WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Lewwyn]

In case if you are wondering: If Lewwyn turns out be scum, do I vote for Pindicator at day 4? High probablity but it don't stop me looking at other players.
In case that Lewwyn turned out be town, then I need to check possible Commodore busing by villains but I keep paying attention what Pindicator says/does.

So you set up lynches on other villagers if I'm a villager? I see.

[Lewwyn]

Therefore I decide to respect the last will of two heckling ghosts who are haunting day 3 of this thread: Lewwyn

I see that you hide behind a foolish villager.

Your entire post is decided on lynching pin and/or me, but you do not consider Cyneheard. It's obvious you read nothing of what I wrote about him. If you had you would understand why he is scum. In fact you have ignored him in his entirety, and I can only consider that a scum tell. In fact you try to force everyone to choose between pin and I. The more you do this the more I feel that pin is not scum and you are the one I'm looking for.

Cyneheard, Kaiser and Alhambram. I think it fits.

[Lewwyn]

And one more fundamental thing:

Either Lewwyn or Pindicator has to be lynched today.

If you all choose to rally behind Cyneheard for example, fine your choice but I point out this:

IF both Lewwyn and Pindicator are really heroes, then the problem is that Commodore infected them with doubt and turned both Lewwyn and Pindicator into controversies here.
Today at day 3 I have doubt about those two and if Cyneheard for example get lynched, it is almost naturally for wolves to not nightkill both Lewwyn and Pindicator so at new day, day 4 the feel of doubt stays which is a advantage for wolves.

Pretty clear to me know why WK was killed. He wrote up that post about me and Pindi, he was innocent and Cyneheard runs back and tries to draw people back to it to set the two of us up even more. Quite clear you want the village to mislynch us both and waste our time.

[Gaspar]

Lewwyn, I agree 100% with your post (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754278) that Pind doesn't have a good overview of reads in his head, which I think town has. Latest example is my question of Alhambra, which again comes off as "I need to re-read". So I don't think he's able to give gut reads on players because he needs to be careful with his words as a wolf. I would like to lynch him right after you.

Then if both you and Pindicator reveal as woves, I'm surprised to say I would like to kill Gaspar next due to his post above. It's as if someone clicked a switch on his head with the two townreads and how obviously scummy Cyneheard is  

Omar had the same thought.  Yesterday, Doc and Weeb Fox were like some old married couple bickering and griping and throwing accusations.  Omar half expect one of them to push their dinner aside and storm off to bed.  Trouble in 55 paradise.  

So what changed?   Neither were at risk then.  Now village got Weeb Fox dead to rights and suddenly he got a village feel to Doc?  Mmm hmm.

There are fancy distancing plays for wolves, and then there's a point where town's plan for the lynchings becomes unbearable. I think we're at that point in this game, which causes Gaspar's agenda to change as well.

Just catching up on the thread now, but had to pause here.

I made it clear that my thoughts were solely on the days activities. While normally I believe in the theory of locking on and holding tight, in this case, I feel there is more information to be gleaned by trying to take an open mind to today. I'm not saying I think Lew and Pin are town nor am I saying I'm dead on Cyne as scum. I'm saying Lew and Pin have acted more towny today and Cyne has acted more scummy. Might just be because they're better at the game, I don't know. But I already know what I think of D1/D2 Lewwyn and Pin, so there's nothing new to be gained from considering it. I'll tell you what I don't think - that all 3 of them are scum. So there's a lot of value to me in seeing how today plays out before making my call. I'm already learning a lot.

[Gaspar]

Because I'm an idiot who misread his ability, and just barely saved himself from a very embarrassing post doing a last second review and double checking the mafia wiki. I was pretty sure I had you nailed, until the wiki told me that I only get information if my target gets information, not based on whatever they do. I am a Hero 3-shot Beholder, a role I'm pretty sure I've never seen before, but somehow read as a watcher type role. I left breadcrumbs about my actions.

Checked... Wiki? Hmmm, I do find that suspicious in a custom role game. I also don't like Jabbz's focus on a fancy PR plays at the cost of scum hunting.

Does anybody else find it odd that we have a day vig and a night vig?

