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Are you, in fact, a pregnant lady who lives in the apartment next door to Superdeath's parents? - Commodore |
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WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!
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GG Lewwyn. Sucks that we got you wrong, but at the same time it should provide us with a ton of stuff to parse through. If you didn't give us every tone and content read you have in those masses of text, I'd be surprised.
GG to Cyne as well, though I'm not sure I'm upset hes gone, as I feel he would make a great topic of conversation for scum to lead us towards tomorrow. It certainly narrows the field a bit. I've only skimmed at this point, so I have to go back and see reasons, but I'm more than a little surprised Rowain swapped out of the lynch. Part of me feels he could have stayed (assuming he was a wolf) and no one would have batted an eye. He's riding high on town cred right now, which is both comforting and scary at the same time, given that I trust him, but I'm worried I'm being led along by the nose at the same time. I still don't buy the Pindi swap. Maybe I'm paranoid, but I can't see killing myself to save someone I thought was town, especially when there was that much pressure on him. As I said before, you dying instead of him wouldn't have helped town, it would have left too many questions unresolved and forced us to repeat the next days arguments again. I also don't think it had any chance of working. I feel like you knew these things as well, and were shooting for some easy town cred. I really hate having to ask, but if someone could point me to a few key "gaspar is bad" posts, I would appreciate it. Makes it easier to make sure I see what people are arguing when I try to do my reads. I'm pretty sure I'm doing a bad enough job that there is no way scum kills me tonight, too many better choices, so I might actually get something solid in the next 72h or so. Thankfully the number of people left will make rereading stuff (after I catch up) easier. (October 8th, 2020, 10:32)sunrise089 Wrote:(October 8th, 2020, 10:26)Meiz Wrote:(October 8th, 2020, 10:24)sunrise089 Wrote: @novice - I’m surprised you’re pushing back on my role PM question to Jabbz, which he has incidentally totally ignored despite having zero vote pressure on him. I’m not asking him to quote anything, I’m asking him for account for what I see as an incredible sequence of events where he opens the PM to grab the role name, looks past the description of the role, and loads another site to learn how the role works. Not additional nuance about it, but the basic mechanics/class of role it is. Why are you protecting Jabbz here?! Could you give me a hand sunrise and point me to what started that line of questioning? IE whatever you're responding to novice about in the first part of that chain. (October 8th, 2020, 10:54)sunrise089 Wrote: @Jabbz - are you not in the US? I am, west coast. But I was also up till 2-3 am my time, and got up 15 minutes before I had to take my daughter to her dentist. (Smile looks great btw, not sure its worth as much as I spent, but it does look great :P ) I take sleeping pills, so if I don't get enough sleep I'm basically non functional in the cerebral department after I wake up for an hour or so.
@Jabbz, I have some post numbers. Some of the posts are lengthy
Lewwyn has a number of good posts explaining things. Some are quite lengthy though 1292 is a good post because it shows that Gaspar only wants to lynch WarriorKnight voters. Especially when you compare this to beginning of day 1017. Now Cyneheard's town 1017 makes Gaspar look like he's waffling on me and Lewwyn because he knows we're town and is trying to keep the mislynch train running as long as possible 1304 is a wall of text, but the TLDR at the bottom is exactly my impression when i re-read day 1 after knowing Comm is scum 1341 Meiz has a case against him in 1257 I have a theory about a Gaspar-Commodore's post in 1275
Suffer Game Sicko
Dodo Tier Player
Sorry, last point was supposed to be a theory about a Gaspar-Commodore pair due to Commodore's post in Day 1, which I lay out in 1275
Suffer Game Sicko
Dodo Tier Player
Okay, I was out for a while, but what is happening here, Jerry?? Or, to quote Jerry himself, whaaat's going ooon over here?!
Manifestos! Late-running trains! Cyne dropping out (understandable; my condolences) and being revealed as town! Lewwyn was also town, and doing a pretty good George impersonation at the end there! Probably a lot more too, but there's over 10 pages of new content since I last skimmed the thread, and I haven't read it all! It's madness, Jerry! Role Madness!
Statler: This game is awful!
Waldorf: Terrible! Statler: Disgusting! Waldorf: See you next game? Statler: Of course. GL all, time to heckle from the other side.
I do not think I am going to die tonight, I believe it is more dangerous for Sunrise or Meiz.
