WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Meiz]

@Meiz - the bob train seems super sudden and semi-random. The case is just ‘onto posts lists and never voted near deadline so his vote can never swing things’?

Well, this is the case I've put up, https://www.realmsbeyond.net/forums/show...#pid755250

I think everyone else is just following. I feel like I've had to do the digging today, I guess understandable if I'm on the block but today has felt very lazy on scum hunting part.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

Someone post a total? I'm cooking my breakfast after walking the dog and don't want to caught pulling a Bob and leaving a vote that doesn't do anything

Omar kind of giggle at this since it appears Jerry! may still be leaving a vote that doesn't do anything even when his head on the chopping block.

[sunrise089]

@pindicator, 1413 - what do you mean there about protecting Meiz? Didn’t you protect Rowain?

@pindicator - you talked today about one reason you wanted to die before Lewwyn. I asked you about this late day 3 and you said you’d say the full reason post-game. I know there’s no vote pressure on you now but I don’t love you withholding part of that reason.

1413 i had to go and reread because that didn't make sense. I think I just mixed up my subjects when typing that out.

For your second question, I don't love it either. Best answer i can give you without upsetting Brick is that I don't want to upset Brick.

I don't know if I catch up in reading before deadline. I'm supposed to leave right at deadline and have a lot to do to get ready. Will post as I go

Wait a sec. Look at 1415. Here you don’t mess up - you soften and say you scum had to consider MAY have been protecting Meiz. So in 1413 you weren’t messing up your subjects...the whole point there was Meiz was unlikely to be making up his role-removal claim since they’d fear protection. If you meant Rowain there and not Meiz your defense of Meiz makes no sense.

[Kaiser]

Taking a nice walk outside helped clearing the head, I still think that one of my 3 remaining theories is likely.
I also still believe it unlikely that the wolves messed Day1 so badly up, that they ended up having 2 wolves on the chopping block together with thrawn the traitor.

So back to my running theory right now.
The wolves either planned from the beginning or decided Midway Day1 that they would try to use Lewwyn to do the heavy lifting and then lynch him later after he had managed to lynch at least one villager.
At the same time they were willing to sacrifice Commodore to gain town credit for probably at least 2 wolves and Lewwyn on Day2 so the Lewwyn train could run longer but with hopefully more collateral among the village.

So I am assuming to find 2-3 wolves among the Commodore lynchers of Day2.
10 votes: Commodore/Flipper  (Meiz, Gaspar, Alhambram, sunrise089, novice, WarriorKnight, Jabbz, Gold Ergo Sum, Rowain, Kaiser)

They were likely presenting a good case here, as they wanted their town credit as high as possible. I believe Lewwyn was supposed to be here as well, but followed a different target and was then ultimately set up for the next lynch on Day3. I am less confident to find two wolves here as well, as the Lewwyn setup was well done and I believe the wolves would like to spread out after gaining town credit on Day2.
6 votes: Lewwyn/Retsuko (Meiz, Gold Ergo Sum, novice, Jabbz, Alhambram, Gaspar)

So let us look at above players on Day2 with special regard on how they behaved towards Commodore and Lewwyn:
Meiz:
Started early by using already the night to ask people on their opinion on Commodore (#475 (pindicator), #507, #509 (AdrienIer) or critizices them on it #539 (Jabbz)). Also starts buddying up with Lewwyn (#443 and #550). Spends an early vote on Commodore explaining his case to other people. Also poked a bit in direction of Lewwyn, AdrienIer, Alhambram, Pindicator and Jabbz that day. However he left his vote all day long on Commodore.
Noteworthy to me was definetively the #573 follow rowain on commodore vote and the discussion between Jabbz, Rowain and Meiz around #635, #637 defending Rowain.

Sunrise089:
Had a rough Day in RL, questions Lewwyn early and then starts reading in around #759. Noteworthy are his leans from #778 (town lean: Meiz, Rowain. Scum lean: Commodore Pindicator). Seems convinced on Commodore and votes him in #780, follow up discussions with Commodore around a role reveal and some discussions with Jabbz in the end.

