WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Alhambram]

Re-evaluating game from start since I was wrong about AdrienIer and Lewwyn. Start over everthing from zero. Writing this since post #1463
10 players remains and with Cyneheard's depart due understanding reasons, the villagers suddenly can afford one more mislynch.

Rechecking every players based upon days.

Jabbz:
Day 1: little activity and parked vote upon Commodore in beginning, this gives him townie points because you shouldn't bus scum already at day 1. But Rowain points out that Jabbz seems suprised by traction (#1402).
Day 2: Explains why he voted for Commodore at day 2. And I got confused at end by Sunrise and Meiz pointing out factual errors, but re-reading clears things up.
Day 3: comes forward with 3 shot beholder role with breadcrumbs. Meiz rightfully called him out for lack of scumhunting. Voted for Lewwyn (I too).
Day 4: makes a case regarding Meiz's powers. Telling that Pindicator targeted Rowain is null tell because Pindicator himself did say that before deadline.

Verdict: unsure

Bobchillingworth

Day 1: makes remark about Gaspar's tone and rightfully calls out me for voting no-lynch and stayed upon it.
Day 2: Voted for novice based upon tally of day which is null read since thrawn turned out be traitor. Makes a good point that 4 (I, Jabbz, GES and Bob himself) votes are safe votes for scum.
Day 3: Voted for Pindicator based upon tally again, altough more argumetative.
Day 4: States that he is busy with RL, hence his low post tally.

Verdict: unsure, Also unknown role.

Gaspar

Day 1: Was bit agressive against Meiz till Sunrise called out him for it. Then went for thrawn but then switched to Commodore. Points out that Pindicator's day 1 is not good. Was planning to switch back to thrawn till Commodore made swing, ultimately Pindicator.
Gaspar's day 1 feels townish scumhunting, but he came across argessive to me in beginning of this WW.
Day 2: Parked vote at Commodore based upon day 1 and stayed there. And he kept making arguments through day 2 why he is still sitting upon Commodore when Lewwyn prodded him. Gaspar's day 2 seems fine.
Day 3: He starts off poking Cyneheard and wanted to see Lewwyn/Pindicator situation resolved. Haffway he is sidelined due RL reasons.
Day 4: short summary and wants to keep scumhunting.

Verdict: based upon day 1+2 votes I would say Gaspar town lean. But I don't argee with Gaspar calling out Cyneheard. Unsure now, lean town feel for him due day 1+2, but need to dive deeper at day 3. Also unknown role.

Pindicator

Day 1: Pindcator said that he didn't mind getting lynched day 1 and add to bucketlist, a lot self pity and woe as others pointed out.
Day 2: starts off bad with highfive, makes more contribution later and follows Lewwyn to vote Warriorknight.
Day 3: Supports Lewwyn and kept saying that we should vote him rather than Lewwyn. Even more contribution than before.
Day 4: GES confirms that Pindicator targetted Rowain. I feel that Pindicator is getting frustated, maybe take a break?

Verdict: I said in my post that it is likely that both Lewwyn and Pindicator is either scum or townie. Now Lewwyn turned out be townie, it looks better for Pindicator and even more since GES did confirm his visit. Slighty town lean for Pindicator for now.

Alhambram

Day 1: No good, little content due RL reasons and voted no lynch thinking that it is okay. I got explained by others why it isn’t good. Lesson learned and don’t do no-lynch vote anymore unless situation calls for it.
Day 2: Also relative little content at day 2, voted for Commodore early and was willing look elsewhere if someone was looking more scummy, but it didn’t happen.
At night when Commodore flipped scum, I made vote analysis for myself to track votes at day 1 and 2 and came to conclusion that Lewwyn, Pindicator, Commodore and AdrienIer were togeter.
Day 3: Sunrise reveals us as neighbors and both Warriorknight and AdrienIer (after getting shot) turned out be townies. I got feeling that I had to resolve Pindicator/Lewwyn case before going foward.
Day 4: writing this text and explaining bit situation about I and Sunrise in quicktopic.