However I want to give some thoughts here anyway in case I should turn up dead. First of all, we are down to 11 players and likely will be only 10 at sunrise. Some people already stated that they want to lynch pindicator Day4 next to receive full disclosure of the Day1 events. If pindicator is town, this will bring us down to 8 before the following lynch on Day5. If I understand the rules correctly, that means we are at lylo on Day5 as the lynch and wolf kill night 5 would end up with 6 remaining players, 3 of which WW. For that reason, I ask everyone of you to carefully reconsider their motives for lynching pindicator next and the real value we will get out if he should turn up town. I personally believe that there is few to gain if he should turn up town and so I am currently questioning myself if I believe his play is scummier than other peoples play so far. Lynching him and revealing him as a WW would be great, but that is true for every WW in this game so we really should consider the ramifications of him or anyone else for that matter turning up town. Personally I am more wary of Gaspar and Novice at the moment, I need to get a clearer look at their Day2 and Day3 voting in connection with their late switch on pindicator without further information. Rowain needs a special mention here as well, as he remains on my suspect list, event though apparently everybody else seems fine with his play I am wavering between seeing good and valid arguments and feeling scuminess from the way he posts, buddies or reacts to certain game circumstances. From the top of my head, Rowain and Gaspar were for example to people discussing the case that Gazglum might have been scum, which I believe is a misdirection the wolves wanted to achieve by not revealing his alignment or role on Night1. The question is why they were delving into this direction and where they did lead the discussion from there, I believe both let the topic fall as it did not take to much traction. Alhambran, Bob and Jabbz could be wolves, but it is difficult to say due to their low posting (like me). I have the best feeling about Alhambram but it is not by much. Meiz and Sunrise are most in town for me, beware GrandMaMeiz though
With CH gone too we have 1 mislynch left before we are at lylo. With CH and Lewwyn both town it becomes clear that the wolves pushed C hard. And as Lewwyn said it was a setup to get him lynched.
One reason is he is a strong pusher and can get town lined up behind him. Another reason is he can sniff out Gaspar which according to his posts on Day 3 he did. So who are the 3 missing wolves: 1) Gaspar as talked about by Lewwyn. 2) novice I tzalked about how novice went from "Why is Commodore scum" to hammering him. That is not much you might say but that is the case with novvice. His way to play is always leaving very little footprints. That makes it so hard to catch him as scum. And he is absolutly one who happily sacrifices 1 of the pack to get deep cover and ride for the win. He did it before and I believe he did it again this game. 3) Bob We have talked about how Lewwyn played different between Lewwyn WW46 and Lewwyn WW 48 but Bob also played different. He participated he did roleplaying and he wrote long posts. Bob so far managed to be on none killing vote. I must admit that for me Bob is the weakest case of those 3 and he is only there because I have doubts that there are 3 wolves voting Commodore. So from this listed he should be the last lynched Whom to I see as alternate candidates if 1 of the above is town: Kaiser His role claim and the fact that Gazglums role got hidden makes me suspect that he is a town-backup. His day with attacking me for the info-lynch idea and a very weak case to jumping on Adrien and then at the last second switching to Commodore does nothing to make me less suspicious. Maybe lynch him even before Bob. Meiz His claimed ability is that he has no need to prove it or explain why he used it in a certain way. That is a nice claim for scum. IMO if we mislynch on any of the following day (= we are at lylo) then Meiz should shoot first thing in the morning ad prove his ability. If he hits a villager then the game is over but if he hits scum the game goes on. If Meiz refuses to take the shot then he is a scum and should be lynched. One of sunrise/Alhambram It is often the case that from 2 neighbors 1 is scum but in all honesty I could not say which one and I didn't see Lewwyns case vs Alhambram.
I've reread D1 & most of D2 as they often contain good tells, especially the first day when wolves main objective is to avoid getting lynched. Sorry for the long post, tried to leave the most notable points to keep it shorter. D3 has been ignored for now due to time limits.
My townreads with fresh eyes: Gaspar Taking back the Lewwyn's scumbuddy accusation, because, well you know  I felt you were sitting in the sidelines for most of D3 and started to get paranoid.Commodore used one of his first shade throwings against Gaspar, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752407 I feel at this point scum usually throws small shade in the hopes of town picking up on it. He was the 4th voter on Gaspar (previous voters being Gold Ergo Sum, novice, sunrise089), so I believe he though to get something going here. This feeling is enhanced with his later comment on sunrise's accusations, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752529 "keep suspecting Gaspar" - is the tell I'm getting from that post. I said it at the time, but I reflected on Gaspar's comment regarding the early gamestate (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752618), having the exact feeling myself at the exact same time. Probably doesn't help others, but I got more of a town lean from the comment due to that. At least he did not use this as an excuse for lack of reads later, and I don't think there was a need to start justifying lack of reads as a wolf here. I think Wolf-Gaspar would have had a very valid excuse to go against thrawn in the end based on his previous suspicion, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752598 He expanded later what he meant with thrawn being tryhard, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752641 - Gaspar sticking to his to-be Commodore read, and not justifying himself back to thrawn in the end gives him townpoints. As the day progressed, I think Gaspar was one of the main elements on directing attention towards Commodore. He votes Commodore, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752753 At this phase Commodore has started to pick up votes already: Lynch votes 3 votes: thrawn/Q (Lewwyn, Gaspar, pindicator) 3 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Meiz, Cyneheard, WarriorKnight) 3 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz, novice, Rowain) 3 votes: Gold Ergo Sum/Omar Little (Gazglum, AdrienIer, Commodore) 2 votes: Gaspar/Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum, Q) 1 votes: Alhambram/Homer Simpson (Bobchillingworth) 1 votes: Lewywn/Retsuko (sunrise089) 1 votes: no lynch (Alhambram) 1 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser) So I don't think him pushing brakes on thrawn voting, and voting for Commodore make sense with Gaspar&Commodore wolf pairing. Gaspar keeps hammering on Commodore for rest of the day with legit reasons: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752766 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752810 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752838 