I don't really like the role nonsense but re: Jabbz I don't think its scummy that he checked the wiki, I always check the wiki if I'm anything other than vanilla. I do think its scummy that he's so fixated on his role, particularly when it isn't even that good.

Re: Pin's question, which I include in here - yes. I could see if all the roles were mirrored. But there aren't enough scum for all the roles to be mirrored. Meiz's power is basically a null power because its super anti-town but at the same time, I can't imagine Brick would give scum a vig.

[sunrise089]

Meiz's power is basically a null power because its super anti-town but at the same time, I can't imagine Brick would give scum a vig.

Agreed, but Meiz's power is also a great one to make up if need be since calls to "prove it" would be so anti-town. It would get dicey as a claim with three players left but I can see someone not worrying about that now. I don't think that's the case, Meiz is my #1 town, but I don't think there's a single claimed role yet, including mine of course, which is both provable and definitely town.

[Lewwyn]

Here I go:

I slept and processed thought at my work over several possible scenarios. At my post #970 I made analysis for myself and showed others to read.
In that analysis I summarized that villain group probably have following members: Commodore, Lewwyn, Pindicator, AdrienIer and posisble Jabbz.
But then end of night 2 happenend and in essence I had two choices after AdrienIer being revealed as town when he was vig-shotted by Rowain.

One: Throw away my vote analysis and start over completely with blank page.

Two: Keep it but scrutinize my analysis.

In end I decided to go for option 2.


Looking back to my post, I discovered where my assement about AdrienIer went wrong:
I idenitfy possible group of Commodore/Lewwyn/Pindicator based upon day 1 already and at day 2 that assumption for me stayed same.
Then I noticed AdrienIer at day 2 due his behaviour and THEN looked back his tractions of day 1 and when I saw that he voted same as Commodore, I said 'gotcha!' like Inspector Javert.
It didn't occur me completely that AdrienIer's voting behavoir at day 1 might a coincidence, orginally I didn't feel any strange about AdrienIer's day 1.
When typing draft for post #970, I got small bad premonition and said that AdrienIer might turn out be clueless hero in last part of day 2 analysis.
AdrienIer was 4th missing wheel for villain bandwagon that I assumed to be. First three being Commodore, Lewwyn and Pindicator being orginal three due their actions at day 1 and 2, also seemingly defending each other.
Jabbz did show up as potential 5th villain due his actions at end of day 2 and largely absence at day 1, but I am not 100% convinced about him as scum even if AdrienIer turned out be hero now.


So what about remaining two that I had as orginal three: Lewwyn and Pindicator? I runned scenarios through my head and there is several possiblities.

-Both are scum
-Only Lewwyn is scum
-Only Pindicator is scum
-Both are heroes


Both are scum
In this case villain team played very sloppy first day, having Commodore and Pindicator both top lynch list already and needed Lewwyn ride to save them.
Lewwyn probably figured out that thrawn was anti-town by his posting behaviour, hoping for a SK so he can claim credit. But thrawn turned out be traitor, also good for Lewwyn because he caught a villain alligned player.
But bad for Commodore and Pindicator because suspicions against them still stands, resulting in Lewwyn attempting to help them again by starting Warriorknight train but backfired with Commodore dead.
Now Pindicator and Lewwyn both are pretending to be innocent and claim to be fooled by Commodore even if Commodore did attract much suspicions from other players and left others wondering how it possible that both Pindicator and Lewwyn could be blinded by Commodore.
Lewwyn's post #963 in this case stand out, Lewwyn explaining that he can't be wolf because he couldn't misplay that badly. But in WW everthing goes and a such misplay might done upon purpose.
Then remaining wolf would be either Jabbz or Cyneheard due his low content and vote for Warriorknight, but it might be someone else too.


Only Lewwyn is scum
In this case Commodore and Lewwyn made Pindicator look bad in order to create a easy mislynch. But of four possible scenarios I think this is second unlikely scenario because why are wolves risking 2 people over just 1 person. Commodore reveal didn't only make Pindicator look bad (highfive), but also Lewwyn. It is hard for me to get how wolves gain advantage over townies with this play unless wolves are confident that Lewwyn is capable to talk out this situation while pinnig his vote upon Pindicator.
Remaining two wolves? More uncertain than when both Lewwyn and Pindicator are scum, need to read others incoming days to sniff them out.