Verdict: I didn’t do well at day 1 and 2, night 2 and onwards more content. Generally seen as less good one of two neighbors by others.

I don’t think that I am going particpate WW again met this many players. I undersitmated how much time it costs me. Also I have 6 hours free time at working days which I often spend upon RL stuffs. At work I can try get quick read or vote with Iphone but I don’t think that I am doing that anymore since I got called upon it when I was writing at Iphone around night 3 resolution.
In future I might only particpate smaller 9 player game instead.
Don’t worry Brick, I won’t quit this WW, I am playing this till end

Kaiser

Day 1: I got pretty good vibes in beginning from Kaiser, some questions around and then voting for thrawn. But his double voting for thrawn comes across as strange.
Day 2: Starts a arguments with Rowain and Novice which did carry over to day 3. Initally voted for Rowain and AdrienIer but jumps at Commodore last minute.
Day 3: Reveals his role claim and claims to visited Novice which can’t be verified. Keep bugging Rowain and then voted for Gaspar to see whether it gets traction.
Day 4: Claim to fakevisited Meiz. Interesting claim because Meiz did say that he lost power for good, need to dive more in this case.

Verdict: Unsure, fine first day except double posting. Then seems to bicker with Rowain too often across day 2 and 3, comes with power claim that we can’t verifiy and now fakeclaim visitng Meiz.

Sunrise

Day 1: Called out Gaspar for his reasoning against Meiz, scored a town points with doing things what people expects from a townie. Encouraging low post players to post more and prodding players. Votes for thrawn while calling Lewwyn’s push of thrawn scummy, tones down that at day 1 night.
Day 2: Majority of day RL stuff and then came back. Mentions in post #778 Gaspar as number 1 possible scum, but also considers Commodore, Pindicator and Jabbz as suspicions, voted for Commodore as 4th upon me after Meiz, Gaspar and me.
Day 3: Reveals our roles. With Commodore’s flip sees Gaspar less scummy and Lewwyn more. Votes for Pindicator and stayed there while willing switching to Lewwyn if someone else gains more votes. Keep asking Pindicator stuff, a plus townie points here.
Day 4: has yet to respond.

Verdict: Very town feeling here.

Gold Egro Sum

Day 1: parked early vote at Gaspar and stayed with him.
Day 2: Reveals his role, tracked Novice night 1. Post #686 and onward on day 2 from GES feels towny. Votes for Commodore.
Day 3: Votes for Lewwyn. And makes good comment at end of day to not talk too much in night.
Day 4: tracked Pindicator and confirmed that he visited Rowain and laid out his suspicions about Gaspar.

Verdict: Day 1 was little content but from day 2 onwards more townie feel.

Meiz

Day 1: Doing RP in beginning, at end of day 1 more Meiz as I did experience at WW47. Votes for Pindicator and at post #306 and #312 was first to consider possible connection between Lewwyn, Pindicator and Lewwyn.
Day 2: park Commodore vote early and didn’t change mind till end.
Day 3: Reveals his role. Thinks that resolving Lewwyn’s role is best way to go forward. Critizes Gaspar’s remarks about Cyneheard as first.
Day 4: Claims that his role is taken away. Need to look more into.

Verdict: For me he comes across as town days 1-3, but his role claim and at 4 it get taken away makes me think twice, need to dive more. Slight town lean for now.

Rowain

Day 1: Pretty townish, prods around and voted for thrawn.
Day 2: Makes his intention clear at start to vote Commdore, pokes around, firstly at Kaiser and afterwards AdrienIer. Night shot at AdrienIer, at that moment whose I also has bad vibe about. I think despite that AdrienIer turned out be townie, it was a good call from Rowain.
Day 3: Was more willing to vote for Pindicator then Lewwyn got a bad feeling, also checked maybe Gaspar train got traction.
Day 4: Calm and collected thoughts

Verdict: Looks very much town

[Rowain]

So I decided to fake the use of my power to disincentivize Wolves going for Meiz. Turns out I would have had something to see/or not to see last night, but I decided wrongly apparently.

