WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[sunrise089]

@Pindicator 1190 - I’m not sure ‘who would be cleared if I flip town’ is that useful - if you flip town YOU’RE cleared but your reads on others don’t magically become correct. Cynically this has airs of pushing the possibly more challenging Lewwyn lynch off a day.

That said I do agree with you that our battery of claims: 2 1-shot vigs, a hypothesized 2 role stealers (!), and a bunch of passive watching/hiding type abilities don’t come off as super credible.

[Kaiser]

@Kaiser I'm not damning you for your Adrien-vote I'm damning you for your constant lynching Commodore is bad + Infolynch is bad clamoring you did. Only late in the day you found info-lynches worthwhile and the very end when the vote didn't matter at all you moved your vote there.

I see that you still try to throw dirt on me similar to Commodore. Perhaps you killed Gazglum to inherit his role.

Ok, point taken I came around late to accept info lynches as a valid strategy and I was wrong about not having suspicion about Commodore.

GG Commodore

b) Kaiser: [...]. He even voted for me with a very weak [on AdrienIer] case because I pushed for it early on.

So in the hope my reading is right and no interfering happens Adrien should be well done and history.

I am scummy because I jump on a weak Adrien case he started, but his reading is right and he  decides to vig shot Adrien?

I edited your quote to point to my core question, please refer to my other posts for full quotes from Rowain, could you answer this please?

Why the f do you alter my quote to mispresent me    

b) Kaiser: He was one of the don't lynch Commodore people. He even voted for me with a very weak case because I pushed for it early on.

Thats the real one. No mentioning of Adrien here. You voted lynch Rowain with a very weak case thats what I'm saying here. Why do you bring Adrien in it!?!

Thanks, I misunderstood your post in a way that you meant I was voting with you on somebody.
Now I understand that you were referring to my vote on you. That clears my confusion around this.

[Alhambram]

Here I go:

I slept and processed thought at my work over several possible scenarios. At my post #970 I made analysis for myself and showed others to read.
In that analysis I summarized that villain group probably have following members: Commodore, Lewwyn, Pindicator, AdrienIer and posisble Jabbz.
But then end of night 2 happenend and in essence I had two choices after AdrienIer being revealed as town when he was vig-shotted by Rowain.

One: Throw away my vote analysis and start over completely with blank page.

Two: Keep it but scrutinize my analysis.

In end I decided to go for option 2.


Looking back to my post, I discovered where my assement about AdrienIer went wrong:
I idenitfy possible group of Commodore/Lewwyn/Pindicator based upon day 1 already and at day 2 that assumption for me stayed same.
Then I noticed AdrienIer at day 2 due his behaviour and THEN looked back his tractions of day 1 and when I saw that he voted same as Commodore, I said 'gotcha!' like Inspector Javert.
It didn't occur me completely that AdrienIer's voting behavoir at day 1 might a coincidence, orginally I didn't feel any strange about AdrienIer's day 1.
When typing draft for post #970, I got small bad premonition and said that AdrienIer might turn out be clueless hero in last part of day 2 analysis.
AdrienIer was 4th missing wheel for villain bandwagon that I assumed to be. First three being Commodore, Lewwyn and Pindicator being orginal three due their actions at day 1 and 2, also seemingly defending each other.
Jabbz did show up as potential 5th villain due his actions at end of day 2 and largely absence at day 1, but I am not 100% convinced about him as scum even if AdrienIer turned out be hero now.


So what about remaining two that I had as orginal three: Lewwyn and Pindicator? I runned scenarios through my head and there is several possiblities.

