WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Gaspar]

I don't really know what to say at this point, I just read like 150 posts and what I got out of it is that several players are getting irritable and everyone is sort of waiting to see how Weeb Fox/Pindicator turns out and so this day is pretty much a wash.  The only ones doing much if any attempted hunting by my admittedly skim read are Weeb Fox, Ol Dirty T (this was great GES) and Alhambram and I wouldn't in the slightest be surprised to see two of those flip scum.

We have to hang a WK voter today.  There's a lot of info in how people have tried to steer the post-lynch landscape right now that we'll have to come to tomorrow, but the combination of likelihood of hitting scum and the info to be gleaned from that players interactions post-death is too alluring to make any other choice.

I suspect I've gotten all out of Cyneheard that I'm going to get.  So given both have played well today, I have to ask myself, who did I suspect more coming out of the night.  The two things that sway me are Weeb Fox's reaction to Thrawn's death, where he was immediately aiming to clear himself and his attitude EOD2, where he was flinging all the shit possible to try and save Commodore.  Both of those times, he felt super scummy.  The rest of the time, he's felt like normal Weeb Fox.  But that, plus the circumstantial evidence, is enough for this Doc to declare that it isn't Lupus, its Weeb Fox.

[Jabbz]

I was "fixated" on my role because A: It was something I could keep up on, as opposed to the massive number of posts, and B: misreading it had me thinking I had proof that Rowain, someone I didn't trust at that point, lied about his night actions. You would be "fixated" as well.

Jabbz, what made you think the check the wiki last-minute to confirm the role wasn't the Watcher-type role you thought it was? Why not check the role PM? Was the role PM that unclear?

I pulled up the pm to find the name of the role as I had forgotten it. I read it through and realized I wasn't sure it meant what I thought it meant. I checked the wiki, and realized it hadn't.

[Jabbz]

Meiz's power is basically a null power because its super anti-town but at the same time, I can't imagine Brick would give scum a vig.

Agreed, but Meiz's power is also a great one to make up if need be since calls to "prove it" would be so anti-town. It would get dicey as a claim with three players left but I can see someone not worrying about that now. I don't think that's the case, Meiz is my #1 town, but I don't think there's a single claimed role yet, including mine of course, which is both provable and definitely town.

Meiz's role just seems so at odds with what everyone else has. I can see the justification for not giving role info from Gaz, because it would be inherited (in theory). Why on earth would a townie have a kill that would leave everyone in the dark. IIRC he didn't specify it as giving him info and no one else, so I have to assume he would be blind as well. How does that fit in with a whole slew of information gathering abilities, and the vig we already have. I think either Meiz is making up his role, or Rowain faked his somehow. Of the two I think Meiz is far more likely, and I already have a scum lean on him.

[BRickAstley]

Tally as of post 1225:

Lynch votes
7 votes: Lewwyn/Retsuko (Cyneheard, Meiz, Gold Ergo Sum, novice, Jabbz, Alhambram, Gaspar)
3 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Bobchillingworth, sunrise089, Rowain)
2 votes: Cyneheard/Elim Garak (pindicator, Lewwyn)
1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser)

Voting history:

Retsuko

Uncle Iroh

Retsuko

Elim Garak

Elim Garak

Elim Garak

* Kaiser (claimed Understudy)

Isaac

* pindicator

* Commodore (known Roleblocker)

* Lewwyn (claimed Hider)

* Cyneheard

Pindicator:Lewwyn:and Cyneheard

Henchman 21

Elim Garak

Retsuko

Henchman 21

Henchman 21

Retsuko

Henchman 21

Uncle Iroh

Elim Garak

Retsuko

Retsuko

Retsuko

[Lewwyn]

Sorry for another deep dive, but I told you today I would be doing some deep dive scum hunting. It was clear to me going into today that I would be a target for scum and village a like. I don't mind the attacks on me because it makes it easier for me to spot the villagers from the scum. There's something clarifying about the way you are attacked and as a result I feel I've got another one.

I'm looking over alhambram, but I will say I think we have been lenient. It really slipped my mind that he no lynched Day 1.