Rowain:
Starts Night1 a bit on pindicator but then finishes it with his #529 lynch pindi -> lynch comm reasoning I was griping with a lot early. Points out that Gaspar was a main pusher on Comm Day1. Surprisingly starts the #552+ Day2 wit the first vote on Comm instead of pindicator as discussed before. List in #571, town lean Meiz, sunrise, would lynch anyone besides Gaspar and Novice. Receives a small attack from kaiser for his #569, switches onto Kaiser #599 for voting twice before deadline. Special mention #648 points away from the discussiong revolving around Gazglum. He checked some people during the day, but standing out to me is the Lewwyn, Rowain Commodore interaction in #884 where Lewwyn specifically asks Rowain if he is sitting on the sideline to switch onto Commodore. He finally switches to Commodore stating that he was his preferred target all along #909 (at least the one he wished for)

Gaspar:
Early on commodore #574, list in #608 confirms his Day1 comm suspicion including his willingness to switch to thrawn if Comm would not have switched. #626 gives negative example on why Comm should be town (meaning Comm is scum). Buddies up with Rowain #646, #627. Diversifies as landslide D2 is bad for town. #762 criticizes Lewwyn for pointing out that Meiz stayed all day long on Comm (interestingly he did too). Points that Lewwyn might be scum when wrong with Comm. This seems to be mostly in defense against Lewwyn. #864 is a strong argument why he wants to lynch Comm

GES:
Night1 hunch on comm (and pindi being scum). Promises a later write up early, points out that a Lewwyn, Comm, Pindicator Scum train is unlikely. #686 role claim tracker and his big promised list. Not yet convinced that comm and/or pindi are scum. Lewwyn suspect unless both turn up villains. Questions Gaspar on his town reads (Novice, Lewwyn, Meiz). Again states in 2nd list that the odds were very unlikely to have Lewwyn, Comm and Pindi scum, checks into the other players to get some more value out of it. Finally votes Comm as neither Jabbz or Adrien were getting enough traction in #900

Jabbz:
Dislikes how his absence supported Comm train, challenges Rowain to explain his comm + pindicator lynch case. Gripes early with Rowain and the fact that they both were voting Commodore. #690 he is still not following comm logic, asks Commodore to reveal himself, points out that Meiz and Rowain were stuck on Commodore. #704 points to Rowain that he is parking his vote on Kaiser to then later switch to Commodore. #893 vote Commodore after re-reading him and finding that he is comfortable voting with the others.

Alhambram:
Commodore scummy due to low activity. Votes Commodore for the scumbuddy joke. Finds comms roleplaying irritating. Got back a couple times to questions from Lewwyn. #724 Comm suspicious, Meiz and Lewwyn town (and others). Does not switch his vote in the end.

In the end all these people picked up on Comm being scum, which has been good work. However I think there are 2-3 wolves here as well wanting to leverage this day into town leans, that means they need to have a good argument to create credibility.
I see the players like this:
Strong argument, convincing others and heavy vote on Comm:
- Meiz
- Gaspar
being suspicious of Comm:
- Sunrise
- Rowain (might be even the above category as several players had the impression he was just switching away onto me)
Questioning the comm train but being convinced:
- Jabbz
- GES
Picking Comm as the best alternative:
- Alhambram
- Kaiser
Not voting Comm
- Bob


I believe the wolves were not banking everything on this though, so I assume they spread out over the voters. I think the most likely will be 1 wolf each in the top two categories (Meiz, Gaspar, Sunrise, Rowain) and one among the rest.


