WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[pindicator]

Where did I say I have to vote you today? I'm giving Gaspar credit for his D1, which you have ignored in your read.

My mistake, I reread the big post after skimming it initially. But you are sure stubbornly on me yet wouldn't vote me yesterday despite clinging to the Comm-saved-Pin D1 theory.

You should have voted me yesterday Meiz.

For good.

So we have a scum Role-blocker, a scum ability to prevent alignment and role of a kill, a scum ability to remove a power permanently, and I'd guess just one more scum ability unless there's a stacked JOAT out there.

I was going to come out and say this was all convenient of you, however this would be the most creative claim sequence and totally unnecessary. Scum knows I was protecting you, and they know you said you were going to rightly save the ability to the end. Plus it seems a good balance to town having 2 vig abilities.

I find this all believable.

[Meiz]

If you read my eod post you see what I've been thinking of your game. I'm very surprised you had Gaspar & novice as the next lynch steps. Why, besides the tinfoil hat for ultimate wolf plays?

Simply put There is exactly 1 WK voter left (pindi ) and I can't shake the feeling that he is town. so what do you think the wolves did D2? Assuming pindi is town you have at least 2 wolves on Commodore himself. Yopu can either believe they were the hard pushers or you believe they were the late comers. Yes I had both Gaspar and novice in my towncamp. But you can't argue with result that Lewwyn for one was a honest villager. His srtrong push for saving C was just Lewwyn being Lewwyn and sticking to his reads. I still don't understand why the town was so f*** lazy and had no interest in D3.

Meiz just assume you, me and pindi are town.
leaves

sunrise/alhambram, Gaspar, GES,Jabbz, Kaiser, Bob

Of course there are many possible theories loeft. You can say tha Jabbz, GES (with or without pindi) are a scumpair who cleared themself rather nice and so on but I rather believe they are honest .
@Kaiser whom did you visit  with which result?

Then go, reread Gaspar's day 1 and come back with your read on him, instead of following Lewwyn who pushed WK to the grave and used his D3 to look most of the players with wolf glasses on and yelling how they are scum.

[pindicator]

Basically I don't see how scum gains advantage from stripping you. Sure you might get a good shot off, absolutely positive. But if you're wrong, you probably just lost town the game, whereas scum can come back from that. As a wolf, those are good odds in my book.

Jabbz, he said he was going to save it to the end, which is the right play for that ability. They couldn't safely kill him with me possibly protecting him. This makes a lot of sense actually.

What are your thoughts on Rowain's premise, Jabbz?

[Rowain]

For your first part, Rowain posted before deadline. How would you react when a player claims you are required to prove your role later or get lynched, while reading a message from GM that your power has been lost?

The problem is I can see wolf Meiz exactly react to my post with "My power has been stripped-Why did you post about it" so I would say it is a null-tell

I don't think an infight between us 2 (or this discussion) is helpful for town but YMMV.

[Meiz]

I think it's helpful if you re-read D1 & Gaspar's play and come back to tell us if you think he was bussing Commodore.

[pindicator]

Meiz, look at these two posts by Gaspar in day 3. Bold is mine.

Some thoughts while I process all the stuff that just happened...

• I don't like Weeb Fox's game at all, and I think it fits with a scum game.  In 46 he was super hyper active.  He rolls scum here so decides to go with a more traditional game.  He gets a ton of shit for it so he decides he needs to start driving the bus.  But while it has all the same beats as his game in 46, it lacks the same conviction.  There's yelling and there's yelling with purpose.  This game has been all noise.  Forget how right/wrong he's been and just listen to cadence.  Its wrong.  But I'm not going to spend 48 hours arguing with Weeb Fox.  I will be listening to him with great interest, though.
  
• pindicator sounds like himself overnight, but again, the self-pity stuff is just a common scum play. And I STILL think Commodore hung Thrawn to save him.
  [B
• I think there were scum on both sides of the vote though, its too facile to clear all the Commodore voters, especially with so many of them.  I would look in particular hard at late Commodore voters after we investigate the WK voters.  This means Jabbz, GES and Kaiser. Rowain mostly gets to slide because it was evident all along he would swap back to Commodore.  Basically I give Meiz, novice and Rowain full credit for the Commodore lynch.  Everyone else gets partial or none.[/b]
  
• Kaiser's claim seems easy to fake and in fact even if legit seems like a scum role - kill a guy, take his identity, get his powers?  IDK, but it certainly doesn't clear him.
  