My contribution was partly role play and partly true life catching up with me. I had to overwork two days in row and my friends asked me to drink together 2 days in row and I couldn't say no.
My vote for sunrise and you were purely for role play reasons and now I cast honest vote for my 1st day: no lynch because due my busy life I don't have time to properly read other's posts.
I already said in sign up thread that it might my mistake to sign in. I finally shall have time properly read other's posts and respond them at weekend. Now I am going to bed, very tired and need to get up tomorrow early again.

He copped out halfway through the day and he never really caught heat for it.

Beyond that I think Day 1 really gives no feedback on him.

Night 1 he posts his thoughts post lynch. https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753158 I don't see it as a tell either way, but it's more than cyneheard at least.

Day 2 He starts by pushing bob ok.

Commodore make his scumbuddy joke with Pin and Alhambram can't understand it:

You say pindi and comm come off as less scummy at that moment. Now you're voting for comm. Is he more scummy now?

I was wondering about Commodore's use of word "scumbuddy"  at post #581 and Pindicator's words "fooled them" at post #582.
Maybe because I am not native english speaker, I lack same level of understanding as you how you look at their exchange.
But I think that you shouldn't use those words unless you wants paint tagret at yourself. In short I didn't extactly understand why they are saying that.
If they are really joking, then it seems that I have different sense of humor.


And with that moment I meant the last hour of day 1, both Commodore and Pindicator did come across less scummy than Thrawn for me when I re-read, so NOT less than other players.
And now Thrawn is gone and Pindicator and Commodore are doing such antics, which I wonder why?
Also I did vote for Bob before because he didn't post anything and he did post now something, soI don't see no reason for me to park vote at Bob anymore.
And honestly I am starting feel bit irritiated at Commodore's dolphin antics.

He's voting for Comm and honestly I think he's being overly obtuse. I think he's using it as a reason to vote for Comm without acctually giving reasoning about Coomm being scum. It seems he votes for Commodore simply for the RP.
Adrien also notes this and voted for him.

His response to GES megapost:

GES thanks for your post, altough I had reread your post three times, you writing style is but hard for me to follow.
You comes forward with 3 shot tracker claim and used it on Novice which revealed no action that night and Novice confirmed your action.
Which can mean either it was townie with passive power which don't activate at night or with certain conditions or a villain who didn't perform kill.
Your day 1 analysis is interesting but speculating don't help much now because there is too little information which brings me to next point:


AdrienIer, I argee with you that no one is distinctly scummy right now, a unfortunate result of lynch turned out be traitor and nightkill without aligement/role.
My vote at Commodore still stands for now, but it isn't solid. I am willing to switch vote if someone starts looking more scummy or if someone else makes good point about that person. 
But if at deadline nobody still stand out, then no choice but to lynch for more information. I like hear about Commodore more and he promised reads at post 688.

Rowain and Novice are currently pressing upon Kaiser and Kaiser has promised to respond, I also like to hear what he has to say about. Why do I have feeling that it is going be another long post again?

I don't think this is a bad post. But some things stand out such as a lack of deep convictions about anything and a lack of a real stance.

Commodore chimes in with something very useless in his list of people:

Alhambram: Lurking scum or lurking town? I have no idea, and neither does he.

Which I find interesting because for other like me he gives scum lean, Pindi town lean. Alhambram? No lean. Yeah its WIFOM, but given his read on Cyne:

Cyneheard: Has been skating by completely after a decently active first 24 hours. Null read because he's been very quiet.

I find the comparison to be striking. Almost like he was trying to leave little trace one way or another about scumbuddies because he already knew he was going down. And some wolves were riding the bus.

End of day and Alhambram is back saying he's catching up, then:

Frantically reading through thread and posts. Altough Warriorknight's posts was bit strange as Lewwyn pointed out at #728.
I don't feel jusitified to switch vote now, sorry Commodore.

So he's hedging a bit here and he's saying WK was scummy? Guess when he posts this? Minutes before the end of lynch after the door to save Comm has been closed. I think there's a chance he would have jumped over if there was enough of a chance to save Comm and not expoose himself.

Through 2 days Alhambram has barely done ANYTHING. His vote on Comm has reasoning in that he didn't understand Comm's joke and the RP annoyed him. After that his only other real post of Day 2 is after Adrien votes for him, almost as if he's spurred into action.