Lewwyn launches onto thrawn on #728 for an inconsistency
- Gaspar reacts quickly that he reads him more as lazy than scummy resulting in some discussion about Bias
- Pindicator jumps WK on post #737 for vote justification and Lewwyns case
- Meiz questions in #743 if Lewwyn, Comm, Pindi are a scum team. Lewwyn reacts in #749 and then they discuss about leaving your vote all day long. Gaspar joins this in #762 for lazy analysis of Lewwyn
- Adrien joins in #757, Meiz immediately questions him Lewwyn seems to be gone to bed
- Meiz sees WK town lean in #768
- Lewwyn comes back in #796 connecting Gaspar and WK, votes Gaspar in #807
- Lewwyn thinks not all wolves are on Commodore #812
- #813 Lewwyn would consolidate on Gaspar or WK
- #816 tells Gaspar that he is stuck on Commodore and votes WK again
- #817 rowain prods Lewwyn on the other two wolvse besides Gaspar and WK
- #830 Meiz has read WarriorKnight 2 times already and does not want to change
- #839 Lewwyn checks Rowain for his thoughts on the EoD
- #840 Gaspar defends with Lewwyns play is lazy, #846 Lewwyn challenges Gaspar on this, #854 Gaspar criticizes that Lewwyn is just opposing but not following through
- #842 Meiz checks Lewwyn for his town read on Adrien, #844 Gaspar answers that Lewwyn has confirmation Bias #848 feels opinion swings are normal for village
- #853 Lewwyn points out to meiz that Gaspar is tying himself to him
- #858 Meiz questions Lewwyn for his refusal on Comm scum, #868 Lewwyn gets back to him

I have to stop here to check the current situation, but I see my feeling confirmed that mostly Meiz and Gaspar were discussing with Lewwyn here potentially prodding him along.

So in sum, my current leans from this and other events are:
Top suspects:
- Meiz
- Gaspar

Quite suspect:
- Rowain
- Jabbz

suspect:
- GES
- Alhambram
Bob

Uncertain:
- sunrise (I had a town lean before and feel him missing out on most of the day is not beneficial to my analysis)

Town lean:
- Pindicator (I just find it difficult to believe that wolves mess up so badly on day1)

[Gaspar]

In my case, I think I'm most comfortable with my three town reads. I'm trying to sort the rest out from there. Not that I'm trusting their cases, but rather as a means of narrowing the rest down. Basically, 1 of Jabbz/GES is scum and then the other two are from Bob, Kaiser, sunrise, Alhambram, with my suspicions in that order and sunrise and Alhambram not both being able to be scum.

[sunrise089]

I think the PM stuff is borderline too metagameys, same as the talk about tmes wwhen I've received a PM from the GM etc.

Pind's vote change switches things. I was starting to get a bit paranoid on sunrise waiting someone to put me at 5 votes, before he will switch away from Kaiser to Bob.

Well then thanks for agreeing to push him before, friend

Are you happy with me or unhappy with me for not joining on bob earlier? I don’t understand the paranoid comment...don’t you WANT me on bob??

[sunrise089]

@pindicator - I mean, yeah, you, Jabbz, Gold isn’t exactly unbelievable.

@Meiz - the bob train seems super sudden and semi-random. The case is just ‘onto posts lists and never voted near deadline so his vote can never swing things’?

Yes it seems but do you say those 5 voters are scum? Who of them?

Well in that scenario, in response to pind, it would be pind and Gold, kinda obviously I’d have thought...

[Meiz]

I think the PM stuff is borderline too metagameys, same as the talk about tmes wwhen I've received a PM from the GM etc.

Pind's vote change switches things. I was starting to get a bit paranoid on sunrise waiting someone to put me at 5 votes, before he will switch away from Kaiser to Bob.

Well then thanks for agreeing to push him before, friend

Are you happy with me or unhappy with me for not joining on bob earlier? I don’t understand the paranoid comment...don’t you WANT me on bob??

I was starting to get paranoid because I would be then first to 5 votes, and losing the tiebreak, and in that case your vote on Bob would still result in me dying. So I started to feel you are playing time with your vote.

[sunrise089]

Anyone want to join on Gaspar who had been as AFK as me and who had been posting listicles?

[Rowain]

@pindicator - I mean, yeah, you, Jabbz, Gold isn’t exactly unbelievable.

@Meiz - the bob train seems super sudden and semi-random. The case is just ‘onto posts lists and never voted near deadline so his vote can never swing things’?

Yes it seems but do you say those 5 voters are scum? Who of them?

Well in that scenario, in response to pind, it would be pind and Gold, kinda obviously I’d have thought...

Who would be your 3rd wolf?