WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Rowain]

Assumption 1: I believe Jabbz' tale about "he thought he had me" because he misunderstood what his role does. Based on that I believe his roleclaim and while this role can be useful for scum I rather move him into towncamp. That means GES is town too and since I'm alive and got no message from BRick that I was altered in any way (no speach impediment etc) I don't see scum pindi visiting me. (yes yes I know one can construe cases where he is still scum. I have never a problem to see how and why someone could be scum but you have to stop sometimes).

TLDR: Jabbz,GES,pindi town

Assumption 2: Gaspar is town. I have rethought his play day1 and his push for Commodore already on day 1 doesn't fit into Gaspar is scum play. I know Lewwyn's case and yes I got swayed by it but all in all I still think Gaspar is town. In the heat of the moment everyone looks scummy.

Assumption 3: The neighbor claim is true so at the max only 1 of them is scum

That leaves:
Meiz, Kaiser, Bob, 1 of Alhzambram/sunrise as scum and that are my lynch-candidates for today.

There will be a follow up post in several hours but I have to reread the first day again to narrow the list down one more bit (5 are 1 too many as we have only 1 mislynch left)

[Kaiser]

D1 T-10 minutes  
Lynch votes
5 votes: Pindicator/Henchman 21 (Meiz, Cyneheard, WarriorKnight, Gazglum, Q)
5 votes: thrawn/Q (Lewwyn, pindicator, Kaiser, AdrienIer, Commodore)
4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz, novice, Rowain, Gaspar)
1 votes: Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum)
1 votes: Homer Simpson (Bobchillingworth)
1 votes: Retsuko (sunrise089)
1 votes: no lynch (Alhambram)

makes me doubtful of that again. Jabbz doesn't get a free pass here as he parked it on C very early and was shocked how much traction it got.

Thanks for this overview, it is quite helpful after my analysis from Day3 to revisit the theories based on alignment revelation. This is the situation just after Commodorevoted self-endangeringly onto thrawn instead of pindicator.

Theory A:
is off the table as Lewwyn turned up village

Theory B:
Is a lot less likely by now, as the only unconfirmed villager on Pindicator is Meiz, meaning the wolves should have been able to swing the vote in his direction with jumping on. This would have been potentially a dangerous play if it would have turned into a close competiton with Commodore. I personally still do not see the strong case on Commodore Day1, so I think the wolves would probably have managed to pull a Pindicator lynch with low commitment (2 wolves joining at the right moment, Commodore one of them with the defense excuse)

Theory C:
Has changed a bit as now there is at least 1 confirmed villager with novice on commodore. The thrawn train also is down to only 2 unconfirmed villagers (one of which me, I am confirmed for myself), meaning that it is at least statistically a bit more likely for both of them to be actually town.
This would mean that there would be likely 2 wolves on Commodore (among Gaspar, Rowain, Jabbz) and 1 among the other players for commodore feeling safe enough to endanger himself.
I would assume it to be more likely to find the remaining wolf among the stragglers, as this would be a place to try to hide a wolf which would not be occupied otherwise. This would also mean that the Pindi train is full of villagers from the wolf perspective, giving another reason for Commdore to try to push thrawn first in the hope of having the, at that point, more suspect pindicator as the prime lynch target for Day2.
In retrospect Gaspar's late switch seems less suspect as confirmed town Novice did the same move.

Theory D:
Has become more likely due to the high number of confirmed villagers on Pindicator and thrawn as well as Novice turning up villager on Commodore reducing on potential safety wolf.

I currently believe the following likelyhood D = C -> B, as the questions boils down if the wolves messed up on Day1 or not.
The reasoning is mostly that D means the wolves pulled to much heat on Day1 and were happy their Saviour Lewwyn showed up to give them an out for that Day, leaving 2 wolves suspect for the following days.
Theory C would assume one wolf catching heat, being already set up to provide cover later for the other wolves. So a potential game plan be executed like planned.

