WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[sunrise089]

Sunrise, I think Bob would be the next person I want to look at.  He has been pushing the whole WarriorKnight voters campaign pretty hard with little other direction in his scum hunting.

Thanks for answering. I am surprised you’d pick Bob irrespective of Lewwyn flip result.

[Kaiser]

Unless someone wants to skip the ceremonial town-slaying and just go straight to the hunting of scum.  I'll go back to Gaspar if people want to take a chance on the possibility that we've all been played here.

I believe it more likely that we have been played by a coordinated wolf team, including a sacrifice of Commodore, than that we have GrandMaMeiz or BallsOfSteelLewwyn around.
I would love to believe that town played extraordinarily Day1, but I try to avoid wishful thinking.

[pindicator]

Rowain, it depends on Cyneheard's flip too. If Cyneheard is town and Lewwyn town then Gaspar 100%. If Cyneheard is scum/Lewwyn town then Gaspar suddenly look pretty good for his post at the beginning of this day. I'd probably go back to looking at Bob.

Lewwyn Scum/Cyneheard Scum - we probably have a lurker as our last scum

Lewwyn Scum/Cyneheard Town - again, looks good for Gaspar. Bob again.

With Bob it's his driving of the WarriorKnight voters that has me suspect of him. I am pretty convinced scum sat on Commodore to watch the winds in day 2. There may be one scum out there hunting other targets, but I think with so much heat on a team member they played it safe.

[pindicator]

Sunrise, I think Bob would be the next person I want to look at.  He has been pushing the whole WarriorKnight voters campaign pretty hard with little other direction in his scum hunting.

Thanks for answering. I am surprised you’d pick Bob irrespective of Lewwyn flip result.

So with Lewwyn and Cyneheard going at each other today then at most we have 1 scum on WarriorKnight day 2. Bob was one of the people pushing the theory. Perhaps scum knew they wouldn't even have to say anything, that town would naturally want to go after the WarriorKnight voters? But Bob wasn't on Commodore and he wasn't on WarriorKnight either.

[sunrise089]

@Lewwyn - I won’t be crushed if Gaspar hangs, I’ve had my issues with him. I agree with the Thrawn sequence you quoted - I said at the time that he twice says Thrawn doing X and then had to justify by using some atypical definition of X. But I guess you’re just not seeing what I’m seeing on pindicator. I really think he lied throughout the entire dolphin speech series of posts I quoted. I don’t like saying he lied since pind has been friendly and collegial in most of our exchanges, but he said he couldn’t parse that language when I think he could, he told novice he’d figured it out at an earlier point than he really did, he said he’d answered the question about it when he hadn’t, he doubled-down on that to me and attacked me for it, and then just last night he tried to explain by calling back to an earlier novice post which didn’t actually exist.

And, that Bob answer by him relight above is lousy IMHO.

[Jabbz]

Don't have time to read jack, about to leave to dentist. Rowain, what do we gain from voting gaspar? What do we learn? Asking for posterity, as I'm walking out the door.

[pindicator]

Sunrise, come join on Gaspar. If you see one person vote onto me then hop back on me and know I'll join you.

[Kaiser]

To be honest, I doubt that Cyneheard will turn up scum if we had a 4 wolf+traitor scum team.
I could imagine it with a 5 scum + traitor team, but assume currently that Cyneheard will turn up town else Brick would have found a different solution for the game continuation.

[Lewwyn]

Day 2 Gaspar starts with his vote on Commodore:

On mobile so I won't be able to give anything other than snap insights, though not sure I do much other than that anyway.

Gaz dying but not flipping is weird but from the reveal we did get and the pregame setup im expecting a lot of weirdness. Odds are hes town bc that's what I read him as yesterday and all the other explanations are too WIFOM for my tastes.

I dont see anything that makes me think I'm wrong about Commodore. My entire scum read on pindicator is mostly based on thinking scum didnt know about thrawn and that Comm decided to try and save himself and pindicator.

Commodore

It's not very heavy on reasoning, just that he doesn't think anything's changed/ When I question him about why:

I'm annoyed that I had to drop character because I was too mean or something.  Being House is fun.  Idiots.

Responding to Lewwyn's question.  I had been on Commodore for a long while.  I was convinced he was scum.  I was trying to convince you that he was scum.  You were trying to convince me Thrawn was scum, as I thought Thrawn was just playing poorly.  You basically sold me, but then Commodore came in at a time when it was between him and Pindicator, as you had not yet convinced many people on Thrawn, and voted for Thrawn.  This makes no sense to me because he catches no heat for a self-preservation vote on Pindicator... unless Pindicator is scum and he doesn't want to see him go down.  So this super-extra-califragilistically convinces me that Commodore is scum and also makes me think Pindicator is scum.  At that point, its your scumdar vs mine and while I trust yours, I trust mine more.  

For the record, I'd do the same again because even though Thrawn was scum(ish) I still think Commodore and Pindicator are scum.  Until I see one of them flip hero, at which point I will be sufficiently cowed.  So if you'd like to see my ego take a hit, let's vote for Commodore and if he flips blue you can at least have that self-satisfaction.  (He won't, because scum.)