I want you all to consider:
- What I have gained by claiming my role and the inheritance of Gazglums role?
- Why I would point out that I faked the visit instead of making something up that would have benefitted me and or Meiz depending on Meiz scuminess?

I don't doubt you got Gazglums power (or at least knowledge about it) I doubt your alignment. And as I said to Jabbz: You can't fake the use of your power at the last minute. That does nothing as scum needs time to see and act which there was not. You had to point it out as you wrote Meiz in bold in your post how else should it have been dis-incentivize the scum?

[Gaspar]

I'm not sure how I feel about the social distancing violation convention last night. Its extremely unlikely that Jabbz, Omar and Pindicator are all in cahoots because uh, if Kaiser's telling the truth about his role, he could have blown them all up. So I think its likely that Jabbz and Omar have the roles they say they have and that Pindicator did something which visited Rowain. Now, given Rowain is still alive, bodyguard is a plausible answer. There are other visitation roles that could go either way but like... Rowain already shot his shot, soooo why would a scum Pindicator visit Rowain for any reason other than to kill him?

The other two - eh? I mean tracking/watching roles are definitely both roles that can go either way. They're more useful for town but in a game where everyone has something, I would be surprised if Brick didn't give the scum some mechanism to figure out PRs. So I'm basically going full null on both of their roles.

In non-PR analysis workshopping, one of the things that I think changes as the game goes on is as the game goes, scum become less and less willing to paint anyone as scum because they don't want to alienate people to leave open the key votes they need to win. Early on, the opposite is true, because more candidates = more places to hide.

With that, I've sort of been reading everyone's state of the game posts with keen interest. The ones who seem extremely mild and unwilling to criticize read more scummy to me. In this case, Jabbz and Rowain both get some town cookies from me for stronger opinions, Bob gets null cookies from me for being himself and Alhambram and Omar get scum cookies from me, just by being so wishy-washy. Pindicator and Meiz are both obviously to some degree tilted, but I don't give a lean for that because you can tilt no matter your alignment. Also, if they're a scum team I'm never playing with either one of them again.

I think basically I would be unwilling to vote for Rowain or sunrise today. If I have to choose now, I think Kaiser still seems most likely scum because despite all the braying I still don't buy his role but I'd like to hear more than ranking posts from Bob, Alhambram and Omar.

[Alhambram]

Taking closer look at Kaiser/Meiz situation. Looking back at end of night 3:

-Kaiser posts and bolds Meiz's name indicating he he is going check him.
-Novice gets killed and Meiz quickly points out that Kaiser called Novice in his post.
-Then Meiz claims that his role has removed from him.
-Kaiser afterwards said that he faked tagreting by bolding Meiz as target.

About Kaiser's role, he claims having role backup and inheirted Gazglum's role. It sounds plausible but there is still doubts about his alignment, I feel that it is due Kaiser pushing Rowain and Novice starting at day 2 and kept doing at day 3. I also did consider Rowain fake claim vig shot using inheirted power from Thrawn, but there is one fault: in order to use poison, it has to be done day beforehand. Did wolves foresee at night 1 that AdrienIer would act scummy at day 2? That isn't plausible, so theory about fake vig claim from Rowain should be signed off and Rowain showed town vibes most the time. Kaiser used power one time at Novice which is null tell.