I might be biased here by WW47, but Pindicator is lately also giving me a better feeling similar to WW47 where I relatively early had a strong town lean on him and was correct.
Theory B would mean Meiz is likely a wolf, Rowain, Sunrise, Kaiser are highly suspect for their support of the thrawn vote. The stragglers are suspect anyway
Theory C would mean that we have to look among Jabbz, Gaspar and Rowain for 1-2 wolves.
Theory D would mean that we have to look among Rowain, Sunrise, Kaiser for their support of the thrawn vote. Meiz for a potential cover wolf

The straggler are all suspect for being available to change last minute tallies in all three theories (@Alhambram here he see another point on why no lynch is bad)

[Kaiser]

Ok some observations, people potentially misidirecting around Gazglum:
- AdrienIer #559 states his opinion on what could have happened
- Rowain #552 unhelpful result, #569 potentially Gazglum had a sacrifice power
- Meiz #632 points that the hidden alignment helps wolves, I ask him later why but do not remember to see an answer to my questions (please correct me here Meiz)

Btw Rowain, this and your very defensive to counterattack reaction are still among the major doubts I have about your alignment. I had the feeling that you were posting much but providing little content before and were griping with some of your statements, but this really up picked my suspicion at the time.
I came around to some of your posts and actually like your play today but you are not yet cleared in my book.

I am sorry that I wasted that day with research instead of getting more information on this.
I am happy that at least Rowain has Gazglum with a town marking in his recent overview, so he seems to have come around to believeing this part of my claim, not necessarily the other I assume.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

So Omar woke up round about 2:00 in morning and cannot seem fall back into those sweet dreams.  Occupational hazard, I suppose.  While trying to count them sheep, Omar had a few thoughts rattling around in his head.

Omar already said he is not particularly musically-inclined, nor caught up on proceedings with clarity, but that don't mean Omar cannot be helpful.

Omar lay around thinking about what we can figure out from declared roles.  Omar thinking go like this.

Currently, Omar still assumes three more villains to hit.  Since there is a 100% chance that three players are villains, Omar going to start with a 300% total chance to be a villain, that needs to be assigned between 10 players.  That gives a 30% chance any remaining player is a villain at random.

So this analysis will try to take out any "tone" reads, game reads, voting analysis etc., and purely look at what we might be able to figure from a pure role analysis, in increasing order of likelihood of villainy.

10) Old Tea Man--5%:  If BRick setup this game with six total villains, that means a mislynch today basically ends the game.  Seems highly unlikely.  Old Tea Man almost certainly the village vig.

9)  Omar--10%:  Omar know he village.  That said, if Omar does a self-analysis, Omar probably assign himself a 10% chance of villainy from the role analysis alone.  I would put a 95% chance of Omar's role being tracker, mainly due to novice flipping village, and Jabbz potentially able to doublecheck Omar.  Hard to imagine a villain Omar role claims D2, claims to have tracked a villager, and just rolls the dice that he guesses right, so Omar is a tracker.  Tracker a pretty village role according to the wiki and so far, the revealed roles seem to follow a village versus villain flavor from what Omar can tell (Hider/Tree Stump/Watcher/Motion Detector/Governor v. Poisoner/Roleblocker etc.).  I think if I was looking from the outside, this seems about an accurate self-assessment.  Feel free to disagree.

8)  Bee-Boy--20%:  No guarantee that Bee-Boy targeted Old Tea Man with a Bodyguard ability, but it seems unlikely a villain would have a useful role to use on Old Tea Man.  Cannot put the chance any lower, though, since it is unverifiable without Bee-Boy dying one way or the other.  Without a Tracker or Watcher etc., this would have been a great villain claim, and is still decent.

7)  Talking Dog--30%:  Omar pretty agnostic on the neighbors.  No real clarity on whether one of them is a villain or not from role alone.  Could be a real ballsy double villain fake-claim, but that seems unlikely, because as soon as one half of the pair shows and isn't a neighbor, the other villain would be an auto-lynch.  Like 99% to actually have the role.