Night 2 is very interesting. It's the first time that Alhambram expends any real energy in posting. I think this is when the wolves really felt like they had to nail me. I direct your attentiong to post #970 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754027

Read it carefully and tell me if there is actual scumhunting going on here. This is a huge post but most of it is simply summary of things that have already happened And then there's the analysis of his summary Day 1:

My end result from analysis of day 1:
Most townish feeling from this analysis: Rowain and Gaspar. 
Moderate town feeling: sunrise089, novice, Meiz, Kaiser, Gazglum, AdrienIer, Cyneheard and Warriorknight.
Scum lean feeling due avoiding last 7 hours: Jabbz, GES, Bob and Alhambram.
Now Pindicator case based upon speculation: if he is townie, then Commodore didn’t really need to move away his vote after AdrienIer switched, yet he did. Maybe Commodore was hoping for easy day 2 lynch of Pindicator townie but after watching his behavior against Pindicator at day 2, that idea can be shredded. 
If Pindicator is also a villain, then villain team got a problem, two of them are top lynch candidates. It got solved by Lewwyn starting thrawn train and also partly due how thrawn played 1st day making him easy lynch, thrawn got diffcult role to play here.
Now million dollar question: is Lewwyn also a villain and rode to save both Pindicator and Commodore. It is still unsure now to give answer, but Lewwyn’s did defend Commodore and Pindicator at various points, at day 1 by pointing to thrawn constantly as scum instead looking at both Commodore and Pindicator whose already did cause ring alarmbells with others.
And moreover Lewwyn seems pushing it even harder at day 2, hoping to start Warriorknight train instead Commodore but this time it was Commodore who was lynched and turned out be a villain! We should put up a grilled weeb fox as day 3 menu.
But there should 1-2 more villains around, they can be among 4 parked voters keeping low profile.
And is there strange swings in last half hour aside Commodore? Only one do stand out a bit: vote by Novice to Pindicator because it didn’t make difference and no arguments why switch, likely due time constraint but something to keep in mind. End of day 1 analysis.

So his leans here are based entirely on votes. He has done nothing with actual posts. Instead he's creating narratives and he's using his Day 2 lynch unformation to color any assumptioins from Day 1. Why even call it Day 1 analysis if you're just going to base all of your ideas based on Day 2? It's clear he's using the Day 2 to drive the narrative he wants about Day 1. And again he's doing this based a lynch of Commodore as if the other wolves don't know that commodore is about to be lynched. WHich again is part of the issue with his second Day analysis:

End result from my analysis of day 2:
Most townish feel for me: Meiz, Gaspar, Sunrise, Novice, Rowain.
Moderate town feel: Alhambram, Warriorknight, GES, Kaiser, Cyneheard.
Slight town lean: Bob, his problem seem that he is absent at deadline vote and several hours before, maybe unfortunate timezones, but he did call out AdrienIer which is a plus in my mind.
 
Scum leans: there is group of 4 seemingly moving in same direction majority of day and often not interested to invesitage each others: Lewwyn, Pindicator, Commodore and Adrienler.
At day 1 Pindicator and Commodore already looked scummy, and Lewwyn initally was hero by unmasking thrawn, falls out grace now with presisent defense of Pindicator/Commodore and trying to create Warriorknight train. AdrienIer was bit quiet at day 1, not generating much suspicion. But his day 2 behaviour is puzzling and now we know that Commodore is villain which allows townies to track votes at day 1 and 2 properly now and it turns out that AdrienIer is voting with Lewwyn/ Commodore/Pindicator trio often. He might be clueless hero being used but I got bad vibes from his attack against me and Warriorknight.
Then last Jabbz, initially I got him as neutral but last half hour of day 2 changed it. Sitting out day 1 and then last minute vote at day 2 with factual errors, those things don’t improve towniness feel for Jabbz. But also he was one who started about Commodore’s night actions and interestingly Lewwyn followed up, I might think too much but maybe it was planned set up of villains to have Jabbz to ask questions. But for now I keep close eye at Jabbz too.

So based on votes everyone not named Lewwyn, pin adrien and Jabbz are supicious... Wait what based on the votes of Day 2? That means he thinks that Adrien, comm, pin, and I are all wolves on WK. Note that he GIVES CYNEHEARD MODERATE TOWN LEAN EVEN THOUGH HE WAS VOTING WK TOO?????
 
