WW48: Melllvar's Grand Competition!

[Meiz]

I assume Pindicator dies protecting someone, right? Not that he was directly targeted.

[Meiz]

Also Meiz, why is my townread of you binding when your scum read of pindicator DURING DAY 4 was so non-binding that you stated during N4 that I am scummy for my pindicator vote?

Pindicator had no reason to switch from me to Bob if he was scum. Therefore I realized he was probably town afterall.

[sunrise089]

- During the day there is discussions on why Kaiser's claim doesn't make sense for a wolf, and on how Gaspar's D1 doesn't make sense for a wolf. These reads do not seem to affect your views on these players as I don't recall any comments on them.

Bolding mine. Please see:

So final town case word on Kaiser night ability lie is he was hoping wolves would think he was out of charges, not expecting they’d actually target Meiz. And that somehow he just confused himself that it would do some sort of partial protection when by timing that part was impossible. That where we are?

And case for town Meiz in that exchange is scum Meiz wouldn’t have risked the claim since town-Kaiser could say no one visited him?

And case against then both as scum is if both scum they’d never not coordinate and have Kaiser not breadcrumb? Unless as Gaspar says they just didn’t coordinate?

[sunrise089]

Also Meiz, why is my townread of you binding when your scum read of pindicator DURING DAY 4 was so non-binding that you stated during N4 that I am scummy for my pindicator vote?

Pindicator had no reason to switch from me to Bob if he was scum. Therefore I realized he was probably town afterall.

Sunrise had no reason to vote Commodore early when a Gaspar vote would have made perfect sense. Therefore I realized...he bussed Commodore! Because only Meiz's targets are never bussed. 

[sunrise089]

Meiz I am tilting a bit at this point and so I apologize for being snotty here. I know you think you have a wolf and so you're being persistent. I know, on the margin, my D4 was scummier than your D4. But if you're town I beg you to stop over-fitting every piece of evidence into your worldview here or else dismissing it entirely.

[Meiz]

I'm just laying out how I think last day went and how IMO it would fit with you & Bob in a team.

I'm also not buying your view on how scum-sunrise would go after me:

Question for you though Gaspar - “Unfortunately, Meiz sniffed that out and you ended up looking scummy either way” - I still don’t understand really why scum sunrise wouldn’t just vote him then. Or vote him much earlier. Why does scum sunrise go Kaiser to pressure and not Meiz to pressure or even as an outright read under “that role claim and narrative is scummy?” Do you think it’s realistic as scum I’d think no one would notice that I wasn’t on either of the top two vote getters? Rowain says above it could be seen as bad town because it’s overly-defensive (that assumes one has roughly equal reads on the vote candidates which isn’t the case here, but anyways) but I still don’t see the play as scum aside from a lens of “everyone Meiz has an intuition on is scum out to get Meiz.”

scum-sunrise wouldn't vote me earlier, because of his earlier town read on me, and Kaiser being the other option. I do not think this is a point in your favor. You would have no way to know that scum.Bob will become a lynch candidate later.

But like I said earlier, I think your best bet is to layout your case in full detail on who is better lynch than you today and why.

[sunrise089]

I assume Pindicator dies protecting someone, right? Not that he was directly targeted.

Setting aside our own fight for a sec, I think he was more likely directly targeted. Unless I missed it he didn't say who he was protecting, so scum would probably assume something like 50/50 you and Rowain. That's pretty risky. Hitting pindicator 1) is safer for getting their kill through; and 2) makes me look bad. Note if you're town this sequence of events did not help:

@Meiz - when do you think it makes sense to discuss Bob ability connotations? Now, a bit before deadline, or right at it?

Take a break from the game, I know I will.

If Gaspar is town (as I strongly believe) and Pindicator is town, sunrise's play starts to look very different.

I feel after seeing that message from you six hours before the deadline it's very plausible that made them move to hitting pindicator. BTW pindicator is a TERRIBLE kill for scum sunrise for the same reason. See: Lewwyn/WK, N2.

[sunrise089]

Meiz, I have no idea who's a better candidate than me. I mean...everyone?! I guess not Rowain - Rowain seems so town that even me at 100% town is probably less valuable to village than Rowain.

I'll try to spell out cases on you, Gaspar, and Alhambram - I'll commit to that alongside parts 3 & 4 of my manifesto. But part of my argument is Kaiser, Jabbz, Alhambram, Gold, and Day-3 on Gaspar have done so little it's hard to build cases if "aren't trying to find scum" isn't one of the criteria.

[sunrise089]

Meiz,  if you are town, I feel like you should be able to do the following as like an affirmation exercise: "I know that all players can have their reads change, not just me. Just because Rowain wanted to vote pindicator D3 if Comm flipped scum, or pindicator wanted to vote Gaspar at the start of D4, doesn't mean those players' actions were deterministically predicable ex-ante based on those reads, any more than my own were. I don't have a monopoly on being able to revise my opinions."

[Meiz]

Pindicator's ability wouldn't stop the kill from going through, it would just kill Pindicator instead of the attempted target.