6)  Simp--30%:  See above.

5)  Doc--35%:  On average, the lack of a claim is probably slightly more likely to be a villain, since it does not require any lies or effort.  That said, it does draw attention and it is probably easy enough to pick a role that cannot be verified off the wiki and fake-claim.  If Doc was a Doctor, that would be a good reason not to claim, but that seems a little too on the nose from BRick.

4)  Jerry!--35%:  See above.  

3)  Jabbz--40%:  Omar was hoping he could use his tracking of Bee-Boy to verify Jabbz.  Sadly, Bee-Boy cross-posted and named his target.  That made it very easy for Jabbz to chime in that Omar tracked Bee-Boy and Bee-Boy targeted Old Tea Man.  Omar still find it odd that Jabbz used his first two charges incorrectly, thus removing the opportunity for anyone to verify his claim.  He conveniently used his last charge when all the verifiable information was known.  Omar more suspicious than average on this one, but not certain by any means.

2)  Skelly--45%:  Initial roleclaim was nearly unverifiable, and then once called out to potentially verify by Old Tea Man, the role disappeared a few posts later.  Could be true.  Definitely odd.

1)  Robot--50%:  This roleclaim is almost completely unverifiable.  But Omar's real problem is that Robot claims he tipped his tin-dome that he was using his ability on Skelly, but when Skelly ended up apparently being targeted by a villain ability stripping his role, Robot dropped that claim.  That seems pretty convenient to Omar because that would have been the one time Robot's ability would have been really useful.  That said, this is not higher because I am not even sure any of us would have known Robot was tipping us off to targeting Skelly if he didn't admit it himself later.  Either Robot playing ten dimensional chess here while everyone else playing tone checkers in the church basement and reading WW46 like it's the bible, or something fishy here.


Thing is, these percentages are meant to purely reflect what Omar can suppose from the role claims alone.  If Omar were taking the entire game into account, tone, vote analysis etc., Omar would assign sunrise a much lower chance of being a villain, Meiz a lower chance of being a villain, and would probably bump Kaiser and Bob up further. But those reads are incomplete since I have only skimmed the last couple hundred posts and need to go back and really catch up on the fine details later.

Anyway, it's after 5:00 a.m. and Omar need to try to get some rest again.  Hope this was helpful at all.

[Rowain]

1)  Robot--50%:  This roleclaim is almost completely unverifiable.  But Omar's real problem is that Robot claims he tipped his tin-dome that he was using his ability on Skelly, but when Skelly ended up apparently being targeted by a villain ability stripping his role, Robot dropped that claim.  That seems pretty convenient to Omar because that would have been the one time Robot's ability would have been really useful.  That said, this is not higher because I am not even sure any of us would have known Robot was tipping us off to targeting Skelly if he didn't admit it himself later.

He posted this close to daybreak:

I do not think I am going to die tonight, I believe it is more dangerous for Sunrise or Meiz.

the highlighting is his sign whom he wanted to spy on. In the old games there was the saying "Lynch all liars" so for now Kaiser

[Rowain]

I have no reread Day 1: My current opinion is well my Assumption 1 could to be (at least partly) wrong
Assumption 2 and 3 seems to be correct.

Reason:

3 hours before lynch the tally looked like: (cutting the 1 votes)

4 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Meiz, Cyneheard, WarriorKnight,Gazglum)
3 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz, novice, Rowain)
3 votes: thrawn/Q (Lewwyn, Gaspar, pindicator)
2 votes: Gold Ergo Sum/Omar Little (, AdrienIer, Commodore)
2 votes: Gaspar/Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum, Q)

2:40 before lynch Gaspar moved from Q to Commodore tying C with pindi as toplynch