Re: small footprint - I'm not really a hot potato vote guy.  And I gave my collected thoughts yesterday here.

My overall read at this point with some, but not much, additional info:

Scum: Commodore
Probably scum: Pindicator
More scummy than towny but still plenty of doubt: Jabbz, GES, Adrien, Kaiser
True neutral read: WK, sunrise089
More towny than scummy but still plenty of doubt: Rowain, Bob, Alhambram, Cyneheard
Probably town: novice, Lewwyn
Would be very surprised if not town: Meiz

I don't think those lists provide much value but I don't want anyone to think I'm hiding my thoughts.

My bold. This is not true from my Day 1 rereading. Gaspar did not show himself to be convinced of Comm for a long time its something that occured near the end of the day once there was secondary bandwagons in play. He didn't try that hard to convince me that comm was scum, he just asked why is no one wanting to vote for comm? Then he was basically begging me to give him an out onto thrawn.
PIn questions him on it:

All along I thought Thrawn was trying too hard after criticism in 46.  I wasn't clearing him by any means but that was my read.  After seeing Lewwyn go so hard at him, I asked him to convince me.  He sort of had convinced me but immediately thereafter Comm jumped in and voted for Thrawn rather than you and it freaked my scumdar and once that happened I really wanted to stay on Commodore.  But once that became untenable, I decided I wanted to be on you because I assumed Comm wanted to save both of you.

Also, if I'm scum and your town and I don't know Thrawn is a traitor, why wouldn't I be just as happy to see either of you flip?  For that matter, why get involved in the end of day theatrics at all?

Or, y'know, alternately, I read Commodore as scum and I read him as protecting you so that's where I wanted the lynch to go.  *shrug*

This doesn't square exactly with Gaspar's votinig in the middle of the day. And it again is more tying pin to Comm. He claims his vote on pin here is because of comm's actions, but the Gaspar also had pin as his 2nd lynch candidate earlier. Basically his reason to lynch Pin changed to hinge on Comm rather than by Pin himself. All of this is very fluid Gaspar was keeping his options open and using Comm's vote to create more lynch candidates.

Let's look at Gaspar's main comm post:

And for new readers - why is Commodore scum?

Why couldn’t town Commodore vote for Thrawn if he thought Thrawn was the likeliest scum? Thrawn wasn’t unlynchable.

Better question, why is Commodore town?  He's spammed the thread full of three line garbage, classic low-effort, high-volume scum.  His day 1 consisted of sitting on me until he had no choice but to move because... I questioned you?  That's a hell of a lot of faith in novice towniness for the first 100 posts or whenever it was.  I don't even know if that was his actually reasoning it was so forgettable and poorly explained.  I can live with parking if you're Alhambram and you check into the thread once a month but Commodore jumped in enough times to contribute something.  We've gotten like 5 separate posts on what GES means by bee-boy.  I mean... if that's all it takes to be town I can go back to calling everyone idiots and chewing vicodin tic-tacs, its equally productive and way more entertaining.

The end of day vote for Thrawn I guess requires Commodore to be better at reading the room than I give him credit for.  At the time he popped in for his self-preservation vote and pulled himself away from the fake reread, Pindicator was the lead target.  If he jumps on pin at that point, I'd bet dollars to donuts that pindicator hangs.  If he waited 5 more minutes I might have talked pindicator and Lewwyn into voting for Commodore and Comm hangs.  So he had to jump in when he did.  But picking Thrawn you have to bank on Lewwyn's hammer working, which the scooter episode on Day 2 in 46 tells you is no sure thing, and you have to bank on a lot of people who weren't around in the last 2 hours before the lynch coming out of the woodwork to move the vote to Thrawn.  Its a lot of moving pieces and the only reason I can imagine doing it if I think Commodore is scum is if he also wants to save Pindicator.

Now, my read on pindicator is a lot less secure.  He spent day one fucking off doing nothing, fair play if that's due to RL issues but that's not relevant to the game here, I don't want to lynch him IRL.  I particularly hate pity plays and he was drowning in an ocean of it at the end of the day, and mostly what I saw at the end of day was anger, not scum-hunting, which is natural given his position on the leaderboard but also a null tell towards alignment because both sides get angry when they're about to be lynched.  He's been a lot more productive today, of course.  But I mean, what's he really done beyond throw shade at those who suspect him.  That's a pretty easy summon, too.

If I hate to rate the conviction of those two reads, it would be I'm 90% on Commodore and like 55% on Pindicator.

This it. The first paragraph is basically some good reasons why comm is scum.
The second paragraph though is the narrative. He's saying that Comm voting for thrawn and putting himself in danger is a sign he's tryign to save Pin which is an odd read. My read of course is that by putting himself in danger Comm is scum hunting. BUT if Gaspar is Scum and Pin is innocent then Comm KNOWS he is not in danger because Gaspar wiill switch to pin or thrawn OFF of Comm. Gaspar doesn't NEED to switch onto the final mislynch, he only needs to switch off Commodore!

Then he tiies pin to being scum with comm.

WHY ISN"T GASPAR VOTING PIN OVER ME? Because he can pick pin off at his leisure now.

[Meiz]

I would like to get Lewwyn's role resolved today, since I think that's the best play for town to get the game forward.