• I'm skeptical of anyone who wasn't a likely night kill posting WoT overnight.  Its such an easy play.  FOS Alhambram, Pindicator, Lewwyn, Kaiser.
  
• Also not sure why anyone is role-claiming right now?  There's still too many of us alive and if I were scum the thing I'd be most wary of us the fact that there's more roles than normal out there.
  

After all that, I'm gonna start with Cyneheard.  I thought Weeb Fox's WK case was pretty weak by his standards and I know why pindicator was on it and the other two are dead.  Cyne, what did you find so convincing, why was Commodore not scum in your eyes and uh, what are your thoughts on some other players, since you also have a pretty small footprint.

Then later his tune changes:

I don't really know what to say at this point, I just read like 150 posts and what I got out of it is that several players are getting irritable and everyone is sort of waiting to see how Weeb Fox/Pindicator turns out and so this day is pretty much a wash.  The only ones doing much if any attempted hunting by my admittedly skim read are Weeb Fox, Ol Dirty T (this was great GES) and Alhambram and I wouldn't in the slightest be surprised to see two of those flip scum.

We have to hang a WK voter today.  There's a lot of info in how people have tried to steer the post-lynch landscape right now that we'll have to come to tomorrow, but the combination of likelihood of hitting scum and the info to be gleaned from that players interactions post-death is too alluring to make any other choice.

I suspect I've gotten all out of Cyneheard that I'm going to get.  So given both have played well today, I have to ask myself, who did I suspect more coming out of the night.  The two things that sway me are Weeb Fox's reaction to Thrawn's death, where he was immediately aiming to clear himself and his attitude EOD2, where he was flinging all the shit possible to try and save Commodore.  Both of those times, he felt super scummy.  The rest of the time, he's felt like normal Weeb Fox.  But that, plus the circumstantial evidence, is enough for this Doc to declare that it isn't Lupus, its Weeb Fox.

Meiz, I beg you listen. Gaspar is doing exactly what I caught El Grillo doing in WW47! He starts off saying that scum has to be among Commodore and WarriorKnight voters and we shouldn't just focus on one group, but then he only voted Cyneheard and only when Cyneheard was removed did he vote Lewwyn, saying we had to vote for a WarriorKnight voter! It's exactly what El Grillo did! Saying we have to look everywhere but then not actually looking!

[pindicator]

Ha, then I mess up the bold in the first quote

[Rowain]

I think it's helpful if you re-read D1 & Gaspar's play and come back to tell us if you think he was bussing Commodore.

Meiz I do get your point. I had you, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise and novice all firmly in townland. I was sure that the wolves wouldn't bus their roleblocker that hard. But Lewwyn made a good post on him. And of the 3 cases that Lewwyn put out then this was the one I thought most probable.
But then D1 T-10 minutes
Lynch votes
5 votes: Pindicator/Henchman 21 (Meiz, Cyneheard, WarriorKnight, Gazglum, Q)
5 votes: thrawn/Q (Lewwyn, pindicator, Kaiser, AdrienIer, Commodore)
4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz, novice, Rowain, Gaspar)
1 votes: Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum)
1 votes: Homer Simpson (Bobchillingworth)
1 votes: Retsuko (sunrise089)
1 votes: no lynch (Alhambram)

makes me doubtful of that again. Jabbz doesn't get a free pass here as he parked it on C very early and was shocked how much traction it got.

[Rowain]

D1 T-10 minutes  
Lynch votes
5 votes: Pindicator/Henchman 21 (Meiz, Cyneheard, WarriorKnight, Gazglum, Q)
5 votes: thrawn/Q (Lewwyn, pindicator, Kaiser, AdrienIer, Commodore)
4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz, novice, Rowain, Gaspar)
1 votes: Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum)
1 votes: Homer Simpson (Bobchillingworth)
1 votes: Retsuko (sunrise089)
1 votes: no lynch (Alhambram)

makes me doubtful of that again. Jabbz doesn't get a free pass here as he parked it on C very early and was shocked how much traction it got.