4 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Meiz, Cyneheard, WarriorKnight,Gazglum)
4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz, novice, Rowain, Gaspar)
2 votes: thrawn/Q (Lewwyn,  pindicator)
2 votes: Gold Ergo Sum/Omar Little ( AdrienIer, Commodore)
2 votes: Gaspar/Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum, Q)

8 minutes later C shows up with his pindicator vote and a promised reread. Now 90 minutes pass before the next vote happens (Q switching to pindi) in this time pindi is online but posts nothing but "woe is me. the world is so unfair" , he doesn't defend and he doesn't vote C at all. He throws alittle dirt on Meiz and is unsure about sunrise. Honestly I do understand a villager giving up or getting annoyed with town so much to lynch themselves  but not on day 1. If you suicide on day 3 or 4 after constant harassment that different because then there is something for town to look through. But on Day1 the only villager you know and can have a feeling about is you and it is always better to lynch player X then yourself then. Of course if the other candidate is the scum -roleblocker you rather want to die for him.

But what to make with last night scanresults: Well the easiest solution is Jabbz and GES are both scum with pindi or Assumption 1 (all 3 are town despite the above)
Alternates: At least GES is town and scum pindi did visit me to do whatever. Perhaps scum have a rolescanner and he used this (I'm sure he must give BRick a reason for visiting a player) that would be fitting with a roleblocker (and the traitor too).

Comment 2: We know scum had a roleblocker so how likely is it they have not only a 3-shot-roleblocker but also a permanent roleblocker?


What does all this mean for todays lynch? well lynching pindi is back on the menu. Meiz story seems far fetched and Kaiser looks bad too.

[Rowain]

To add Meiz is the one I waffle constantly: I don't like his story about his power. But then if pindi is scum Meiz does look far better. He is constantly defending Gaspar (started even day 1).

[pindicator]

I have no reread Day 1: My current opinion is well my Assumption 1 could to be (at least partly) wrong
Assumption 2 and 3 seems to be correct.

Reason:

3 hours before lynch the tally looked like: (cutting the 1 votes)

4 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Meiz, Cyneheard, WarriorKnight,Gazglum)
3 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz, novice, Rowain)
3 votes: thrawn/Q (Lewwyn, Gaspar, pindicator)
2 votes: Gold Ergo Sum/Omar Little (, AdrienIer, Commodore)
2 votes: Gaspar/Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum, Q)

2:40 before lynch Gaspar moved from Q to Commodore tying C with pindi as toplynch

4 votes: pindicator/Henchman 21/Gary (Meiz, Cyneheard, WarriorKnight,Gazglum)
4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Jabbz, novice, Rowain, Gaspar)
2 votes: thrawn/Q (Lewwyn,  pindicator)
2 votes: Gold Ergo Sum/Omar Little ( AdrienIer, Commodore)
2 votes: Gaspar/Gregory House (Gold Ergo Sum, Q)

8 minutes later C shows up with his pindicator vote and a promised reread. Now 90 minutes pass before the next vote happens (Q switching to pindi) in this time pindi is online but posts nothing but "woe is me. the world is so unfair" , he doesn't defend and he doesn't vote C at all. He throws alittle dirt on Meiz and is unsure about sunrise. Honestly I do understand a villager giving up or getting annoyed with town so much to lynch themselves  but not on day 1. If you suicide on day 3 or 4 after constant harassment that different because then there is something for town to look through. But on Day1 the only villager you know and can have a feeling about is you and it is always better to lynch player X then yourself then. Of course if the other candidate is the scum -roleblocker you rather want to die for him.

But what to make with last night scanresults: Well the easiest solution is Jabbz and GES are both scum with pindi or Assumption 1 (all 3 are town despite the above)
Alternates: At least GES is town and scum pindi did visit me to do whatever. Perhaps scum have a rolescanner and he used this (I'm sure he must give BRick a reason for visiting a player) that  would be fitting with a roleblocker (and the traitor too).

Comment 2: We know scum had a roleblocker so how likely is it they have not only a 3-shot-roleblocker but also a permanent roleblocker?