 

Probably villain group based upon my analysis form first 2 days:
 
-Commodore (lynched)
-Lewwyn
-Pindicator
-AdrienIer
-Jabbz (maybe, not 100% sure)
 
-thrawn (traitor and lynched)

I notice Cyneheard is completely absent here as well.


It's quite clear that Alhambram is trying to use the votes to shield and actual scumhunting. He's hiding behind "Data" and creating the narrative he wants. Best of all he absolves himself of blame "the voting shows it". You know what the biggest problem with this is? Villagers don't know alignment but Wolves do. They know who is who and they are NOT all going to get trapped trying to save someone like like Commodore. It's a perfect bus situatuion. Alhambram is ridinig that bus and using iti like a weapon. Why was WK killed? Because he suspected Pindi and me and because by killing WK you PROVE that Me, Pin, Adrien are voting for a villager.

Take note. Alhambram rode the bus and is using it to get more villagers set up for mislynches. You have to read the tone you uhave to read what people do. Looking just at thte votes by ythemselves kills villagers. It's why Alhambram is trying so hard to appear objective and data driven. Day 1 he copped out so as no tto leave a trail, Day 2 he rode the bus, Day 3 he uses the bus and the data to run over villagers all while trying to keep his hands clean.

Alhambram is scum #2. Cyneheard and Alhambram.

[Lewwyn]

I suspect I've gotten all out of Cyneheard that I'm going to get.  So given both have played well today, I have to ask myself, who did I suspect more coming out of the night.  The two things that sway me are Weeb Fox's reaction to Thrawn's death, where he was immediately aiming to clear himself and his attitude EOD2, where he was flinging all the shit possible to try and save Commodore.  [/vote].

Comign off the thrawn vote I saw the red and thought I'd caught a wolf off the bat. I was very proud of myself. When I realized it was a traitor and not a full wolf sure I wanted my effort to mean something more. Call it hubris, but I was caught up in it. When I got to the end of Day 2 I was very much locked into the idea thatt Comm was a villager. I wasn't tryign to save him so much as lynch someone I suspected. That's really all there is to it.

Just proomise me you'll lynch Cyneheard and Alhambram. Don't let his longer "data driven" posts fool you. I believe there is only 2 scum on WK. Comm and Cyne. I think alhambram rode the bus and after I do some more research I'll let you know whether I think Kaiser is the one riding Adrien at the end of Day 2.

I WANT TO POINT OUT THERE ARE ONLY 5 PEOPLE ON WK and THERE WERE 4 PEOPLE ON ADRIEN! WHy is such a done deal that all the wolves are on the WK train and not the adrien train?????

Just remember Gaspar if I live to Day 3 I get clarity. Judge me on my work today.

[Lewwyn]

Fun fact while re-reading Pindicator dolphin stuff as promised: Lewwyn and Pindicator both did their initial joke votes on Meiz.

Fun fact so did Kaiser

[Lewwyn]

I want to start this by pointing out that Kaiser has less posts than Cyne and alhambram and all 3 have less than Jabbz even though Jabbz is the one with an actual physical impairment. Kaiser has less posts than all of them and has acheived this despite the fact that he was even under some pressure on Day 2. Usually someone under pressure will do a little better and giving some more content, but by golly Kaiser pulls off not doing that and escapes suspicion. Instead, as I keep pointing out, everyone is focused solely on the WK voters to the detriment of the town. FEAR NOT VILLAGERS I WILL DO YOUR WORK FOR YOU!!

Now as I said Kaiser has a measly 30 posts and to get us started he basically is jumping right in to start day 1... Active! with roleplay. first 2 posts are nothign burgers. Then he has 3 posts that are good switching his vote poling around asking questions. Then he goes silent again and we get to the mega post.
This is a style change. Like up to this point Kaiser has been interacting and then he starts with longer posts. I won't quote them in whole but I will give links #276 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752749

Specifically from this long post I do not like:

With this in mind, I believe we are either sitting at 4 scum and maybe 1-2 3rd parties or 5 scum with 0-1 3rd parties. I do expect 3rd parties to be in sleeper state in the early game, meaning now, so I am basing my further analysis on the expected scum numbers for day 1.