-Both are scum
-Only Lewwyn is scum
-Only Pindicator is scum
-Both are heroes


Both are scum
In this case villain team played very sloppy first day, having Commodore and Pindicator both top lynch list already and needed Lewwyn ride to save them.
Lewwyn probably figured out that thrawn was anti-town by his posting behaviour, hoping for a SK so he can claim credit. But thrawn turned out be traitor, also good for Lewwyn because he caught a villain alligned player.
But bad for Commodore and Pindicator because suspicions against them still stands, resulting in Lewwyn attempting to help them again by starting Warriorknight train but backfired with Commodore dead.
Now Pindicator and Lewwyn both are pretending to be innocent and claim to be fooled by Commodore even if Commodore did attract much suspicions from other players and left others wondering how it possible that both Pindicator and Lewwyn could be blinded by Commodore.
Lewwyn's post #963 in this case stand out, Lewwyn explaining that he can't be wolf because he couldn't misplay that badly. But in WW everthing goes and a such misplay might done upon purpose.
Then remaining wolf would be either Jabbz or Cyneheard due his low content and vote for Warriorknight, but it might be someone else too.


Only Lewwyn is scum
In this case Commodore and Lewwyn made Pindicator look bad in order to create a easy mislynch. But of four possible scenarios I think this is second unlikely scenario because why are wolves risking 2 people over just 1 person. Commodore reveal didn't only make Pindicator look bad (highfive), but also Lewwyn. It is hard for me to get how wolves gain advantage over townies with this play unless wolves are confident that Lewwyn is capable to talk out this situation while pinnig his vote upon Pindicator.
Remaining two wolves? More uncertain than when both Lewwyn and Pindicator are scum, need to read others incoming days to sniff them out.


Only Pindicator is scum
In this scenario both Commodore and Pindicator screwed up at day 1 but got saved by  Lewwyn sniffing out thrawn and when Lewwyn mistakenly went for Warriorknight, wolves took action to make Lewwyn look bad at day 3. But also same as only Lewwyn is scum scenario, why use up two people to get rid of Lewwyn alone. Also Pindicator didn't need to vote for Warriorknight in this case so fast after Lewwyn voted for Warriorknight. Pindicator not really needed to vote fast is why I think that this is most unlikely scenario of four.
Remaining 2 wolves? Same as Only Lewwyn is scum scenario.


Both are heroes
In this case both Lewwyn and Pindicator are fooled by Commodore and other players doubt that based upon past WW games of Lewwyn. But even good players make mistakes, that happens all the times. Assuming that this scenario is happening here, then it means that Commodore did play as scum upon purpose at day 1 and 2 and same time roped in Lewwyn and Pindicator as scapegoats when Commodore gets lynched at day 2 and revealed as villain setting up day 3 and day 4 mislynches.
If both Pindicator and Lewwyn aren't villains, then who? Then we have to seriously consider that most of them (or maybe even all of them) did bus Commodore in order to gain 2 mislynches.
Who might be villains, that case we need to investigate and find out sooner than later.


My take is that most plausible scenario is that both are scum or hero. But how do we find out, we can either try with reading players or lynch one of them to find out.
And I got feeling that I can't move forward till I resolve Lewwyn and Pindicator case. I know that there are others with relative little content as Cyneheard, Jabbz and Bob or other players with more content.
But every time I try to think and expand my horizon away from Pindicator and Lewwyn, they keep popping up in my head. I want enter day 4 without that distraction and investigate/read other players.
Talking about reading players, Lewwyn is very good at this, he can also convince players to vote along what he did with thrawn and attempted to do with Warriorknight.
This makes him a very strong town ally but also one of most dangerous scum if he turned out be one. His play at day 1 and 2, rallying against thrawn and Warriorknight left a strong impression upon me.

Therefore I decide to respect the last will of two heckling ghosts who are haunting day 3 of this thread: Lewwyn

[Alhambram]

Lynch votes
6 votes: Lewwyn/Retsuko (Cyneheard, Meiz, Gold Ergo Sum, novice, Jabbz, Alhambram)
3 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Bobchillingworth, sunrise089, Rowain)
3 votes: Cyneheard/Elim Garak (Gaspar, pindicator, Lewwyn)
1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser)

[Alhambram]

In case if you are wondering: If Lewwyn turns out be scum, do I vote for Pindicator at day 4? High probablity but it don't stop me looking at other players.
In case that Lewwyn turned out be town, then I need to check possible Commodore busing by villains but I keep paying attention what Pindicator says/does.