What does all this mean for todays lynch? well lynching pindi is back on the menu. Meiz story seems far fetched and Kaiser looks bad too.

Rowain, I'm really trying not to go back to the woe is me part. This is part of why I wanted people to lynch me over Lewwyn yesterday - Lewwyn was just the better town to keep around if you had to lynch one of me/him. I can't believe that all the Lewwyn voters wouldn't see this either. Part of why I decided on protecting you over Meiz last night is because I don't think town can rally around a town-Meiz. The way he's playing is just putting people off. I think they have a chance to rally around a town-you. Of course tonight I'll go back to my little guessing game with scum - maybe I'm trying ruse them and this fit against Meiz is just a feint to lure them in.

I think Comment 2 is very spot on. I thought maybe that would be a balance to 2 role vigs from village. But you're right that a neat solution is that Meiz and Kaiser just made it up.

Why would they make it up though? Meiz had all the town credit in the world at that point. That's what I'm stumbling over by going down the line of thinking of a Meiz+Kaiser team.

I still like my theory that scum decided to come out of the gate attacking each other. That makes me suspect Gaspar, Meiz, and GES as the last three. Maybe sunrise instead of one of Meiz/GES with his first attack on Gaspar? There are too many people asking questions but just not doing anything with cases.

I'll try to re-read Kaiser. I've got a sick dog, a computer that sometimes decides to stop working (the network adapter died 2 minutes before night deadline and I was rushing to do all the resetting to get it to work again to be able to post what I did), and I'm supposed to go wine tasting tomorrow but I'm probably going to have to cancel. My head is just not in a good spot for this game and I'm going to take your earlier advise to step away for the next 10-12 hours.

[Jabbz]

@Meiz: I don't see this line of argumentation between us providing anything else that is useful. We've both had our say, so for the time being at least lets leave it there and be more productive throughout the day. If you would be so kind, would you tell me who your biggest scum read/vote would be and a short bit on why? Just maybe paraphrase your argument so I can look at the person in that perspective. If your first is me, please note that, but give me your second so I can work with that.

My own reads follow, most townie to most scummy.

Town
GES: He couldn't fake what I received from the mod. While there may be some other ability that could also give me the same info, the best explanation for getting information about pindi targeting rowain is that of a tracker. I don't see the value of having a wolf with that ability, so that places him very strongly in my town camp.

Rowain: I still have some paranoia about him, but I take medication for that so it's ok. Much like GES, while there could be other abilities that could explain what happened (with Rowain as scum) it just doesn't seem likely to have fallen out the way it did. I can WIFOM it to make it seem like Rowain is scum, but based on his active poking and prodding play to date, I'm pretty sure he is town.

Neutral
Bob, Gaspar, Pindi, Alhambram (or sunrise if I am misremembering who claimed neighbor first, in which case alhambram would take sunrise's place below).
I simply have not formed much of an opinion one way or another. While I've had some vibes towards scum or town on pindi, it's balanced out enough that I'm torn.

Sunrise (or alhambram). There is a vague scum-feeling based on the reveal of the neighbor role. Something about it struck me as strange, the outing against the other parties consent, and IIRC against their request/agreement. This makes sunrise one of my targets for reading today as a result.

Scum Leans
Kaiser: Slight scum lean. Lynch all liars is a good policy. In this case I have two things holding me back somewhat. First is that deception isn't a lie. Leading scum to not kill someone by saying you are protecting them, then actually using your abilities to protect someone else is just good play.

Still, much like my concerns with Meiz, it's all very convenient. So I figured I'd look at all the possible ways I could see this rolling out, and only come up with two real possibilities. The following assumesums town meiz would never lie about being roleblocked, which I think is reasonable. 

• A: [Possible] Scum Kaiser plans to fake visit Scum Meiz. Town or third party Rollblocks Meiz throwing a wrench in things because a real voyeur would see who did said blocking. Kaiser now has to backtrack.
  