I would expect scum to organize in different categories to be able to set up mislynches and misdirection but to also create a certain distance between the scum players if somebody should get caught. It is likely that scum will try to create a train on certain people but to leave it timely as to draw as few suspicion as possible and creating a town lean with other players.
The scum team has likely been reacting already to the day 1 play and started to position itself accordingly, so let us do a quick analysis of participation behaviour. 

I currently see the following participation patterns:

1. High post count, high/medium contribution 
   
2. High post count, low contribution - the sacrifical lamb/high effort hider
   
3. medium post count, high/medium contribution - the work horse
   
4. medium post count, low contribution - the tie breaker
   
5. low post count, medium contribution - the hidden champion
   
6. low post count, low contribution
   

I expect the scum strategy is to position itself in at least 3 or 4 of these categories while keeping distance, I marked possible expected setups/tasks in above list. These are very far fetched guesses, but represent a possible strategy and the basis for my further particpation pattern analysis. Please note that scum can be in any of my categories, I was just assuming where they would try to position themselves.
Also, it is certainly possible and even likely if we should face 5 scum, that scum are grouping in order to provide a better town cover. However this early it is more likely that they try to group with a villager.

He's outlining how he would expect scum to operate, but scum don't operate the same the whole way through a game nor do they fall so neatly into catagories I feel like this is counter productive for the village, and even dangerous. The rest of the post is just a summary of all the posts in the game. It's distracting and busywork. The comments that he does give are not very indepth and don't even really give us a real strong stance on what he's thinking. It's death by information overload and I thin, good cover.

He does follow this mega post wiht some more questions which I think is good. Let's look at the lynch:

Giant Long Post

Kaiser please make sure you've clearly stated your vote after making any posts where you're using a Red text color in any other way.

I was hoping using only orange text for suspicious people would be enough not to mislead. My vote in the big post was on Jabbz for his scummy day1 play.

Right now Jabbz has no traction though and I do not want to vote a now value vote as I think it does help the wolves securing easier lynches with less commitment. Also I believe lynching Jabbz right now would be low tell if he turns up village.

It looks like the current decision will be between these
- Pindicator - low contribution and stretched sunrise arguments
- Thrawn - weird play in comparison to WW47, not actively hunting but only defending
- Commodore - argument on him misunderstanding GES

I honestly am undecided. I buy his defense better than Lewwyn does because I feel he was acting similar in WW47 at the end but I would need to look up on if he gave reads or just defended there.

I do not buy yet the Commodore case, without inspecting it further, so it is a heads up where I currently have not real good understanding of the pindicator case.
So it is thrawn and I will tryo to read up on pindicator but will be not on my pc until deadline, only on the phone.

So here he votes for thrawn. He does not buy Commodore without inspecting further, but he spent all that time cataloguing all those posts? With that amount of reading you should have an idea no? Same with pindicator, he does not understand the case? But he has been reading every post no?

We get closer to deadling and Kaiser reappears with:

Well yes Pin, I agree that my default stance is to prioritize player strength.  But I feel pretty strongly that thrawn is just having a tough time whereas I think you're better than this.

I hate this.

Sell ME on it Lew, then.  You know me well enough to know hammering isn't going to convince me.  Where am I wrong?

thrawn is not scum hunting and he's not playing villager. He's voting for pin out of convenience and not out of preservation. Hell he didn't even KNOW the case on Pin before he voted for him. He gave his reasoning AFTER the fact and ONLY AFTER I called him out.

I feel thrawn had a believable defense but his play is so different to Ww47 and he defended more constructive there. Granted the pressure was higher as well as he was tied top lynch.

I am already cutting slack to Jabbz and Alhambram whose play i both disliked more than pindicators. So I am giving pindicator some time to improve his play as well.

I need more time to analyze the commodore case but had a more neutral read so far and need to reevaluate this during tge night

Let's give pindi slack and he NEEDS MORE TIME TO ANALYZE COMMODORE. That is a real cop out.

Hey I'm curious how did Alhambram rate Kaiser on the Day 1 lynch?

Moderate town feeling: sunrise089, novice, Meiz, Kaiser, Gazglum, AdrienIer, Cyneheard and Warriorknight.

Ah moderate town feel, sounds great!