And what did Kaiser to influcene votes or our thoughts? His reason for voting at thrawn isn't strange since he did play at WW47 too and noticed difference, but strange thing here is voting twice. I don't recall that you ever explained why or did I miss your answer (sorry if I did that, I was rereading everthing from start). Afterwards he spends time with Rowain and Novice which I felt as wasteful effort, also his long texts didn't contribute and due time constraint he put late vote first at AdrienIer and then Commodore. More I reread his day 3, more I start like him, including seal of approval from Lewwyn at post #1305. One of few others actually trying thinking along with Lewwyn, Pindicator, Rowain and Sunrise at end of day 3 while others were absent or sitting till deadline ended. Big townie points for me here.


About Meiz's role, he claims that he is day vig which kills player without revealing alignment. I asked him to not use upon either Lewwyn or Pindicator because I felt that town needed information from their flip.
He answered that he wouldn't use till last day. Now after rereading Jabbz's post #1410, I feel that Jabbz got the point about risk of using it at day.
To avoid chance to misdirect at last day which would end game, Meiz has to use this day and suddenly he can't use it without town ever confirming whether his role is real or not.
It starts to feel more too concidence to have Meiz making his role claim and then claiming that his role has been removed, nobody in town can check it.

What about Meiz influcence upon votes day 1-3?
Looking back, Meiz was the one who started to tie knot between Lewwyn, Commodore and Pindicator at posts #306 and #312 at first day. At 1st day tally of post #210 thrawn got most votes, people already thought that his play was odd. Meiz then moves to Pindicator who that moment has 0 votes and succesfully start Pindicator train did drain votes away from thrawn train since it lost traction. When Lewwyn rehammers thrawn, Meiz accused Lewwyn in post #312 of creating a new lynch candidate besides Pindicator and Commodore. Wait a new candidate? Wasn't Thrawn top lynch candidate before at #210 with already vaild reason: players got not good feeling about thrawn at moment of #210. So can you really speak of new candidate? I would say renewed vote train but not entirely new.

Then Meiz spends time at N1 and Day 2 planting idea to lynch Lewwyn for example at post #498, #638, #743. Also talked further in night 2 despite agreeing with my remark that we should stop nighttalk at #944 and right after agreeing my remark he contradict himself by posting again at #945 suggesting that Lewwyn is being part of wolfthread. End of night 2 talk continued. Then day 3 started with most of  us voting for Lewwyn based upon Commodore.

I do feel very stupid myself now, letting led around like this. Orginally I did have good feel about Lewwyn (see my post #501 and #724). But when Commdore flipped red, I was like: aha Meiz has been right about Commodore/Pindicator/Lewwyn. At that moment I also has him as town and I did trust him, partitally based upon his WW47 play. Then I did make vote analysis based upon this assument instead doing proper playerread. I didn't feel confident about my reading skill since it is my 2nd WW ever and I used fact that Commodore flipped red as easy pathway to navigate who did Commodore vote with etc. As result I only got more confident that team Lewwyn/Commodore/Pindicator is correct guess. I should have realized that Warriorknight's death don't make sense for Lewwyn being wolf, my eyes was blinded and I crawled in tunnel deeply. Kudos for non Lewwyn voters for realizing this.

And end of 3rd day votes for Gaspar suddenly got traction, it was caused by him roughing up Cyneheard. But what was Gaspar doing? Answer he did actual scumhunting, his style might be rough but at least he didn't sit around till end like Meiz did at day 3 altough Gaspar also thought that Lewwyn is most likely candidate. It was Meiz who called Gaspar's pressure at Cyneheard scummy as first (#1257), not Lewwyn who posted al lot content why he thinks Gaspar should be lynched next or Pindicator who promised 100% Gaspar vote at (#1335).

And now Meiz did reread of day 1-2 of Gaspar (#1381) where he declares him town but not 3rd day where Meiz did accuse him being scum. And I do wonder why Meiz didn't comment day 3 right away (next is my speculation) and gnawing sounds in back of my head thinks that Meiz is willing wait till there is some traction of Gaspar vote train. When Gaspar train leaves station then Meiz jumps in argumenting that he has been right about Gaspar being scum based upon his post #1257.
And now Meiz is wooing Gaspar, calling him a townie based upon day 1 and 2 while Meiz seems forget that day 3 did exist where he did critize Gaspar.