[Alhambram]

And one more fundamental thing:

Either Lewwyn or Pindicator has to be lynched today.

If you all choose to rally behind Cyneheard for example, fine your choice but I point out this:

IF both Lewwyn and Pindicator are really heroes, then the problem is that Commodore infected them with doubt and turned both Lewwyn and Pindicator into controversies here.
Today at day 3 I have doubt about those two and if Cyneheard for example get lynched, it is almost naturally for wolves to not nightkill both Lewwyn and Pindicator so at new day, day 4 the feel of doubt stays which is a advantage for wolves.

[Alhambram]

And Meiz, if you really have power to kill player without revaling their roles or alignment. Then I suggest to not use against Lewwyn or Pindicator because I think that town needs information about either of those two.

[Alhambram]

And I go sleep now and tomorrow I have to travel bit far for my work with car. Don't know whether I can make to computer home before deadline, hence posting all of my thoughts now.
At work I maybe can take quick peek at Iphone, but no promises.

[WarriorKnight]

Usually last posts are made at deadline in order to prevent wolves from using nightkills effectively against them, however being cursed with an inconvenient timezone the latest I can make posts before deadline is ~2h before, giving wolves plenty of time to react. And clearly they did not like what they saw, as I am now dead. Who was I damning in my last post? Leewyn and pindicator of course.

I have question here. You knew your role, you knew you can post after your death and yet you prefered to make this huge post way before DL. Why?

If your question is 'why didn't I post closer to deadline' I cannot post at deadline full stop. Deadline for me is midnight my time and I am not altering my sleep schedule for this game. I believe I explained that already.

If it's 'why post at all if I know I can post later on', it was to bait the nightkill. My ability only works after I get eliminated, until then I am just a townie with no active role in a game where AFAIK almost everyone else has an active role. I didn't make a last post in WW47 because I was doctor, and doctor doesn't do town any favors by dying early. Whereas in this game it actually is a good thing if I die, not only do I give others with active abilities more attempts to use their roles but it also activates my own ability. And since I did make a death post it can be considered a lot more valuable now that I am dead yes?

Another question for the tree stump

After your long post before DL. Lewwyn wrote a long post where he outlines you are scum (also way too early). Do you think it possible that the combination of those 2 posts were the reason you got killed?

Lewwyn was going to get alot of heat already but with that 2 posts and you dead it increased the chances of him getting lynched considerably.

I agree with Meiz that wolves are playing the long game here. I had already shown that I was the kind of villager who sticks to my reads rather then willing to be easily persuaded by arguments. As wolves, the latter type of villager is preferred to keep around longer as they are more likely to be persuaded by arguments made by wolves during the day, which I currently believe Cyneheard fell victim to.

Or if your question is 'if Lewwyn is a wolf, why did he bother responding to you if he was going to nightkill you?' I believe it is because Lewwyn is not the type of person to let someone damning him go unanswered regardless of his alignment, and believes he can talk his way out of anything (which, to his credit, he probably could). But no-one truly knows the answer to this except for Lewwyn. At the end of the day, Lewwyn is still plenty suspicious enough even before having made a counter argument too early, and by no means does simply making a counter argument to my death note resolve him of anything else wolfy he's done this game.

[WarriorKnight]

I'm sorry this will be long. But if you are a villager please read it and don't let your eyes fall out of your skull. You can focus on my commentary between quotes.

Statler: Lewwyn could improve his posts by changing the ending.

Waldorf: How so?

Statler: By moving it closer to the beginning!

Both: Do-ho-ho-ho-hoh!

Cyneheard

I will vote for either pindicator or Cyneheard today.

Translation: Cyneheard is being set up as today's mislynch just like I was set up as yesterday's mislynch.