• B: [Unlikely] Scum Kaiser actually has inherited powers, and plans to use on Scum meiz for cover; meiz plans to fake roleblock.  I don't see scum fake claiming a role block here because that puts his scum partner at real risk, while also making himself look fishy. Could possibly get one town lynch by saying kaiser saw someone roleblock meiz that claimed nothing or something else for night actions, but at best you get one town while putting one or two scum at risk. Just not worth it.
  

• C: [Highly unlikely] Scum Kaiser actually has inherited powers, and plans to use on Scum meiz for cover; meiz actually gets roleblocked. This scenario makes zero sense. Kaiser could safely lay claim to whoever visited meiz, providing cover for himself, and provides a much better explanation for meiz than his current one.
  

• D: [Plausible] Scum Kaiser plans to fake visit town meiz. This is very risky. If anyone else visits an already somewhat suspicious meiz, this could backfire spectacularly. Since this is town meiz, he was actually roleblocked. It has to be a town or 3rd party roleblock because scum wouldn't set themselves up to fail by planning a fake visit to someone who will be visited by scum, and then be forced to lie about who visited. This leaves scum kaiser backtracking.
  

• E: [zero chance] Town Kaiser plans to visit scum or town meiz. Meiz does or does not get rollblocked. Kaiser has information chooses not to share it for some reason and lies instead. No possibility out of this makes sense. If meiz doesn't get rollblocked, that makes him a liar, and kaiser now knows. If meiz does get rollblocked that makes him honest, at least about being visited, and would share that info with group. No reason for town to lie.
  

• F: [Possible] Town Kaiser plans to fake visit meiz. I'm not sure it matters whether meiz is town or scum, or was faking or had really been roleblocked. It's possible he caught the bolded part implying Kaiser was going to check him, in which case it would likely eliminate a fake roleblock claim. He could also have missed that, even though scum are likely to parse everything said about them very thoroughly. There is just know way to know whether or not he would catch it and read into it what Rowain did/Kaiser meant. I just don't see this changing how Meiz of any stripe would react. Kaiser then says he was faking.
  

So from my perspective we are left with good possibilities of

1. Kaiser and meiz are both scum, who got hit with bad luck.
   
2. Kaiser is scum and meiz is town. It's risky, but since scum wasn't planning on doing anything to meiz not horrible so. Could provide some good cover. Less likely than the other two.
   
3. Town Kaiser was practicing deception.
   

Of those two, I feel the second is more likely. If the first was true, it would not take much for kaiser to make up a valid justification for why he bolded meiz's name, assuming anyone asks. 

Still, even the best possible option for Kaiser requires some deception, and once we see that, it taints everything else he has said or will say to some degree.



Meiz: Moderate scum lean. Given that there was a scum rollblocker, it's not completely unreasonable there should be a town one. Given that there was either a town roll that hid info on death in order to pass the roll along to another townie, or a scum roll that hid information upon kill, its not impossible that town could have something similar. I find it unlikely though. If gaz's ability hid his roll so his inheritor could get that information, that ultimately helps town to some degree. It preserves the cover for the inheritor, but also puts the inheritor under suspicion. Net win somehwat for town. If the killer had an ability to hide the alignment and role, that's a solid scum role. 

What Meiz is claiming is a town ability that's ultimately largely anti-town. Combined with the timing of his loss of said ability, and no one claiming the deed to this point, I find that problematic in the extreme. Should someone claim it, I'd be inclined to believe them, as scum already lost a roleblocker. This would also greatly reduce my suspicion of Meiz. Until that point he remains my most suspicious.

Meiz

[Rowain]

Kaiser: Slight scum lean. Lynch all liars is a good policy. In this case I have two things holding me back somewhat. First is that deception isn't a lie. Leading scum to not kill someone by saying you are protecting them, then actually using your abilities to protect someone else is just good play.

a) Yes but for that to work you have to post it earlier than at DL.
b) He claims he had not used it all.