Then 4th day when Novice dies, Meiz seemingly push quicky to Kaiser. I start getting Warriorknight vibes here, Warriorknight's death was used to vote upon Lewwyn. Kaiser has issues with Novice since day 2 together with Rowain, if Novice get nightkilled, it is almost natural to gaze eyes upon Kaiser. I get bad feeling from Meiz here combined with his role claim and claim that his alibity got earsed without able to verify it.

Vote for Meiz it is.

[Jabbz]

I don't recall anyone thinking the power was stolen, I just assumed removed was a permanent block.

Stolen as in permanently gone.

I've just been informed by GM that my power has been ripped off, so I will be unable to proof anything. A nice power by the villains I suspect.

I guess I'm thinking of stolen as taken and in possession of someone else. No big, were talking about the same thing with different words.

[BRickAstley]

Tally
3 votes: Kaiser (Bobchillingworth, Gaspar, Rowain)
2 votes: Meiz (pindicator, Jabbz)

I am on vacation and brought my laptop but forgot the charging cord. Can you keep doing the vote tallies and everyone else just double check them?

[Alhambram]

Tally
4 votes: Kaiser (Bobchillingworth, Gaspar, Rowain, Meiz)
4 votes: Meiz (pindicator, Jabbz, Kaiser, Alhambram)

[pindicator]

Kaiser, what was your purpose in faking a Meiz breadcrumb?

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Omar is not willing to vote Old Tea Man, Bee-Boy, or Talking Dog today.  Omar has them all way more likely to be villagers than average.

Any of the other six players Omar would assign at least a slightly more likely than average read to be villains, just because somebody got to be.

Omar's main concern, though, is of the three people Omar feel comfortable about, one is voting Robot, one is voting Skelly, and one is in the wind.

Of the remaining players, the one Omar feel most confident lynching is Robot.  Omar found generally odd and inconsistent play from him on D1 and D2, and nothing since has been less concerning.  Not only is there the odd claim to have used his role on Skelly, which was then dropped when Skelly needed the confirmation only Robot's role could provide, Omar also note that at post 1,379 he says Skelly and sunrise are his most heavy town leans, and then after Skelly votes him in post 1,480, Kaiser then changes tune and votes Skelly.  That makes no sense if Robot was so convinced Skelly was a villager that he supposedly faked the use of his ability to protect him overnight, although he set ups the waffle with the beware GrandMaMeiz bit.

Unlike Doc and Weeb Fox who give their reads like they came down from on high engraved on a granite tablet, Omar learned a lot from playing in some high stakes cards games.  That game  not black and white, and this here game shades of gray too.  Omar thinks in probabilities.  Old Tea Man not a villager--he is 95% likely to be a villager.  Only person Omar has more than a 50% villain read on right now is Robot at 60-65% (baseline should be 33.3%).  Right now, that's as good as Omar got.

Side note, Omar don't see how Robot and Skelly can both be villains unless they were extremely sloppy.  Hard to imagine Robot would not have claimed to use his ability on Skelly and "verify" the roll loss if it was some kind of villain duo-scheme.  But going back and saying he did not actually use his ability at all under the duo-villain situation--nearly impossible to imagine.

Robot

[sunrise089]

What an abject disaster today has been. I mentioned above I flew to NoVA to take care of some personal business. The most pressing part was picking up my car which had been ‘stranded’ in a university parking garage since my stay in FL got vastly extended due to coronavirus quarantines. Since then my parking pass had expired and so I needed to move the car and pick up my new pass before I was bankrupted with $100 parking tickets. I got the car last night and decided to visit a friend while I was up here before returning to FL.



Yay, good call sunrise. Good thing you didn’t leave the car where it was, that would have been expensive. 

Anyways I’ll get caught up and at least make a vote...