[Meiz]

Meiz, look at these two posts by Gaspar in day 3. Bold is mine.

Some thoughts while I process all the stuff that just happened...

• I don't like Weeb Fox's game at all, and I think it fits with a scum game.  In 46 he was super hyper active.  He rolls scum here so decides to go with a more traditional game.  He gets a ton of shit for it so he decides he needs to start driving the bus.  But while it has all the same beats as his game in 46, it lacks the same conviction.  There's yelling and there's yelling with purpose.  This game has been all noise.  Forget how right/wrong he's been and just listen to cadence.  Its wrong.  But I'm not going to spend 48 hours arguing with Weeb Fox.  I will be listening to him with great interest, though.
  
• pindicator sounds like himself overnight, but again, the self-pity stuff is just a common scum play. And I STILL think Commodore hung Thrawn to save him.
  [B
  
• I think there were scum on both sides of the vote though, its too facile to clear all the Commodore voters, especially with so many of them.  I would look in particular hard at late Commodore voters after we investigate the WK voters.  This means Jabbz, GES and Kaiser. Rowain mostly gets to slide because it was evident all along he would swap back to Commodore.  Basically I give Meiz, novice and Rowain full credit for the Commodore lynch.  Everyone else gets partial or none.[/b]
  
• Kaiser's claim seems easy to fake and in fact even if legit seems like a scum role - kill a guy, take his identity, get his powers?  IDK, but it certainly doesn't clear him.
  
• I'm skeptical of anyone who wasn't a likely night kill posting WoT overnight.  Its such an easy play.  FOS Alhambram, Pindicator, Lewwyn, Kaiser.
  
• Also not sure why anyone is role-claiming right now?  There's still too many of us alive and if I were scum the thing I'd be most wary of us the fact that there's more roles than normal out there.
  

After all that, I'm gonna start with Cyneheard.  I thought Weeb Fox's WK case was pretty weak by his standards and I know why pindicator was on it and the other two are dead.  Cyne, what did you find so convincing, why was Commodore not scum in your eyes and uh, what are your thoughts on some other players, since you also have a pretty small footprint.

Then later his tune changes:

I don't really know what to say at this point, I just read like 150 posts and what I got out of it is that several players are getting irritable and everyone is sort of waiting to see how Weeb Fox/Pindicator turns out and so this day is pretty much a wash.  The only ones doing much if any attempted hunting by my admittedly skim read are Weeb Fox, Ol Dirty T (this was great GES) and Alhambram and I wouldn't in the slightest be surprised to see two of those flip scum.

We have to hang a WK voter today.  There's a lot of info in how people have tried to steer the post-lynch landscape right now that we'll have to come to tomorrow, but the combination of likelihood of hitting scum and the info to be gleaned from that players interactions post-death is too alluring to make any other choice.

I suspect I've gotten all out of Cyneheard that I'm going to get.  So given both have played well today, I have to ask myself, who did I suspect more coming out of the night.  The two things that sway me are Weeb Fox's reaction to Thrawn's death, where he was immediately aiming to clear himself and his attitude EOD2, where he was flinging all the shit possible to try and save Commodore.  Both of those times, he felt super scummy.  The rest of the time, he's felt like normal Weeb Fox.  But that, plus the circumstantial evidence, is enough for this Doc to declare that it isn't Lupus, its Weeb Fox.

Meiz, I beg you listen. Gaspar is doing exactly what I caught El Grillo doing in WW47! He starts off saying that scum has to be among Commodore and WarriorKnight voters and we shouldn't just focus on one group, but then he only voted Cyneheard and only when Cyneheard was removed did he vote Lewwyn, saying we had to vote for a WarriorKnight voter! It's exactly what El Grillo did! Saying we have to look everywhere but then not actually looking!

Yes he had a lazy day. So did I. So did novice. All waiting for Lewwyn to flip.