Only Pindicator is scum
In this scenario both Commodore and Pindicator screwed up at day 1 but got saved by  Lewwyn sniffing out thrawn and when Lewwyn mistakenly went for Warriorknight, wolves took action to make Lewwyn look bad at day 3. But also same as only Lewwyn is scum scenario, why use up two people to get rid of Lewwyn alone. Also Pindicator didn't need to vote for Warriorknight in this case so fast after Lewwyn voted for Warriorknight. Pindicator not really needed to vote fast is why I think that this is most unlikely scenario of four.
Remaining 2 wolves? Same as Only Lewwyn is scum scenario.


Both are heroes
In this case both Lewwyn and Pindicator are fooled by Commodore and other players doubt that based upon past WW games of Lewwyn. But even good players make mistakes, that happens all the times. Assuming that this scenario is happening here, then it means that Commodore did play as scum upon purpose at day 1 and 2 and same time roped in Lewwyn and Pindicator as scapegoats when Commodore gets lynched at day 2 and revealed as villain setting up day 3 and day 4 mislynches.
If both Pindicator and Lewwyn aren't villains, then who? Then we have to seriously consider that most of them (or maybe even all of them) did bus Commodore in order to gain 2 mislynches.
Who might be villains, that case we need to investigate and find out sooner than later.


My take is that most plausible scenario is that both are scum or hero. But how do we find out, we can either try with reading players or lynch one of them to find out.
And I got feeling that I can't move forward till I resolve Lewwyn and Pindicator case. I know that there are others with relative little content as Cyneheard, Jabbz and Bob or other players with more content.
But every time I try to think and expand my horizon away from Pindicator and Lewwyn, they keep popping up in my head. I want enter day 4 without that distraction and investigate/read other players.
Talking about reading players, Lewwyn is very good at this, he can also convince players to vote along what he did with thrawn and attempted to do with Warriorknight.
This makes him a very strong town ally but also one of most dangerous scum if he turned out be one. His play at day 1 and 2, rallying against thrawn and Warriorknight left a strong impression upon me.

Therefore I decide to respect the last will of two heckling ghosts who are haunting day 3 of this thread: Lewwyn

I think what is pissing me off the most about this post is that Alhambram isn't even taking into account any of my posts or anything. He's metagaming the whole thing and he's not even saying whether he thinks I'm suspicious or not. He's basing his entire vote on possible scenarios that he's created by ignoring the rest of the field. The world does not revolve around Pin and I but Alhambram is making it about us only. And he's not even doing it through scum reads or anything like that. He's absolving himself of any blame when I flip town by ignoring my posts on Cyne and invoking WK as his shield. It's super scummy.

[Jabbz]

I don't really like the role nonsense but re: Jabbz I don't think its scummy that he checked the wiki, I always check the wiki if I'm anything other than vanilla.  I do think its scummy that he's so fixated on his role, particularly when it isn't even that good.

Re: Pin's question, which I include in here - yes.  I could see if all the roles were mirrored.  But there aren't enough scum for all the roles to be mirrored.  Meiz's power is basically a null power because its super anti-town but at the same time, I can't imagine Brick would give scum a vig.

I was "fixated" on my role because A: It was something I could keep up on, as opposed to the massive number of posts, and B: misreading it had me thinking I had proof that Rowain, someone I didn't trust at that point, lied about his night actions. You would be "fixated" as well.

[sunrise089]

Fun fact while re-reading Pindicator dolphin stuff as promised: Lewwyn and Pindicator both did their initial joke votes on Meiz.

[sunrise089]

I was "fixated" on my role because A: It was something I could keep up on, as opposed to the massive number of posts, and B: misreading it had me thinking I had proof that Rowain, someone I didn't trust at that point, lied about his night actions. You would be "fixated" as well.

Jabbz, what made you think the check the wiki last-minute to confirm the role wasn't the Watcher-type role you thought it was? Why not check the role PM? Was the role PM that unclear?