WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Rowain]

I get the feeling like on last day scum is leaning back and let us villagers happily lynch each other.

[Meiz]

My next step is to take a look at kaiser voters today. I've reread Bob's posts and at least found his piling on suspicious.

[Meiz]

On Kaiser, after re-reading his posts I find the role reveal to look credible, as him knowing for a fact that Gazglum was town, I could see why he would be spending energy on figuring out if scumwould first hide Gazglum's role and then try to misdirect town based on the idea. So I get a towny feeling from his play and evolvment of reads from there.

[Meiz]

I still don't like Pind's play to attack Gaspar today, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754891
Feels more like using Lewwyn's and others suspicions from yesterday to get Gaspar killed, than taking a closer look at Gaspar's play from D1 that have some strong indications which would point away from scum-Gaspar.

@Pind, you're saying that do not give credit for D2 commodore voters, but D1 commodore voters point to town. Why Gaspar does not get this credit?

I also don't like his immediate reaction against me, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754902
He starts to imediately paint me in bad light again due to tunneling. I haven't at any point mentioned that I have to vote him today, instead my end of night post is about looking for town players and potential scum's besides Pind.

[Meiz]

You know what, I'm done with making excuses for Meiz to myself.  I refuse to believe he's THAT stubborn as town. It has to be a facade. He has to be exaggerating his normal self unintentionally to sound town.

He was calling Lewwyn scummy for defending me day 1 before the day was done because he wanted to vote Commodore.
Day 2 he's on Commodore early and often but I'm again scummy. But he won't really look out build cases elsewhere.
Day 3 he should be voting for me but he's being stubborn again and just sitting on Lewwyn. I'm begging him to vote me, but he thinks I'm scum trying to save his scum buddy. Now he thinks I'm scum for it anyway.
Today he hasn't even voted yet despite his list. Waiting to see where the winds blow?

I agree with Gaspar's last post that there's an uber-wolf. Personally, I think wolves all decided to vote each other early D1 and whomever stuck would be lynched to the credit of the rest of them.

They're going to all just shrug their shoulders and go down the list. I don't understand Rowain's and Meiz's 180 on Gaspar today.

This game has been tainted for me for a while now. So fuck it, I'm voting Meiz until one of us is dead

"He was calling Lewwyn scummy for defending me day 1 before the day was done because he wanted to vote Commodore. "
Lewwyn was hammering thrawn and taking the lynch away from scum-Commodore. Additionally he ignored a read on you that was very similiar to what he was accusing thrawn of. This is the reason I found his play suspicious.

"Day 2 he's on Commodore early and often but I'm again scummy. But he won't really look out build cases elsewhere. "
I'm pretty sure I had more reads on D2 than you&Commodore. But if you take a look at how D1 ended (my answer above), I did have the same though of scum-Lewwyn pushing lynch away from Commodore and ignoring the accusations against your play.

"Day 3 he should be voting for me but he's being stubborn again and just sitting on Lewwyn. I'm begging him to vote me, but he thinks I'm scum trying to save his scum buddy. Now he thinks I'm scum for it anyway."
Yes I was very committed on getting Lewwyn's alignment resolved, due to the points mentioned above. I found it even more improtant than voting you, because I felt Lewwyn spent D3 throwing shade agaisnt most people, and I did not find his accusations believable, because the accusations were all colored by viewing everything that player does as scummy behavior.

[Meiz]

Meiz: Moderate scum lean. Given that there was a scum rollblocker, it's not completely unreasonable there should be a town one. Given that there was either a town roll that hid info on death in order to pass the roll along to another townie, or a scum roll that hid information upon kill, its not impossible that town could have something similar. I find it unlikely though. If gaz's ability hid his roll so his inheritor could get that information, that ultimately helps town to some degree. It preserves the cover for the inheritor, but also puts the inheritor under suspicion. Net win somehwat for town. If the killer had an ability to hide the alignment and role, that's a solid scum role. 

What Meiz is claiming is a town ability that's ultimately largely anti-town. Combined with the timing of his loss of said ability, and no one claiming the deed to this point, I find that problematic in the extreme. Should someone claim it, I'd be inclined to believe them, as scum already lost a roleblocker. This would also greatly reduce my suspicion of Meiz. Until that point he remains my most suspicious.

Meiz

To your b point, yeah I was just trying to provide an example of valid deception. To your a however, I hadn't thought about that actually.

That could be quite helpful. If Kaiser swings, and noone steps up to claim roleblocker (which at this point would be kinda strange) then the only scenario I see that fits is Scum kaiser visiting scum meiz. 

TBH though I'm expecting someone to parse my post and tell me what I screwed up

I think Meiz never had that specific ability. I think he made it up from scratch as a cover. If a townie were to come out and say "hey, actually I took it from him, my role is X, then it would certainly ease most of my concerns regarding it. Always the possibility a scum does it, but then that presents its own problems, and its likely better for scum to let meiz swing than risk getting another verified.

I don't recall anyone thinking the power was stolen, I just assumed removed was a permanent block.

As to gaz, we're talking about basically the thing, I'm just phrasing it poorly. If a townie did indeed receive his roll as a inheritor, then I could see the role info being blocked.

