhambram and sunrise were on it early. WK is town. Leaves GES, Jabbz and novice. From those I had GES and novice in my townbook.  Jabbz whose vote was also not really convincing. But he made so many mistakes that I rather think of him of drowning townie trying hard to stay afloat.

So I wouldn't be surprised to have an error in there. If so then I would guess novice or GES but I don't see it.

Another post I am griping with, nearly everyone on this, even me, is getting away quite good, for me this is post is very non-commital.
I also wonder why you are are not taking the next step here, assuming your theory, this would mean that there should have been 3 scum in the remaining 6 players, that would be interesting to look at, right?
I personally believe that in the end there were likely 2-3 wolves on commodore in order to use exactly your reasoning for getting town credit. Commodore was on the sinking boat already all day long and this way the wolves could try to at least benefit from his death.
My best guess would be Rowain, Novice and then I need to take a closer look. I will do so tomorrow.

Highlighting this part. Kaiser's reasoning for revealing his power is because he thinks that scum team might have someone who has similar power.
Also he claim gained this power day 2 soon Gazglum died.

I think that I am starting become extremely very paranoid. IF Kaiser is right, then it would mean someone might gained Thrawn's powers at night 1.
IF that person used posion power at night 1, then it lights different shed upon second death of night 2.

I don't know what to think about it, probably I am reading too much into player powers. Maybe I should forget it and stick to normal player reading instead role reading.

I also liked Kaiser's take of his own gamestyle not working out, and planning to change that. That's one part of his game that I've identified, coming too late behind from the game events & his reads. So I do like that he has recognized the issue himself and planned on changing the style. I think GES has the same type of issue, which is why I've prompted him couple of times to start contributing more on the recent events.

Yeah I agree with Meiz's latest spam.

Alhambram looks like he's trying earnestly, which is good.  

But I'm surprised folks are so sanguine about the Kaiser claim.  Like I said, it reads more like scum power than town power to me.  Not that I want to get into metagaming but it just seems fishy.  Also, why claim overnight, surely he was in no danger of being night-killed as he was absent for all of Day 2 and on top of that, had a fair amount of suspicion.  IDK, just saying I'm FAR from clearing him.

Well it looks like I was at least on Rowain's vig to shoot list Day1, seems I was not worried for nothing
While I agree that I was an unlikely kill, I wanted to make sure for three reasons that people knew about my role:
 - so people did know Gazglums alignment when I die
 - so people did know what my Backup role means and that there might be a scum backup as well
 - I am not sure what information you will get if/when I die, I assume it will be my role PM but it could also have been Gazglums and so you have both information.

No need to clear me for it anyway, I have not achieved any results yet with my role and it does not look to be very important either. Important for me was that you have all the information available you need to take away from my death that I was able to provide from it.

Kaiser is interesting. Back up hero is a good and interesting role. I think the role makes sense. But you know what I've realized. What if Kaiser killed Gazglum and stole his role? What if his ability is like role steal and he kills and takes away the information? Gazglum WAS the first death, but also his role was hidden. Was it hidden by the kill or by Kaiser's ability either as village or scum? The interaction here seems real, something is hinky. Killing and not having the role revealed didn't do that much, but maybe its part of the scum ability. Maybe I'm reading too much into the role, but earlier today I was willing to clear Kaiser based on his role and knowledge of Gazglum, but now I'm not so sure at all. Without the role claim I would have definitely considered him one of my top suspects as I said before Night deadline.

If I understand you here correctly, you imply that my role could have been a Backup killing and hiding the target role, correct?
Either as Village or Scum?
Why would a Villager use such a role on Day1?
So Kaiser has to be scum, right?

I stated that earlier, in my opinion and with my privileged knowledge about my and Gazglum's roles, the only reason to use the hide target alignment and role ability at that point in time is to use this to misdirect later. I will check if you or other used this before for misdirection I remember seing people do so and need to research who did when.

Btw, why was my role claim the reason I lowered in your suspicion?