What about Day 2? It takes a while for him to show up and when he does its more of a list of things to do during the day

What are the positive points for you? Feel free to use more than 5 words

His tone feels fine. I see no sign of scumminess, but the "as an american he should have read through GES's posts easily" argument gives me pause because I can hardly be a judge on that. So not quite town read but no reason to want to see him dead yet. I'll try a reread before the end of the night and will post if it changes my mind or if I get reminded of a moment I liked.

That is my issue with the commodore train as well, I need to reread it though as I sadly hat nearly no time today.

Quick "out of the hip"
Investigate:
- Jabbz + Alhambram policy lynches still valid?
- Commodore in depth to see if the is a case beyond "surprisingly did not understand GES
- pindicator quite some content recently
- Rowain still suspicious for low contribution?
- Lewwyn participation ramped up, positive started thrawn train but how exactly did this happen
- novice has a slight bad taste at the moment, I do not yet know why

Town leans:
Meiz

On eof those things is now try to figure out the commodore train.

Attacks Rowain because he doesn't understand the argument. Votes for him. Then disappears.

Comes back, promises a reread again. But really just disappears again. Finally reappears near the end of the day:

started at #813


Sorry guys, I had to drop low and was not able to invest the time I wanted due to my end of day1 behaviour and my wife being not to please about being late based on me browsing a forum. I have to admit that my take on this game is way to effort intensive but I have caught up to post 813 by now and will come back with some thoughts in the known manner. 

Just to address this here quickly @Rowain and @Novice. 
We were supposed to leave and I quickly finished #331 on the PC stating that I wanted to read up on pindi and comm as well as compare thrawns defense WW47.
My wife has been an understanding angel with angry eyes, so I was reading up on thrawn defense and a quick skim again of pindi on my phone when posting #401. 

Thrawns defense was different, he was not really hunting anymore but just defending looking for other people to provide him arguments to talk about. The pindi case remained shallow and he was not the only person no investing time into day1 so I decided for the thrawn vote, even though I could follow his defending arguments.

so mostly he spends the time he does have telling us about how he doesn't have time rather than scumhunting. He answers a few specific questions and then runs off to write 2 Walls of Text which...

Commodore
Lynching him will bring information on pindicator and Lewwyn, probably also on Meiz by now. I did re-read the case on his day1, having never played with him before, I hesitate damning him for low contribution/participation when there have been people doing less. I agree though that he was not giving opinions to leave a trail beyond his poking. The commodore needs to understand GES thing remains weird to me. I do not even know if Commodore is american (but it would be easy for him to point out if he werent), I can even less judge how different accents/dialects/slang in the US is and I remember watching Batman the Dark Knight for the first time in English, freaking out about my inabilty to understand the DA.
I feel there has been a long train building on commodore and that disencouraged me to vote for him but he has been weird about the bee-boy story as I am not sure he was feigning something there or trying to extract information (around #477 and before). I can understand being upset about the target of a lynch chain and his suspicion about novice #522. His first reads and opinions came in night1 #542, Day2 #688 and 714. it seems he is on the defensive but he also shares my view on Gazglum being a villager.
My current read would be neutral, I would l disagree with some opinions on his lists but I agree with others.
Possible as an information lynch though, I think he would be the better target than pindi for an information lynch

This is the commodore section. I'm not sure what to make of it. I think this is a pretty neutral read and he has a hesitancy in terms of what he's willing to say one way or the other. I don't think this is damning.

Cyneheard
I see many people having an early Day1 town lean but I cannot figure out why. He had a short analysis in #99 and poked people, but there was also a lot of RP. I have him down in #264 with his first meaningful contribution. That beeign said, he has typically good points, when he posts something (#523, #641, #649) but some of these posts might be easy to fake as wolf as they are logic analysis of reveals. Slight town lean

GES
The lazy argument was used a little to liberal this game and I have my difficulties following it, at least when it is about the time people invest instead of about thinking arguments through. I do not fully agree with all his statements (26 % chance of a werewolf, 1/4 of werewolves will be active during night 86% sure that novice is no scum ???) he is putting in the effort and leaving a good, difficult to read trail