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752849 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752857 He also recognized the strange move from Commodore to switch a vote from Pindicator to thrawn (and therefore putting himself in more danger), https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752874 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752880 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752891 I don't believe in Gaspar making a play to push scumbuddy to the gallows the way he did already on D1. And the commitment continued in D2, ultimately resulting in a scum lynch. https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753326 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753385 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753441 etc. novice & Rowain & sunrise I've lumped them together as their general play has felt & still feels good and genuine. Openly stating their thoughts and no scum inconsistencies I could see. I've felt we've been mostly on the same page with the reads (and Gaspar fits here as well). novice is an early Commodore voter, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752702 Followed by Rowain, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752724 sunrise has earlier picked up on quite nice suspicion point against Commodore, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752651 - The suspicion itself is not big, but also something I think Commodore's scum buddy wouldn't latch on. I think a minor/null point for sunrise, but novice picking up on this later gives townpoints for him: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752725 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752841 - I find it unlikely that Commodore's scum partner would pick up on this read by sunrise, but rather ignore it (as a minor read like this is easily forgotten / unnoticed by others). novice feels very genuine on picking up on it. Gaspar also takes notice, enhancing my town read for Gaspar, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752775 The fact that sunrise much much later recognizes Gaspar's comment above, and puts Gaspar as more town due to it, gives town points for sunrise as well. (and this is also the reason I'm lumping these townreads together, though I'm still pretty sure I'm the only one following the line of thinking  )novice keeps on enhancing the point above, further increasing my town read on him: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752770 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752777 Near deadline, Rowain does make a critical vote move, switching away from Commodore and onto thawn. Suspicious move in itself, and worth stating out, even when I'm personally willing to give a pass for this. He is very committed on Pind&Commodore lynch during the night time & D2, and in hindsight thrawn's play deserved a vote. Similar type of move from sunrise to vote on thrawn, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752899. but he had a non-impact vote on Lewwyn, and I can see why he would vote thrawn. Pindicator was the running candidate at this point. During Night 1, novice keeps going after Commodore's GES read: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753021 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753025 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753033 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753038 - more town points Additionally I think Commodore's build up for a case against novice gives 1 town point, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753232 Rowain posts his plan to go forward, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753237 - Made sense at the time and still does. I think more indicative of logical thinking that scum preparing to bus his buddy. https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753368 - I find the conclusion logical and good. These are my top town that shouldn't be lynched this game, barring stange occurences in the future. Also a townlean on Alhambram Skipped D1, but I've liked his bigger posts starting from N1. His reasoning for voting Commodore seems strange coming from a wolf-pal: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753352 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753361 --- GES Early banter with Commodore accusing him as lazy scum. Commodore had the same read during N1 as well, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753258 - Can't say much in the way or another, as the read never progresses from here. GES had no actions against Commodore during D1. During Night 1, states that one of Pind & Commodore needs to go, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752951 And later, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753136 - a town point. D2 reads, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753658 And vote on Commodore, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753827 Wouldn't be the next one to lynch for me. I still think Pindicator's D1 & D2 point to him as Commodores scumbuddy. D1 feels odd with Pindicator being in danger and he not seemingly taking a closer look at Commodore (the other much spoken lynch candidate) due to not getting past the RP. I like Rowain's points against Kaiser: https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753368 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753373 https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753467 and from novice, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753375 Mostly on the fence regarding Commodore. Seems like a good candidate to drill into next. Bob Once more an interesting point from Rowain, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753449 Generally speaking Bob seems to be playing in his own bubble with the vote analyses and votes (for example the one on novice, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753338). Did Bob ever comment or adjust based on novice's reply (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753354)? I can't recall. Anyway, it feels strange to see him have such a strong opinion to brake Kaiser accusation, while at the same time getting a feeling of him needing to paint Rowain in bad light. He also doesn't seem to like the idea of Commodore lynching, though suggests Vig shooting him. Posts this later, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753538 - Besides stating that ok with Commodore lynch, does not seem to dig into details why Commodore is the lynch, on points that would make him scum. Finally votes Commodore while bringing a new specific read on damning him, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753545 Which is later switched back to novice, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753582 <out of time so posting unsure how his play went eod2> - a potential connection to scum-Commodore and Kaiser? Had this read on him from D1 on vote reason against Gasapr, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752625 Very unsure on Jabbz. I still think his skipping of D1 was very odd. Still, novice's point of scum not leaving the vote on Commodore is worth thinking (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753212). Kind of strange wolf banter on D1, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752509 As well as this comment, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752668 More of a process of elimination lynch for me at this point. |
