WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Rowain]

Tally
3 votes: Kaiser (Bobchillingworth, Gaspar, Rowain)
2 votes: Meiz (pindicator, Jabbz)

[Jabbz]

Kaiser: Slight scum lean. Lynch all liars is a good policy. In this case I have two things holding me back somewhat. First is that deception isn't a lie. Leading scum to not kill someone by saying you are protecting them, then actually using your abilities to protect someone else is just good play.

a) Yes but for that to work you have to post it earlier than at DL.
b) He claims he had not used it all.

To your b point, yeah I was just trying to provide an example of valid deception. To your a however, I hadn't thought about that actually.

That could be quite helpful. If Kaiser swings, and noone steps up to claim roleblocker (which at this point would be kinda strange) then the only scenario I see that fits is Scum kaiser visiting scum meiz. 

TBH though I'm expecting someone to parse my post and tell me what I screwed up

[Rowain]

What Meiz is claiming is a town ability that's ultimately largely anti-town. Combined with the timing of his loss of said ability, and no one claiming the deed to this point, I find that problematic in the extreme. Should someone claim it, I'd be inclined to believe them, as scum already lost a roleblocker. This would also greatly reduce my suspicion of Meiz. Until that point he remains my most suspicious.

Meiz

Are you assuming a townie stole Meiz's ability or are you suggesting that scum should claim "Hey we stole it!". (Meiz claims he got his power removed not blocked)
Ok I get it you rather believe that town has a role stealer and he should come forward.

The Gazglum part: He didn't pass it on. It was automatically inherited by Kaiser as village backup (so he claims = Gazglum had nothing to do with it)

[Jabbz]

What Meiz is claiming is a town ability that's ultimately largely anti-town. Combined with the timing of his loss of said ability, and no one claiming the deed to this point, I find that problematic in the extreme. Should someone claim it, I'd be inclined to believe them, as scum already lost a roleblocker. This would also greatly reduce my suspicion of Meiz. Until that point he remains my most suspicious.

Meiz

Are you assuming a townie stole Meiz's ability or are you suggesting that scum should claim "Hey we stole it!". (Meiz claims he got his power removed not blocked)
Ok I get it you rather believe that town has a role stealer and he should come forward.

The Gazglum part: He didn't pass it on. It was automatically inherited by Kaiser as village backup (so he claims = Gazglum had nothing to do with it)

I think Meiz never had that specific ability. I think he made it up from scratch as a cover. If a townie were to come out and say "hey, actually I took it from him, my role is X, then it would certainly ease most of my concerns regarding it. Always the possibility a scum does it, but then that presents its own problems, and its likely better for scum to let meiz swing than risk getting another verified.

I don't recall anyone thinking the power was stolen, I just assumed removed was a permanent block.

As to gaz, we're talking about basically the thing, I'm just phrasing it poorly. If a townie did indeed receive his roll as a inheritor, then I could see the role info being blocked.

[Rowain]

I don't recall anyone thinking the power was stolen, I just assumed removed was a permanent block.

Stolen as in permanently gone.

I've just been informed by GM that my power has been ripped off, so I will be unable to proof anything. A nice power by the villains I suspect.

[Meiz]

Yep, I was not blocked permanently, my role was changed to vanilla town.

[Rowain]

We have a bit more than 21 hours till DL and hurray half the players are still hedging their bets and have not voted at all.

[Meiz]

I agree, it's a sad looking day so far. I would still like to vote Pind next as I feel he is ignoring the points on why Gaspar would be town, to paint him in more bad light. For example, Rowain went back to D1 and got the new/same conclusion I had. Yet I don't see him being interested on that. Don't you find this odd Rowain?

Kaiser is hedging bets with his analysis. Very neutral take and doesn't seem to get him closer to stating his next step for lynching. Kaiser

I'll dig deeper on the game again tomorrow, now back to more relaxing leisures.

[Bobchillingworth]

Okay!  As promised, I'm going to attempt to divine anything useful from Day 3's results, though first I'll grade out how I currently see everyone remaining, though unlike Omar I'm not going to rank myself- George isn't an egotist!  Not at all!