Adrien before Lewwyn due to time constraints
His thrawn votes lacked arguments, he brought them later but it is always easier in hindsight. I feel much of his posts follow the rule that he can explain them later which I dislike as it leaves less of a trail and gives better outs later. 
Follows strongly on dead Gazglums lead, but avoids commititing on anything else. When leaving GES he is focussing on the low posters and jumps quickly on WK after Lewwyn starts the train after stating earlier that he does not want to follow Lewwyn. His jump on gaspar seems defensive

Okay from his next posts he mentions Cyneheard which is interesting. The read starts out with reasons why he thinks its starnge that peopole have a town lean on Cyne and then goes ahead and gives Cyne a town lean.
I think the GES one is interesting and incomplete its a bit hard to parse but it looks like he thinks he's town lean
Adrien vote (before voting comm a minute to the deadline) its one of the more detailed and clearer reads.

In the end he votes comm at the last moment.

Again I stress he doesn't cover me until after the lynch.

How do I feel about the role claim? I can see it being true and I can see it being some sort of wolf ability. I don't want to lynch based off that.


Overall Kaisers scuminess comes from his lack of posting and reliance on huge amounts of cataloguing every post. There are a nnumber of posts I think are actually pretty good in Day 1. It's clear he was more engaging and active and interactive then, but then disappeared later on.

Conclusion 60-40 scum. The voting makes me think scum but a lot of the reads are reasonable. I don't like the commodore reasoning so much at the end of Day 1 and it seems like he lynches Commodore at the end just for information. But if he were scum he would know what the information would provide and he would be able to "analyze" that information that way he wants. Based on what I have read his guilt is more of a coin flip. I would not lynch him before Cyne, Alhambram or Pin for that matter.

[sunrise089]

Fun fact while re-reading Pindicator dolphin stuff as promised: Lewwyn and Pindicator both did their initial joke votes on Meiz.

Fun fact so did Kaiser

I wasn't attacking you here Lewwyn, just pointing out something funny. The humor is that the people up for a lynch after Com both joke voted for him, not that everyone who joke voted for him is up for the lynch.

Jabbz, what made you think the check the wiki last-minute to confirm the role wasn't the Watcher-type role you thought it was? Why not check the role PM? Was the role PM that unclear?

I pulled up the pm to find the name of the role as I had forgotten it. I read it through and realized I wasn't sure it meant what I thought it meant. I checked the wiki, and realized it hadn't.

But did not the PM say immediately after the name how the role worked?! I'm asking you why you added the step. I am not saying checking the wiki isn't sane to do at some point, but rather if you're opening the PM anyways why not check there.

Meiz's power is basically a null power because its super anti-town but at the same time, I can't imagine Brick would give scum a vig.

Agreed, but Meiz's power is also a great one to make up if need be since calls to "prove it" would be so anti-town. It would get dicey as a claim with three players left but I can see someone not worrying about that now. I don't think that's the case, Meiz is my #1 town, but I don't think there's a single claimed role yet, including mine of course, which is both provable and definitely town.

Meiz's role just seems so at odds with what everyone else has. I can see the justification for not giving role info from Gaz, because it would be inherited (in theory). Why on earth would a townie have a kill that would leave everyone in the dark. IIRC he didn't specify it as giving him info and no one else, so I have to assume he would be blind as well. How does that fit in with a whole slew of information gathering abilities, and the vig we already have. I think either Meiz is making up his role, or Rowain faked his somehow. Of the two I think Meiz is far more likely, and I already have a scum lean on him.

Well the counterbalance would be it's immediate use, right? It could for instance save town Meiz from a mislynch, or am I misunderstanding the claimed ability? There is one thematic reason the ability makes perfect sense - it's nerfed. We have lots of nerfed abilities - I'm a nerfed Mason, WK is nerfed bulletproof, Thrawn had a nerfed vig. Brick advertised a lower power game and he seems at least in part to have done that by either nerfed versions of typical abilities or limited shot versions of typical abilities. In that vein Rowain's ability is atypical since it's so conventional...as is yours given it's both a worse version of an observational role and limited shot.

[Jabbz]

I'm going to be completely honest with you here Lewwyn. Those posts are just a mass of information that I can't absorb. I can't even really respond in any meaningful way because parsing information out of that is painful. I still am not 100% sure I'm staying on you, I really like Meiz for this as well, but I will promise that I'll go through it line by line if I have to should you swing and turn blue.