I guess I'm thinking of stolen as taken and in possession of someone else. No big, were talking about the same thing with different words.

1) Scum roleblocker, and the ability to remove a role are very different things. Therefore we are not talking about duplicate roles in this case. I think thre's a 0% chance that town player would have removed my role.

2) What do you think of my post how Kaiser's play doesn't make that much sense for a scum? https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755231

3) Voting me just because you think GM wouldn't give this type of role to a town is what results in bad lynches. Yes, I see you changed your view (me lying about the power) but I just have to get this out once again.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Omar just woke up and hasn’t read the overnight stuff yet.

Old Tea Man, Omar strongly believe you’re a villager. Omar think we should coordinate votes so I’m willing to go where you go to at least give us a village voting bloc. Right now, you and Talking Dog are on Robot.

[Meiz]

Continuing on the read for Bob, as I was not able to finish it earlier.

Bob
Once more an interesting point from Rowain, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753449

Generally speaking Bob seems to be playing in his own bubble with the vote analyses and votes (for example the one on novice, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753338). Did Bob ever comment or adjust based on novice's reply (https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753354)? I can't recall.

Anyway, it feels strange to see him have such a strong opinion to brake Kaiser accusation, while at the same time getting a feeling of him needing to paint Rowain in bad light.
He also doesn't seem to like the idea of Commodore lynching, though suggests Vig shooting him.

Posts this later, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753538
- Besides stating that ok with Commodore lynch, does not seem to dig into details why Commodore is the lynch, on points that would make him scum.

Finally votes Commodore while bringing a new specific read on damning him, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753545
Which is later switched back to novice, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753582

Had this read on him from D1 on vote reason against Gaspar, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid752625

Bob was voting novice and the vote tally was:

4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, WarriorKnight)
2 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser, Commodore)
2 votes: Kaiser/Isaac (Rowain, novice)
2 votes: WarriorKnight/Statler & Waldorf (Lewwyn, Pindicator)
1 votes: Alhambram/Homer Simpson (AdrienIer)
1 votes: novice/Carrie Mathison (Bobchillingworth)
1 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Cyneheard)

GES votes Adrien, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753658

Adrien votes WK, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753660

Making the tally:

4 votes: Commodore/Flipper (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, WarriorKnight)
3 votes: WarriorKnight/Statler & Waldorf (Lewwyn, Pindicator, AdrienIer)
2 votes: Rowain/Uncle Iroh (Kaiser, Commodore)
2 votes: Kaiser/Isaac (Rowain, novice)
2 votes: AdrienIer/Ron Swanson (Cyneheard, GES)
1 votes: novice/Carrie Mathison (Bobchillingworth)

Adrien's vote switch prompts Bob to switch his vote against Adrien, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid753673
Now putting both WK & Adrien as running candidate next to Commodore. That's his last post for D2.

I think Bob's D2 fits as potential scumbuddy for Commodore.

D3.

Votes Pind, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754184

Questions Jabbz, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754293


D4, votes Kaiser, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid754959
- If Kaiser is town, the piling on against him looks suspicious to me.

List of players & D3 events, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755144

Almost Certainly Village:

Pindicator

Yeah, okay, so I was voting for him Day 3, so what?  George has a right to change his mind!  I'm asserting it, Jerry!!  Specifically, unless I'm missing something about how they resolved, as GES pointed out in his analysis Pin is almost certainly telling the truth about his role and his night action yesterday, and though I hate to dive into meta analysis here (I HATE it, Jerry!  Well, maybe not that much...), what would the point of a scum bodyguard possibly be?  Even the wiki says having one would make "little sense".  So Pin's more-or-less cleared then, I think, unless he's part of a coordinated scum team with, uh, I guess GES and Jabbz?  That doesn't sound very likely to me!  

The analysis doesn't consider the possibility that Pind could be lying about his role, and still visit Rowain, so I feel Pind goes to Almost certainly villager too easily.

Kaiser

I already explained my thinking in a post yesterday, but Kaiser's actions in the last day or so have been both strange and scummy, and I think his role claim is dubious! He certainly hasn't been giving off significant village vibes, and I'm all about vibes, Jerry!  I'm a true Vibe Man!  Wait, that sounded strange, STRIKE IT FROM THE RECORD!  

I also don't like the general phrasing of Kaiser's play as strange and scummy. These type of general arguments are very easy to make as a wolf.

Well, maybe not NO useful inferences: I think at least a couple scum helped push Lew through.  They colluded, Jerry!  Did they do so just to be rid of Lew, or also to save Gaspar?  Beats me!  I'd guess Meiz and Alhambram from the list, but really any of them could make sense!  And then maybe scum Kaiser helping spread votes out a little by being on Gaspar!

I also don't get a feeling he is considering the game as a whole to base his reads on, just throwing out names based on D3 events.

[Rowain]

My next step is to take a look at kaiser voters today. I've reread Bob's posts and at least found his piling on suspicious.

So far you have posted about Meiz-voters was the Kaiser part an error ?

[Rowain]

More exactly: Lets say you and Kaiser are both town why would Scum rather lynch Kaiser than you?