Almost Certainly Village:

Rowain

As I noted yesterday, for those who were PAYING ATTENTION, Rowain is either town or a seriously gimped SK, or the scum started with a crazy panoply of nightkill options, and I think the former is by far the most likely!  In particular, if I was a SK who could only apparently make one night kill, I would have rioted already!  I wouldn't stand for it, Jerry!  I'd be LOSING IT here!  But Rowain seems collected to me, and like he's trying his best, and I appreciate his color-coded votes analysis looking back at prior days.  Town read!  

Pindicator

Yeah, okay, so I was voting for him Day 3, so what?  George has a right to change his mind!  I'm asserting it, Jerry!!  Specifically, unless I'm missing something about how they resolved, as GES pointed out in his analysis Pin is almost certainly telling the truth about his role and his night action yesterday, and though I hate to dive into meta analysis here (I HATE it, Jerry!  Well, maybe not that much...), what would the point of a scum bodyguard possibly be?  Even the wiki says having one would make "little sense".  So Pin's more-or-less cleared then, I think, unless he's part of a coordinated scum team with, uh, I guess GES and Jabbz?  That doesn't sound very likely to me!  


Very Likely Village

Sunrise

I am basing this read almost entirely on tone (I know, I KNOW!), but sunrise comes across as trying to be a genuinely helpful townie, like a true Good Boy!  It would be truly heartbreaking and tragic and maybe a little funny if he was actually scum, like if Lassie drowned in a well.  I guess it's possible though that he's on a scum team with Alhambram and they're claiming Neighbors to disguise their true roles, but that would be really risky because "Neighbor" is an obvious pick for Role Madness.  Anyone could foresee it, Jerry!  Or maybe they're genuine scum neighbors, with supplementary roles??  I don't know!  It's possible!  I'm falling down the rabbit hole here, people!!!  ... But it's more likely they're just telling the truth.  


Likely Village

GES

GES is role-confirmed at this point, I think!  Someone correct me if I'm wrong!  Not that George is ever mistaken!  "Tracker" is a role which could swing either way (not that there's anything wrong with that!), but given what we know or can reasonably assume about the setup at this point makes more sense to me as a village position.  It's just common sense, Jerry!  GES seems like he's trying to be helpful and I admire the dedication of anyone who can both stay in character this long and manage to pull it off really well!  He's a TREASURE, Jerry, a national treasure!  


Beats me!

Gaspar

Gaspar sounds cranky and frustrated all the time, which is totally on brand!  It's an attitude, Jerry, an attitude about nothing!  Also, who knows what his power is!  But I'm not going to push on that front!  Not gonna do it, Jerry!  No way!  Anyway, he was an early voter for Commodore and stuck with it, which by no means indicates that he ISN'T scum, but at least counts a little in his favor, in my book, The Book of George!  

Jabbz

I keep forgetting that Jabbz is in this game!  I'm not really sure why!  No, I don't CARE if that's ironic coming from me, Jerry!  People are probably getting sick of me being self-aware of not being incredibly committed to this whole production!  I'm trying, Jerry, I'm trying!  But anyway, my point is that I'm not sure what Jabbz has ever contributed, and also his role seems kind of weird and redundant for the village if GES is town, given that Cyne was!  That's RIGHT Jerry, it's back to the Meta! Right now I'd lynch him over GES, if I had to pick!  


(more) Likely scum

Alhambram

Okay I'll admit it Jerry, this guy's posts kind of bug me.  That's right, George is putting him on blast!  Watch out, I'm about to unload over here!! For one, he's usually off rambling about nothing, and two he usually takes like five posts to say what he could have in one, which either indicates a shocking inability to conduct even basic short-term planning in composing messages, or a transparent attempt to inflate his post count!  Also I STILL really don't like his Day One "no lynch" vote, which benefited only himself and would have been disastrous if enough others had gone along with it!   I wouldn't meta-analyze his Neighbor role too much though, don't see the point!  

Meiz

While I'm admitting things, I've skimmed a lot of Meiz's posts, so I don't have a great read on him as a player despite him having really flooded the zone here, like a champ!  But I do find his roleclaim, which seemed a little strange to begin with, a lot more suspicious now that he has purportedly lost the power!  BUT it's possible he's telling the truth, too!  It's not really a falsifiable claim unless we either lynch a scum with a power which backs him up, or lynch Meiz and his death information clarifies the situation!  I don't know, Jerry, and it's kind of FREAKING ME OUT over here!  BUT right now he still doesn't top my Lynch List.  Q had the power to silence people, and novice could swing votes, and we all saw what happened with Gazglum, so it's not like weird powers and day actions are out of place here!  Role Madness!!!  

Kaiser

I already explained my thinking in a post yesterday, but Kaiser's actions in the last day or so have been both strange and scummy, and I think his role claim is dubious! He certainly hasn't been giving off significant village vibes, and I'm all about vibes, Jerry!  I'm a true Vibe Man! Wait, that sounded strange, STRIKE IT FROM THE RECORD!  




Now, for Day Three:

Day 3 Lewwyn Voters

* Meiz
* GES
* novice
* Jabbz
* Alhambram
* Gaspar

So, obviously Lewwyn was Good All Along, but as I noted in a previous post the train against him was being driven from the start by the ghost of a proven villager, which was spooky, but also compelling! I wasn't around for the last several hours of voting, but it looks like all the voters who selected Lewwyn had already boarded the train before the push against Gaspar began.  

I can absolutely see why the scum would want to toss Lewwyn sooner than later given the sheer volume the guy could produce and his ability to conduct trains of his own, but I also had Lewwyn on my likely scum list, and I at least was kind of tired of the thread having ten pages of new Argle Bargle either from Lew or by people arguing with him every time I checked in, so I can also understand why even a townsperson would be willing to cut him loose for sanity's sake, especially with WK making such an impassioned case from beyond the grave!  That's RIGHT Jerry, I went there!  I calls them as I sees them!  


Day 3 Gaspar Voters

* Lewwyn
* Kaiser
* Rowain
* Pindicator

Okay, so I missed this train completely.  Like hell am I going back and rereading all (or most) of his posts, but going by Brick's final vote tally and tracker it looks like Lewwyn started the bandwagon based on reasoning which actually looks kind of spurious to me even with hindsight (Gaspar was supposed to "know" that Lewwyn would achieve Mastery of his Domain and thereby mental clarity on Day 3?  What???  What was this guy saying, Jerry?!).  

Then Kaiser joined in because he wanted to see if there was gong to be "any traction" on Gaspar, and then Rowain and Pin did too for reasons I'm not going to bother analyzing because I think they're almost certainly town regardless of how or why they voted Day 3.  

The only person I find suspicious here is Kaiser, but not for his vote, which doesn't seem particularly thought out to me but also isn't scummy in-of itself.  


Day 3 Pindicator Voters

* Bob
* sunrise

As noted, I wasn't around for the last several hours of discussion and voting (George is a busy boy, people!), but I probably wouldn't have switched off Pin regardless, based on the knowledge on hand at the time.  That's right!  I'm doubling-down, Jerry!  

Sunrise was around, but based on some (relatively) quick skimming looks like he was making a game effort to engage with Pin and justify his vote.  I guess he looks worse for not joining the Gaspar train if Gaspar is scum, though it also looks like his vote wouldn't have mattered regardless of where he placed it!  Like a metaphor for life, Jerry!  George is getting deep over here!


Okay, so, sorry, but I actually don't have useful inferences to draw from Day 3's votes!  Shocking, I know!  None of them look difficult to justify to me, though!  George sees all sides of every equation!  

Well, maybe not NO useful inferences: I think at least a couple scum helped push Lew through.  They colluded, Jerry!  Did they do so just to be rid of Lew, or also to save Gaspar?  Beats me!  I'd guess Meiz and Alhambram from the list, but really any of them could make sense!  And then maybe scum Kaiser helping spread votes out a little by being on Gaspar!

[Kaiser]

I feel that my role is most helpful when I can confirm certain actions on players which are more unlikely to actually take place in the early days. I already wasted one charge on an early visit on novice and decided that I will try to keep it for later.
So I decided to fake the use of my power to disincentivize Wolves going for Meiz. Turns out I would have had something to see/or not to see last night, but I decided wrongly apparently.

I want you all to consider:
- What I have gained by claiming my role and the inheritance of Gazglums role?
- Why I would point out that I faked the visit instead of making something up that would have benefitted me and or Meiz depending on Meiz scuminess?

Regarding my vote, I have not finished looking into who might have lead Lewwyn along day2, but Meiz was involved.
I started wondering why the wolves killed novice last night, I believe it could have been to create village credit for wolves having a town lean on novice. That coincides with Meiz EoN post as well as his early statement about being surprised about Rowain and me being RED.